That just kind of feels like where things are at these days, NC State fans want things to go one way, and it goes another much more sour way.

Anyway, so uh, there’s a game happening this weekend, apparently? I guess, just a rumor. Who knows if anyone will even show up. Man, mid-season firings are so weird.

Cal is 3-5 (2-3), while NC State is 3-4 (1-3). Somehow still, NC State is a 9.5 point favorite in this game. Vegas must know something we don’t. Cal might not be good, but the Pack have not shown to be much of any better.

Let’s just get to the picks.

(edit: my description didn’t match my score prediction, which is flipped from an L previously. What can I say, I’m a hopeless romantic.)

Everyone’s just checked out of this season to the point that Jackson just nope’d out of doing these picks, I guess. Will the Pack win another game this year? We’ll see. I mean, I won’t see, it’s Halloween and your boy is all kinds of busy with all that entails. Stay safe out there, enjoy your spooky day.

Dave Doeren was hired at NC State in the winter of 2012. Since he’s been the head coach, I have graduated high school, graduated college, met my wife, worked at the same company for six years, worked at a different company, bought a house, and am expecting a child. It’s crazy how long it’s been.

Perhaps Doeren’s most underrated achievement was his ability to remain polarizing for seemingly all fourteen years of his tenure, even despite his relatively stoic public persona. From the slow build at the beginning to the meat of the tenure to the falling action, everybody was always ready to argue about Dave Doeren. Now, 5,079 days since the hiring was announced, the dust can finally settle on that . . . probably . . . not.

I believe that Dave’s time in Raleigh deserves to age gracefully. The criticisms of the recent teams were valid, and the budding incongruity of the staff’s strengths with the sport’s evolution (or devolution) is justification enough to see the need for change. But those things aren’t mutually exclusive. Both can be true. Doeren was hired to do a specific job, and he did it well. Eventually, that job changed, and then it didn’t go as well.

Dave Doeren’s time in Raleigh can be broken into three parts.

1. 2013-2016: The Rebuild

2. 2017-2023: The Height

3. 2024-2026: The Falling Action

The Rebuild

Dave Doeren was one of the only active head coaches in America who had turned over a roster at his current school with a 3-4 year rebuild. The idea of a coach’s “first senior class” is completely alien in 2026, but this was how it started. Graduate transfers were just then coming into vogue, and Doeren was active in the not-yet-portal, but State did have to cycle through an entire four years to get a full roster rebuild.

His first seniors came in 2016, which was clearly his best team yet, but a team that imploded its way to a 5-6 record. It’s pretty well documented that he would have been fired if he finished 5-7, but his lapdog in UNC was always ready to capitulate. State wrapped that season with the momentum of two noteworthy wins, but Doeren was still 9-23 in the ACC, a statistic that is used against him to this day. It was, however, the launch of a stretch of competitiveness in the ACC that State hadn’t reached in decades.

The Height

The first real senior class was the next year in 2017, and that was a good football team. From there through 2023, NC State won 70% or more of its ACC games in four of seven seasons. During those seven years, Doeren’s ACC record was 35-23, and that includes the statistical outlier of the 1-7 season in 2019. To find four total seasons with an ACC winning percentage of 70+% prior to 2017, you have to go back to 1986.

State found itself as a legitimate contender for the ACC in 2017, 2021, and 2023, all years when it was 7 points or less from a win that would have propelled it to the title game. In 2018 and 2020, it fell seven total points shy of two bids to New Year’s Six bowl games (remember those?). I don’t frame these as non-victory victories or some sort of moral accomplishment. The point is to illustrate the new level at which the program was operating.

There was no significant change in access to talent that drove this elevation to consistent contender. It was simply a better process of finding, evaluating, and developing players. A share of noteworthy recruiting wins garnished the roster with names like Kentavius Street, Nyheim Hines and Payton Wilson. But for every one of those, there was a Bradley Chubb, a Jaylen Samuels, a Garrett Bradbury, a BJ Hill, and an Isaiah Moore. Even beyond those, there were tons of names that weren’t stars, but were usable, reliable pieces that built the rest of the roster. Guys like Tyler Baker-Williams, Jaylon Scott, and Joe Sculthorpe.

Doeren’s hit rate on “at or above projected” was the defining feature of the best parts of his tenure. He elevated the program in exactly the way that NC State had to do it. It was never going to level up in that era without establishing an in-state funnel and doing more with less. At a bare minimum, this success should be acknowledged.

Many of the line-burner losses that proved prohibitive during this stretch will haunt State fans forever, or at least until that hurdle is cleared. I’m sure it’s no different for Dave himself. State 100% should have beaten Clemson in 2017, just like it should have beaten Louisville in 2023. The Wolfpack is in the title game with either of those wins. It showed up to Winston-Salem in 2021 ready to play for the Atlantic Division with half a healthy defense, and I’m still here waiting for that final possession to play out after the onside kick recovery. It also had Miami beat on that night in 2020, and likely plays in the Orange Bowl with that win.

People want championships. Success is not measured in standard deviations from the mean. It’s measured in dichotomies. Dave Doeren and his tenure-long polarity is proof of that. The answer to “did you get there?” was never yes, and for some, that’s the end of the conversation.

I staunchly believe that, had the sport not turned itself upside down, Doeren eventually would have won one. The notion about Doeren that I really do hate is that State was allowing mediocrity as it retained him through the height of his tenure. The question should always be “what gives me the best chance to win a championship?” Being a contender in nearly half your seasons is certainly a compelling offer when trying to answer that question.

The idea of a concrete ceiling just beneath that championship is farcical. There is way too much variance for such a thing to be possible. If State had remained a serious ACC contender in nearly 50% of its seasons, as it was, it would have broken through.

That’s not how change works, though.

The Falling Action

In the 2023 season opener, there were 2 starters on NC State’s two-deep that were incoming transfers. That was quarterback Brennan Armstrong and nickel Robert Kennedy. In the 2024 season opener, that number had grown to eight. The sport had changed. NC State was ranked and had brought in an exciting class of instant-impact transfers. Nobody knew it yet, but the joints had started to weaken. The line of demarcation exists here.

Over the next three years, NC State’s football program saw a noticeable drop-off in competitiveness. It went 9-15 against Power Five opponents and 8-12 in the ACC. Money raced ahead of other program inputs in the order of importance, while player development dropped a cylinder. The greatest strength of the Doeren administration was losing its value, and a whole new set of responsibilities was emerging for head coaches.

This is not to blame NIL for the end of Dave Doeren. That would relieve the staff of any real responsibility, and that would be erroneous. With respect to coaching, it’s more accurate to say that the shifting demand could not be met by a staff that had been targeted to do a different job. Managing the roster in a state of yearly turnover while making tough calls on who to keep and who to cut was never a strength of this group, nor was blending all the brand new components into a cohesive team.

2024 was a messy season, and I remember remarking that it was the first time since at least 2016 that it felt like the results came in below the talent level. The on-field performance had become increasingly disoriented and void of an identity that was so clearly defined at the height of the tenure. 2026 then ran a highlighter over some of the broken processes that have to be addressed if the program is to succeed.

Doeren’s comments from his presser about the program needing better investment are not wrong. NC State does not have roster funding at a championship level. That is a long way from a controversial statement. State needs to increase its funding if it wants to win, full stop. It also needs to establish more efficient processes for asset management.

