My first immediate takeaway following NC State’s 41-31 escape from App State was just simply “man, this season is a lot.”
We’re a third of the way through, and every single game has delivered some kind of fascination. Whether it was the woeful performance at Virginia and the preparation storyline there, a record-breaking game against Richmond, a strong performance at Vanderbilt that is forgotten because of the worst play in program history, or a polarizing blown lead and/or gutsy win against App State, it’s just something every week now. I’m tired.
NC State did in fact blow a three-score lead for the second straight week, but it was able to hang on thanks to the offensive line and the running backs, the two best units on the field, leading a nine-play go-ahead scoring drive in the fourth quarter. NC State was clearly the better team on a down-to-down basis, but it never capitalized on App State’s mistakes, while the Mountaineers scored 14 points off key NC State errors.
There was a chance to stomp this one out early in the second half with an 18-point lead. At that point, State was getting an opponent who had to absorb an elevated level of risk to get back in the game. If it could force App State pay for the first mistake it would inevitably make, the deficit would probably balloon to four scores and the game would be over. It did not take long for the Mountaineers to offer this up.
On the very first play of the second half, App State quarterback Malachi Singleton got caught trying to “get it all back at once” as they say, when he tossed a deep post into double coverage. This should have been an interception or at worst 2nd-and-10, but not only did State not make Singleton pay for this, it actually granted a 54-yard completion. The score was 28-17 a couple of plays later.
Isaiah Shirley then dropped an interception inside the App State red zone, marking the second backbreaking turnover that State failed to corral. The Pack then threw an interception because of a blown pass pro rep, offering a short field that would lead to points, which were followed up with a complete lack of awareness of an extremely obvious onside kick. The game script can be read through those four plays.
That’s how this one ended up tied; two mistakes from each team with NC State benefiting from none and App State somehow benefiting from three. If you flip those four plays, State probably wins by thirty, but that’s how you keep an inferior team in the game. To State’s credit, it responded and closed out the game.
The Actual Game
The offense for NC State was pretty good. It ran for 206 yards, and the offensive line continues to be the team’s best unit. Duke Scott is pretty much the player we thought he would be. State has a pretty clear identity developing, as it ran a lot of wide and tight zone out of pistol once again on Saturday. The guards need some love. These guys were the question marks on the line coming into the season and they’ve been solid. Kamen Smith is having a good year. He is a violent kick out blocker on counter plays. The double teams with Mugharbil and Teague Andersen were moving interior linemen down the field at the kind of clip you want to see against an inferior team. Outside of the one disaster rep McCrimon had that led to the interception, it was a good game for these guys.
Split flow inside zone play, so you’re looking for vertical movement from your double teams. Watch the center (Teague Andersen) and the left guard (Yousef Mugharbil) move the App nose tackle to a different zip code. The other double team has almost equal success. State overmatched App State at the line of scrimmage on offense.
The tight ends also had a better blocking effort. I was critical of them on the podcast last week. Against Vanderbilt, both Douglas and Provience had a few bad misses in the run game that took plays with explosive potential and relegated them to whatever Duke Scott could churn out with eight arms wrapped around him. Douglas was more physical and Provience had a great downfield block on the second touchdown.
This is the base for State now, and if that wasn’t clear already, eight runs in nine plays with the game on the line should drive that stake into the ground.
CJ Bailey was also pretty good for the second straight game. Vanderbilt really challenged his hot read process, and he found some confidence in those situations. Bailey was pretty accurate 20 yards and in and generally made good decisions. His timing and accuracy on these mid-depth routes has been considerably better than the first week of the season. Bailey’s always been a good comeback thrower, and State is getting mileage out of that via the boot plays with the outside comeback and a lot of free access opportunities, which he has not hesitated to take.
App goes cover 0 here with a hug rush on the back from the boundary corner. I think this is a true left to right progression for the quarterback. He ends up “hot,” meaning the protection is outnumbered and he has to account for an unblocked rusher. The linebacker could be used in a 0 lurk scheme here, basically sitting in the middle and robbing crossers. It’s not uncommon to see that to prevent this exact type of throw. When he comes on the blitz, Bailey throws into the window he vacates. The inverted release with Locklear makes it hard on the DB and it’s a touchdown.
