This was a similar experience with my local high school team the first two weeks of the season. They have been blowing teams out and there’s a mercy rule in NJ high school football if a team is up by 35 or more points they use a running clock to speed the game up. It doesn’t stop for incompletions or out of bounds, so the fourth quarter was literally done in about 15 minutes of real time. I wish NC State had been able to do something like that against Richmond. I don’t think I’ve ever seen more of a sad sack effort from an alleged Division 1 football team. And this isn’t even the most elite team of the Dave Doeren era. Top era Finley-Harmon-Meyers-JaySam would have won this game by 100.

And EVEN WITH ALL THAT, I still walked away from the game being a bit disappointed. If you assumed there’s nothing to take away from this game, here are some of my nitpicks that could be bellwethers for the rest of the season:

1. I still don’t think CJ Bailey looks sharp. If you can’t drop back and feast on this defense, then I’m not sure there will be another defense this season you’ll be able to do that against. I left this game being even more concerned about CJ than even after UVA. Still throwing off platform or off his back foot. Still throwing late or inaccurately. As I said on the Lotcast, which types of throws are in his bag? Does he even have a bag? Not even a cross-body sling, more like a small fanny pack that fits your phone and wallet and stick of gum.

2. The receivers still leave a lot to be desired. Similar to the concern with CJ, if these guys couldn’t get wide open by a country mile against the Richmond secondary, then there’s little hope to expect they’ll be able to get open against Vanderbilt or ACC defenses.

3. This means that we’re concerned with the QB and receivers, which are two pretty critical pieces of a passing attack. If the receivers struggle to get open, it creates small passing windows that are only open for a short time. But if your QB struggles with both timing and accuracy, what confidence do we have that he’ll be able to get those balls into that spot accurately and on time? That’s an open ended question I will leave for you to mull over and guess where I stand on it.

Things that went well:

1. Offensive line played their tails off in both pass protection and run blocking. Yes, it’s Richmond, but we’ve seen NC State OL’s struggle against lesser competition before, so this felt good.

2. Running backs all ran hard. This is going to have to be the strength of this team. Get ready for a crap ton of repetitive run plays followed by a third down Bailey incompletion.

3. Wheels. Duke Scott got to show off his speed which was cool to see. But who knew Will Wilson was so fast?? We’ve never seen that before, and it’s like, why don’t you put him in space to try and make something happen. I’ve been dying for a two-QB set. You could legit kill teams with some option sets with Bailey and Wilson.

4. The team looked like they were generally happy and having a good time. I’m happy for them to shed off the baggage of the UVA game that’s been hanging on them for two weeks and hopefully they’ll be able to go into the Vanderbilt game clean.

Speaking of which, it’s hard to predict anything that will happen in Nashville. That is clearly not the same team they had last year, and yet the boogeyman of the SEC still hangs over Dave Doeren. This game is a lose-lose situation for DD. If he wins then it will be like the ACC’s post last weekend about the conference going 3-0 against the Big 10.

Sure, you went 3-0 but it was against Rutgers, Purdue and Illinois. Not exactly the cream of the crop.

If Doeren wins: we can’t really celebrate him exorcising any SEC demons because people will say, “yeah, but it’s just Vanderbilt, they’re returning to their historical average and are still the dregs of the conference.”

If Doeren loses: all the haters come out of the woodwork complaining about him still not being able to compete against the SEC, we can almost hear the tweets being pre-drafted, “it’s year 14 and you couldn’t even beat Vanderbilt!?”

Now, Vandy might end up being pretty good this season. Their early season struggles might just be a factor of getting a 5-star QB up to speed for college football. We might look back at this game and see that they were a solid team overall. Or they could fall off a cliff, which would make a loss sting even more looking back at it in 10 weeks.

We do know their QB is working his way into the flow of the game at this level. And you know which school is always willing to allow opposing players have career days or get-right games? (another question I’ll let you answer…)

And in the return of an older segment, here’s the AI slop pick of the week:

This game opened at Vandy -4 and is currently sitting at -3. I do think it’s a pretty evenly matched game, and very winnable for NC State. Your guess is as good as mine as to what will happen, so go ahead and give us your pick below!

On this episode of The Lotcast, we cover how NC State can further develop its identity, the importance of doing so, and how it could enable an upset at Vanderbilt. 

Watching State play Virginia week zero was like popping a balloon that contained a fan base’s worth of hope. Friday night’s weird weather delayed 73-0 smackdown was a nice attempt to stuff the hope back into the patched up receptacle. We’ll see how long it holds.

This result was polarizing in the opposite direction. I thought State would handle Richmond down to down, but I had zero expectation of a record breaking performance. These numbers are absolutely stoopid:

In addition to program records for yards (734) rushing touchdowns (8) and points and touchdown marks that have held since before World War II. You will not see a more dominant game summary screen from Game on Paper this year:

Offensively, State brought out their best early. On our Lotcast podcast this week, we talked about getting C.J. on the move to throw, and running out of the pistol to give State’s offense some flexibility. They did this on their first two plays, and they went for 12 and 43 yards respectively.

We were pretty confident that State’s offensive line was good to start the year, and they looked good again at Virginia, effectively matching UVA’s veteran line in “line yards created.” State’s run game looked incredible, regularly getting Duke Scott and Davion Gause to the second level. State’s running back room combined for 19 missed tackles forced and 294 yards after contact on just 29 carries. This is the clear strength of the offensive unit.

That’s not where the questions were, though. Most State fans were interested in seeing how C.J. Bailey would respond to arguably the worst performance of his career. There wasn’t a ton to take away from his night. Going 13/17 and seeing him throw the football down the field was an improvement, but Richmond’s defensive backs were consistently “wrong” and beaten. He did complete one deep ball to Keenan Jackson, who emerged as his go to option, but there just wasn’t a large enough sample here to feel tremendously better from Week Zero.

I’m still not fully understanding what the deal is with skill rotations. Vander Ploog played 1 snap after having State’s biggest offensive play in week 0 - it’s possible he’s still not healthy, but what about Victor Snow? 2 catches for 12 yards on the year. It seems there’s a good sample now that says Tyran Warren and Ashton Locklear are a step down in quality from Snow, Jackson, and Trader, and they continue to see significant run.

State’s first two games to start the year have been anomalous, with State being on opposite ends of blowouts, so I’ll wait another week to get frustrated on this. But moving forward, I will continue to beat the drum: get your best players on the field and let them work. You’ve got to with what we’ve seen from the passing attack so far.

Defensively, I continue to feel better relative to my beginning of year expectations. Richmond’s offense did nothing, and even though they aren’t very good, seeing that kind of dominance after a promising start against Virginia is a good sign.

I was interested to see how State handled linebacker without AJ Richardson, and it was Bailey Benson - a former Wake Forest transfer - who surprisingly got the nod. He played well and graded out as State’s third highest defensive player on PFF with an 80.4 overall grade.

State appears to have a group of younger situational guys they really like. LaCorian Hodge comes in on passing downs at linebacker and had another good showing. Ziggy Moore and Elijah Satchell, true freshmen backers, also played well and looked the part despite their youth. Most years, Dave’s teams have a couple of young guys that come out of nowhere to contribute meaningfully. It looks like that will be the case again next year.

I don’t put a ton of stock into this performance. It is directionally true that great teams in football beat the pants off of bad ones. But this performance didn’t answer the questions related to State’s major week zero flaws, particularly around the quarterback position.

Friday was like the piece of gum you pop to cleanse your pallette after eating something weird. The momentary relief is nice, but if you don’t consume anything else significant in the near term, that taste is coming right back.

State has a golden opportunity to eradicate that bad taste and chip away at a long standing narrative. Going to Vanderbilt represents a double whammy of Dave Doeren struggles, where the Pack will look to 1) beat an SEC team, and 2) do it as an underdog on the road.

Vanderbilt looked like a super beatable football team against Delaware, barely scraping by 35-26 and still rotating quarterbacks. Five star true freshman Jared Curtis got most of the game, but the fact that it has taken him this long to beat out *squints* fellow competitor Blaze Berlowitz is significant.

In my opinion, this is an opportunity you can’t let slip away.