Doeren is a relationships guy. I know it doesn’t seem like it when salty Dave shows out behind the podium, but he is a relationships guy inside the program. Check out his voicemail to Thayer Thomas if you don’t believe me. I imagine it’s hard to balance the greatest motivator for him as a coach with the need to ultimately look at his players as numbers in a spreadsheet at the end of each season. I don’t know the man, but I don’t think he’s wired to thrive in a transactional world. Thus, here we are.

Doeren’s Legacy

To me, there are two legacies for Dave Doeren. This first is outside of football. It comes through things like Victory Day, OnePack Empowered, his support of building resources for developmentally disabled children, and the fact that his football program was clean for 14 years. It’s easy to put that last part in the corner with how many cheaters have won because of it and experienced zero repercussions, but it’s still a reflection of the leadership. You can comfortably say Dave Doeren was honestly a good person. He should be remembered as a positive contributor to the community.

On the field, it will probably remain polarizing. For some, the lack of hardware will define the tenure as one that couldn’t clear the last hurdle. For others, the quality of the process that allowed it to reach the last hurdle so many times will be the defining element. I’m not going to tell you how to think, but for me, I believe it should age well. It was time for it to end, but a lot of the things it provided still have value.

The ending was a little messier than planned. Doeren had a chance to take a graceful off-ramp last year after beating UNC and winning a bowl, but somebody looking for a face-saving exit probably isn’t the person you want leading your program anyway. One feature of genuinely wanting to win bad enough is that you don’t get to choose the ending, and that’s what happened. He went out swinging, and I respect it. I wish Dave all the best with whatever is next for him, and I’m excited for NC State to tackle the new era of the sport.

After Wake Forest pushed NC State’s season to the edge with its blowout win in Carter-Finley, Doeren’s group was offered the gift of scheduling: a bye week to prepare for a two-game stretch that featured two programs in apparent freefall. State’s response to this opportunity was to fall right off that ledge and join them.

The Wolfpack’s showing in Palo Alto on Friday was gutless. At a pivot point in the season where Doeren teams were historically gutty, it left a feeling that whatever power source had kept this thing chugging for fourteen years had finally run out. Doeren’s program always had a response when it felt like the ship might sink. It’s been the animating force of his tenure’s longevity. This was the moment. No such response could be found.

Stanford simply did whatever it wanted on offense. Micah Ford averaged seven yards per carry. Davis Warren threw for 300 yards and four touchdowns. NC State was powerless to stop an offense that, even after this game, still ranks 97th in the country in yards per play. The Wolfpack felt like it was gasping for breath as it clung to sight of one of the worst power five teams in America. There is no excuse to be this bad.

Unfortunately, this is not a left turn for the team. State’s roster build was mediocre, its management of the assets it does have is not delivering, and none of this was difficult to predict. There is a reason why every member of our staff had this team 7-5 or 8-4 in the preseason. The hit rate on question marks had to be unreasonably high to do something more.

State is inefficient in the NIL era. That’s the best way to describe how we got here, and it’s a shortcoming that has been spotlighted over the last couple of weeks, when two modestly funded programs (at best) racked up 864 yards on the Wolfpack defense. Both were obviously the better team for the whole game. Neither outspends the Wolfpack.

NC State is not realizing value from its current NIL pot. This specific team is infected by both questionable decision-making with the funds it has and the management of the pieces it did decide to spend on. We can argue about how much money it has and how that caps the program, and it does cap the program, but that’s a bridge State hasn’t given itself a chance to cross. Conversations about NIL funding begin when the program hits its head on its ceiling. This iteration of the Wolfpack is looking up at it from its back right now.

CJ Bailey is by far the most expensive asset on the team, and his retention’s opportunity cost was significant. Now, Bailey was awful against Virginia, but he hasn’t been the anchor on this boat. He isn’t bad, but it’s hard to justify that large of a pie slice when his production is not congruent with that cost tier. This was true last year, too. But State built the entire plane out of CJ Bailey for 2026. The skill positions were just stocked with his friends. None of these guys, short of Victor Snow, had proven anything on the field, and you’re bringing them in to play significant reps. Ultimately, it couldn’t retain several good players, and it was not able to replace them with anything at a similar level.

The frustration peaks when these pieces that were the focus of the offseason are not maximized. Personnel limitations will exist with the current budget, but again, those limitations aren’t the chief issue when you aren’t reaching them. The management of State’s receiving corps has raised flags for years now. Even beyond its offseason decision-making around the position, it hasn’t maximized the talent it does have for the better part of the last three years.

State’s last two offensive plays against Stanford were back shoulder fades into the boundary for Keenan Jackson, and he made an excellent play on both. The ball skills have always been real with this player, and yet, in his sophomore season, he was running the crossing route in Y cross repeatedly. From the staff through the quarterback, State has never prioritized these situations for Keenan Jackson, despite an obvious lack of other playmakers with this skill set. Prior to that sequence, Tyran Warren had more opportunities to win one-on-one on an outside fade. He has 0 catches in those instances.

The worst part of the Stanford game was, of course, the other side of the ball. Offensive line injuries put a governor device on the offense. The defense doesn’t have that limitation, but they’ve been much worse than the offense. Friday’s performance would fail to meet a subterranean bar.

The route distributions of NC State’s zone coverages are not good. State has used a good bit of cover 3 on early downs lately, usually with a rotation to it so it can bring a five-man pressure. It’s worked well against the run at times, but the spot drop zone structures have no connectivity. Davis Warren picked it apart on the very first play. Play action became a significant problem for the squeezing of second-level windows, and the defensive backs were beat in man coverage with regularity.

Poor awareness and connectivity is the theme with the back end. There are so many mistakes getting made that open huge windows for the quarterback to throw into, many early on in Friday’s game. Drop a comment if you want to see the film. I’m assuming nobody does.

The tackling remains a huge issue, as it has since the start of last season. But you know this already. Guys don’t play with good technique here. State’s defensive line was blocked easily. I mean, you can really just keep going if you want to.

This, to me, ties directly back to the earlier discussion about realizing value from the portal. It’s not just evaluation, it’s also activation. The execution of principles within the scheme is not sufficient. State cannot manage crossing routes in man coverage. It has many mechanisms to do this, one of which includes trading the mesh or drag route to the hole player. At least twice in the last two games, it has bungled this communication.

It’s not just about winning individual matchups. It’s technique, eye discipline, communication, and an understanding of the principles that allow the scheme to account for the ways it is being attacked. It’s coachable and installable elements of the game. This is a systemic failure from the defense, an inability to get the pieces to move the way they need to move. It’s disconnected.

With all that, it’s hard to imagine we aren’t approaching the official end. The last three years have offered maybe three weeks where NC State felt like it could have some juice, which were the first three weeks of last season. It put that to bed with a series of breakdowns against Duke and then one of the worst losses of Doeren’s 14 years against a coachless Virginia Tech.

There are just so many things here that are not working, so many broken processes right now, and the results are reflecting it. This group does not have the talent to win the ACC as it’s currently built, but it should absolutely be better than losing to Stanford.

Week 6 vs Wake Forest

Remember this game? I don’t. No recollection. Nothing to discuss, right?

Sigh, it’s just so frustrating and embarrassing losing to these guys. And now they have fans somehow appearing out of the ether to talk trash at us downtrodden NC State fans. I feel like they don’t have a leg to stand on if they can’t even sell out their basic ass high school stadium.

But that’s what’s been most frustrating. For over 20 years, these guys have had fewer resources, worse facilities, and lower recruits, and yet regularly still beat State. And now, two years removed from the uber frustrating Dave Clawson era, Wake Forest has a fighting chance to make the College Football Playoff!! If that happens before Dave Doeren could do it that would surely be his nail in the coffin. All excuses would be null and void.

