Week 6 vs Wake Forest

Remember this game? I don’t. No recollection. Nothing to discuss, right?

Sigh, it’s just so frustrating and embarrassing losing to these guys. And now they have fans somehow appearing out of the ether to talk trash at us downtrodden NC State fans. I feel like they don’t have a leg to stand on if they can’t even sell out their basic ass high school stadium.

But that’s what’s been most frustrating. For over 20 years, these guys have had fewer resources, worse facilities, and lower recruits, and yet regularly still beat State. And now, two years removed from the uber frustrating Dave Clawson era, Wake Forest has a fighting chance to make the College Football Playoff!! If that happens before Dave Doeren could do it that would surely be his nail in the coffin. All excuses would be null and void.

Week 7 @ Stanford

I have literally no opinions on Stanford. I just know they’re supposed to be very very bad at football. And yet, NC State’s team is decimated with injuries, and is extremely hard to read for which team is going to show up week to week. They SHOULD win, but it’s a lose-lose situation. If they win, “yeah, you were supposed to win”, or, “you didn’t win by enough”. If you lose, it’s a national embarrassment, and Doeren might get fired on the tarmac. So, I guess if you’re hoping for the most chaos then sure root for NC State to lose I guess. I know there are segments of the fan base actively rooting for this, and I just don’t get how you can want your team to lose but then again flat earthers exist.

Anyway, let’s get to the picks!

AI slop’o’matic pic of the week:

The AI machine first tried to give me an image of the the Stanford jerseys on the Louisville Cardinals (plural) mascot. Clearly the machine was just as confused as all of us are as to what the heck a Cardinal (singular) is. After a thorough tongue lashing, it corrected and provided these grotesque Groot-like beings. They’re actually not half bad and Stanford should use this instead of that dumb Christmas tree costume they use now.

Week 6 vs Wake Forest (aka WtFU)

It’s always some bullshit with these guys, isn’t it? This year, the “narrative” is quite full. Here are the top 3 topics surrounding the program as NC State greets the Demon Deacons on Saturday:

1. Gio Lopez is like, good now?

The discussion this week is all about how revamped the Demon Deacon offense is now that they have…checks notes… Gio Lopez at QB?!? The dude seemed lost last year at UNC, now is lighting it up.

We’ll put aside any jokes about UNC for now, and look at Gio’s current stats:

• Passing yards, 1377 (17th)

• Pass yards/attempt, 9.1, (25th)

• Pass yards/game, 275.4 (20th)

• He’s only thrown 1 interception

The one area of possible attack is in the pass rush. NC State was able to successfully get to Lincoln Kienholz, so they will have to do the same this week. Lopez is just as wily on the ground as Kienholz, and will turn busted plays into big gains. State has to be prepared for designed runs like, you know, the whole Beau Pribula situation.

I just hate that we’re at the point where we’re worried about how much damage a Gio Lopez led offense is going to do, and that leads to the next point…

2. Dave Doeren year 14 vs Jake Dickert year 2

Dave Doeren is not just battling Jake Dickert on the field, he’s also fighting the narrative that his tenure is stale and past his prime. Meanwhile, Dickert stepped in and took Wake Forest to 9 wins in his first year. This 9 win total is buyoed by the fact that they beat an SEC team (Mississippi State) in their bowl game. Turns out beating SEC teams is good for the general opinion on your program, Dave Doeren oughta try that some time.

Dickert is now in year 2, yet somehow has Wake with more juice than State has had in years, with a fraction of the Pack’s NIL budget. It will most likely be short-lived since he seems like the hot coaching candidate this year, but still. If the Deacons win this game, expect the boo birds to be out in full force for the fans wanting Boo Corrigan to find a Dickert of his own (or literally just hire him straight up). This narrative is exhausting and is a discourse I hope to avoid entirely, so for that point alone I’d like for NC State to win this game.

Wake Forest sits at 4-1 right now. NC State SHOULD be 4-1 as well, but you know, fumbles in the endzone will do that, and they’re 3-2 instead. If the Wolfpack can win this game it will put them in good position to maintain momentum towards the ultimate goal (which we are not speaking aloud yet, but are trying to manifest).

3. The NC State offensive line is, like, nonexistent right now

The Wolfpack’s injury report is a legit joke:

Spike Sowells is out for the season, and based on how he limped off the field, I wouldn’t be surprised if Yousef Mugharbil is soon to be announced as such. Add Rylan Vann and possibly Kamen Smith, and you have to go deeeeeep on the depth chart to actually field a functioning offensive line. We’re about one week away from Dave Doeren holding open tryouts to fill gaps on the line.

On top of that, Duke Scott being out and maybe Jojo Trader, and now we really aren’t sure who will be protecting CJ Bailey, nor he will be handing the ball off/passing to.

Insert: Ive_got_a_bad_feeling_about_this.gif

As for Loiusvile: Was it a good win or not?

Depending on who you ask, NC State either notched a good win against a quality opponent last Saturday, or they got lucky the Lousiville pooped the game away. Two sides of the same game’s coin.

• NC State went out against the odds and won a great game against a very good football team.