The Richmond Spiders were 2-0 entering Friday night, carrying wins over Bucknell and Howard. After seeing NC State choose to not score 80, I have some questions for Bucknell and Howard.

Watching the game, it wasn’t clear to me if this Richmond team had indeed played football before. Whether it was the quarterback throwing a screen into the stands, in-phase defensive backs just kind of flailing around like a child’s sprinkler toy, or linebackers getting clean shots on Duke Scott and seemingly losing arm functionality before our eyes, this gang of nearly football players is exactly what NC State needed to see.

We knew State would win this game. It was more about process than result. If you listened to The Lotcast this week, you heard discussion about the pistol formation as a way to run zone plays, the boot flood play as a rhythm-generating play for CJ Bailey, and the use of jet motion. State did all three of these things. In fact, the very first play was a boot flood play and the second play was wide zone out of pistol. State’s speedsters got a handful of opportunities on the jet sweep as well.

State also integrated some 2-back sets into the offense this week. Both of these alignments make it harder for the defense to set the strength of the front. The majority of runs from single-back shotgun sidecar alignment will go opposite the back, but with the back in-line with the QB, or with two backs that can carry the ball, you lose that tendency to play off of as a defense.

Kurt Roper also did away with a lot of read-run stuff that was a big part of the Virginia gameplan. Read-based plays, whether they’re RPOs, zone reads, power reads, or what have you, have been iffy for NC State, so it was a sensible adjustment that paid dividends. For the Wolfpack, it was outside zone at volume with a dash of counter and duo as a garnish, and Scott and Gause ran through the Spiders like shit through a tin horn, as Nick Saban would say.

This is outside zone from a two tight-end set out of the pistol formation. Kamen Smith (79) does a fantastic job here of capturing the outside shoulder of 8. He is quite good here. 9 is unassigned, and the movement from the line gets Scott to him with barely any contact. Scott then breaks his tackle and the horse is out the gate. I’m not sure this is that impressive of a broken tackle, but it’s a broken tackle nonetheless. This is how you get an explosive.

It was fun to watch and cathartic, and the Wolfpack offense is now averaging an impressive 40.5 points per game! I’m not sure there is too much to take away from this. We also talked about it on last week’s Lotcast episode that State could pretty easily run for 200 yards if it wanted to. It did that, twice. The offensive line looked good, the backs were efficient all game, Richmond’s run fits and tackling were consistently terrible, and State just dominated in every aspect on the ground.

I was hoping for CJ Bailey to throw 30+ times. He ended up 13/17, and I’m not sure he even got that much out of this. He looked solid working through some split-field quick game concepts, and he was very comfortable in the boot concepts discussed above. Accounting for screens, pop passes, and boots, Bailey barely had 10 true dropbacks, which is where he really struggled at UVA.

He was aggressive, which was nice to see. Bailey took a shot on almost every play that had a legitimate vertical component. There was virtually zero checking down of the football and a lot more belief in guys like Keenan Jackson to make plays in man coverage. Some plays were made, too.

The aggression was the growth from game one for Bailey. He had six attempts on vertical routes in the one half he played. When you break it down by concept, there’s no question he wanted the big throws, something that hasn’t always been the case with this quarterback. This is the best example.

This is sail, which we covered last week as well. Bear with me on the long-winded explanation. There are 3 routes to this play that you will see at the bottom of the screen. A clearout vertical, an out-breaker at around 15 yards, and a flat route. The clearout is designed to carry the roof of the defense so that the other two routes can create vertical conflict for the underneath zone. The clearout rarely ever gets thrown. The scenarios where you might see it are in press cover 1 or cover 2. If you identify cover 2 here, there will be a window between the corner in the flat and the safety over the top that you can fit this in. It requires being decisive in coverage ID and in the throw. CJ does a good job with that part of the process, and he fires the cover 2 hole shot. This is an aggressive throw and it’s not one he has made often in his career.

It does not connect, either because of accuracy or because he was expecting Chance Robinson to throttle down in the hole. I do not know which. Execution is lacking, but the want-to was at least there.

The execution needs to come around, though. As mentioned, Bailey threw six vertical routes in the first half. He was 2/6 and both completions would be low-graded throws. The junior QB was inaccurate down the field. It just didn’t matter in some instances because Richmond was government-certified garbage.

Here’s your 1v1 shot for Keenan Jackson.

Jackson makes a good adjustment here, but this is definitely underthrown. The DB is in phase, meaning he’s within a yard of Jackson. He should be able to turn and look for this ball, but if he’s going to play it like he’s out of phase, he needs to play through the hands of the receiver. Neither happens. He gets lost and just kind of throws his arm in the air and prays to as many gods as he can. You’re probably not getting away with this against Louisville.

This is 4 verticals against quarters from Richmond.

This isn’t man coverage, but it essentially plays out that way when you run 4 verticals against quarters. Jackson’s vertical will convert to a bender through the post area against this two-high defensive look, and he wins big. You can see it right as he leaves the frame. The ball gets thrown pretty far behind him, and you could even argue it’s a little late, although Bailey does have to climb a bit because Rico Jackson loses bad in protection. These are details that don’t matter against Richmond, but you notice them when the windows get tighter.

One place I think Bailey has been strong so far this year is in the quick game concepts. These are generally split-field reads, meaning he picks a side pre-snap. He’s been efficient in these in both games. I think he likes this stuff because it’s less susceptible to pressure.

Bailey can take the screen at the bottom or read out the double slant at the top. He just reads the slants inside out and gets to the outside route after the underneath zone defender works inside of the inside slant.

My hope coming out of this is that the traditional run game will create a strong base the offense can be built around. Explosiveness in the passing game is still a big concern. That’s not just a criticism of CJ Bailey specifically. Keenan Jackson flashed a few different times on Friday, but that is the only inkling of a playmaker at receiver that State has found so far.

I recommend not overreacting to this game much the same as the Virginia loss. I picked State to go 7-5. After Virginia, that was not adjusted. It is still not adjusted. Both of those games probably represent the far ends of what this team actually is.

The storyline for me is that an identity started to take shape on Friday with State being an outside zone team that used counter and duo as a changeup. This offensive line looks to be pretty solid, and Scott was back to executing well against the Spiders. He looked a little sped up on some of his reads at UVA. Both backs were crisp for State as they ran up the score in the first half.

This feels like a cornerstone of who State should be. Kamen Smith has come on strong, Andersen has looked good, Spike is obviously good (and we’ll keep our fingers crossed for good news on his early exit) and the backs should be the high-floor executors we expected to see. If State can run the football, it will make the quarterback’s life a million times easier too.

I’ll be interested to see how State attacks Vanderbilt. I think you can establish some base offensive principles as a pistol zone team. You can challenge the eyes of the second level with jet motion, and use that to also run split zone, counter, and even duo as State did a couple times against Richmond. The tight ends, particularly Preston Douglas, have to block better. But I liked the approach from the offense more than the UVA game, where State ran a lot more read option stuff and its standard issue pure progression Y cross plays that we’ve bored you with talking about for the last year.

Two things can be true. This game does not reveal a lot about NC State because of the quality of the opponent, but this game also was very enjoyable and record-breaking, and that has value. Hopefully, the value comes from the mental reset it enables after everything went sideways instantly in week zero. State gets Vanderbilt next, which felt like the most surefire loss on the schedule prior to the season. The Commodores suddenly look pedestrian, and I am dangerously close to picking NC State to win.

Tell us your thoughts on the Richmond win and the Vanderbilt game in the comments!

One would assume that the Pack will be able to win this game, if they don’t then we’ve got bigger problems. It’s less about whether they win the game, but more about how they win. The TRT crew went over much of these in the latest episode of the Lotcast:

Last time, I wrote that the vibes are kinda weird going into this football campaign. People didn’t know how to evaluate the appropriate expectation level with all the new pieces. Now, the vibes are way worse, as the Pack will now have to build and buy back goodwill, and thus vibes, from the fan base. Dave Doeren has never lost to an FCS opponent, and it doesn’t seem like that’s at risk today. The goodwill will come if the team can demonstrate a higher skill level in their execution than they did against the Wahoos. Even still, it’s unlikely to move the needle all that much. Most people think Miami is one of the best teams in the country. The Hurricanes last night beat Florida A&M 77-7. Does that score make in believe more in Miami than they already did? Probably not. The same applies to NC State, although if they win 77-7 that will positively raise a lot of eyebrows.