Week 7 @ Stanford

I have literally no opinions on Stanford. I just know they’re supposed to be very very bad at football. And yet, NC State’s team is decimated with injuries, and is extremely hard to read for which team is going to show up week to week. They SHOULD win, but it’s a lose-lose situation. If they win, “yeah, you were supposed to win”, or, “you didn’t win by enough”. If you lose, it’s a national embarrassment, and Doeren might get fired on the tarmac. So, I guess if you’re hoping for the most chaos then sure root for NC State to lose I guess. I know there are segments of the fan base actively rooting for this, and I just don’t get how you can want your team to lose but then again flat earthers exist.

Anyway, let’s get to the picks!

AI slop’o’matic pic of the week:

The AI machine first tried to give me an image of the the Stanford jerseys on the Louisville Cardinals (plural) mascot. Clearly the machine was just as confused as all of us are as to what the heck a Cardinal (singular) is. After a thorough tongue lashing, it corrected and provided these grotesque Groot-like beings. They’re actually not half bad and Stanford should use this instead of that dumb Christmas tree costume they use now.

New Wolfpack head coach Justin Gainey’s first NC State team publicly debuted in an exhibition game at the Greensboro Coliseum on Sunday. It was a fitting place to begin the journey for the former NC State point guard, who grew up in the area and played high school basketball at Greensboro Day.

Just like last season, the Wolfpack played an SEC team that isn’t expected to finish at the top of its conference, and just like last season, the game was competitive until the final horn. Fortunately for NC State fans, a lot of things are different this season, and I was excited to see the new roster in action in what ended up being a 77–73 win over the Bulldogs.

The most important thing to keep in mind about this Mississippi State roster is that they mirror many SEC teams: athletic, big, and physical. At nearly every position, they held a size or strength advantage, presenting the exact type of physical personnel NC State must overcome to compete in the ACC and make noise in the 2027 NCAA Tournament.

I focused closely on individual performances, so player analysis will take center stage in this write-up. One key takeaway from every player who stepped onto the floor Sunday is their clear commitment to playing sound, disciplined basketball. The culture shift on this team is evident and very encouraging.

Sophomore transfer guards Preston Edmead and Darius Adams were two of the most intriguing and exciting newcomers on the floor for NC State. Preston is exceptionally crafty, skilled, and gritty, as advertised. When he used a high screen and drained a pull-up three off the dribble, it confirmed for me that he will be a vital piece in the backcourt and a nightmare for opposing defenses. Like his teammates, Preston played tenacious defense, even drawing a foul fighting through a screen set by a much larger player. While teams will try to exploit his lack of size, Preston will make them earn everything with his tenacity.

The word was that former McDonald’s All-American Darius Adams was exceeding expectations, and Justin Gainey clearly concurred by inserting Darius into the starting lineup and playing him for 32 minutes, where he responded with 16 points. Both Darius and Preston initiated the offense smoothly, but surprisingly it was Darius who led the team with 5 assists. He also brings a valuable rim-attacking element to the backcourt while defending cleanly without fouling. You can still spot a few hangover-esque habits from his time at Maryland that get him into a pickle: occasionally overpenetrating into multiple defenders, picking up his dribble in awkward spots, etc. He will sort these out quickly as he reviews tape and adapts with the help of the coaches and staff. Crucially, he also led the team with 6 rebounds, addressing an early area of concern in the game.

Paul McNeil went 1-for-7 from three-point range, but that off-shooting night didn’t feel like cause for concern. Paul showed off an expanded skill set by attacking the rim off the bounce and finishing a perfect 9-for-9 at the free-throw line, including two clutch frees to seal the victory. His ball-handling created some tense moments last season, but he looked composed and confident on Sunday. Alongside Darius, Paul gives NC State another physical guard capable of driving into the paint and drawing fouls, which was an area of need with this combination of NC State players. His perimeter presence drew heavy defensive attention, and he continued to rebound well. His low three-point shooting percentage felt secondary in part because teammates didn’t get him the ball several times when he was set and open. All that said, it’s worth remembering that only Paul and Ven-Allen Lubin share prior experience playing together on this roster.

Christian Hammond and RJ Keene didn’t post flashy stats, but both will clearly play meaningful roles this season. RJ played just 5 minutes, yet nearly 2 of those came during crucial late-game possessions where defense and experience were paramount. Christian logged 25 minutes, which featured him calmly knocking down a mid-range jumper that rescued a broken possession. Much of their value lies in their veteran poise, and both should become more reliable offensive threats as the year progresses.

Overall, the guards look solid and should rapidly develop chemistry with more game reps together. Notably they handled full-court pressure in both halves well.

The frontcourt performance was more of a mixed bag. Ven-Allen Lubin provided his typical efficiency, picking up where he left off last season with 13 points and 5 rebounds. However, rebounding stood out as the team’s primary flaw in the contest. Kyle Evans, Robert Jurkovic, Eemeli Yalaho, and Shah Hall combined for just four rebounds total. Mississippi State dominated the glass, outrebounding NC State 39–30 and securing 18 painful second-(or third-, or fourth-)chance opportunities via offensive rebounds. Robert Jurkovic struggled to establish position against Mississippi State’s physical interior, offering a “welcome to the party, pal” introduction to the American college game. Both he and Kyle will need to adapt quickly.

Kyle Evans endured a tough afternoon, playing just 12 minutes despite starting both halves. Offensively, NC State showed early on-ball pick-and-roll action with Preston and Kyle, but early foul trouble limited Kyle’s reps against Mississippi State’s aggressive frontcourt. On defense, Kyle was repeatedly isolated away from the paint against quicker guards who blew past him for easy buckets. After picking up two early fouls in the first half, he returned to start the second half only to commit two more quick fouls, effectively ending his night. Transforming from a drop-coverage rim protector (and the nation’s leading shot-blocker last at UC Irvine) into a versatile ACC defender appears to be a work in progress.

Eemeli Yalaho provided solid defense and efficient scoring, finishing with 8 points on 2-for-3 shooting from beyond the arc alongside two free throws. Like Kyle and Robert, he struggled on the glass against Mississippi State’s size, recording just one rebound in 22 minutes. Eemeli looked more like a big guard than a true big, which is both a gift and a curse for a guy being asked to play minutes at the 4.

Zymicah Wilkins made the most of his limited minutes, spelling a flustered Robert Jurkovic in the second half. It was clear that Zymicah was told to get in the game and get some dang rebounds, and he obliged by collecting three boards and making a layup in 5 minutes on the floor. Zymicah may be pressed into action earlier and more frequently than anticipated as a presence to complement Ven-Allen Lubin against more physical teams.

Shah Hall saw sparse action. While raw, his physical strength is evident, and it will be interesting to monitor his development under this coaching staff.

True to his reputation, Justin Gainey has taught this team to defend relentlessly. State forced shot-clock violations and 5 second calls. It was clearly a very frustrating experience… to the other team for a change. This alone was very refreshing. The fact that NC State came back from down 6 with around 4 minutes left with Kyle Evans on the bench says something important about their consistent energy and resilience. Winning despite Paul McNeil shooting 1-for-7 stands in stark contrast to last season, when the team required a buzzer-beating three-pointer from Paul to edge out a much less physical South Carolina team

Ultimately, the exhibition served as a valuable preseason tune-up against a Power 4 opponent. State has a slate of mid-major games leading up to their Bahamas trip against either Seton Hall or Wisconsin on November 20. This early exposure to an SEC team also gives the Wolfpack a clearer picture of what will be required when they face South Carolina and Tennessee in early December.

