We’re back at it, folks: taking stock time. Where is State better or worse than last year? This week, we’re checking out the defense.
I’ve found this to be a helpful way to understand 1) who is playing what in this wacky transfer portal world with so many new faces, and 2) where strengths and weaknesses might lie with the team heading into August.
Year 1 in the D.J. Eliot tenure was not perfect on the field. It was heartbreaking off of it.
Eliot came to Raleigh looking to run a new system, with new faces from coaching staff and personnel perspective, and he did so navigating some of the most adverse circumstances I can imagine any human being navigating. His daughter Drue lost her battle with cancer at just 18 years old on September 26th. I would highly recommend reading this story.
To say that I’m rooting hard for this side to take a massive step forward would be an understatement. There’s legitimate hope for that for many reasons, but among them is the fact that State just wasn’t very good last year defensively. It’s much easier to make statistical progress when you’re trying to bounce off the lows.
My word for this unit in 2026 is Rebound. There’s plenty of room to bounce back from last year’s performance. There are lots of warranted question marks on this side of the ball, but I think this is a group with playmakers at each level and a nice blend of high upside youth and older faces that can make this group a tougher out.
First, a look at last year’s unit:
2025 Strengths
Limiting the explosive run - State was in the top 20th percentile of explosive runs allowed
Respectable in forcing long distance 3rd down conversions, in the 63rd percentile in average third down distance. The flip side to that is…
2025 Weaknesses
“Get off the field dude.” - State was in the 12th percentile last year on late downs success rate. Giving up first downs and touchdowns late was a problem, resulting in a common phrase in my household
Down to down effectiveness - State was in the 21st percentile last year in non-explosive EPA plays. State yielded a ton even on plays that weren’t backbreaking. Which makes the back breakers hurt even more.
Havoc - State was 90th in Havoc rate last year (pass deflections, turnovers, and negative plays.) There’s got to be a major step forward this year.
Truthfully, State’s defense graded out really poorly in most spots. There’s got to be steps forward in lots of areas if State is going to challenge for ten wins.
Interior Tackles (NT, DT) 📉
If you polled Pack fans on the group that worries them the most on the team, the front four would likely be the top response.
That’s not out of nowhere. State returns just a few hundred snaps here from a year, and is asking a true sophomore to be a huge piece of this defense.
Josiah Victor is the young buck who currently projects to lead the Nose in snaps. I really liked what I saw from him last year as a true freshman, and year 2 of major game action is where we see large jumps for most players, especially in the trenches. But going from a 25% snap rate guy to a 60-70% one is a different task.
Behind him, we don’t know a ton - Ka’Tron Evans has had his eligibility yo-yo’d a bit, and while he’s eligible for Virginia, there’s no telling what will happen after that. AJ Prim is a former Junior College transfer who has worked hard and has cross trained at Nose and Tackle.
Just because you haven’t seen a guy perform live in game, doesn’t mean he can’t. But the lack of proven answers here - particularly with Virginia’s uber experienced offensive line looming - is worrying for State’s big early games.
At the tackle spot, Isaiah Shirley is firmly the guy. His pick-6 last year in Winston-Salem was one of the highlights of the season, but there’s room to be more consistent. Behind him are more young, unproven names that have flashed - Colby Cronk and his record setting power clean, the aforementioned AJ Prim, Omarion Abraham. How many of these guys are ready to go and play meaningful snaps?
This is the question mark group. Replacing Brandon Cleveland’s production here won’t be easy, and you’re going to have to live with some growing pains as the young talent gets up to Division 1 speed.
It wouldn’t totally surprise me if this group is good, but there’s not a lot to go off of before week 0.
The Ends (DE, Jack Backer) ➡️
Those front four questions extend to the edges of the defensive line, but I think there’s more room for optimism here than one might think at first glance.
At defensive end, Joseph Adedire (uh-day-dee-ray) is fellow TRT writer Alec Lower’s favorite football player on the planet, which is a good thing. His film is solid. He’s had limited opportunities in Raleigh after transferring in from Texas Tech because of injuries, but he’s really flashed in those limited snaps.