A blowout to that magnitude is highly unlikely given Dave Doeren’s track record. In 2024, NC State the Pack beat Western Carolina 38-21. Fans may remember that State was actually LOSING this game 14-7 after the first quarter. Last year, their outing against Campbell went much smoother, 56-10. But that score didn’t serve as much of a bellwether for the team the rest of the season.

All that to say, we can’t take a ton from these games, we’re just looking at how the players execute. We would also hope they can get out comfortably and without injury to begin preparations for the game down in Nashville against Vanderbilt.

Let’s get to the weekly picks!

The team doesn’t have the utmost confidence that the Wolfpack offense will be able to produce a mountain of points to cover their 33.5 point spread. But we shall see in just a few hours now! Give your pick in the poll below, and any predictions in the comments!

Scheme multiplicity is the most notable part of the DJ Eliot defense, and it did create some issues for the Virginia offensive line, even if it was ultimately forgettable because of everything else that happened. If you’re a listener of The Lotcast, you know that one thing we discussed in the preseason was the possibility of State using more movement on the defensive line to attack run concepts. This was indeed a part of the State run defense in the first game.

Movement, run stunts, reductions . . . these are all words that mean similar but slightly different things. When we use them here, what we’re talking about is defensive linemen fitting or attacking different gaps in the run game than they are aligned in presnap. The effects of this can be similar to a coverage disguise for a quarterback. It creates different front structures and different problems for the blockers, and it adds a layer of unpredictability that requires post-snap recognition. It also creates structural advantages against specific types of plays and can be used to attack offensive tendencies.

Let’s take a look at two examples, starting with this zone run early in the second half.

Virginia is going to run outside zone weak, which is to the offense’s left. State is going to execute what’s called a “blood stunt,” which shifts the strength of the defensive line via a simple movement from the interior. You can see this illustrated above, with both interior linemen working one gap over at the snap. This pushes the strength of the front from strong to weak and changes the front from an “over” to an “under”

Both Isaiah Shirley (88) and Omarion Abraham (56) are going to work one gap to their right at the snap. Abraham is going to be a two-gap player, which you can see illustrated on the above graphic. His job is to control the body of the guard, post up in his right-side gap, and be able to rip back into his left-side gap.

Isaiah Shirley is a one-gap player. His job is to get penetration right through the A gap, which you can see illustrated above too.

Here, you can see Shirley get penetration and Abraham post up in his frontside gap. The penetration is going to cut the ball off and force it to the backside. Remember, this play is ran to the offense’s left. When this type of movement works, it builds a wall on the frontside of the play and pushes the ball backside. The linebackers can fall back to the ball and make the tackle, and State will also insert a safety post-snap opposite the flow of the movement to even the numbers. This safety is ultimately who the defense is funneling the ball to.

Above, you can see the wall. Richardson (15) has fallen back with the ball while maintaining leverage over the outside hip of the back. Aguirre (0) likely would have fallen back, but the double team on Chase Bond didn’t break and Bond did not get any penetration, so he stayed front side. On the far left of the screen, you can see Ronnie Royal inserting and making the tackle.

Here’s the full play in GIF form.

This fits well for State. If you pay attention to the back’s eyes, you can see him read across the line before cutting it all the way back. It gains six yards because Chase Bond was displaced on the backside and the RB was able to get vertical on the cutback. As stated, Virginia’s offensive line had plenty of wins.

The very next play, UVA ran a weak zone concept again, and NC State used a different kind of movement to cut it off.

Omarion Abraham (56) and Ke’Von Carter (42) will slant inside at the snap. The offensive linemen that these two players cross the face of will have to work against the flow of the play to pass these guys off and/or prevent penetration from the slant. This allows the linebackers to fill cleanly.

You can see the tackle and the center that had to work opposite the play. UVA handles this better on the edge than it does in the middle. Omarion Abraham does a fantastic job on this play, and his slant holds the center because the backside guard is not able to engage him cleanly. There is a lot of stress put on that guard here to recognize this, and the center gets left in a no-win situation as he tries to get eyes to Popo Aguirre. Richardson sets the edge and Aguirre fills the A gap that looks very enticing at first. There is nowhere to run.

Here’s the full play.

Abraham is so good here, but even if he doesn’t make the play, the ball has nowhere to go.

Run stunts haven’t been a big part of State’s defensive structure under Doeren, mostly because Tony Gibson didn’t use them often. These are simply scheme elements. They aren’t good or bad by default. But when they work, you can see how. The other advantage of using them is it makes the defense less predictable. State rotates through different fronts in both even and odd spacing, and the blood stunt is an example of changing your front structure post-snap.

Keeping the offense guessing has obvious advantages, especially when you’re undermanned. There is no question that Virginia’s offensive line was better than NC State’s defensive line, but the movement in the examples above can steal plays and be an equalizer in situations like that.

You could say that NC State wasn’t ready to play in Charlottesville on Saturday. You could say the defense looked spineless against the run. You could say the offense was DOA and put the defense in bad spots. You could say Virginia was a matchup problem built to expose NC State’s weaknesses. These are all things you could say, and if you say any of them, you would be right.

Bright spots are not easy to come by after Saturday’s 34-8 loss, in which NC State finally got to its week zero national showcase game after the long offseason and then apparently blacked out for three hours.

Virginia is a football team that has a clear understanding of its strengths and a clear process to enable those strengths and build spokes off them. I’m not really sure what NC State’s identity is. That distinction really showed on the field.

Exactly what we expected

If you listened to The Lotcast the last couple weeks, you know that Virginia did exactly what we expected. The Hoos came out firing with a lot of designed quarterback runs, many out of 12 and 21 personnel, and they laid the game at the feet of their geriatric offensive line. Then, UVA took its play action shots when they got into 2nd and short situations.

For NC State, the goal was straightforward; hold the line on early downs and make Beau Pribula be a dropback passer in high leverage situations. Beau Pribula is bad in these scenarios, as is evidenced by his entire career. UVA was 3/14 on 3rd down and did not convert a third down through the air.

Pribula, though, ran for over 100 yards as the Hoos were constantly in manageable down and distance. State’s chances hinged on slowing down the ground game, and the quarterback run was the wrench in that goal for the Pack. Based on State’s alignments in the first half, Doeren’s halftime interview, and Popo Aguirre’s post-game interview, I am not sure NC State was prepared for what a cornerstone this would be for Virginia. Predictably, the Cavaliers ran wild and then leveraged that into two key explosive pass plays.

Doeren called the quarterback run in the postgame “the great equalizer.” This is one of the hardest things in football to defend. Any time you run the quarterback, you create or add to a numbers advantage in the box. State was caught in this situation a lot with Beau Pribula, which should have been predictable, but it really struggled to fit the QB runs, especially when it tried to do so from a two-high shell. State played more one-high looks in the second half and was a little better. Virginia does deserve a lot of credit. It wasn’t just that it ran the quarterback. It had a lot of fun ways of doing that. Truly, it would be entertaining to watch if it wasn’t functioning as an uppercut to your favorite team.

Disruption is of course the great equalizer of the great equalizer. If you can disrupt the flow of the play with some one-on-one wins, that can save the day. If you just stalemate every block, you must be gap sound and have a plan to even the math. State did not manage to get that far.

State is at a numbers disadvantage here in the box. UVA has two backs and a tight end. This is eight potential gaps, nine if you run the quarterback. State has six guys in the box, the nickel as the apex, and two safeties at ten yards. Harvey Dyson is the end man on the far side. The safety on the far hash is Brody Barnhardt. Dyson is going to work inside of the tight end’s block as he pulls and leads. This is called a spill technique and it’s meant to push the ball horizontally toward a player outside the box. He is expecting somebody outside of him. This would be Barnhardt. His job is, I believe, to come down and make Dyson right, but he’s super late and the ball spills to nobody. All the backfield action seems to have messed with his eyes. This play is called “split zone bluff.” In a normal split zone play, the tight end’s job would be to block Dyson, but here he’ll slip that and lead into space. There is nobody in the space for NC State

This is probably avoidable if you put an extra safety in the box. If you do that and you start cheating with the other safety, you open yourself up to a lot of vertical passing game, but that felt like the right bet for NC State.