Justin Gainey’s history as a basketball coach is defined by his development of the Tennessee defense under Rick Barnes. When he was hired at NC State, it seemed a given that he would bring in someone who held a similar role to his, but on the offensive side, to help build the offensive identity of this group. That was Anthony Goins, who led the charge for a Georgia offense that racked up the points in a league full of tough defenses.

I took a look at two games from the Georgia offense last year and put together some thoughts and details on the product we might see this year for NC State.

Caveats

1. This is what Anthony Goins did last year. That doesn’t mean it’s exactly what Anthony Goins will do this year under a different head coach with different players. This could all be rendered useless on night one.

2. I did not watch every Georgia basketball game, so sampling error is in play.

Terms to know

• Pick and roll: A catch-all term for actions where a screen is set for the ball handler to use and attack the paint

• DHO: A handoff action that functions as a ball screen

• Zoom action: A 5-out handoff action where the receiver runs through a wide pin screen before receiving the handoff

• Ram screen: A screen for an off-ball player who will then go set a ball screen

• Veer screen: A ball screen where the screen will then immediately set an off-ball screen.

• Shake pick and roll: A variant of pick and roll where the off-ball player in the corner will relocate to the wing as a way to stress help (roller tag) out of that corner

Anthony Goins headed up a Georgia offense in 2025-26 that ran at the red line, occasionally overheating. It played fast, it was aggressively shooty, and it was 21st nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency. The Bulldogs were 82nd in the country in three-point attempt rate, a modest 183rd in three-point percentage, and 10th in pace. The volume of three-point shots out of actual actions was probably higher, but Georgia was a good offensive rebounding team as well, which led to putbacks. There were 11 games where Goins’ offense shot over 30 triples.

This team was swimming in green lights. Georgia had four players clear 150 attempts from three, and Jeremiah Wilkinson hoisted 221 triples by himself. Goins’ offensive approach was very modern in structure, with spacing as the cornerstone, a high volume of pick-and-roll, and a lot of components of actions designed to stress help. It is obvious why State valued players like Paul McNeil, Christian Hammond, Preston Edmead, and Eemeli Yalaho. I’m not saying these guys are only shooters, but that was the carrying trait for each in 2025, and each can be used as a tool to create stress on help defense with a +38% three-point shooting mark.

In the halfcourt, this offense isn’t overly complicated. It’s heavily reliant on spacing and high-level guard creation, and it seeks to create space for its guards to attack through various ball screen and DHO actions, with a good list of fun add-ons to manipulate help defense and enable its players to win. This type of offense is the air raid of basketball. It is simple in nature, it is repeatable, it is players over plays, and if run well with good players, it is explosive and hard to defend.

First and foremost, pace and aggression is everywhere. Georgia is looking to attack the rim early in possessions. If it can do that without needing an action or with a simple drag screen, Goins will be happy.

Here is a late transition drag screen from Georgia. Goins’ unit was always looking to attack early. Kentucky is disorganized here and Georgia gets an easy lob from a bad defensive possession.

Here is another late transition bucket from Georgia. Tennessee’s JP Estrella is picking up the big as he comes up the floor, but a miscommunication forces him onto the ball as nobody picks up the ball handler. Jeremiah Wilkinson immediately attacks the plus matchup, wins, and scores.

When it comes to the halfcourt offense, you get a fair amount of spread ball screen and empty side ball screen from the Bulldogs, and they commonly flow into other 5-out actions from there if forced to reset. Everything here is about opening space for your creators and allowing them to attack. Georgia uses a lot of off-ball cutting to manipulate help and create additional space for its primary creators.

The shooting gravity of guys like Paul McNeil and Christian Hammond adds juice to these types of movements, because you can’t lose those guys. These two possessions below give you a nice look at some basic actions, the use of off-ball cutting, and some good and maybe less good decision-making.

Georgia gets into a spread ball screen here and uses the corner cut to create the double gap. A good rotation from Kentucky forces the reset. Georgia resets and runs a shake pick-and-roll to attack Kentucky’s soft hedge coverage. Wilkinson kicks the ball back to Kareem Stagg (1), who has relocated to the wing (this is the “shake” part of the action). This little movement is built to challenge the help out of the corner when it has to rotate to the ball during the hedge. Good passing here gets the ball ahead of Kentucky’s defensive rotations. 4’s cut to the opposite corner puts his defender in an awkward spot. He swipes at the ball but isn’t in a position to do anything else.

Georgia starts this possession with a step-up spread pick and roll. Expecting a hedge, the screener will slip to the slot area. When no advantage is created, Georgia flows right into a zoom action and 3 clears to the opposite corner to create a double gap for the handoff to attack. Tennessee does a decent job switching this, but you can see how much space the DHO comes into. The shot selection here isn’t great.

This is the read-and-react element at play with a good movement sequence from Blue Cain as Georgia flows into the zoom action.

Again, Georgia runs the zoom action and corner cuts from the opposite wing to create the double gap. Blue Cain, who the action is run for, tries to basket cut when Kentucky denies the screen. When he doesn’t beat 5 with the cut, he reverses it back over the wide pin screen. 5 gets caught under the screen because he chased the basket cut, so Cain fades the screen and gets an open triple. It doesn’t impact the play here, but you can again see the corner cut from 4 that was designed to create that space (double gap) had Cain come hard off the handoff.

One of the enablers of series-based possessions like some of the ones above is the presence of multiple creators. Wilkinson was the number one for Georgia, but you can see them flowing into secondary actions for other guys. I like to think that State has this in guys like Darius Adams, Christian Hammond, and Paul McNeil. Each comes with questions when it comes to any kind of on-ball role, but there is certainly potential. Adams had a good game playing a lot of minutes in the exhibition. Hammond isn’t an elite athlete, but I like him as a secondary guy who can operate out of the corner and be the subject of a secondary handoff or zoom action.

Goins of course has his bag of various counters, extensions, and adjustments to attack certain defensive profiles. I didn’t clip it, but you see the veer screens on tape that Will Wade ran every game for Paul McNeil. It’s a fantastic enabler for a movement shooter like McNeil, and if he can become more of a downhill playmaker, that only elevates it.

This is a fun one. Here is “Ram Spain.”

First, you get a ram screen for Somto Cyril (2), who becomes the ball screener. This can delay the defensive big’s arrival at the screen, which can affect all sorts of elements of the play depending on the coverage. That is the “ram” part. After the ball screen takes place, the ram screener (Kanon Catchings, 6) flips and back screens for the roller, which is the “spain” part. Wilkinson creates the advantage off the screen while the big recovers fast and runs right into the guard’s screen. Kentucky’s guard then drops into the charge circle to protect on the roll. Wilkinson being able to turn the corner forces the help from 00 (didn’t know you could have this number) and a little two-man game ensues.

This is a player enablement offense. The Georgia guards had shining green lights to attack and to shoot the ball. On-ball guard play will be critical to enabling all of the juicy pieces here. Spacing is also critical, but that’s the element of this team I feel the most confident in. Shooting shouldn’t be an issue. There is too much history of high-end perimeter shooting.

Ven-Allen Lubin and Kyle Evans should both have “serviceable” as their floor when it comes to pick-and-roll bigs. Lubin could be in for a big season, and he’s a storyline I’m interested in following in this offense, which may adjust to enable him further.

