Five Questions that will Determine the Season for NC State
There are more than five you can ask, but these are my top five.
NC State saw a fair amount of turnover after its 8-5 campaign in 2025. A lot of new faces will populate the two-deep, which naturally prompts a lot of questions as to who can step into what role. These are the five that will swing the most outcomes (in no particular order).
Will the Guards be Good?
The interior of State’s offensive line will have a lot to say this season, specifically the guards. Both Yousef Mugharbil and Kamen Smith put some juice on tape last year, but undeniably it was a mixed bag. Still, of the candidates to play the position, these are two that put the most enticing game clips out last year (Spike excluded. Spike is good).
The big point here is that while neither was good overall, most of the stuff they did wrong was coachable. Mugharbil, for example, had a rough time as a kick out blocker when he would pull in a counter play. His technique was bad there, but in drive and down block scenarios, he was good. When he was good, he was moving guys.
Kamen Smith was better as a puller, but the same general point holds for him. It’s cliche to say they are raw but have potential, but that was a pretty accurate descriptor, thus a path exists for both to be really good players this year. If these two end up starting (I don’t know that they will), they’ll be variables in the offense, but the horses are in the stable in the backfield to build a strong run game if this ends up being a good run blocking unit.
Who is State’s Outside Threat?
For a minute there, Dave Doeren’s team had a reputation of putting dominant matchup issues on the outside. Kelvin Harmon and Emeka Emezie were both game breakers, but this ended with the exhaustion of Emezie’s eligibility in 2021. State has not had this since, despite some candidates coming and now going. Terrell Anderson had a chance to be this guy, and he still could be, but it would be in a USC uniform.
It’s a totally new room except for Keenan Jackson. State should feel comfortable with what it will list in the slot position with Victor Snow, but it needs to find a playmaker on the outside. This type of matchup problem opens up more opportunities for the offense to seek iso chances through things like 3x1 alignments, putting the formation into the boundary, etc. It also makes it harder for defenses to even out the box counts with cover 1. A serious playmaker on the outside puts a lot of stress on a defense to avoid situations where a corner is isolated against that player.
Keenan Jackson, JoJo Trader, Davion Dozier, Chance Robinson, and Tyran Warren are all returnees or guys from the portal who will take their shot here. Jackson, Trader, and Dozier are the most likely candidates, but none have really popped in these situations yet in their careers. I think Keenan Jackson is a good player with better ball skills than he’s been able to show. Trader is the biggest name, while Dozier has the size you want. Can one of these guys become an impact player?
Can Someone Answer the Bell at Tight End?
The tight end position in this type of offense is really a skeleton key. Heavier personnel (more tight ends) has made a comeback in football as a response to how defenses eventually solved the spread offense. But the tight end isn’t being added just to get big and pound the football. It exists as a force multiplier for the offense’s call sheet.
State is able to operate a diverse run game and its full collection of pass plays from this singular alignment. The ubiquity of a single formation makes it harder for defenses to use formational tendencies to their advantage. This, of course, is dependent on a tight end that can both execute various blocks and run a full route tree. Joly’s skill set was reasonably close to this. State would motion him in and out of different alignments, chase matchups, and use him as a versatile tool. To a lesser degree, State would also play with two tight ends (12 personnel), which, if you have the horses at tight end, can have a similar effect that’s compounded.
Is there a player who can deliver versatility on this roster? I believe in Hunter Provience as a blocker, but don’t think he’s creating any matchup issues in the pass game. Vander Ploog is certainly a high-end athlete with a sweet highlight tape, but how far along is the development of a guy who played two years in high school and then didn’t play at Oregon? Preston Douglas’ name has come up a lot this preseason. He played significantly in basically just the bowl game last year and has one career catch.
Can the Interior of The Defensive Line Hold Up Against the Run?
As the president of the Joseph Adedire fan club and a believer in both Harvey Dyson and Sterling Dixon, I feel okay about where State stands at the field end and the jack backer spots. It’s the interior of the line that has some questions to answer with no clear rotational contributors and a nose tackle that was third on the depth chart a year ago.
This is probably the biggest question mark on the team, and it surfaces some concerns about facing a potentially strong offensive line in week zero. The nose tackle, obviously, is a critical piece of the run fit structure against any zone run. Shirley as the defensive tackle will face key double teams in counter plays and other gap runs.
How well these guys hold up against double teams, reach blocks in outside zone, etc. is probably my A-storyline for this defense, even more than the pass rush growth that is needed. It will have a cascading effect on every other part of the defense. Then, the follow-up question is whether or not guys with zero or near-zero game reps can be replacement level or better as rotational players.
Can the Defense Speed Up the Time to Throw for Opposing QBs?
NC State’s lack of pass rush last year gave quarterbacks a free pass, literally, to pick apart a struggling secondary. That secondary is likely to have improved quite a bit. If State can leap forward in the pass rush department, it could show up with a pretty good defense against the pass.
There are plenty of tools here to enable this, as has been covered in the past with DJ Eliot. State was a heavy user of a menu of creepers last year. It liked its 3-deep fire zones. It would play cover 0 sometimes. There is no lack of depth to its bag of tools as a team. It just needs to execute them.
Harvey Dyson, Sterling Dixon, Joseph Adedire, and Chase Bond are all players who will take on edge rusher roles, and they’ll be a big part of the answer on dropbacks where State does not have any kind of pressure package on. Beyond that, can the linebackers win more when the pressure path gets them isolated on the running back? There are a lot of ways to generate pressure on the quarterback. State needs to find its groove this year, because pressure isn’t just about getting sacks and negative plays. It also eliminates the deepest routes in a lot of passing concepts, which minimizes the explosives that were too common last year.