• NC State didn’t exactly win that game, so much as the Cardinals lost the game.

The truth, as always, is somewhere in the middle. Yes, the Cards did a ton to help the Wolfpack in this game. They coughed up 5 fumbles, losing 3 of them. But also NC State went in and forced those fumbles. It actually should have been more turnovers, since NC State dropped at least 2 surefire interceptions.

Dave Doeren and his staff out-coached Jeff Brohm, but the haters are not willing to give flowers. I think a lot of people feel like we’ve been here before. In last week’s picks, Trey correctly picked the win citing that that is precisely the kind of game Dave Doeren has a tendency to pull out of his butt just when he needs it most. The issue a lot of fans have is feeling like they’ve been burned in the past thinking one week’s good win will snowball into an avalanche of future success, but Dave Doeren simply doesn’t operate that way. He can follow up good wins with head scratching losses. A lot of people are like the Hawkeye “don’t give me hope” gif. They won’t be willing to acknowledge the possibility of success until the season is over and it’s actually happened.

But then, there’s a darker side of the fan base. Those that are actively rooting for ultimate destruction, and need Doeren to fully crater before their ultimate wish of him being removed from office can be granted. They are shorting NC State stock and need it to bottom out, so every win goes against their aims. They think that another 7-8 win season will only prolong this tenure. We will keep an eye on this growing narrative.

Anyway, let’s get to the picks!

Well, those are depressing…

AI slop’o’matic pic of the week:

It’s kind of hilarious how it literally is just replacing each week’s opposing mascots with that of the current week, but it’s basically the same photo.

I thought this might be too boring, so I said, “We're in "spooky season" now, so make those deacons more demon-ish”, and got this:

I should have just quit while I was ahead. Although the haunted mansion and full moon in the back are a nice touch.

My dislike for Lousivile (see???) pretty much stops at the spelling of the name. I’m so old that even though they’ve been in the ACC for a dozen years I still view them as a Big East school, a conference that doesn’t even play football anymore! Honestly, I still view all the former Big East teams as interlopers even though I have to get over it. BC, Syracuse, Pitt, VT, Miami, and Loisvill are here to stay so I just have to accept it. I don’t actually hold anything against the school or its fans, I’m rather agnostic on them. My main beef is they joined the ACC and became one more hurdle standing in the way of NC State being able to make it Charlotte to contend for the ACC title. If we needed to trade away Maryland and get Loucivell e in return, then so be it. Having them in the Atlantic division was one extra thing that made it that much harder than traversing the Coastal. I would say RIP to the circle of suck, but last year saw its return. The dark magic of the coastal was unleashed on the rest of the conference when divisions were removed.

Week 5 vs Loisivlle

Where were we? Oh right, back to this week’s matchup against the lOivielle Cardinals. It’s not an exaggeration to say the this game could be a lynchpin for the whole season. Both teams desperately need to win to keep any shred of hope of being in the ACC race alive. Jeff Brohm has shown a tendency to follow up big wins with a toe-stubbing loss, as he did last week against Wake Forest after their thrilling win against SMU. Loisvilel might be without star QB Lincoln Kienholz, but I’ll believe it when I see it since he’s just listed as questionable. NC State kinda needs Kienholz not to play if it seriously wants to slow down the Cardinals offensive attack. This team has a lot of firepower, which is what boat loads of NIL money will get you. I have severe doubts the NC State defense will be able to stop Losivill e at full strength.

As for the other side of the game, Losivulle is not that great on defense. NC State should be able to have success moving the ball. So the game comes down to this:

• Loisivlle > > > NC State defense

• NC State offense > Losiiblle defense

Given this, I think NC State will be able to put points on the board, just not enough/ not fast enough to keep up with the Cardinals. If Kienholz doesn’t play, it might adjust the calculus by maybe one less “>” in favor of the NC State defense, but I’d say it still tilts the scale in favor of Losibille.

What about App State?

Dave Doeren is in a lose-lose situation. He plays a school like Richmond and blows their doors off, nobody cares because, “that’s what you’re supposed to do against those kinds of teams.” Then he plays an upstart team like App State that always stays trying to start some stuff, cuts a big lead and everyone boos even though the Wolfpack still won by 10. I think the issue is twofold:

1. Giving up a 21 point lead to team from the Sun Belt is troubling no matter which way you slice it. Malachi Singleton was slinging it all over the field, finishing with 317 yards (64 more than CJ Bailey, btw). If your defense can’t hold its ground against this level of opponent, then how can we as fans have any hope they’ll be able to stop the Losiville offense? Short answer, it probably can’t.

2. You simply can’t be tied at 31 with under 10 minutes to go, and the NC State offense stalled in the second half.

It’s not good enough to be able to say, “hey, a win is a win, and a double digit win at that is still good.” But that is like the classic Brian Kelly, “LSU won the football game” press conference:

Does that sound familiar?

Yes, sometimes these things are just one game, but often times those little things add up and provide real cause for concern. The problem is the fact the team won the game often paints over those concerns. In past years, we’ve seen issues that NC State has faced against non-power conference opponents rear its head when playing more important games later in the schedule.