The ceiling of this unit comes down to State’s guards and their ability to create paint touches and present a legitimate interior scoring threat. The fundamental issue that must exist for defenses in a ball screen situation is pressure being put on the rim.

Preston Edmead is impossibly entertaining, and he can generate a paint touch, but he was an inefficient scorer inside the arc last year. Darius Adams has the physical tools, and he made some waves in the exhibition. Obviously, he’ll need a major jump in efficiency from his freshman season. What does Paul McNeil have as a creator this year? Christian Hammond isn’t a natural advantage creator, but he’s flashed some playmaking in DHO and zoom actions.

State needs that next step to take this thing over the top and make defenses wrong at a high clip. If Darius Adams and Preston Edmead are your top two creators, they’ll need to shoot better than a combined 42% from two. But if you get that step from them, it’s hard to see how these pieces in this offense don’t lead to something good.

Since before this season started, I thought NC State was a 7-5 football team, and nothing that happened through five games challenged that thought. There was, however, a period of time during Saturday’s loss to Wake Forest where the Wolfpack threatened to turn a corner. CJ Bailey’s record-setting performance against Louisville seemed to have carried over, the defense was shutting down the run game, making the Deacs one dimensional, and NC State was dominating the game.

When Wake Forest punted with just under seven minutes to go in the second quarter, it had amassed 27 total yards. NC State had scored on back-to-back drives of over 70 yards, including a 96-yard drive. CJ Bailey was 15/15. It was clicking. The lead was only 14-7 because of another ball security gaffe, a classic case of enabling the opponent through mistakes, but State had the ball back with a chance to put some serious game pressure on Wake Forest.

NC State’s next five drives totaled 45 yards of offense. Wake would score 31 points and rack up 360 yards over its next five drives. This one changed so fast, and Wake was so dominant over that stretch, that the first two quarters of the game now seem like they were played in a parallel universe.

The whole thing really started to cave in after halftime, and the third frame here was among the worst efforts I’ve seen from NC State in some time. DJ Eliot’s defense racked up multiple procedural penalties, alignment errors, and miscommunications in coverage. The offensive line, or what’s left of it, was not great in the first half, but it held its own. In the second half, Wake’s simple TEX stunts were suddenly creating havoc for pass protection. Bailey was rushed into a lot of checkdowns as a result. Already lacking any real run game, the wheels started coming off the wagon as Wake added game pressure to an offense that couldn’t run the ball and couldn’t pass protect well enough to attack downfield.

This was the concept that created the two longest plays of the game for Wake Forest.

Wake loves to move the pocket, as many teams with athletic quarterbacks do. It had run some sort of sprint out three or four times already. Here it’s going to pull the guard and fake the sprint out, then run a post-dig combo back the other way with some sort of underneath control route to the weak side.

In both instances, the fake sprint out gets the middle safety to open his hips and work that way, and the post route going to the weak side is able to cross his face. The first clip is cover 1, and you can see Jaren Sensabaugh playing with outside leverage because his help is that safety in the middle. He’s not wrong there, but he does get toasted. The second clip is cover 3, and the same thing happens to the safety.

State struggled with the mesh concepts in the second half as well, which Wake was happy to exploit a few different times. This defense has many mechanisms to handle crossing routes throughout its menu of coverages, but it hasn’t been a defense that has communicated at a particularly high level the last two years, and this is one area where you see it.

Offensively, this crippled offensive line proved an issue, but even the starters didn’t play well. The left side was Teague Andersen and Jimarion McCrimon, the only two starters available, and they were beaten multiple times by two-man games from Wake Forest.

This is called a TEX stunt. Wake will have its B gap player or 3-tech, which is usually the defensive tackle in normal-down fronts, shoot the B gap. The edge player will loop over him into the A gap. It’s a very common pass rush game.

This is just not handled well. Both linemen chase their original assignments, no exchange occurs, and the looper is free to the quarterback.

This one is handled a little better, but you still end up with the penetrator coming clean through the B gap when Andersen tries to hand him off to McCrimon. That, combined with Rico Jackson giving ground on the speed-to-power move, forces Bailey up in the pocket, but Andersen is losing the edge while picking up the looper and Bailey walks right into it. These were just not handled well by the Wolfpack.

The backups really struggled too. Trent Mitchell had a rough day, but it’s hard to get too annoyed about that when he’s the eighth lineman. The starters having a bad day is different, especially when both have played well pretty much all season.

Final Thoughts

Every game is not an indictment of the staff or the program or the status of the world around us. That is a sick way to live. But this one kind of feels like it is. There is never an excuse to lose to Wake Forest by 24 points at home ever under any circumstances, especially not a Wake Forest team that’s modestly funded at best. Jake Dickert is trotting out a former South Alabama quarterback who washed out at UNC, and this guy is throwing the ball around like an All-ACC candidate.

State is just not getting that level of value from its roster construction, and that’s been the case since its first major portal build in 2024. The Pack is now 9-14 against power five teams since the start of 2024. It’s also 5-1 against G5 teams, but with an average margin of just +9. Unless NC State finishes 5-1, it will fail to win eight regular-season games for the third straight year.

That is decline, just mathematically speaking. Prior to 2024, NC State won eight regular-season games six times in seven years, and nine in three of those years. The last time it went three straight years without an eight-win regular season was 2014-2016. It all illustrates a leveling down within the ACC in the portal/NIL era, and getting pasted by Wake Forest the year after Duke won the ACC just runs a highlighter over the curable afflictions that hamper the Wolfpack.

This swirling mass of inconvenient truths has really turned the heat up on Doeren, and even if State were to get to 8-4, I’m not sure that would change the opinion of the growing mass of people who feel like the program has yet to make headway on solving this era. Actually, I’m sure it wouldn’t. It’s a shame, because Dave Doeren is a good football coach and an objectively good human, and I will always feel like he deserved an ACC title during that 2017-2023 stretch, when he was constantly on the doorstep. But this year’s team was never a contender, and something serious would have to break way to reach that status again.

Week 6 vs Wake Forest (aka WtFU)

It’s always some bullshit with these guys, isn’t it? This year, the “narrative” is quite full. Here are the top 3 topics surrounding the program as NC State greets the Demon Deacons on Saturday:

1. Gio Lopez is like, good now?

The discussion this week is all about how revamped the Demon Deacon offense is now that they have…checks notes… Gio Lopez at QB?!? The dude seemed lost last year at UNC, now is lighting it up.

We’ll put aside any jokes about UNC for now, and look at Gio’s current stats:

• Passing yards, 1377 (17th)

• Pass yards/attempt, 9.1, (25th)

• Pass yards/game, 275.4 (20th)

• He’s only thrown 1 interception

The one area of possible attack is in the pass rush. NC State was able to successfully get to Lincoln Kienholz, so they will have to do the same this week. Lopez is just as wily on the ground as Kienholz, and will turn busted plays into big gains. State has to be prepared for designed runs like, you know, the whole Beau Pribula situation.

I just hate that we’re at the point where we’re worried about how much damage a Gio Lopez led offense is going to do, and that leads to the next point…

2. Dave Doeren year 14 vs Jake Dickert year 2

Dave Doeren is not just battling Jake Dickert on the field, he’s also fighting the narrative that his tenure is stale and past his prime. Meanwhile, Dickert stepped in and took Wake Forest to 9 wins in his first year. This 9 win total is buyoed by the fact that they beat an SEC team (Mississippi State) in their bowl game. Turns out beating SEC teams is good for the general opinion on your program, Dave Doeren oughta try that some time.