Adedire was State’s fourth highest graded PFF player on defense last year, albeit in those limited snaps, but as a former Big 12 All Conference name as a freshman, it’s clear he is effective when he’s healthy.
He’ll have Chase Bond behind him, another young player who has gotten rave reviews this fall camp. I was pleasantly surprised with what we saw from him last year as a true freshman who came in with zero recruiting pedigree. If he is legitimately pushing Adedire in camp like we’ve heard, and it’s because both of them are playing well, I’m feeling much better about this spot.
At Jack - a stand-up linebacker / end hybrid - Harvey Dyson comes in from Tulane. Dyson was incredible last year as a pass rusher, with one of the highest PFF pass rushing grades in the country and 11.5 TFLs. He’s bigger and more athletic than Cian Slone, and he will have every opportunity to help plug the Havoc hole this defense had last year. State has got to find a way to get home this year.
Sterling Dixon is another guy who can contribute here. Last year’s Alabama transfer was unable to play due to injury, but he’s been another guy receiving a ton of fall camp compliments.
I think both of these guys - plus freaky athletic Ke’Von Carter - offer more athleticism and pass rush ability than what Cian Slone offered last year. Slone pressured the quarterback 40 times last year, but only tallied two sacks. He was, however, a really smart player who could also play the run reasonably well, and his motor never quit. Hopefully the athleticism buff here can account for a potential lack of effectiveness against the run.
In totality, I think this group is close to a “neutral” or push from last year’s group. It could be that it takes a minute for the youth to get going, and what looks like a below-average unit at the start of the year really blossoms into a top third ACC unit - that isn’t likely, but I could see it.
Interior Linebacker ➡️
Anytime you can get a player who played meaningful snaps in a National Championship game with good tape, you take it excitedly. Popo Aguirre comes in from Miami slated to lead this group in snaps. State’s linebackers pretty much do not come off the field under Dave Doeren, and when you add that Popo has already been named a captain despite being in Raleigh for less than 7 months, I’d be surprised if we saw anyone else lead this position in snaps.
Joining him as a projected starter is AJ Richardson, the former FCS All American who missed a large portion of last year due to injury. I was shocked to see that he only logged 90 snaps last year - it felt like he played more than that. It was good to see him return for the UNC game, and it doesn’t sound like health is going to be an issue for him this year.
Neither of these two are superior athletes, but are sound, typically gap responsible players who are sure tacklers. I think these two are in for big statistical years given the aforementioned tendency to not pull backers off the field.
The first reserve you’ll see though is Da’Kaari Nelson, a former top 250 linebacker recruit who transferred in from Penn State. This is a very large dude who has had 72 total snaps at linebacker in three years. A complete mystery box.
Ziggy Moore is a true freshman who is reportedly flying all over the place and could be a star down the line. Maybe you see his role grow in the second half of the year as he gets more settled into game weeks.
With State’s reliance on a handful of guys, I expect this room to be as effective as it was last year, though depth is a question. And this room unfortunately did go 4 guys deep last year, pulling departed Kenny Soares from a pass rushing role into a full time backer. Fingers crossed this room stays healthy.
Nickel 📈
State’s Nickel was previous DC Tony Gibson’s “most important position” to his 3-3-5 defense. Tyler Baker-Williams is the guy I immediately think of as the standard for what we’ve seen
I think it’s likely State has its best Nickel position since TBW in 2022, and it’s from two faces that saw a lot of growing pains and unexpected snaps last year.
Jackson Vick is in year 5, and while the first half of the year was pretty rough for him, he improved down the stretch. He’s cross training at Nickel and at Corner, and with ~800 career snaps under his belt.
You’ve also got Assad Brown returning. Brown was forced into action last year when the Safety room suffered some sort of magical injury blight, and he played really well against expectations in that spot.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Vick moved around as State looks to get its best five defensive backs on the field. When you’re taking one of your nickels and moving him around so another guy from this room can get on the field, that gives me confidence that this room is a strength of the defense. In fact, the multiplicity of this entire secondary is one of the biggest reasons for optimism on this side of the ball.