You can see the problem develop with the quarterback run, and you can also see bad execution. The second-level players and the DBs were bad against the run from an individual technique perspective. State was already under the gun with the problem of facing a great offensive line and a running back playing quarterback, but it did not help itself with execution.

This one State actually fits relatively well with Popo setting the edge outside the tight end and AJ Richardson filling inside. Richardson just flies in though and never gets square to the runner. He has to trust that Aguirre will make the tackle if the runner gets outside of him. The double team from UVA’s right guard and right tackle also moves Joseph Adedire about six yards, creating all that extra space that Richardson has to tackle Pribula in. There isn’t a structural error here, but there are losses and execution errors.

State allowed 258 rushing yards. That is too many rushing yards to allow.

The Offense was Somehow Worse

Debuting a third-year O’Brien Award Watchlist starter at quarterback, State put together an offensive performance that the Iowa Hawkeyes would be jealous of. CJ Bailey was bad. His new group of skill position players were also bad. It was a perfect storm of stink that led to 84 passing yards and Vander Ploog’s 21-yard catch outpacing the totals of every other receiver on the field. About the only thing that wasn’t bad on the offense was the line.

Virginia’s connectivity and route distributions were really impressive in zone. It was an excellent performance from the Cavaliers’ back end, which I know some people will probably interpret as an excuse, so allow me to say that both State’s receivers and its quarterback deserve low grades.

Bailey’s mechanical issues have long contributed to an inconsistent arm. This did not change at the start of year three. The few windows that were available to him ended with the ball in the dirt, occasionally after it hit the arm of a defensive lineman.

Let’s start here. This one is easy.

This is called a sail concept. CJ is reading the depth of the defender that’s at the numbers around the 15-yard line. He is throwing off of that guy’s depth. The go route runs the safety off and the read defender climbs to the shallow route, so a huge window opens up. This is as easy of a defender read as you will get. Read is good. Timing is good. Throw is bananas.

This is an explosive play that turns into a punt. Bailey actually does a good job of seeing the coverage rotation here. The route he throws would function as a clear out against cover 3, which is possible here with UVA in a single-high look. They rotate to what looks like cover 6, and this is the throw. It just isn’t accurate.

The receivers struggled as well, particularly some of the outside receivers that were new to the roster.

This is a three verticals play against a quarters shell. Virginia is aligned in a quarters look presnap, but it has both corners pressed on the outside receivers. These are opportunities for speed and size to win on the outside without safety help if you occupy the safety. In this case, UVA does that for State by rotating and playing cover 1, which is man coverage with one safety. You can see Bailey look at the safety toward the bottom of the screen first to ID the coverage postsnap.

He’s just picking which outside receiver matchup he likes here, and that’s likely a presnap decision. This is why Tyran Warren is on the team, to run go routes in one-on-ones. He’s fast, but he doesn’t win off the release and creates no separation. Then he misreads the ball in the air.

State wanted playmakers on the outside this season. That’s why it went after Warren and Dozier. It tried manufacture some opportunities like the one above, but the returns were negative each time. About the only receiver who did anything of note was Victor Snow. He had one catch for five yards, but there were some good routes out there. I do still expect Snow to have a good year in the end.

I didn’t think Bailey failed to throw the ball to a ton of wide open receivers in this game, but he definitely didn’t fire off some available throws. He missed some, which you’ll see below, but there also was very little separation against man coverage and the UVA zone structures were strong. The dig route is a great cover 3 killer but the corners got great breaks on those routes several times when State tried to run some form of it. This passing game mess was really the perfect storm of poor quarterback play, poor receiver play, and a high-end performance from the Virginia defense.

Here are a couple more clips for the clip inclined.

I think this is a bad progression from Bailey. The leverage is bad on the corner route at the bottom, but he doesn’t ditch it fast enough. There is a throw to be made to the crosser if you get there on time, which would be the third progression, but he’s late and in no position to throw the ball by the time he gets there because his feet are moving around too much.

This next one is an example of the quality of the defense. There is nowhere to go with the ball here.

Cover 3 “buzz” from UVA, which is a rotation to cover 3 from a two-high safety look. The corner to the short side sits on the comeback. He is not concerned about getting beat deep. The linebacker tracks Preston Douglas (19) on the drag. The “buzz” safety looks up the deeper cross. The corner to the field is in the window for the backside dig route. There is nowhere for this ball to go.

This one is a QB miss. This is a standard mesh flat play with the flat route building the bottom of a hi-lo read. Those crossers are supposed to pick each other against man coverage, but sit down and form a triangle with the guy at the 35 yard line against zone. There are two different points on this triangle that are open once Bailey comes back to it. You need to throw this ball.

Conclusion

The size of final margin was a bit surprising, but the result of this game had to be predictable. There were little pockets of hype with this team, but it seemed like almost all of it came from national people who just saw CJ Bailey and the schedule. The question marks with this group ran deep. State had to hit on a lot of things to be the kind of team that could capitalize on this schedule. It’s only played one game so far, but it stunk in that game real bad. None of those questions were answered. In fact, more have now been created.

If you’ve been keeping up with the Lotcast the last few weeks (as I’m sure you have), we’ve been breaking down all the aspects of the team between the vibes (with guest Cory Smith of Pack Power), the offense (with guest Alex Gee of Inside Pack Sports), and the defense. We went through the preseason picks, and we previewed the week 0 opponent UVA specifically.

The vibes are kina weird going into this football campaign. I feel like most of the fans have accepted the position Dave Doeren puts the team in at this point. In year 14 (wow), everyone knows what to expect. When I was doing my preseason picks, I inadvertently ended up with 10 wins and a 7-1 conference record. This was mostly due to the perception of the schedule being very manageable. But then I remembered that Dave Doeren simply does not win 10 games, so I had to go and find two more losses to add since that just feels more accurate.

I struggle to identify just where the vibes are at, and I think that is in line with most opinions on this team. There’s been a large amount of turnover, the portal additions didn’t win anyone over, and it’s hard to predict what we’ll see out of some of the returning players. So instead, I’m not going to assign a vibes level before any games have been played, I will let them come to us after each game. You have to build the vibes, they are not given.

Let’s get to the preseason picks!

As you can see, most of the team has a similar vision for how this season is going to go. I’m sure that means we’ll all be proven right and everything will go according to our predictions.

On the eve of the first game, the team put their final predictions specifically for the matchup against Virginia.

Do I think it’s very likely that NC State will win? Probably not, given Dave Doeren’s track record vs Power Conference opponents within the first 3 weeks of a season:

• ACC: 4-2

  • Boosted by the Covid season being an ACC-only schedule, NC State went 2-1 to start that season. Wins over Wake Forest and Pitt, loss to VT.

• Big 12: 1-1

  • Blowout loss to WVU, decent win over Texas Tech

• SEC: 0-3

  • South Carolina, Mississippi State, Tennessee

• Big 10/PAC 12: NA

• Overall: 5-6

We’re back at it, folks: taking stock time. Where is State better or worse than last year? This week, we’re checking out the defense.

I’ve found this to be a helpful way to understand 1) who is playing what in this wacky transfer portal world with so many new faces, and 2) where strengths and weaknesses might lie with the team heading into August.

Year 1 in the D.J. Eliot tenure was not perfect on the field. It was heartbreaking off of it.

Eliot came to Raleigh looking to run a new system, with new faces from coaching staff and personnel perspective, and he did so navigating some of the most adverse circumstances I can imagine any human being navigating. His daughter Drue lost her battle with cancer at just 18 years old on September 26th. I would highly recommend ​reading this story.​

To say that I’m rooting hard for this side to take a massive step forward would be an understatement. There’s legitimate hope for that for many reasons, but among them is the fact that State just wasn’t very good last year defensively. It’s much easier to make statistical progress when you’re trying to bounce off the lows.

My word for this unit in 2026 is Rebound. There’s plenty of room to bounce back from last year’s performance. There are lots of warranted question marks on this side of the ball, but I think this is a group with playmakers at each level and a nice blend of high upside youth and older faces that can make this group a tougher out.