Dabo Swinney is getting lots of frustrated comments from his fans and local media, but he has a long resume to help him push back including two championships and over a decade of conference dominance. At this point, what does Salty Dave have to push back with? I’m honestly asking…

Anyway, let’s get to the picks!

AI slop’o’matic pic of the week:

And one final note if you’ve read this far: I pinky promise I wasn’t trying to intentionally misspell Loisiville, I just can’t help that’s how it comes out for me. I am but a simple man trying to learn to not rely on spell check to clean up my embarrassments.

1. NC State lost the Vanderbilt game on the last play of the game.

2. NC State did not lose the Vanderbilt game on the last play of the game.

1. CJ Bailey had the worst play of his career in those final six seconds vs Vanderbilt.

2. CJ Bailey played his best game as a starting QB vs Vanderbilt.

1. Duke Scott did not have a good game vs Vanderbilt.

2. The NC State run game in aggregate did well.

1. App State comes into Raleigh being 3-0.

2. App State has beaten Maine, ECU, and Charlotte.

The Vanderbilt loss boils down to that last play, and fans have been using it as a microcosm of the whole Dave Doeren experience. But in reality, NC State opened the door wide open for Vanderbilt to even be in the position to contend for the win to begin with. If QB Jared Curtis hadn’t thrown up a YOLO ball on first down, we can all envision a scenario where the defense was done for the day on getting stops and Vandy would have scored with under a minute remaining. It really had that feeling. Had that happened, people would still be mad, but at least the anger would be localized to the NC State fan base, and not spread across every single national media outlet and trending across all of Twitter.

It was truly embarrassing the number of texts I got from people I don’t hear from that often saying things to the effect of, “ooof, sorry, that was brutal, are you okay?”

You know things have gone really wrong when soft acquaintances are reaching out to see how you’re doing. I could really do without all the wellness checks and would much rather just have NC State do the thing that 99.8% of all other teams have been able to do for the last 20 years of college football. The record of 1,046-2 for teams with the ball under 10 seconds to win the game is a stat I didn’t know before Saturday, and now wish I’d never learned about it. I don’t like that NC State will be on every highlight reel of bad plays from now until the end of time. This is up there with Chris Webber calling the timeout. It’s honestly shocking to me this HASN’T ever happened before?? With all the shaky teams CFB has had over the years, you’d think this was something that would have happened before. But NC State loves to defy all odds and logic, and almost never for the better.

What Now?

Coming out of Vanderbilt, NC State fans are left to ask the same thing they asked after the loss to UVA: What will be the team’s mindset? This has all the classic markings of a “quit watch.” We’ve seen these situations snowball into losing streak. If they come out with good energy and aggression, then we know the season is not all lost. If they come out just meh, then, well, hold on to your butts, as they say.

The same scenario happened in the Richmond game, where we are less concerned about the opponent and how NC State will approach the opponent, the response, and the atmosphere. It’s unclear what the energy in the stadium will be. If things aren’t good to start, one would hope the crowd doesn’t turn sour.

Doeren and co. need to give the crowd something to cheer about early just to settle the place down and ease tensions. He also needs to give CJ Bailey some opportunities to succeed and make an impact on the very first drive, just as a show of confidence in him. After that, who knows…just win, bro.

Now, on to the picks!

I have to give the AI slop’o’matic for improving. It’s still not perfect but to be honest it ain’t half bad:

Every second of every day, we make tens of thousands of little decisions that boil down to these things called responses.

You can plan and strategize where you’d like your life to go all you want. The second you take that first step down your path, and the universe throws something back in return, it’s on you to decide how to respond. “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.” An aggressive, but accurate summation of the importance of response.

Saturday afternoon, my personal response to one of the worst late game losses in college football history was to crumple to the floor into the roly-poly position. My eyes and my brain were fighting what I saw and what I was forced to process. There was no way that just happened. And yet, as an N.C. State fan, it was familiar.

A UNC friend texted me and asked, sincerely (I think) if this was one of the most painful losses I’ve experienced as a State fan. I responded with a link to an article from the Athletic that featured this outcome as one of the most painful endings to a college football game in history. It really was that insane of an outcome.

N.C. State had a 99.9% solid win condition: take a safety in the endzone successfully. If the clock runs out, you win. If there’s time left, you are asking Vanderbilt to score on a kickoff. It was just short of lose-proof.

Just short.

So if all of that went into my response as someone with no tangible connection to the program…how did that feel to the hundreds of people who live, breathe, and work year round for this program?

With all due respect to the Mountaineers football program, this week is not about Appalachian State in any way. This team is the 94th rated team in the country, out of 138 FBS teams per SP+. They did beat 90th rated ECU on the road, and turned around the next week struggling to beat 133rd rated Charlotte.

State is a projected two touchdown favorite over App State. Regardless of whether or not State covers that Saturday, that’s an indicator of what the markets and models see: a team at home that is significantly better than the visitor.

No, this week is about the type of response you get from every player, coach, and staffer inside of a locker room that just had its collective soul crushed.

