Dave Doeren was hired at NC State in the winter of 2012. Since he’s been the head coach, I have graduated high school, graduated college, met my wife, worked at the same company for six years, worked at a different company, bought a house, and am expecting a child. It’s crazy how long it’s been.
Perhaps Doeren’s most underrated achievement was his ability to remain polarizing for seemingly all fourteen years of his tenure, even despite his relatively stoic public persona. From the slow build at the beginning to the meat of the tenure to the falling action, everybody was always ready to argue about Dave Doeren. Now, 5,079 days since the hiring was announced, the dust can finally settle on that . . . probably . . . not.
I believe that Dave’s time in Raleigh deserves to age gracefully. The criticisms of the recent teams were valid, and the budding incongruity of the staff’s strengths with the sport’s evolution (or devolution) is justification enough to see the need for change. But those things aren’t mutually exclusive. Both can be true. Doeren was hired to do a specific job, and he did it well. Eventually, that job changed, and then it didn’t go as well.
Dave Doeren’s time in Raleigh can be broken into three parts.
2013-2016: The Rebuild
2017-2023: The Height
2024-2026: The Falling Action
The Rebuild
Dave Doeren was one of the only active head coaches in America who had turned over a roster at his current school with a 3-4 year rebuild. The idea of a coach’s “first senior class” is completely alien in 2026, but this was how it started. Graduate transfers were just then coming into vogue, and Doeren was active in the not-yet-portal, but State did have to cycle through an entire four years to get a full roster rebuild.
His first seniors came in 2016, which was clearly his best team yet, but a team that imploded its way to a 5-6 record. It’s pretty well documented that he would have been fired if he finished 5-7, but his lapdog in UNC was always ready to capitulate. State wrapped that season with the momentum of two noteworthy wins, but Doeren was still 9-23 in the ACC, a statistic that is used against him to this day. It was, however, the launch of a stretch of competitiveness in the ACC that State hadn’t reached in decades.
The Height
The first real senior class was the next year in 2017, and that was a good football team. From there through 2023, NC State won 70% or more of its ACC games in four of seven seasons. During those seven years, Doeren’s ACC record was 35-23, and that includes the statistical outlier of the 1-7 season in 2019. To find four total seasons with an ACC winning percentage of 70+% prior to 2017, you have to go back to 1986.
State found itself as a legitimate contender for the ACC in 2017, 2021, and 2023, all years when it was 7 points or less from a win that would have propelled it to the title game. In 2018 and 2020, it fell seven total points shy of two bids to New Year’s Six bowl games (remember those?). I don’t frame these as non-victory victories or some sort of moral accomplishment. The point is to illustrate the new level at which the program was operating.
There was no significant change in access to talent that drove this elevation to consistent contender. It was simply a better process of finding, evaluating, and developing players. A share of noteworthy recruiting wins garnished the roster with names like Kentavius Street, Nyheim Hines and Payton Wilson. But for every one of those, there was a Bradley Chubb, a Jaylen Samuels, a Garrett Bradbury, a BJ Hill, and an Isaiah Moore. Even beyond those, there were tons of names that weren’t stars, but were usable, reliable pieces that built the rest of the roster. Guys like Tyler Baker-Williams, Jaylon Scott, and Joe Sculthorpe.
Doeren’s hit rate on “at or above projected” was the defining feature of the best parts of his tenure. He elevated the program in exactly the way that NC State had to do it. It was never going to level up in that era without establishing an in-state funnel and doing more with less. At a bare minimum, this success should be acknowledged.
Many of the line-burner losses that proved prohibitive during this stretch will haunt State fans forever, or at least until that hurdle is cleared. I’m sure it’s no different for Dave himself. State 100% should have beaten Clemson in 2017, just like it should have beaten Louisville in 2023. The Wolfpack is in the title game with either of those wins. It showed up to Winston-Salem in 2021 ready to play for the Atlantic Division with half a healthy defense, and I’m still here waiting for that final possession to play out after the onside kick recovery. It also had Miami beat on that night in 2020, and likely plays in the Orange Bowl with that win.