First, a look at last year’s unit:

2025 Strengths

• Limiting the explosive run - State was in the top 20th percentile of explosive runs allowed

• Respectable in forcing long distance 3rd down conversions, in the 63rd percentile in average third down distance. The flip side to that is…

2025 Weaknesses

• “Get off the field dude.” - State was in the 12th percentile last year on late downs success rate. Giving up first downs and touchdowns late was a problem, resulting in a common phrase in my household

• Down to down effectiveness - State was in the 21st percentile last year in non-explosive EPA plays. State yielded a ton even on plays that weren’t backbreaking. Which makes the back breakers hurt even more.

• Havoc - State was 90th in Havoc rate last year (pass deflections, turnovers, and negative plays.) There’s got to be a major step forward this year.

Truthfully, State’s defense graded out really poorly in most spots. There’s got to be steps forward in lots of areas if State is going to challenge for ten wins.

Interior Tackles (NT, DT) 📉

If you polled Pack fans on the group that worries them the most on the team, the front four would likely be the top response.

That’s not out of nowhere. State returns just a few hundred snaps here from a year, and is asking a true sophomore to be a huge piece of this defense.

Josiah Victor is the young buck who currently projects to lead the Nose in snaps. I really liked what I saw from him last year as a true freshman, and year 2 of major game action is where we see large jumps for most players, especially in the trenches. But going from a 25% snap rate guy to a 60-70% one is a different task.

Behind him, we don’t know a ton - Ka’Tron Evans has had his eligibility yo-yo’d a bit, and while he’s eligible for Virginia, there’s no telling what will happen after that. AJ Prim is a former Junior College transfer who has worked hard and has cross trained at Nose and Tackle.

Just because you haven’t seen a guy perform live in game, doesn’t mean he can’t. But the lack of proven answers here - particularly with Virginia’s uber experienced offensive line looming - is worrying for State’s big early games.

At the tackle spot, Isaiah Shirley is firmly the guy. His pick-6 last year in Winston-Salem was one of the highlights of the season, but there’s room to be more consistent. Behind him are more young, unproven names that have flashed - Colby Cronk and his record setting power clean, the aforementioned AJ Prim, Omarion Abraham. How many of these guys are ready to go and play meaningful snaps?

This is the question mark group. Replacing Brandon Cleveland’s production here won’t be easy, and you’re going to have to live with some growing pains as the young talent gets up to Division 1 speed.

It wouldn’t totally surprise me if this group is good, but there’s not a lot to go off of before week 0.

The Ends (DE, Jack Backer) ➡️

Those front four questions extend to the edges of the defensive line, but I think there’s more room for optimism here than one might think at first glance.

At defensive end, Joseph Adedire (uh-day-dee-ray) is fellow TRT writer Alec Lower’s favorite football player on the planet, which is a good thing. His film is solid. He’s had limited opportunities in Raleigh after transferring in from Texas Tech because of injuries, but he’s really flashed in those limited snaps.

Adedire was State’s fourth highest graded PFF player on defense last year, albeit in those limited snaps, but as a former Big 12 All Conference name as a freshman, it’s clear he is effective when he’s healthy.

He’ll have Chase Bond behind him, another young player who has gotten rave reviews this fall camp. I was pleasantly surprised with what we saw from him last year as a true freshman who came in with zero recruiting pedigree. If he is legitimately pushing Adedire in camp like we’ve heard, and it’s because both of them are playing well, I’m feeling much better about this spot.

At Jack - a stand-up linebacker / end hybrid - Harvey Dyson comes in from Tulane. Dyson was incredible last year as a pass rusher, with one of the highest PFF pass rushing grades in the country and 11.5 TFLs. He’s bigger and more athletic than Cian Slone, and he will have every opportunity to help plug the Havoc hole this defense had last year. State has got to find a way to get home this year.

Sterling Dixon is another guy who can contribute here. Last year’s Alabama transfer was unable to play due to injury, but he’s been another guy receiving a ton of fall camp compliments.

I think both of these guys - plus freaky athletic Ke’Von Carter - offer more athleticism and pass rush ability than what Cian Slone offered last year. Slone pressured the quarterback 40 times last year, but only tallied two sacks. He was, however, a really smart player who could also play the run reasonably well, and his motor never quit. Hopefully the athleticism buff here can account for a potential lack of effectiveness against the run.

In totality, I think this group is close to a “neutral” or push from last year’s group. It could be that it takes a minute for the youth to get going, and what looks like a below-average unit at the start of the year really blossoms into a top third ACC unit - that isn’t likely, but I could see it.

Interior Linebacker ➡️

Anytime you can get a player who played meaningful snaps in a National Championship game with good tape, you take it excitedly. Popo Aguirre comes in from Miami slated to lead this group in snaps. State’s linebackers pretty much do not come off the field under Dave Doeren, and when you add that Popo has already been named a captain despite being in Raleigh for less than 7 months, I’d be surprised if we saw anyone else lead this position in snaps.

Joining him as a projected starter is AJ Richardson, the former FCS All American who missed a large portion of last year due to injury. I was shocked to see that he only logged 90 snaps last year - it felt like he played more than that. It was good to see him return for the UNC game, and it doesn’t sound like health is going to be an issue for him this year.

Neither of these two are superior athletes, but are sound, typically gap responsible players who are sure tacklers. I think these two are in for big statistical years given the aforementioned tendency to not pull backers off the field.

The first reserve you’ll see though is Da’Kaari Nelson, a former top 250 linebacker recruit who transferred in from Penn State. This is a very large dude who has had 72 total snaps at linebacker in three years. A complete mystery box.

Ziggy Moore is a true freshman who is reportedly flying all over the place and could be a star down the line. Maybe you see his role grow in the second half of the year as he gets more settled into game weeks.

With State’s reliance on a handful of guys, I expect this room to be as effective as it was last year, though depth is a question. And this room unfortunately did go 4 guys deep last year, pulling departed Kenny Soares from a pass rushing role into a full time backer. Fingers crossed this room stays healthy.

Nickel 📈

State’s Nickel was previous DC Tony Gibson’s “most important position” to his 3-3-5 defense. Tyler Baker-Williams is the guy I immediately think of as the standard for what we’ve seen

I think it’s likely State has its best Nickel position since TBW in 2022, and it’s from two faces that saw a lot of growing pains and unexpected snaps last year.

Jackson Vick is in year 5, and while the first half of the year was pretty rough for him, he improved down the stretch. He’s cross training at Nickel and at Corner, and with ~800 career snaps under his belt.

You’ve also got Assad Brown returning. Brown was forced into action last year when the Safety room suffered some sort of magical injury blight, and he played really well against expectations in that spot.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Vick moved around as State looks to get its best five defensive backs on the field. When you’re taking one of your nickels and moving him around so another guy from this room can get on the field, that gives me confidence that this room is a strength of the defense. In fact, the multiplicity of this entire secondary is one of the biggest reasons for optimism on this side of the ball.

Safety 📈

Last year’s Safety group wasn’t the most talented, and it was ravaged with injury. It was a crazy combination that led to younger players like Tristan Teasdale and Assad Brown playing in spots nobody would’ve foreseen coming into the season.

Oh, the impact a single offseason can have.

State landed all-name and potential all-conference candidate King Mack, they return numerous players, and suddenly Safety looks like a strength.

Mack has played at Penn State and Alabama and is an old dude. Experience in the secondary is always appreciated, and Mack brings 800ish total snaps to Safety over three years. He flies around the field as a true, rangy safety and is unafraid to get involved in the run game. Having a legitimate playmaker with elite speed and athleticism is a welcome change here.

Joining him in starting role appears to be Ronnie Royal, who also rode the youth rollercoaster last year. His struggles have never been related to skill or physical traits - he will make plays nobody else on this roster makes - but instead have been between the ears. If he’s “right” in where he ends up more often than he’s wrong, he’s going to make some insane plays that you won’t see from anybody else.

Behind these two is a deep bench of guys who got playing time last year. Brody Barnhardt got hurt and was on a similar learning track as Royal. Tristan Teasdell was flying around last year as a true freshman at 170 hustling and doing his best. Assad Brown even got run here and actually played really well.