I find myself still in awe at how small the margins are in this sport between heartbreak and elation. State was in a position last week where they leave Nashville 999 times out of 1,000 with a top 40 win on the road against an SEC opponent. Something this program hasn’t done in decades.

Instead, the ending to this game will be featured on “Bad Beat” YouTube compilations as long as the platform is around. Coaches will use it as teach tape indefinitely as “How Not To” when it comes to closing out late game situations. Life has a funny way of reminding you how close you are to disaster.

I couldn’t feel much optimism in the hours following the loss, and I’m not sure that’s the word I’d use to describe what I’m feeling now. But I do feel different one day out from State’s next contest. Call it undying and naive optimism if you’d like. I’ve just seen so many of Dave Doeren’s teams get off the mat and fight in spots that most might not expect.

I think back to a frustrated Carter-Finley exit last year after a different kind of heartbreaking loss to Virginia Tech, where fans would be rushing the field a month later after an upset over Georgia Tech. I think back to the resurgent second half of the 2023 campaign, how State still managed to win games without Devin Leary in 2022.

Night games played at 4600 Trinity Road are different. What an incredible opportunity to cleanse the palette and get take a step closer to getting back on track.

State will be a home underdog to Louisville in 8 days, but again: the margins in this sport are small. Perhaps the road loss to Vanderbilt somehow sets up this team to punch back in a big way, this time against a conference opponent who will be ranked when they come to town. After that, you’ve got a solid but gettable Wake Forest team at home. Can you figure out a way to rattle off three straight wins - and a 2-1 conference record - before the bye?

So much of this sport is tactical, x’s and o’s, schematic. This week - and perhaps the rest of this season - has much more to do with how State formulates a collective, capital R Response to Saturday.

It’s a running joke. Every year, you know the pain is coming. You willingly sign back up knowing the kick in the crotch is inevitably coming. It’s an interesting bit of human nature where we can purposely deceive ourselves year in and year out into thinking that the pain we know with certainty will most certainly come may not, in fact, come THIS time.

But why?

What is it about sports specifically that causes hope to spring eternal? There has to be a gambling aspect of this. We’re rolling the dice thinking surely this time it’ll come up 7’s, I mean what are the odds I keep getting snake eyes??

If you’re an NC State fan, turns out those odds are quite great. Back in 2015, when the infamous “trouble with the snap” game happened, I thought, “hey at least NC State hasn’t lost a game like THAT before.” Now, I can no longer say that, because they’ve lost a game worse. It’s actually astonishing that in the past 20 years, 1,048 college football games have been played where a team had the ball and the lead with less than 10 seconds, and these are the only two where the lead changed hands and that team lost? I don’t see how that’s statistically possible, but here we are.

NC State continues to defy the odds, and all logic. The unanimous response around the country was, “how could this happen!??” There were several things they could have done in this situation, and that was the one thing NOT to do. But NC State fans know that the Wolfpack will always find a way. They will continue to invent new and inventive ways to lose games, in ways that have never happened before. If there’s even a possibility they can lose a game, they will do it in a way to rope you in just far enough to melt your frozen heart and have you believing that maybe this time it will be different, and yet it never is. Charlie Brown and Lucy with the football does not even do this relationship justice. Why can’t they use this same amount of energy to find new ways to WIN games? I have spent so many years of my life worrying about the travails of this school to which I am inextricably linked. I showed the final sequence to my family so they could console me and my whip-smart daughter asked me, “dad, why did you have to go here?”

Me, “I know, I have thought about this many times over the years. A lot of things would have been different, and much easier, if I wasn’t stuck rooting for this school.”

Her, “yeah, but it’s your canon event. You needed to go there so you could end up where you are with us today.”

This is the great part of having kids, they help keep you grounded and put things into perspective. All that has happened needed to happen. But does that mean it needs to continue to happen?

I will endure…I think

I don’t have a choice but to try and move on. But the losses stay with you, always. I won’t ever forget Philip Rivers attempting multiple QB sneaks in the Horseshoe. Or TA not being in (note: he was, in fact, in). Or TA again, fumbling the game-sealing first down vs Maryland [redacted] in Rivers’ final home game. And on and on it goes. And that’s even before you look at basketball, which has its own list of tragedies. We had that one fleeting moment of triumph in 2024 that we get to hold onto for all time.

I’ll continue to watch, but the pain never leaves. It only leaves scars that show the remnants of deep wounds. Many fans have dropped off over the years after feeling like the pain was too much to bear, and won’t be back. I have some friends that have basically said, “I’ve been on this train too long and it’s never pulling into the station so I’m just jumping off. Call me when they win.”

It’s really hard being a national laughing stock, though. I was going to provide a recap of all the posts from various national (and even international) outlets clowning on State. But I decided against it because it’s simply too painful. But that’s what I’m signing up for: the pain. For some, the pain has become too much and have chosen more positive aspects of life to focus on. I give them a lot of credit. I am equally envious and also judgmental of them. I’m happy you are focusing on parts of life that are more fruitful, but also I thought we were in this together.

