NC State is 3-0 after steamrolling Presbyterian, and Justin Gainey has still never lost as the NC State head coach, a statistic that is certain to never change. With almost every single thing about this team, save Lubin and McNeil, being brand new, these opening-round tomato cans are great to start putting some answers together and deciding where to place the bets. So what have we seen?
State has played back-to-back opponents that played some variation of a two-on-the-ball ball-screen coverage, and it’s had some creative answers for exploiting the rotation that such a coverage requires. It used the veer action and multiple variations of the ram screen to stress the hedging big. Both were key in generating some open looks in the second-half rally against East Tennessee State. Check out the video I made about these actions.
I’ve been impressed with both the staff’s answers to the looks it has been shown and its creativity in set design, ATOs (after timeouts), and inbounds plays. State has done a great job of keeping Paul McNeil on the move, where his shooting gravity can really stress any help defense from his defender. McNeil is a player whose impact on the game can’t be accurately measured through raw stats because of how much gravity he carries. State used him as a ball screener in a couple of different types of actions in the Presbyterian game, and it’s used the exit screen and some basic cutting to influence help in support of some of its basic ball screen actions throughout all three contests. When you have Paul McNeil, you should always be forcing the defense to keep track of him.
Preston Edmead has stood out through three games, and it really hasn’t been the shot creation that’s been his headliner. He’s been State’s best pick-and-roll guy by far, and his explosiveness provided some organic answers to the two-on-the-ball coverages. He’s been able to turn the corner and create advantages out of those coverages, and his reads have been solid. He’s seeing the floor pretty well and looks comfortable as a primary offensive hub.
My big question with Edmead was whether he could activate some kind of interior scoring tool. He really needs to be able to hit that floater with some consistency. The situations so far have not demanded it, but the games are coming where more of an onus will fall on his scoring tools. The jumper is legit, but I’ll be interested to see what the rest of it looks like.
Edmead and Lubin in the pick-and-roll have been the best combo so far. Darius Adams and Kyle Evans have both been hit or miss. It’s clear why State likes Adams. His length and physicality in the paint give him more of a natural finishing ability than any of your other creators. Adams flashed some of this in the Campbell game, when he was 4 of 5 at the rim, got to the line four times, and had four assists.
The next two were a bit more of a struggle, particularly the ETSU game. He hasn’t been able to reliably turn the corner and create an advantage against the types of coverages he’s faced in the last two games, and the decision-making hasn’t been as crisp as the defense exposes itself with rotation. Ball screen actions have looked less certain of themselves when run by Adams as compared to Edmead or even Hammond, who’s been quite strong as more of a secondary creator. Adams can shoot the ball and has some juice at the rim, so he’ll have value on the floor. I think it just remains to be seen if he’ll settle into a creator role like State originally wanted or end up more off the ball.
Evans has also struggled to make reads and secondary passes on the short roll. The ball is sticking too much when he catches it off the pocket pass or dump-off against the hedge, which again, State has seen a lot so far. He needs to make a quicker read in those situations and either go score at the rim or kick the ball to the corner to keep it ahead of the defensive rotation. I thought this would be a strength of his, so I was a little surprised to see how flimsy it’s been.
I thought the Presbyterian game was State’s best and most cohesive defensive effort so far. Some early-season gelling pains seemed to ease up in game three. Presbyterian shot under 40% at the rim and 25% from three. A sudden rash of live-ball turnovers at the start of the second half led to a 13-0 run over four minutes, but State allowed 47 points over the other 36 minutes (yes, 14 missed free throws help some).
I’ve liked how State has mixed up its screen coverages, and I’ve liked even more that it’s looked competent doing so. Please do not box score watch Kyle Evans this year. He will not approach the block rate he posted at UC Irvine, and that’s not only because of a step up in competition. Evans was purely a drop-coverage big at UC Irvine, where he would sit in the paint and protect the rim. State is asking him to do a lot more than that so far, and his mobility is actually one of his best traits. During the second half of the ETSU game, he looked pretty good as a switch defender, guarding smaller guards out to the perimeter.
Edmead is an interesting defensive study so far. His size is limiting, and short of stilts becoming legal, there’s no way around that. He has good short-area quickness, though, and will beat ball handlers to spots. He moves his feet well. Taller guards will get their shots off over him, and that did happen a couple of times on Tuesday after a good on-ball rep from Edmead. Where he needs to improve the most is as a chase defender fighting over screens.
There are some personnel weaknesses that are probably unavoidable on the defensive side of the court, but that can be balanced by sound help, good technique, and not allowing easy baskets from silly Will Wade-esque communication breakdowns. Seeing fewer of those in game three than game two is positive.
Ultimately, I’m not passing any major judgments on this group, good or bad, until it plays some higher-level competition. I’ve fallen into that trap before, and even Kevin Keatts’ last team was looking pretty good through its first three tomato cans. All that said, not all tomato cans are created equal. East Tennessee State at least appears to be a decent mid-major, but we’ll have to see.
I don’t think it’s fan speak to call these first three encouraging, though. It hasn’t always been pretty, but State finding at least one stretch in all three games to go full terminator while still very much trying to feel out its roles and rotations is a good sign. Hopefully, it can clear this next hurdle without much guff and we’ll get to learn something real in the Bahamas.