The point is that, while it almost can’t get worse (famous last words), there’s real room for optimism with this group. Mack brings “top 2 league” experience and leadership, and Royal brings freaky athleticism. I don’t see this group as some unstoppable force, but I do think you’ll see improved consistency and some really exciting plays given the personnel.

Cornerback 📉

There has been some crazy hype around Brian Nelson this offseason. Last year he was the clear #2 corner behind Devon Marshall Island, and it sounds like he’s taking a meaningful step forward as this year’s alpha. He was up and down with mostly good spots, but he had a team low 29/100 rushing defense grade per PFF, as he showed at times a hesitancy to get dirty and missed eight tackles. Still, his tape shows a guy whose highs are really high, and the hype around him is serious.

Continuing on the theme of “a known quantity next to a bunch of question marks” on this side of the ball: CB2. There’s several candidates to take this role over:

• Jaren Sensabaugh - it sounds like the former Missouri transfer is the leading candidate here. He’s got an NFL frame at 6’2” 200 pounds (and a former NFL dad) and looked really good in the scrimmage a few weeks back.

• Ondre Evans - another former SEC transfer, Evans has the “best” recruiting profile as a top 100 recruit in the 2024 class. The former Georgia Bulldog has struggled with injuries - if he can stay healthy, his ceiling is the highest of the group.

• Caden Gordon - every year there’s an “under the radar” name that emerges and surprises. Gordon switched from Wide Receiver just three years ago and is still growing and improving - the sophomore is another name to watch and will certainly get rotational snaps

Jackson Vick has also spent a fair amount of time this offseason cross training here and at Nickel and should be able to contribute if State wants to get a certain group of guys on the field.

Jamel Johnson is back on the team, but with where the current NCAA circus around eligibility sits, he’s not eligible to play at the time of this writing.

Still, this spot - although unproven - seems to be in a reasonably good spot. I’m high on Sensabaugh and think this group in totality can rise up and be close to neutral year over year, despite my “📉” rating.

Wrapping up this side of the ball, we’ve got:

• 2 positions trending up 📈

• 2 positions trending down 📉

• 2 spots that looks neutral ➡️

It wouldn’t take a lot for this defense to be better as a whole. Last year when State hired D.J. Eliot, I put these numbers together to spot trends in his defenses. His teams mostly saw significant from year one to year two - that makes sense for most coordinators worth hiring - and I’m a believer that this trend will continue.

I also hope we see the trend of a simpler defensive structure. Eliot tried to employ a lot of more complex rule based coverages last year before simplifying things down the stretch. That allowed guys to cut loose and play ball, and while there are strategic advantages to the multiplicity of what Eliot was trying to do last year, I’m fearful of employing that same structure with so many big games in the first half of the season.

The question is how much improvement can this side incur. If State moves from a ~bottom 30ish defense to a top 75ish defense, it’s going to need its offense to take a leap even from last year to even think about approaching 10 wins. If it can jump inside the top 60 or higher, it will be outperforming most preseason expectations and give State a solid base to work with.

I don’t think this unit will be elite, but I do think there’s enough growth year over year to be a fun watch. And it doesn’t need to be said again, but I’m rooting like hell for these guys. All of them.

Here is every NC State team’s record in one-possession games during the Dave Doeren era. Bolded in red are the seasons where State was one game shy of playing in the ACC Championship and/or winning ten games.

2013: 1-1

2014: 3-0

2015: 0-1

2016: 2-4

2017: 3-3

2018: 2-1

2019: 1-1

2020: 4-2

2021: 3-2

2022: 4-2

2023: 4-1

2024: 3-4

2025: 2-1

In 2018, the Miami Hurricanes went 4-0 in one-possession games on its way to its first ever ACC Championship Game appearance. In 2021, Wake Forest went 3-1 in one-possession games, but 3-0 in the conference, and backed into its second-ever ACC Championship game appearance. In 2022, UNC went 6-2 in one-possession games on its way to its second-ever ACC Championship Game appearance. In 2023, Louisville went 5-1 in one-possession games on its way to its first ever ACC Championship Game appearance.

There are more to name, but you get the point.

Whenever a team loses a tight game, it’s usually the final inflection point that gets the “decisive moment” treatment. While technically accurate, the reality is that there are 47 other things over the course of that game which could have changed the outcome. That list includes everything from minor coaching decisions to quarterback reads to penalties to dropped passes to whether or not the school remembered to put a camera on the goal line.

Natural variance, or “luck” to put it crudely, is a driver of several of these things (not all!). There is no way around it short of eliminating the element of chance. That’s the reason why so few teams could ever sustain a high winning percentage in one-score games over a multi-season sample. I once calculated every ACC team’s record in one-possession games over a ten-year span. Every team except Clemson, who played in far fewer of these games, recorded a winning percentage between .400 and .600.

Oftentimes, a special season means stealing as many tight games as you can before normal distribution comes knocking, and it will come knocking. The four teams mentioned above all started 9-1 or better before posting a combined 4-12 record over the last four games of their respective seasons. None won a title.

But that is the throughline with a lot of these average football programs that have won 10 games or been to the ACC Championship Game during the timeframe that NC State has failed to do that. They are playing and winning a lot of close games.

For the Wolfpack, the most notable seasons here are 2014 (3-0), 2020 (4-2), 2022 (4-2), and 2023 (4-1). 2014 can be tossed, as those wins came against Georgia Southern, Syracuse, and UCF. State was not that good, and it was easily beaten by most of the quality teams on the schedule.

State’s 4-1 effort in 2023 nearly carried it to the ACC Title Game, but even there, the devil is in the details. The Pack had fourth-quarter leads of 14, 17, and 21 in three of those four wins. You have to bend and crush those games to fit them into the “close game” drawer. State was 3-2 in games with a one-score margin entering the fourth quarter. If it was 4-1, it wins 10 at a minimum, and if that one more is the Louisville game, the Pack plays against a third-string quarterback in the ACC Championship.

2020 and 2022 were both pillars of resiliency for Doeren’s program. These teams were solid in close games. Unfortunately, State lost its starting quarterback before the season’s midpoint in both of those years. The Pack played six quarterbacks throughout those two seasons. It also played nine ranked teams over 23 regular season games. State got housed multiple times in each of these seasons as a result of those circumstances.

In the four opponent seasons listed at the top of this article, Miami, Wake Forest, UNC, and Louisville played a combined zero games without their starting quarterbacks and played a combined six ranked teams over 48 regular season games.

A formula to get over the hump as a sub-elite team should start to take shape here. First, you have to not suck. These teams were all flawed but all had stars and identities they could build around. Next comes the easy schedule. Then, you have to maintain relative health. Lastly, you have to win close games, which means you have to minimize the mistakes that flip these types of contests, put yourself in a position where you only require a reasonable amount of luck, and then hope that luck arrives. State has arguably had one season with all of these ingredients, which was 2023 with Brennan Armstrong.

A lot of people believe 2026 will be that kind of year for NC State. I am not among them at this time, but the ingredients are at least in stock. Doeren’s 14th team has one ranked opponent on the schedule, which is a barely-ranked Louisville team that comes to Raleigh. It’s pretty unlikely that State will suck. If the offensive line plays well, there is enough at quarterback and in the ground game to be a worthwhile offensive team. If it isn’t decimated by injuries, there’s a near guarantee that this year’s group will play in a lot of close games, and it has no excuse to ever get blown out. No ACC team on this schedule will dwarf the Wolfpack.

There are a lot of things you have to do right to finally get this done. It helps to have the football gods on your side, but you have to do your part too. The Pack cannot afford to operate another assembly line of comical errors like the one it ran so efficiently in Durham last year. It must control what it can control, something it hasn’t always done. But . . .

If it can be crisp and stay healthy as it works through this schedule that is decidedly low on daunt, maybe, just maybe, the football gods will shine upon NC State.

Welcome back, Ven-Allen Lubin.

Justin Gainey’s late grab of State’s suddenly eligible center from a year ago is a big win for the Pack’s frontcourt. A lot of sensible decisions were made trying to build this room, and there are plenty of sparks of optimism, but it still contended with near-zero power conference experience. Lubin is immediately a stabilizer and a floor raiser, particularly on offense.