There’s some unspoken drive in me that won’t let me jump off the train. I watched the Tuesday afternoon round 1 game between NC State and Louisville in the 2024 ACC tournament. Why would I bother watching that game? The team had done so poorly that they were relegated to essentially the conference tournament play-in game. There was nobody in the stands, most attendees for the conference tournament weren’t showing up until Thursday at least. And yet, I watched. Why?

Hope, and not wanting to be late to jump back on

I can admit that I have intense FOMO. I don’t like being left out. So the idea that NC State might start winning and I wasn’t there to see it would make me feel like a poser if I jumped back on the train once it got up to full speed. If you grew up in the 80s or 90s, you know there’s nothing worse than being called a poser. You weren’t there, so why should you get to enjoy it only during the good times?

This is obviously unfair, and folks can make whatever choices are best for them. I saw this play out first hand this summer when the Knicks went on their epic playoff run to the championship. So may fans came out of the woodwork that hadn’t watched the Knicks in years were now cheering as if they’d never left. And people who’d hardly ever watched any basketball in their lives were seen walking around midtown Manhattan with Jalen Brunson jerseys. Meanwhile, one of my good friends has been deep into watching every game his whole life. His thought is if you weren’t here on a Tuesday night in February to watch them play the Wizards then I don’t want you here now.

There has to be a medium ground there. I don’t know exactly where that medium ground is yet. But until I find it I’ll be here, watching the Wolfpack play against an absolute trap game vs App State. I am glad the Knicks got good so my daughter has an outlet from the pain I’ve transferred to her to have to grow up an NC State fan. But I worry for her sanity as well because it’s really hard to see your team win a championship in your youth and never win again. Who knows what the future will bring, but for her sake I hope she finds that medium ground and doesn’t envelop her life with pain waiting for that joy from the summer of 2026 to return. At least she can say she’s seen them win at the highest level once in life. However, many Mets fans were made in the fall of 1986 and have been waiting ever since to see them win again. The same can be said for NC State fans still dreaming about the spring of 1983, and many will be wistfully remembering March/April 2024 decades from now.

Until I find that medium ground of not being fully checked out while not being overly invested, I will be here. I will watch the random Tuesday night hoops game in February vs Boston College. It’s a switch I can’t turn off. I can’t just switch sides and decide to start rooting for Georgia or Ohio State, just because it would be more fun and an easier experience. I both wish I could and also don’t want to. At best I might pick up some side teams to root for, but they’ll have as deep a relationship as my day 1. I just wish we could have the nice things we see others enjoy a bit more frequently, that’s all. And by frequently, I mean less than every 2-3 decades. By that math we’ll be happy less than five times in our lifetimes, and that’s just depressing.

(If you have ~3 minutes, please take this quick survey on NIL at N.C. State for an article I’m working on. Thanks for reading.)

Wolfpack football in 2026 has existed at opposite ends of the spectrum.

For context, State entered the season rated as the 43rd “best” team in the country per the SP+ model from Bill Connelly. After week zero’s Virginia lashing, they dropped into the 70s. After the Richmond blowout, they round tripped back up to 41st nationally. Both of those games moved the model’s perception of State by ~8 points. We’re early on in the season and it doesn’t take much to move, but that is a hell of a swing.

While we’re still asking the real N.C. State to show itself, Vanderbilt has been more consistent in their identity. So far in the post Diego Pavia era, that identity being a consistent, humongous question mark.

Vandy kicked off its 2026 campaign scraping by FCS Austin Peay 28-9, and dodging disaster one week later by pulling away from Delaware late to a 35-26 win. In both cases, Vandy drastically underperformed compared to expectations, against respective spreads of 29.5 and 20.5.

It’s true that this isn’t the Vanderbilt of old. Clark Lea’s staff has done an excellent job of “moneyballing” and finding diamonds in the rough to compete in a league where they are completely outresourced.

But this isn’t the Vanderbilt of the last two years either. Diego Pavia ain’t walking through that door, and the transfer portal classes and big names that hit in a big way over the last couple of years are mostly gone.

This is an above average team that State can absolutely get on the road. An opportunity to right the ship and do something Dave Doeren has never done before: beat a Power 4 team in a neutral or road environment.

Vanderbilt’s Offense

Vanderbilt’s revitalized brand has been built around Diego Pavia and his Heisman-esque heroics. It’s not crazy to characterize him as the most valuable player in the sport last year.

With Pavia - and skill talent like Eli Stowers and Tre Richardson - gone, Vanderbilt is remaking their identity on this side of the ball.

The headliner for this group is 5 star true freshman Jared Curtis, a statement recruiting win for this program. Curtis was the number 2 overall recruit in the 2025 class, and it’s not hard to see why. At 6’3 230, he’s built like a tank with a cannon of an arm. He’s not an elite runner, but can absolutely scramble to make plays, or put his shoulder down and get an extra yard or two.

He was also in a legitimate quarterback battle with Blaze Berlowitz, a New Mexico State transfer, who looked absolutely dreadful to start the year. I believe there’s something to that being a competition, especially given the competition. Why not give him all of the reps in these games?

Curtis played against poor competition in high school, and while his future is incredibly bright, he’s pretty raw on tape with his decision making and comfortability.

