10 days ago I wrote about responses. How State needed to decide how they would approach an opponent, on paper, much worse than them. It started strong against App State, faded late, but held on. It left behind a less than desirable aftertaste.
Saturday followed a similar script, and yet it felt so different. Don’t get me wrong, there were still mistakes and breakdowns and major issues against the Cards. But this game felt much more about the Pack making timely plays than it did “building a lead against a bad team and squandering it late.” And I think you needed to see that from this team.
Everything about this game felt chaotic. The Carter full of rain and fans in ponchos in what was definitely not the forecasted “stray” thunderstorms. Louisville trotting out Lincoln Kienholtz after calling him a game-time decision unprompted last week. State losing multiple offensive linemen, and defensive players against a team known for its explosiveness. Start to finish, the viewing experience from the stands was hectic.
But you saw the capital R response that you were hoping to see against a Louisville team that is much better than their 2-3 record. Transfers that had underperformed to start the year, depth pieces seeing their first career snaps of consequence, a quarterback with the spotlight squarely on him - guys on both sides of the ball rose to the occasion with memorable plays that kept putting State back in the right spots.
Collectively this group met the moment. The numbers and analytics aren’t pretty everywhere, but when you score more points than your opponent, that’s all that matters.
CJ Bailey Shines
C.J. Bailey showed you why this staff fought so hard to retain him this offseason. Considering the Vanderbilt result, the nasty conditions to start the game, and the crazy injuries around him, I’m comfortable labeling this as the best performance of his career.
Bailey was confident, decisive, and fundamentally sound for most of the day. The one major mistake in the endzone was a ball he definitely wants back, but one that was aided by Victor Snow cutting his route. Bailey was effective on the ground, responded well to 3+ drops from his receivers (and the aforementioned interception) and threw for a career high 373 yards.
There’s been a ton of up and down to his game, but man, I am super impressed that he brought his best stuff to the table in a pressure pacekd spot. This is what stepping up looks like:
I can’t imagine what it must have been like for him post Vanderbilt. For him to play his best ball two weeks later against State’s highest rated opponent to date is a really good sign. C.J. getting confidence and clicking with a skill group that seems to be settling is how you can take advantage of a schedule that features just two more games out of the state of North Carolina.
Receivers Stepping Up
State’s pass catching rotations are starting to trim down, and with it, you’re starting to see the Dudes emerge.
Keenan Jackson continues to be solid in all elements of his game as the Pack’s leading receiver on the year. Jojo Trader had a big day, even with his drops, leading the team with 92 yards. Victor Snow had two massive third down conversions after no showing the first part of the season. Tyran Warren showed you his speed tool with a 34 yard vertical score to give State a 13 point lead out of halftime.
There is one guy that I don’t see getting enough love on this offense yet: Preston Douglas. Through Kurt Roper’s playcalling (he has been on a heater since Virginia) and his own natural feel for space, it seems like he’s always open. He’s been State’s most consistent offensive weapon and a go to guy in high leverage situations:
Past these guys, Chance Robinson and Ashton Locklear were the only other wide receivers to see snaps, and they only saw 15 and 4, respectively. Each of these receivers give you a trait - Keenan’s all around game and size, Trader and Snow’s shiftiness, Warren’s speed, Douglas’s reliability and ability to find space.
It’s not the best skill group in the country, but you’re seeing an identify form here. That identity will continue to be stress tested, especially if State is without Duke Scott next week against a surging Wake Forest.
Garrett Tujague Needs His Flowers
If I had a game ball, I’d be giving it to Garrett Tujague and his room.
If you haven’t been following it closely, Spike Sowells hasn’t played since the first half against Richmond. Teague Anderson has slid from Right Tackle to Center and has played his ass off since. Rico Jackson has been figuring things out at Tackle. Mostly, it’s been an admirable effort from both guys.
But in the days leading up to the Louisville contest, it came out that Jimarion McCrimmon was also injured. That meant Texas transfer Daniel Cruz would draw in at Center for the first time.
That wasn’t all: Yousef Mugharbill went out in the fourth quarter in a tie game, which forced Trent Mtichell into the game at left guard. State finished this game with an entirely new left tackle, guard, and Center.
It also finished this game on the ground with Will Wilson.
You can’t overstate how impressive it is for State to go this deep against a team with Louisville’s front and win consistently. Garrett Tujague is one of Dave Doeren’s best hires in his tenure, and he continues to elevate everyone he works with, regardless of recruiting pedigree.
Havoc, Havoc, Havoc
One of defensive coordinator DJ Eliot’s stated goals with this unit and his system is to generate Havoc. Pass deflections, tackles for loss, sacks. State had not been great in this department to start the year.
Saturday was easily the best Havoc performance of an Eliot unit since the start of his tenure. State created a havoc play on 25% of its defensive snaps against the Cardinals, which is in the 96th percentile of performances per Game on Paper.
That performance was powered by many, but headlined by Harvey Dyson. His chase down tackle and forced fumble on Keyjuan Brown was worth ~3.63 points per Game on Paper - in a 3 point game - and he permanently sidelined Louisville’s offense with his sack of Lincoln Kienholtz with 4:30 left. He raised his hand this week and said he needed to improve, and he came up with two of the biggest plays of the game.
You also have to give Popo Aguirre some love for recovering three fumbles, a new record for an N.C. State defender in a single game. There’s certainly luck involved on the turnover front, but State also dropped multiple interceptions here - this turnover margin could’ve been even more slanted than it was.
This is the most explosive offense State will play all year. Louisville’s offense was fully healthy for this one, despite a “game time decision” from Lincoln Kienholtz and WR LeWayne McCoy. This was going to be a tough assignment without State making drive altering plays, and they did enough to squeak this one out despite allowing 8.66 yards per play.
This is going to be the formula against better competition if State wants to continue winning games as underdogs - timely plays and getting teams off schedule.
Season Trajectory Adjuster?
If you’ve read my stuff for a while, you know I lean heavily on SP+ as a power ratings signal. I found it interesting that State has dropped from ~40th in SP+ to 62nd since Richmond. On the surface, I can understand what is happening here: State lost to Vanderbilt and played really poorly in the second half, they squeaked by App State, and needed lots of turnover variance to beat Louisville on Saturday.
What’s interesting about those three games: State has trailed by a combined 1 second.
I think this team is probably an above average FBS team on paper. But with this schedule, confidence building, and a pissed off locker room looking to debunk a narrative, there’s plenty of opportunity here.
The Louisville game was a matchup many folks pegged to be the potentially season defining contest. It might’ve looked different than we thought - Louisville being 2-3 now - but that offseason guess might prove to be correct. And while Louisville is below .500 right now, they’re still rated as the 32nd best team in the country in SP+.
If State can get past a good Wake Forest team, they’ll be 4-2 and 2-1 in conference heading into the bye week. They’ll get a terrible Stanford team on the road, and another terrible California team at home the following week.
I won’t get ahead of myself because winning in college football is harder than ever, and Wake Forest looks much better than anticipated. But when you expect the least…who knows where this thing could go from here.
That’s the fun of this sport.