I really like this throw. This is a split-field read for Bailey, so he’s picking a side. Sometimes on this play, called “snag lion,” the quarterback is taught to be on the left against 2-high and the right against single high. I do not know what State teaches, but the right side here can be beat by cover 2 because the flat route will run right to the corner and the snag route will run right to the linebacker in the “hook” zone. If the safety can drive on the corner route, you’re stuck. It’s a great read of the flat defender, though, and excellent timing to fit this in. He throws this pretty early, and if he doesn’t, it’s a hospital ball at best. This is a good throw with a lot of trash around his feet. Kudos.
This offense’s biggest question mark as it stands is the downfield passing game, as in the stuff that challenges the roof of the defense. It just isn’t really present, and it’s a combination of some lingering questions about who the playmakers in these spots are, Bailey’s accuracy down the field, and Bailey’s willingness to attack these throws.
Shot plays can be divided into a ton of different categories. Many times these opportunities come out of alerts, meaning the route isn’t actually part of the play’s primary process or progression, but against a certain look where that route might be advantageous, the quarterback can come to it. Bailey has not aggressively chased these opportunities this year.
He did throw the one deep post on Saturday, which was open but required an NFL-level throw to hit. He underthrew it pretty badly and was lucky to get a pass interference call. I bring this up because I know this is what people want to see. State is not explosive offensively right now, even as it is pretty efficient. The longest scoring play of the year against FBS competition is still a Will Wilson touchdown run.
The offense has a chance to be good the rest of the year, if still flawed. It will come down to running the ball, but if it can do that, there’s enough here to be a two-dimensional, efficient offense.
Defensively, State struggled a lot with the Mountaineer passing game. App’s ground game is absolutely garbage, and that was true again after a 62-yard effort, but State had major issues with slide routes from the tight ends and the backs, and its zone structures were compromised for a handful of explosive plays.
The slide routes and the sail concept were killers for App State. The Pack struggled to solve the back or the tight end fast to the flat and it also allowed Singleton to find the second-level windows on the single-side passing concepts.
This happened a lot. This simple slide route was able to outleverage the defense and pick up chunks of yards. App got to it in many creative ways. In this example, State is running a scrape exchange, so Harvey Dyson will crash down the line while Nelson behind him will replace on the edge. It’s a common read run tool for the defense. Somebody is supposed to run with 1 here. Jaren Sensabaugh on the top of the screen has initial responsibility. I’m not sure what rules are supposed to be in play, but when 1 crosses the formation, there is no exchange of responsibility and Sensabaugh is ten yards deep tracking this from over the top of the other routes. The result is all that space.
The pass rush was really nonexistent. NC State is 127th in the country in sack percentage, which is pretty gruesome. It’s not super hard to make this App State group one dimensional. They basically do it to themselves, but State wasn’t sound dealing with the eye candy in the Mountaineer offense and it never made it that hard on Singleton in the dropback game, so App State was able to live there enough to stick around.
State’s got a game here from the defensive line. I believe Ke’Von Carter is supposed to stab the B gap, but he gets chipped by the TE and falls down, which slows Chase Bond from looping around him, eliminating any threat from the field side. State is going to loop the nose over the jack on the boundary side, but a total lack of any penetration in the B gap makes this a relatively easy handoff for the offensive line. This is ineffective.
The Elephant in the Room
It’s tough to blow a 21-point lead to a Sun Belt team and not expect some people to be cranky, especially when the angst is as high as it is right now. The emotionally draining results of this season feel like they’re pushing some of this fanbase to a boiling point, what with this season being marketed by the head coach himself as a ten-win campaign.
I don’t believe in apologizing for wins, nor do I believe that the 25 minutes of bad ball after halftime has to be an indictment of NC State. But this type of performance is not good enough to achieve anything in the ACC, so definitionally it’s not up to the standard that was messaged in the preseason. The incongruity there will naturally ignite the powder keg, especially when the head coach shows contempt for press conference questions about improvement.
It’s getting hot in here. There is a lot of potential energy, and State will now entertain two opportunities to beat ostensibly quality ACC teams at home. I could be a prisoner of the moment here, but these two weeks feel enormous, not just for this season, but for the direction of the program.