He does have the ability to make plays like these:

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Obviously, an impressive off script score. But this is Delaware, and in week one, it was Austin Peay. What does it look like when he makes his first start against another Power 4 level team?

A good running game is a quarterback’s best friend, and that’s what the Commodores are trying to kickstart. Vanderbilt returns a trio of backs, headlined by senior Sedrick Alexander, and so far this rotation has been...fine? Alexander has ~400 carries to his name as a fourth year player, with a career average of 4.2 yards per attempt. MK Young is another back with a ton of speed, and he’s made some big plays running between the tackles, but these are backs you’d put in the “good, not great” bucket.

This offensive line appears to be capable, but not extraordinary. Vanderbilt is going to continue to be very heavy in their personnel. You’ll see multiple tight ends on the field, a fullback, some iso plays and a lot of “running right at you.”

Coach Doeren this week emphasized that the nose position on State’s is completely up for grabs. This is ideally a week where you see someone seize that spot, because Vanderbilt is going to look to bully State at the point of attack.

If I’m looking for one stat for State’s defense, it’s average third down distance. Vanderbilt is 86th nationally in third down conversion rate this year against two low quality opponents. If Vanderbilt is consistently asking Curtis to make plays against DJ Eliot’s scheme that is very multiple and confusing in nature, then I like State’s chances to win consistently on this side of the ball.

This is the side of the ball I feel best about right now relative to expectations. I expect to leave Saturday feeling good overall about this unit.

Vanderbilt’s Defense

Vandy’s defensive formula is the exact approach that has given State’s quarterback room nightmares of late: muddy pictures, looks that change a ton after the snap, and movement designed to confuse signal callers. They walk their linebackers up onto the line of scrimmage frequently, bring secondary players on blitzes, and present non traditional looks like this one (tipped ball that led to an interception, btw:)

I tuned in for the Delaware game and it felt like announcer Cole Cubelic used the phrase “Cat Blitz” a hundred times in the first half. As mentioned, Vanderbilt loves to bring its secondary on blitzes, and while that means that there will be open zones on the field for C.J. to pick apart, it also means that he and the backs have to do a good job of knowing who to pick up, and when they’re outnumbered.

Vanderbilt’s defensive line is solid, but their back seven is where most of their playmakers live. CJ Heard (#8) will be the guy to watch flying around the screen; he’s second on the team in pressures (6) and sacks (2) as a Safety. They’re also very high on their linebacking corps of Nick Rinaldi and Bryan Longwell, who have combined for 12 quarterback pressures and 3 sacks already.

This is a defense to me that presents as a well coached unit, versus a star studded, freak-athlete laden side of the ball like you typically see in the SEC. With Clark Lea’s coaching background, though, this group is going to be in the right place at the right time for the most part

This is a unit that has been stout against the run so far, yielding just 2.7 yards per rush, but that’s against an FCS opponent and Delaware. State’s offensive line and it’s running game appear to be the strength of the offense, and this is where this game will be won or lost in my opinion.

We saw State lean into more pistol formation, and while Richmond’s tackling in these clips is comedic routine level, I really like State’s foundation if it involves pistol and wide zone moving forward - there’s so much you can do off of this that fits state’s strengths (boot, play action) and it keeps some uncertainty on where and what State is doing:

Delaware’s lead back, Jo Silver, averaged 6.8 yards per carry and 109 yards last Saturday. If Duke is averaging over 5 yards a touch, State’s going to be in good shape.

At the end of the day, though, this is where your 20+ start quarterback is going against a quarterback in his first. Ideally State is able to open rushing lanes consistently and put itself in “2nd and 5” a lot of the time, making C.J.’s life easier and giving Kurt Roper a lot of flexibility in what he can do.

I don’t think this is a defense State will score a ton on, and I do have concerns that we see flashes of Virginia here.

Much has been made on social media about State’s record against the SEC in the last ~50 years. I wanted to look at this coaching staff’s performance on the road against like competition in the modern era. I picked 2021 given it is post COVID and mainly in line with the portal and NIL craziness:

Vanderbilt will almost certainly fall in their power rating because of their remaining schedule, but this would be among the best wins State has had on the road against Power 4 competition in Dave Doeren’s tenure at N.C. State.

With that being said, this is without a doubt a game that N.C. State can win. With the advantages N.C. State has in experience at the quarterback position, this is one where you probably expect to win inside of the building.

I don’t think this version of Vanderbilt is very good, but I do have a ton of respect for Clark Lea and his defensive mind. He’s seen a lot of tape of how opposing defensive coordinators have made life difficult for State’s signal caller. I expect the offense to be more respectable than it was in Charlottesville, but I think this game comes down to who makes fewer mistakes, and Vanderbilt’s defensive personnel and approach will force some.

The next game is always the most important game - tongue in cheek - but this one is a big one.

We’re a month into the season, watching the Pack go into a similar environment that they saw in week 0, with a similar point spread. We saw how that went. State welcomes an in-state App State team next week, with Louisville on its heels...a win tomorrow would set up an immaculate vibe around the Carter over the next couple of weeks. A loss would feel like de ja vu all over again.