People want championships. Success is not measured in standard deviations from the mean. It’s measured in dichotomies. Dave Doeren and his tenure-long polarity is proof of that. The answer to “did you get there?” was never yes, and for some, that’s the end of the conversation.
I staunchly believe that, had the sport not turned itself upside down, Doeren eventually would have won one. The notion about Doeren that I really do hate is that State was allowing mediocrity as it retained him through the height of his tenure. The question should always be “what gives me the best chance to win a championship?” Being a contender in nearly half your seasons is certainly a compelling offer when trying to answer that question.
The idea of a concrete ceiling just beneath that championship is farcical. There is way too much variance for such a thing to be possible. If State had remained a serious ACC contender in nearly 50% of its seasons, as it was, it would have broken through.
That’s not how change works, though.
The Falling Action
In the 2023 season opener, there were 2 starters on NC State’s two-deep that were incoming transfers. That was quarterback Brennan Armstrong and nickel Robert Kennedy. In the 2024 season opener, that number had grown to eight. The sport had changed. NC State was ranked and had brought in an exciting class of instant-impact transfers. Nobody knew it yet, but the joints had started to weaken. The line of demarcation exists here.
Over the next three years, NC State’s football program saw a noticeable drop-off in competitiveness. It went 9-15 against Power Five opponents and 8-12 in the ACC. Money raced ahead of other program inputs in the order of importance, while player development dropped a cylinder. The greatest strength of the Doeren administration was losing its value, and a whole new set of responsibilities was emerging for head coaches.
This is not to blame NIL for the end of Dave Doeren. That would relieve the staff of any real responsibility, and that would be erroneous. With respect to coaching, it’s more accurate to say that the shifting demand could not be met by a staff that had been targeted to do a different job. Managing the roster in a state of yearly turnover while making tough calls on who to keep and who to cut was never a strength of this group, nor was blending all the brand new components into a cohesive team.
2024 was a messy season, and I remember remarking that it was the first time since at least 2016 that it felt like the results came in below the talent level. The on-field performance had become increasingly disoriented and void of an identity that was so clearly defined at the height of the tenure. 2026 then ran a highlighter over some of the broken processes that have to be addressed if the program is to succeed.
Doeren’s comments from his presser about the program needing better investment are not wrong. NC State does not have roster funding at a championship level. That is a long way from a controversial statement. State needs to increase its funding if it wants to win, full stop. It also needs to establish more efficient processes for asset management.
Doeren is a relationships guy. I know it doesn’t seem like it when salty Dave shows out behind the podium, but he is a relationships guy inside the program. Check out his voicemail to Thayer Thomas if you don’t believe me. I imagine it’s hard to balance the greatest motivator for him as a coach with the need to ultimately look at his players as numbers in a spreadsheet at the end of each season. I don’t know the man, but I don’t think he’s wired to thrive in a transactional world. Thus, here we are.
Doeren’s Legacy
To me, there are two legacies for Dave Doeren. This first is outside of football. It comes through things like Victory Day, OnePack Empowered, his support of building resources for developmentally disabled children, and the fact that his football program was clean for 14 years. It’s easy to put that last part in the corner with how many cheaters have won because of it and experienced zero repercussions, but it’s still a reflection of the leadership. You can comfortably say Dave Doeren was honestly a good person. He should be remembered as a positive contributor to the community.
On the field, it will probably remain polarizing. For some, the lack of hardware will define the tenure as one that couldn’t clear the last hurdle. For others, the quality of the process that allowed it to reach the last hurdle so many times will be the defining element. I’m not going to tell you how to think, but for me, I believe it should age well. It was time for it to end, but a lot of the things it provided still have value.
The ending was a little messier than planned. Doeren had a chance to take a graceful off-ramp last year after beating UNC and winning a bowl, but somebody looking for a face-saving exit probably isn’t the person you want leading your program anyway. One feature of genuinely wanting to win bad enough is that you don’t get to choose the ending, and that’s what happened. He went out swinging, and I respect it. I wish Dave all the best with whatever is next for him, and I’m excited for NC State to tackle the new era of the sport.