The 5th-year senior had his best season last year as State’s only legitimate two-way post player. He improved as a screener, caught the ball better on the roll, and was already a high-end paint finisher. The result was an efficient pick-and-roll big who shot over 73% at the rim. Obviously, he was also a strong offensive rebounder, and those became the two main ways he would score: pick and roll and putbacks.

Lubin’s return creates something of a crowd in the frontcourt, but with the lack of ACC reps, it’s a crowd he likely leads. You’re obviously going to accept that. Edmead/Lubin pick and rolls figure to be a pretty exciting action for NC State, especially with the high-end shooting surrounding it. If Lubin can take another step and add more depth to his game as a roller, that’s icing, but he’s such a good finisher that a lot of times you’re okay with him going to the rim when a secondary pass is in play.

Admittedly, there is some clunkiness to the fit here. Most players that are suddenly eligible this late in the game will feature kind of incongruency with the rest of the roster, because unless you’re Will Wade, your roster is done. You built your hand and then someone handed you gave you an extra card.

Lubin’s role fit last year was great for him, and it helped create the strong season he had. I think he’s at his best as a pick-and-roll center and DHO initiator in a spread system. Like I said earlier, he’s a great finisher off the catch and has improved in a lot of ways as a screener. He can also handle the ball some, which enables him to attack out of DHOs. That’s a key enabler for limiting how teams can defend dribble handoffs. A zoom action for Edmead could be a dynamite play this year. Lubin’s ability to keep in these situations will make it harder for bigs to pressure the ball at the exchange, and Edmead sprinting through two screens only makes it harder to stay attached to him through the handoff. Here’s a video about what happens if Edmead can come off a screen into space.

Lubin makes a lot of sense in this same role this year, particularly on offense. He’s definitely undersized, but he tends to play bigger than he is on the boards and with the ball. The drawback here is really the downsized rim protection backing up a group of perimeter players that haven’t ever been great on-ball defenders. The other question would be minute share, as Lubin would displace many of Kyle Evans’ minutes.

A lot of people think Evans and Lubin should play together, which I’m sure will happen some too. That combo figures to elevate State as a rebounding team in obvious ways, and Lubin has flashed some rotational shot blocking that could up the ante for opposing guards in the paint. It would likely force him back into more switching situations. Teams would target that if they can create it, but I don’t think Lubin would be any more of a liability in those situations than Yalaho and Jurkovic.

The drawback here would be on offense, where having two non-shooting bigs on the floor would crunch the spacing some. The importance of shooting 1-4 can vary a little based on what kind of offense you run and how you initiate. If this is going to be Edmead/Adams/McNeil/etc. in a lot of ball screen actions, it’s important, because none of these guards carry paint finishing and traffic finishing as an elite trait. A packed paint for this group figures to be less navigable than it was for, say, Dereon Seabron or Quadir Copeland.

A two-big lineup would also change how Lubin (or Evans) fits into actions. Lubin’s elite efficiency metrics came from that center role last year. If you play him at “the 4,” you’ve changed a lot of the inputs that led to those numbers. These are not interchangeable roles in most modern offenses, including what we’ve seen from Anthony Goins. Lubin was good at what he did last year, which was play center in an offense that spaced the floor with 4 shooters and ran a lot of pick and roll. If you play him with Evans, how Lubin gets his shots will change, and that will naturally affect his efficiency as an offensive player.

Can the shot-volume wins from a better rebounding effort make up for whatever impact the two-big lineup has on the potency of the offensive actions? Will State change the expected offensive skeleton? Or will it simply rotate Evans and Lubin for the majority of the minutes, creating a strong center 1-2 punch that will keep the legs fresh? I think those are the fun questions we now get to answer with Lubin back in the fold.

To be crystal clear, this is an interesting discussion, and I’m here for interesting sports discussions. It’s not a complaint. There is some navigating to do now on how you best integrate Lubin into the roster, but it’s a good problem to have. None of this has gone over the head of the professional, highly-paid coaching staff that is compensated well to make these decisions. From the first day, there have been clear lines through all of this roster. That’s the thing I’ve appreciated the most about the offseason here. There is no chance they blew that up for no reason right at the end. Maybe some feelings get hurt, but State gets better with this.

When the College Football Playoff signs off for the year in January, I wonder how the heck I’m going to get through the next seven months. Then one day I wake up, and it’s August 13th. It’s about that time.

So, with only 15 days left until we see State and Virginia face off, I’m leaning into my annual tradition:going position by position and understanding if I think State is better or worse in each position group against the previous year, mainly looking at first and second stringers. Today we’re starting with the offense.

I’ve found this to be a helpful way to understand 1) who is playing where in this wacky transfer portal world with so many new faces, and 2) where strengths and weaknesses might lie with the team heading into late August.

Last year, I wrote that C.J. Bailey and crew would be tasked to lead that group if they were going to push past expectations. That is true once again in 2026, but Bailey will be doing it without many familiar names and pieces who have transferred out or moved on.

Up and down 2025

The Pack’s 2025 campaign on offense was largely good. State finished the year 30th in adjusted EPA (expected points added) per play, one of the best indicators of overall success for an offense. In Kurt Roper’s first year as a full time play caller for the Pack, that’s a pretty good result.

The issue was the consistency. State’s offense no showed games versus premier competition in Notre Dame and Miami, and it failed to meet the mark in a 23-21 loss at home to Virginia Tech, who had just fired their coach.

Hollywood Smothers was a revelation. After showing flashes in 2024, he solidified himself as one of the best backs in the country. Unfortunately he is wearing burnt orange and white right now, playing football in Austin, Texas.

That rushing success helped empower everything else on this offense. While C.J. taking another step is the most important step in State reaching its ceiling, I’d argue that keeping the ground game as effective as it was last year is how State prevents the floor from falling out from underneath it.

My word for the offense in 2026 is growth. I think there are real outcomes of this year’s season where State’s offense can be better than it was in 2025, as crazy as that might sound. This is year three of CJ and Kurt Roper working together. It’s going to require tangible growth and projection from a whole host of players, though - this isn’t a group I project to be elite from day one, but with youth and some of the pedigree entering the program via the portal, I could absolutely see this group lighting up the back half of the schedule.

2025 Strengths

• Pass effectiveness: State’s offense was largely effective through the air. They were 26th nationally in EPA/dropback, and ~80th percentile nationally in yards per dropback and passing EPA/play

• Explosive Plays: this didn’t necessarily square with my memory, but State was in the 87th percentile nationally in explosive play rate, and it came both on the ground and through the air.

• Late Downs: this unit did a lot of Houdini-ing last year. Will Wilson’s 73% success rate in his short yardage packages did a lot of work, and while State’s late downs success rate was only 56%, that’s impressive given a statistic we’ll see in the section below.

2025 Weaknesses

• Negative plays - State was 84th last year in Havoc Rate allowed. They were in the 13th percentile in stuff rate (runs that are stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.) Negative plays and turnovers were an issue for this group.

• Third down average distance - State was in the 22nd percentile nationally in average 3rd down distance last year. Certainly related to bullet number one.

• Meeting the occasion - more anecdotal than statistical, this side missed the mark in several spots: the snowball at Duke, an embarrassing loss at home to Virginia Tech, no shows against MIami and Notre Dame - there wasn’t enough consistency with this group week in and week out. But hey, that’s football. The other teams are trying, too.

This group was good last year, but for State to reach the ten win mark that Dave himself called out as meaningful this year, there’s another gear of consistency to reach.
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Now, the 2026 position groups:

Quarterback 📈

C.J. Bailey is back. C.J. has looked really good at times in his career, and he’s looked not as good at times in his career.

The main areas of improvement you’ll see on his tape are post snap decision making - read game decisions, late movement from safeties - and ball placement. But C.J. has shown tremendous growth since he first filled in for Grayson McCall as a wide eyed true freshman. His pre-snap reads, ability to run in both designed and scramble situations, and his touch have all improved drastically since his freshman year. He’s a good quarterback, and he has the potential to elevate himself into really good or great territory this year.

There’s some special stuff on these clips:

Battering ram Will Wilson is also back. Will ran for an absolutely silly 10 touchdowns and 3.4 yards per carry in short yardage situations when defenses knew what was coming. He converted 78% of his carries successfully. That was without any passing game elements. You figure a pop pass or a leaked tight end for a big play attempt are coming at some point.