Are we making a big jump after the first month, or are we in the same position we were a few weeks ago? Are we going to break a decades old streak of futility against SEC competition, or is it more of the same?
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I think the Pack breaks free probably 4 out of every 10 times this game is played, but I lean Vanderbilt this Saturday.

I’ve got this game as an ugly, 21-17 type win for the Commodores.

This was a similar experience with my local high school team the first two weeks of the season. They have been blowing teams out and there’s a mercy rule in NJ high school football if a team is up by 35 or more points they use a running clock to speed the game up. It doesn’t stop for incompletions or out of bounds, so the fourth quarter was literally done in about 15 minutes of real time. I wish NC State had been able to do something like that against Richmond. I don’t think I’ve ever seen more of a sad sack effort from an alleged Division 1 football team. And this isn’t even the most elite team of the Dave Doeren era. Top era Finley-Harmon-Meyers-JaySam would have won this game by 100.

And EVEN WITH ALL THAT, I still walked away from the game being a bit disappointed. If you assumed there’s nothing to take away from this game, here are some of my nitpicks that could be bellwethers for the rest of the season:

1. I still don’t think CJ Bailey looks sharp. If you can’t drop back and feast on this defense, then I’m not sure there will be another defense this season you’ll be able to do that against. I left this game being even more concerned about CJ than even after UVA. Still throwing off platform or off his back foot. Still throwing late or inaccurately. As I said on the Lotcast, which types of throws are in his bag? Does he even have a bag? Not even a cross-body sling, more like a small fanny pack that fits your phone and wallet and stick of gum.

2. The receivers still leave a lot to be desired. Similar to the concern with CJ, if these guys couldn’t get wide open by a country mile against the Richmond secondary, then there’s little hope to expect they’ll be able to get open against Vanderbilt or ACC defenses.

3. This means that we’re concerned with the QB and receivers, which are two pretty critical pieces of a passing attack. If the receivers struggle to get open, it creates small passing windows that are only open for a short time. But if your QB struggles with both timing and accuracy, what confidence do we have that he’ll be able to get those balls into that spot accurately and on time? That’s an open ended question I will leave for you to mull over and guess where I stand on it.

Things that went well:

1. Offensive line played their tails off in both pass protection and run blocking. Yes, it’s Richmond, but we’ve seen NC State OL’s struggle against lesser competition before, so this felt good.

2. Running backs all ran hard. This is going to have to be the strength of this team. Get ready for a crap ton of repetitive run plays followed by a third down Bailey incompletion.

3. Wheels. Duke Scott got to show off his speed which was cool to see. But who knew Will Wilson was so fast?? We’ve never seen that before, and it’s like, why don’t you put him in space to try and make something happen. I’ve been dying for a two-QB set. You could legit kill teams with some option sets with Bailey and Wilson.

4. The team looked like they were generally happy and having a good time. I’m happy for them to shed off the baggage of the UVA game that’s been hanging on them for two weeks and hopefully they’ll be able to go into the Vanderbilt game clean.

Speaking of which, it’s hard to predict anything that will happen in Nashville. That is clearly not the same team they had last year, and yet the boogeyman of the SEC still hangs over Dave Doeren. This game is a lose-lose situation for DD. If he wins then it will be like the ACC’s post last weekend about the conference going 3-0 against the Big 10.

Sure, you went 3-0 but it was against Rutgers, Purdue and Illinois. Not exactly the cream of the crop.

If Doeren wins: we can’t really celebrate him exorcising any SEC demons because people will say, “yeah, but it’s just Vanderbilt, they’re returning to their historical average and are still the dregs of the conference.”

If Doeren loses: all the haters come out of the woodwork complaining about him still not being able to compete against the SEC, we can almost hear the tweets being pre-drafted, “it’s year 14 and you couldn’t even beat Vanderbilt!?”

Now, Vandy might end up being pretty good this season. Their early season struggles might just be a factor of getting a 5-star QB up to speed for college football. We might look back at this game and see that they were a solid team overall. Or they could fall off a cliff, which would make a loss sting even more looking back at it in 10 weeks.

We do know their QB is working his way into the flow of the game at this level. And you know which school is always willing to allow opposing players have career days or get-right games? (another question I’ll let you answer…)

And in the return of an older segment, here’s the AI slop pick of the week:

This game opened at Vandy -4 and is currently sitting at -3. I do think it’s a pretty evenly matched game, and very winnable for NC State. Your guess is as good as mine as to what will happen, so go ahead and give us your pick below!

Watching State play Virginia week zero was like popping a balloon that contained a fan base’s worth of hope. Friday night’s weird weather delayed 73-0 smackdown was a nice attempt to stuff the hope back into the patched up receptacle. We’ll see how long it holds.

This result was polarizing in the opposite direction. I thought State would handle Richmond down to down, but I had zero expectation of a record breaking performance. These numbers are absolutely stoopid:

In addition to program records for yards (734) rushing touchdowns (8) and points and touchdown marks that have held since before World War II. You will not see a more dominant game summary screen from Game on Paper this year:

Offensively, State brought out their best early. On our Lotcast podcast this week, we talked about getting C.J. on the move to throw, and running out of the pistol to give State’s offense some flexibility. They did this on their first two plays, and they went for 12 and 43 yards respectively.