Dickert is now in year 2, yet somehow has Wake with more juice than State has had in years, with a fraction of the Pack’s NIL budget. It will most likely be short-lived since he seems like the hot coaching candidate this year, but still. If the Deacons win this game, expect the boo birds to be out in full force for the fans wanting Boo Corrigan to find a Dickert of his own (or literally just hire him straight up). This narrative is exhausting and is a discourse I hope to avoid entirely, so for that point alone I’d like for NC State to win this game.

Wake Forest sits at 4-1 right now. NC State SHOULD be 4-1 as well, but you know, fumbles in the endzone will do that, and they’re 3-2 instead. If the Wolfpack can win this game it will put them in good position to maintain momentum towards the ultimate goal (which we are not speaking aloud yet, but are trying to manifest).

3. The NC State offensive line is, like, nonexistent right now

The Wolfpack’s injury report is a legit joke:

Spike Sowells is out for the season, and based on how he limped off the field, I wouldn’t be surprised if Yousef Mugharbil is soon to be announced as such. Add Rylan Vann and possibly Kamen Smith, and you have to go deeeeeep on the depth chart to actually field a functioning offensive line. We’re about one week away from Dave Doeren holding open tryouts to fill gaps on the line.

On top of that, Duke Scott being out and maybe Jojo Trader, and now we really aren’t sure who will be protecting CJ Bailey, nor he will be handing the ball off/passing to.

Insert: Ive_got_a_bad_feeling_about_this.gif

As for Loiusvile: Was it a good win or not?

Depending on who you ask, NC State either notched a good win against a quality opponent last Saturday, or they got lucky the Lousiville pooped the game away. Two sides of the same game’s coin.

• NC State went out against the odds and won a great game against a very good football team.

• NC State didn’t exactly win that game, so much as the Cardinals lost the game.

The truth, as always, is somewhere in the middle. Yes, the Cards did a ton to help the Wolfpack in this game. They coughed up 5 fumbles, losing 3 of them. But also NC State went in and forced those fumbles. It actually should have been more turnovers, since NC State dropped at least 2 surefire interceptions.

Dave Doeren and his staff out-coached Jeff Brohm, but the haters are not willing to give flowers. I think a lot of people feel like we’ve been here before. In last week’s picks, Trey correctly picked the win citing that that is precisely the kind of game Dave Doeren has a tendency to pull out of his butt just when he needs it most. The issue a lot of fans have is feeling like they’ve been burned in the past thinking one week’s good win will snowball into an avalanche of future success, but Dave Doeren simply doesn’t operate that way. He can follow up good wins with head scratching losses. A lot of people are like the Hawkeye “don’t give me hope” gif. They won’t be willing to acknowledge the possibility of success until the season is over and it’s actually happened.

But then, there’s a darker side of the fan base. Those that are actively rooting for ultimate destruction, and need Doeren to fully crater before their ultimate wish of him being removed from office can be granted. They are shorting NC State stock and need it to bottom out, so every win goes against their aims. They think that another 7-8 win season will only prolong this tenure. We will keep an eye on this growing narrative.

Anyway, let’s get to the picks!

Well, those are depressing…

AI slop’o’matic pic of the week:

It’s kind of hilarious how it literally is just replacing each week’s opposing mascots with that of the current week, but it’s basically the same photo.

I thought this might be too boring, so I said, “We're in "spooky season" now, so make those deacons more demon-ish”, and got this:

I should have just quit while I was ahead. Although the haunted mansion and full moon in the back are a nice touch.

It’s always nice to see a good storyline play out in sports, especially when it’s your team and that storyline is it staring down and defeating a specific demon that’s threatening to become “just who they are.” That’s what happened on Saturday, when the Wolfpack blew a double-digit lead in the game’s final 20 minutes for the third straight week. It’s cliche, but it’s at this point that somebody has to make a play. Somebody out there has to stand up and say “here and no farther.”

That individual was Harvey Dyson, whose chase-down tackle and forced fumble may have been worth 10 points and almost certainly changed the outcome. Dyson chased down Louisville running back Keyjuan Brown with NC State about to go behind for the first time all afternoon, forcing a fumble that eliminated a Louisville red zone possession. If NC State is to make anything noteworthy of this season, this is the play that swings it.

Dyson is one of several guys who played a good game after a start to the season that underwhelmed many. CJ Bailey leads that parade, as he was really good. The ask for Bailey before the season was to become a quarterback who could win you games. As of Saturday morning, NC State with CJ Bailey was 3-13 against power-five opponents when rushing for less than 200 yards, with two of those wins coming against terrible teams that scored fewer than 20 points. State is now 4-13 after the quarterback played one of the best games of his career. The Pack gave up almost 500 yards and put forth a mediocre ground game effort thanks to some injuries, but it still won because of explosive plays through the air. That is the definition of the next level for the passing game.

Offense Ignites the Explosives

The combination of Bailey and Kurt Roper was on a bit of a heater against the Cardinals, who were ripe for plucking thanks to a lack of growth since the start of the year. This particular Jeff Brohm experiment seems to confirm the original theory. Louisville is talented, objectively the more talented team, but it is just so sloppy and disorganized. State generated tons of explosive plays attacking its messy and predictable zone structures, and that was really the story of the game on offense. The Wolfpack outcoached the Cardinals.

Let’s start with State’s offense and how it attacked Louisville. The Cardinals are a predominantly post-closed team. That means a lot of one-high safety looks, allowing for full boxes against the run and weaknesses in the seams of the coverage when it plays its cover 3, which it does a lot . . . and poorly. These types of defenses can be attacked vertically, and that’s exactly what NC State did, getting into vertical concepts in many fun ways.

Bailey was really seeing this defense, and Louisville’s attempts to counter with 2-roll coverages (cover 2 from a one-high look) were easily defeated by the quarterback. Take a look below.

NC State will run 4 verticals from its two-tight-end set. Louisville is in a one-high safety look and will play cover 3, which is ripe for 4 verticals, because 4 is more than 3. Douglas’ motion helps Bailey confirm cover 3. From there, the quarterback does an excellent job of reading the safety’s width and widening him with his eyes before working back to the opposite seam to a wide-open Providence. This is called a slide read, and it’s done very well.

Here, State will run 4 verticals into another single high, or closed post, zone coverage. Louisville is trying to catch State napping here with a coverage disguise, as it will show single high but play cover 2 (called 2-roll). You can see it take place at the snap. Douglas’ exit motion to run the outside vertical creates some problems. Louisville does not distribute those routes well on the short side, and the safety doesn’t seem to even notice Douglas, while the flat linebacker is late to trail. Bailey is all over it.

Once again, 4 verticals to attack the post-closed structure. Once again, Louisville will play 2-roll in an attempt to catch Bailey off guard. The hole defender for Louisville does not widen with Victor Snow’s over route, though, and Bailey fires it in there. None of these disguises even seemed to bother him.

It’s really all very good. Bailey deserves a ton of credit for the way he saw this game and how willing he was to let it rip. I’m not sure what happened to him on the interception, but I’m glad we don’t have to talk about that play. The crazy super late jump ball fifty yards down the field to Keenan Jackson was an ill-advised throw, but I’d still rather his mistakes look like that than him holding the ball. The most notable part of this game for him is that he was playing fast. Bailey’s indecisiveness has been a killer when he’s been bad. There was virtually zero of that on Saturday, and that’s ultimately the difference in the game.