There’s no sugar coating it: with this schedule, State should have the better quarterback room in all but one or two games this year. This is the room that has to step up again if they want to take advantage. With another offseason under both of these guys’ belts, this group should be better than they were in 2025.

Running Back 📉

There’s not much State could’ve reasonably done to not take a step back here. Hollywood Smothers is just different. But that doesn’t mean this room is going to be bad.

Hollywood was incredible, but he didn’t make it through an entire season in Raleigh fully healthy. We know Duke dealt with injuries in High School, but he’s had a light load so far in college. He made the most of his two major appearances last year, running for 7 yards per carry in his workhorse role against Georgia Tech and Memphis. Duke gets it done differently than Hollywood, but he actually forced similar Missed Tackle and Yards after Contact numbers. This is a guy more than capable of putting up 1,000 yards, if the opportunity is there.

But the full blown opportunity might not be there after all. Davion Gause comes over from North Carolina with nearly 150 college touches and plenty of experience. Interestingly enough, he was selected by the N.C. State staff as a pre-season All Conference selection for the media to pick from at ACC Media Days. That, plus some Fall Camp rumors and praise, indicates some signal from N.C. State’s staff that they’re confident in his ability to be more than just a back up.

There’s also a few younger players that could offer some upside here. Jonathan Paylor is a name most N.C. State fans know, and Deandre Desinor is a Sophomore that has flashed in practice. Is Paylor ready to go, and is the opportunity there this year?

I don’t think it’s reasonable to believe you’ll have Smothers’ game breaking potential on a down to down basis, but if Duke can stay healthy and Gause takes a step forward, I’m not sure the backslide from this position will be as bad as some might think.

Wide Receiver📉

This room has undergone the most change out of any position group on the roster.

Terrell Anderson and Noah Rogers are two departures projected to be top targets at Southern Cal and Alabama. Read that again. Wesley Grimes was hot wheels and explosive down the field, and he’s working to make the San Francisco 49ers roster. Teddy Hoffman is ineligible this year, which leaves Keenan Jackson as the sole returner from last year’s core group. That’s a ton of turnover.

But it’s not starting from scratch. The aforementioned Keenan Jackson is consistent and an adept blocker who should operate more naturally out wide this year. I’m also a believer that there’s some juice to what State has brought into the room via the portal. I’m a big fan of Victor Snow, an all conference 5’8” bolt of lightning from Buffalo who figures to be your starting slot. Jojo Trader is a “pedigree name” from Miami who played ball with C.J. growing up. Davion Dozier is a big play threat from App State that has turned some heads in camp.

We’ve also seen freshman wide receivers make big impacts out of seemingly nowhere. I wouldn’t be surprised if a guy like Tyreek Copper, who broke a gajillion records at Kinston last year, finds his way into the rotation and surprises.

This room doesn’t have the obvious fire power that the last two years have had, but the hope is chemistry with C.J. and experience help bridge that gap. I’m looking at Snow and Trader as two main sources of new optimism for me, but again, I think this group will naturally be a bit behind last year’s.

Tight End 📉

I can vividly remember the day Justin Joly committed to State out of the portal. It’s weird to think about him not playing football in red and white next year, though I suppose that’s the nature of the portal at this point - you better appreciate every snap, because it moves quick.

Despite Joly’s prolific playmaking, this wasn’t a one man room. Cody Hardy was a capital D dude. Watching him wrap block and move people places they did not want to go was very enjoyable. Both he and Dante Daniels were dynamite in spots as pass catchers too. Together, that is 1,034 snaps from last year’s Tight End position that you’re losing.

Of course that means that this group has new names abound. The most interesting name is probably Vander Ploog. That is an awesome name, and he comes with an awesome pedigree. Transferring in from Oregon as a former top 250 national recruit, Ploog has a serious ceiling as an athletic, pass catching tight end, but without any collegiate experience to back that up.

Hunter Provience is the opposite in many ways. Provience comes over a National Champion from FCS Montana State, and has excelled primarily as an in line tight end. Provience will profile mostly as a blocker - he’s less human road grader, like Cody Hardy, and more of a consistent, fundamentally sound guy who will be in the right place at the right time. Despite the FCS leap, he did garner a ton of SEC interest this portal cycle.

These two figure to be the headliners this year, but you’ll see Preston Douglas and Ian Flynt fighting for snaps. They totaled 57 snaps in 2025, so what will you see from these two?

You could feel confident in what you have by the end of the year, but this group is a total mystery box to me. A couple of years ago, State’s run struggles popped up frequently due to poor Tight End play. This group can’t afford to struggle with the same issues if State wants to reach its goals.

Left Tackle 📉

Jacarrius Peak will forever be one of my favorite N.C. State football players to watch. He was nasty. He was deceptively quick. He gave a ton of effort and “punched up” for his size. He was one of the highest paid players in the Transfer Portal this offseason for a reason, and I hate that he got hurt at South Carolina almost immediately.

Jimarrion McCrimmon will do his best to fill the gaping void that Peak leaves behind. The ECU transfer is getting some solid reports from fall camp are good - Coach Doeren recently said that he “doesn’t notice him” in practice, complimenting him on his consistency in keeping C.J. clean in practice.

I noticed on film that he has a tendency to under use his upper body as a blocker, with inconsistent hand placement at times. That’s a super coachable thing, and if he’s showing up consistently at fall camp, that’s a great sign. It’s one thing to do it against State’s defensive line in practice - who has turned over pretty much every important name on the line - and another to do it against a major step up in competition from the AAC.

I think this position could be an above average, or even good, ACC spot, but it would be tough to top Jacarrius.

Left and Right Guards ➡️

The interior of the offensive line last year was a bit of a mixed bag. Veteran Anthony Carter took a slight step back and missed a couple of games. Kamen Smith, Val Erickson, Yousef Mugharbil, and Spike Sowells all rotated in and got significant snaps. Spike was really good, but you need to see him slide to Center this year.

Smith and Mugharbil will get the first crack at left and right guard this year. Smith is an incredible athlete with a high ceiling, and Mugharbil has overcome some tremendous adversity to be in a position to start. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Rico Jackson break through by the end of the year. He can play guard or tackle, and he flashed at times last year. If he can be more consistent in the run game, I’d expect to see him starting at some point.

Overall I see this group offering more consistency than last year’s unit, but moving Spike from this position to Center keeps this a “Neutral” rating for me.

Center 📈

I was surprised at how capable Jalen Grant was last year, but this is Spike Sowells’ time. Spike showed flashes of an all conference performer in 2025 as a true freshman, and I expect him to be even more impactful moving back to his home base position as a Sophomore.

Spike’s physical tools are impressive, but watching his tape, you can see the football IQ and “coach’s son” impact immediately. By the end of the year, he was an effective communicator and reader of stunts and games from opposing defensive lines. I fully expect him to have the kind of year that helps formulate a reputation as State’s next All Conference caliber center.

Right Tackle 📈

Teague Andersen slots back into Right Tackle for his second year in Raleigh. Teague is a very large man who, by all accounts, handled the transition from Utah State to the ACC well. His PFF grade remained virtually the same overall despite the jump in competition.

He’s going to be a dependable anchor for this group. If he can continue taking steps forward as a fourth year player, and you see growth from Kamen Smith at right guard, the right side of this offensive line could be really fun to watch from a run blocking perspective.

After accounting for all of our position groups’ changes, we’re left with:

• 2 positions trending up from 2025 📈

• 4 positions trending down 📉

• 3 positions that look neutral ➡️

That doesn’t mean the offense will be worse than last year, and I’m going to be wrong on some of these guesses. There’s a wide range of outcomes for this group, but here’s what I feel pretty confident about:

• State’s offensive line should be pretty good

• The running back room will take a step back, but will still be top ~ third group in the ACC, more than capable of supporting the offense

• This group’s success likely comes down to C.J. taking a step forward and finding consistency from a new group of wide receivers

Sometimes it’s as simple as needing your best players to be your best players. If C.J. can take another step forward this year, there are definitely ten wins on this schedule. Of course, that’s counting if’s and maybe’s, and there’s an entire other side of the ball to discuss - which we’ll do next week.