We were pretty confident that State’s offensive line was good to start the year, and they looked good again at Virginia, effectively matching UVA’s veteran line in “line yards created.” State’s run game looked incredible, regularly getting Duke Scott and Davion Gause to the second level. State’s running back room combined for 19 missed tackles forced and 294 yards after contact on just 29 carries. This is the clear strength of the offensive unit.

That’s not where the questions were, though. Most State fans were interested in seeing how C.J. Bailey would respond to arguably the worst performance of his career. There wasn’t a ton to take away from his night. Going 13/17 and seeing him throw the football down the field was an improvement, but Richmond’s defensive backs were consistently “wrong” and beaten. He did complete one deep ball to Keenan Jackson, who emerged as his go to option, but there just wasn’t a large enough sample here to feel tremendously better from Week Zero.

I’m still not fully understanding what the deal is with skill rotations. Vander Ploog played 1 snap after having State’s biggest offensive play in week 0 - it’s possible he’s still not healthy, but what about Victor Snow? 2 catches for 12 yards on the year. It seems there’s a good sample now that says Tyran Warren and Ashton Locklear are a step down in quality from Snow, Jackson, and Trader, and they continue to see significant run.

State’s first two games to start the year have been anomalous, with State being on opposite ends of blowouts, so I’ll wait another week to get frustrated on this. But moving forward, I will continue to beat the drum: get your best players on the field and let them work. You’ve got to with what we’ve seen from the passing attack so far.

Defensively, I continue to feel better relative to my beginning of year expectations. Richmond’s offense did nothing, and even though they aren’t very good, seeing that kind of dominance after a promising start against Virginia is a good sign.

I was interested to see how State handled linebacker without AJ Richardson, and it was Bailey Benson - a former Wake Forest transfer - who surprisingly got the nod. He played well and graded out as State’s third highest defensive player on PFF with an 80.4 overall grade.

State appears to have a group of younger situational guys they really like. LaCorian Hodge comes in on passing downs at linebacker and had another good showing. Ziggy Moore and Elijah Satchell, true freshmen backers, also played well and looked the part despite their youth. Most years, Dave’s teams have a couple of young guys that come out of nowhere to contribute meaningfully. It looks like that will be the case again next year.

I don’t put a ton of stock into this performance. It is directionally true that great teams in football beat the pants off of bad ones. But this performance didn’t answer the questions related to State’s major week zero flaws, particularly around the quarterback position.

Friday was like the piece of gum you pop to cleanse your pallette after eating something weird. The momentary relief is nice, but if you don’t consume anything else significant in the near term, that taste is coming right back.

State has a golden opportunity to eradicate that bad taste and chip away at a long standing narrative. Going to Vanderbilt represents a double whammy of Dave Doeren struggles, where the Pack will look to 1) beat an SEC team, and 2) do it as an underdog on the road.

Vanderbilt looked like a super beatable football team against Delaware, barely scraping by 35-26 and still rotating quarterbacks. Five star true freshman Jared Curtis got most of the game, but the fact that it has taken him this long to beat out *squints* fellow competitor Blaze Berlowitz is significant.

In my opinion, this is an opportunity you can’t let slip away.

One would assume that the Pack will be able to win this game, if they don’t then we’ve got bigger problems. It’s less about whether they win the game, but more about how they win. The TRT crew went over much of these in the latest episode of the Lotcast:

Last time, I wrote that the vibes are kinda weird going into this football campaign. People didn’t know how to evaluate the appropriate expectation level with all the new pieces. Now, the vibes are way worse, as the Pack will now have to build and buy back goodwill, and thus vibes, from the fan base. Dave Doeren has never lost to an FCS opponent, and it doesn’t seem like that’s at risk today. The goodwill will come if the team can demonstrate a higher skill level in their execution than they did against the Wahoos. Even still, it’s unlikely to move the needle all that much. Most people think Miami is one of the best teams in the country. The Hurricanes last night beat Florida A&M 77-7. Does that score make in believe more in Miami than they already did? Probably not. The same applies to NC State, although if they win 77-7 that will positively raise a lot of eyebrows.

A blowout to that magnitude is highly unlikely given Dave Doeren’s track record. In 2024, NC State the Pack beat Western Carolina 38-21. Fans may remember that State was actually LOSING this game 14-7 after the first quarter. Last year, their outing against Campbell went much smoother, 56-10. But that score didn’t serve as much of a bellwether for the team the rest of the season.

All that to say, we can’t take a ton from these games, we’re just looking at how the players execute. We would also hope they can get out comfortably and without injury to begin preparations for the game down in Nashville against Vanderbilt.

Let’s get to the weekly picks!

The team doesn’t have the utmost confidence that the Wolfpack offense will be able to produce a mountain of points to cover their 33.5 point spread. But we shall see in just a few hours now! Give your pick in the poll below, and any predictions in the comments!