This is not a highlight play but this is Bailey playing fast. This is a shock concept, which is a hitch-fade-stick combo that allows the quarterback to pick one based on the coverage. Bailey gets a big cushion by the corner on the hitch from Trader to the wide side of the field. You don’t see the hitch get thrown in shock too often because it’s such a long throw and can get undercut. But Bailey likes the look here, and the flat defender is trying to collision Snow so this gets ripped for a third down conversion.

Preston Douglas is becoming a bigger story each week, and State is getting so much value right now out of Douglas motions, some of which you see above. He is nowhere near the matchup problem Justin Joly was, but he’s become a reliable gadget for Kurt Roper, and Roper is using him to build heavy personnel sets, challenge communication from the defense, and run vertical attackers from those heavy sets.

Douglas has stepped up the blocking the last two weeks as well. He was really poor against Vanderbilt, but the physicality has come on lately, and it’s activating pieces of this offense. Football as a whole has seen a tight end resurgence, and State is very much living in it with Provience and Douglas.

The only negative coming out of this for the offense is the injury list starting to bloat. I have concerns about better defenses getting to face an NC State team with three backups on the offensive line. The backups have played admirably and deserve credit, but they are a noticeable downgrade from the starting group. With Duke Scott also questionable going forward, this team’s budding identity will be challenged, but it found a way to win without a huge contribution from the ground game on Saturday. This was the perfect opportunity for CJ Bailey to deliver at a higher level, so we will celebrate that for the time being.

Defense Takes the Ball

Defensively, NC State wasn’t necessarily good down-to-down, but it was opportunistic, and that was enough. You could see where some of the talent advantages lived for the Cards, but the playmaking from State’s defense served as the equalizer.

Louisville had 11 drives in the game. It cracked the red zone seven times, but had three empty possessions resulting from a fourth-down stop and two lost fumbles. It doesn’t matter how you get stops, as long as you do. AJ Prim, Ke’Von Carter, and obviously Harvey Dyson had huge forced fumbles, all of which led to points for NC State, and two of which definitely took points off the board for Louisville.

State was also able to create some key negative plays. Two of Louisville’s three punts followed a third-down sack where State’s pressure paths got Louisville’s protection twisted up in a knot.

Late movement here from State seems to confuse the Louisville protection. The Cardinals are in man-to-man in the protection because State has five on the line, which would make the back responsible for LaCorian Hodge rushing the A gap from the second level. The back works to the edge instead, which is what he would do if Louisville was in a full slide protection. The running back is executing a completely different protection structure than the rest of the line. State’s late movement to get five guys on the line may have caused a miscommunication, or Louisville may just be a mess, or both.

This is Dyson’s sack to end the game. State gets a free rusher through the A gap despite only bringing four. Chase Bond at the bottom does a good job occupying the guard before working to contain while Elijah Satchel’s penetration occupies the center’s gap. This clears the A gap for Dyson to go one on one with the running back, but the back just goes ahead and runs right by him. He is responsible for Satchel if Satchel comes through the left-side A gap, but when Satchel goes right instead, that responsibility becomes the center’s, and the back thinks he’s clear. He releases, but Dyson is looping to the left (man-to-man) side of the protection and the back never sees him. They pass like ships in the night, while the guard has no chance to get to Dyson, and State gets a free pass to the quarterback.

This is a simpler one, but Joseph Adedire is going to blow up this zone play. Louisville is running outside zone to the right, and State is going to reduce the other way, which just means the linemen are going to play over a gap. You can see Adedire at the bottom is lined up in the B gap, but he attacks the A gap after the snap. His get off has always been good, and he cuts this play off immediately, forcing it to the backside. Remember, this ball wants to stretch horizontally, but it’s forced off track immediately. This is another of many instances of State using early down movements and pressures to snap off run plays.

Closing Statement

There will be time for “what does this mean?” NC State is still a home dog to Wake Forest and now has a host of new injuries to deal with, so there is still plenty of work to do. But greater teams would not be faulted for falling apart under the circumstances at play had State blown another lead and lost this game. The fact that you got a huge game from so many guys and, because of that, you found a way to win- well that changes the whole vibe. It really felt like we were at a tipping point with this year, and State has once again gotten off the mat. Let’s enjoy the highlights of this one, because it was an extremely fun win, and that’s ultimately the point of all this.

10 days ago I wrote about responses. How State needed to decide how they would approach an opponent, on paper, much worse than them. It started strong against App State, faded late, but held on. It left behind a less than desirable aftertaste.

Saturday followed a similar script, and yet it felt so different. Don’t get me wrong, there were still mistakes and breakdowns and major issues against the Cards. But this game felt much more about the Pack making timely plays than it did “building a lead against a bad team and squandering it late.” And I think you needed to see that from this team.

Everything about this game felt chaotic. The Carter full of rain and fans in ponchos in what was definitely not the forecasted “stray” thunderstorms. Louisville trotting out Lincoln Kienholtz after calling him a game-time decision unprompted last week. State losing multiple offensive linemen, and defensive players against a team known for its explosiveness. Start to finish, the viewing experience from the stands was hectic.

But you saw the capital R response that you were hoping to see against a Louisville team that is much better than their 2-3 record. Transfers that had underperformed to start the year, depth pieces seeing their first career snaps of consequence, a quarterback with the spotlight squarely on him - guys on both sides of the ball rose to the occasion with memorable plays that kept putting State back in the right spots.

Collectively this group met the moment. The numbers and analytics aren’t pretty everywhere, but when you score more points than your opponent, that’s all that matters.

CJ Bailey Shines

C.J. Bailey showed you why this staff fought so hard to retain him this offseason. Considering the Vanderbilt result, the nasty conditions to start the game, and the crazy injuries around him, I’m comfortable labeling this as the best performance of his career.

Bailey was confident, decisive, and fundamentally sound for most of the day. The one major mistake in the endzone was a ball he definitely wants back, but one that was aided by Victor Snow cutting his route. Bailey was effective on the ground, responded well to 3+ drops from his receivers (and the aforementioned interception) and threw for a career high 373 yards.

There’s been a ton of up and down to his game, but man, I am super impressed that he brought his best stuff to the table in a pressure pacekd spot. This is what stepping up looks like:

I can’t imagine what it must have been like for him post Vanderbilt. For him to play his best ball two weeks later against State’s highest rated opponent to date is a really good sign. C.J. getting confidence and clicking with a skill group that seems to be settling is how you can take advantage of a schedule that features just two more games out of the state of North Carolina.

Receivers Stepping Up

State’s pass catching rotations are starting to trim down, and with it, you’re starting to see the Dudes emerge.

Keenan Jackson continues to be solid in all elements of his game as the Pack’s leading receiver on the year. Jojo Trader had a big day, even with his drops, leading the team with 92 yards. Victor Snow had two massive third down conversions after no showing the first part of the season. Tyran Warren showed you his speed tool with a 34 yard vertical score to give State a 13 point lead out of halftime.

There is one guy that I don’t see getting enough love on this offense yet: Preston Douglas. Through Kurt Roper’s playcalling (he has been on a heater since Virginia) and his own natural feel for space, it seems like he’s always open. He’s been State’s most consistent offensive weapon and a go to guy in high leverage situations:

Past these guys, Chance Robinson and Ashton Locklear were the only other wide receivers to see snaps, and they only saw 15 and 4, respectively. Each of these receivers give you a trait - Keenan’s all around game and size, Trader and Snow’s shiftiness, Warren’s speed, Douglas’s reliability and ability to find space.

It’s not the best skill group in the country, but you’re seeing an identify form here. That identity will continue to be stress tested, especially if State is without Duke Scott next week against a surging Wake Forest.

Garrett Tujague Needs His Flowers

If I had a game ball, I’d be giving it to Garrett Tujague and his room.

If you haven’t been following it closely, Spike Sowells hasn’t played since the first half against Richmond. Teague Anderson has slid from Right Tackle to Center and has played his ass off since. Rico Jackson has been figuring things out at Tackle. Mostly, it’s been an admirable effort from both guys.

But in the days leading up to the Louisville contest, it came out that Jimarion McCrimmon was also injured. That meant Texas transfer Daniel Cruz would draw in at Center for the first time.

That wasn’t all: Yousef Mugharbill went out in the fourth quarter in a tie game, which forced Trent Mtichell into the game at left guard. State finished this game with an entirely new left tackle, guard, and Center.

It also finished this game on the ground with Will Wilson.

You can’t overstate how impressive it is for State to go this deep against a team with Louisville’s front and win consistently. Garrett Tujague is one of Dave Doeren’s best hires in his tenure, and he continues to elevate everyone he works with, regardless of recruiting pedigree.

Havoc, Havoc, Havoc

One of defensive coordinator DJ Eliot’s stated goals with this unit and his system is to generate Havoc. Pass deflections, tackles for loss, sacks. State had not been great in this department to start the year.

Saturday was easily the best Havoc performance of an Eliot unit since the start of his tenure. State created a havoc play on 25% of its defensive snaps against the Cardinals, which is in the 96th percentile of performances per Game on Paper.

That performance was powered by many, but headlined by Harvey Dyson. His chase down tackle and forced fumble on Keyjuan Brown was worth ~3.63 points per Game on Paper - in a 3 point game - and he permanently sidelined Louisville’s offense with his sack of Lincoln Kienholtz with 4:30 left. He raised his hand this week and said he needed to improve, and he came up with two of the biggest plays of the game.

You also have to give Popo Aguirre some love for recovering three fumbles, a new record for an N.C. State defender in a single game. There’s certainly luck involved on the turnover front, but State also dropped multiple interceptions here - this turnover margin could’ve been even more slanted than it was.

This is the most explosive offense State will play all year. Louisville’s offense was fully healthy for this one, despite a “game time decision” from Lincoln Kienholtz and WR LeWayne McCoy. This was going to be a tough assignment without State making drive altering plays, and they did enough to squeak this one out despite allowing 8.66 yards per play.

This is going to be the formula against better competition if State wants to continue winning games as underdogs - timely plays and getting teams off schedule.

Season Trajectory Adjuster?

If you’ve read my stuff for a while, you know I lean heavily on SP+ as a power ratings signal. I found it interesting that State has dropped from ~40th in SP+ to 62nd since Richmond. On the surface, I can understand what is happening here: State lost to Vanderbilt and played really poorly in the second half, they squeaked by App State, and needed lots of turnover variance to beat Louisville on Saturday.

What’s interesting about those three games: State has trailed by a combined 1 second.

I think this team is probably an above average FBS team on paper. But with this schedule, confidence building, and a pissed off locker room looking to debunk a narrative, there’s plenty of opportunity here.

The Louisville game was a matchup many folks pegged to be the potentially season defining contest. It might’ve looked different than we thought - Louisville being 2-3 now - but that offseason guess might prove to be correct. And while Louisville is below .500 right now, they’re still rated as the 32nd best team in the country in SP+.

If State can get past a good Wake Forest team, they’ll be 4-2 and 2-1 in conference heading into the bye week. They’ll get a terrible Stanford team on the road, and another terrible California team at home the following week.

I won’t get ahead of myself because winning in college football is harder than ever, and Wake Forest looks much better than anticipated. But when you expect the least…who knows where this thing could go from here.

That’s the fun of this sport.

My dislike for Lousivile (see???) pretty much stops at the spelling of the name. I’m so old that even though they’ve been in the ACC for a dozen years I still view them as a Big East school, a conference that doesn’t even play football anymore! Honestly, I still view all the former Big East teams as interlopers even though I have to get over it. BC, Syracuse, Pitt, VT, Miami, and Loisvill are here to stay so I just have to accept it. I don’t actually hold anything against the school or its fans, I’m rather agnostic on them. My main beef is they joined the ACC and became one more hurdle standing in the way of NC State being able to make it Charlotte to contend for the ACC title. If we needed to trade away Maryland and get Loucivell e in return, then so be it. Having them in the Atlantic division was one extra thing that made it that much harder than traversing the Coastal. I would say RIP to the circle of suck, but last year saw its return. The dark magic of the coastal was unleashed on the rest of the conference when divisions were removed.

Week 5 vs Loisivlle

Where were we? Oh right, back to this week’s matchup against the lOivielle Cardinals. It’s not an exaggeration to say the this game could be a lynchpin for the whole season. Both teams desperately need to win to keep any shred of hope of being in the ACC race alive. Jeff Brohm has shown a tendency to follow up big wins with a toe-stubbing loss, as he did last week against Wake Forest after their thrilling win against SMU. Loisvilel might be without star QB Lincoln Kienholz, but I’ll believe it when I see it since he’s just listed as questionable. NC State kinda needs Kienholz not to play if it seriously wants to slow down the Cardinals offensive attack. This team has a lot of firepower, which is what boat loads of NIL money will get you. I have severe doubts the NC State defense will be able to stop Losivill e at full strength.

As for the other side of the game, Losivulle is not that great on defense. NC State should be able to have success moving the ball. So the game comes down to this:

• Loisivlle > > > NC State defense

• NC State offense > Losiiblle defense

Given this, I think NC State will be able to put points on the board, just not enough/ not fast enough to keep up with the Cardinals. If Kienholz doesn’t play, it might adjust the calculus by maybe one less “>” in favor of the NC State defense, but I’d say it still tilts the scale in favor of Losibille.

What about App State?

Dave Doeren is in a lose-lose situation. He plays a school like Richmond and blows their doors off, nobody cares because, “that’s what you’re supposed to do against those kinds of teams.” Then he plays an upstart team like App State that always stays trying to start some stuff, cuts a big lead and everyone boos even though the Wolfpack still won by 10. I think the issue is twofold:

1. Giving up a 21 point lead to team from the Sun Belt is troubling no matter which way you slice it. Malachi Singleton was slinging it all over the field, finishing with 317 yards (64 more than CJ Bailey, btw). If your defense can’t hold its ground against this level of opponent, then how can we as fans have any hope they’ll be able to stop the Losiville offense? Short answer, it probably can’t.

2. You simply can’t be tied at 31 with under 10 minutes to go, and the NC State offense stalled in the second half.

It’s not good enough to be able to say, “hey, a win is a win, and a double digit win at that is still good.” But that is like the classic Brian Kelly, “LSU won the football game” press conference:

Does that sound familiar?

Yes, sometimes these things are just one game, but often times those little things add up and provide real cause for concern. The problem is the fact the team won the game often paints over those concerns. In past years, we’ve seen issues that NC State has faced against non-power conference opponents rear its head when playing more important games later in the schedule.

Dabo Swinney is getting lots of frustrated comments from his fans and local media, but he has a long resume to help him push back including two championships and over a decade of conference dominance. At this point, what does Salty Dave have to push back with? I’m honestly asking…

Anyway, let’s get to the picks!

AI slop’o’matic pic of the week:

And one final note if you’ve read this far: I pinky promise I wasn’t trying to intentionally misspell Loisiville, I just can’t help that’s how it comes out for me. I am but a simple man trying to learn to not rely on spell check to clean up my embarrassments.