Safety 📈
Last year’s Safety group wasn’t the most talented, and it was ravaged with injury. It was a crazy combination that led to younger players like Tristan Teasdale and Assad Brown playing in spots nobody would’ve foreseen coming into the season.
Oh, the impact a single offseason can have.
State landed all-name and potential all-conference candidate King Mack, they return numerous players, and suddenly Safety looks like a strength.
Mack has played at Penn State and Alabama and is an old dude. Experience in the secondary is always appreciated, and Mack brings 800ish total snaps to Safety over three years. He flies around the field as a true, rangy safety and is unafraid to get involved in the run game. Having a legitimate playmaker with elite speed and athleticism is a welcome change here.
Joining him in starting role appears to be Ronnie Royal, who also rode the youth rollercoaster last year. His struggles have never been related to skill or physical traits - he will make plays nobody else on this roster makes - but instead have been between the ears. If he’s “right” in where he ends up more often than he’s wrong, he’s going to make some insane plays that you won’t see from anybody else.
Behind these two is a deep bench of guys who got playing time last year. Brody Barnhardt got hurt and was on a similar learning track as Royal. Tristan Teasdell was flying around last year as a true freshman at 170 hustling and doing his best. Assad Brown even got run here and actually played really well.
The point is that, while it almost can’t get worse (famous last words), there’s real room for optimism with this group. Mack brings “top 2 league” experience and leadership, and Royal brings freaky athleticism. I don’t see this group as some unstoppable force, but I do think you’ll see improved consistency and some really exciting plays given the personnel.
Cornerback 📉
There has been some crazy hype around Brian Nelson this offseason. Last year he was the clear #2 corner behind Devon Marshall Island, and it sounds like he’s taking a meaningful step forward as this year’s alpha. He was up and down with mostly good spots, but he had a team low 29/100 rushing defense grade per PFF, as he showed at times a hesitancy to get dirty and missed eight tackles. Still, his tape shows a guy whose highs are really high, and the hype around him is serious.
Continuing on the theme of “a known quantity next to a bunch of question marks” on this side of the ball: CB2. There’s several candidates to take this role over:
Jaren Sensabaugh - it sounds like the former Missouri transfer is the leading candidate here. He’s got an NFL frame at 6’2” 200 pounds (and a former NFL dad) and looked really good in the scrimmage a few weeks back.
Ondre Evans - another former SEC transfer, Evans has the “best” recruiting profile as a top 100 recruit in the 2024 class. The former Georgia Bulldog has struggled with injuries - if he can stay healthy, his ceiling is the highest of the group.
Caden Gordon - every year there’s an “under the radar” name that emerges and surprises. Gordon switched from Wide Receiver just three years ago and is still growing and improving - the sophomore is another name to watch and will certainly get rotational snaps
Jackson Vick has also spent a fair amount of time this offseason cross training here and at Nickel and should be able to contribute if State wants to get a certain group of guys on the field.
Jamel Johnson is back on the team, but with where the current NCAA circus around eligibility sits, he’s not eligible to play at the time of this writing.
Still, this spot - although unproven - seems to be in a reasonably good spot. I’m high on Sensabaugh and think this group in totality can rise up and be close to neutral year over year, despite my “📉” rating.
Wrapping up this side of the ball, we’ve got:
2 positions trending up 📈
2 positions trending down 📉
2 spots that looks neutral ➡️
It wouldn’t take a lot for this defense to be better as a whole. Last year when State hired D.J. Eliot, I put these numbers together to spot trends in his defenses. His teams mostly saw significant from year one to year two - that makes sense for most coordinators worth hiring - and I’m a believer that this trend will continue.
I also hope we see the trend of a simpler defensive structure. Eliot tried to employ a lot of more complex rule based coverages last year before simplifying things down the stretch. That allowed guys to cut loose and play ball, and while there are strategic advantages to the multiplicity of what Eliot was trying to do last year, I’m fearful of employing that same structure with so many big games in the first half of the season.
The question is how much improvement can this side incur. If State moves from a ~bottom 30ish defense to a top 75ish defense, it’s going to need its offense to take a leap even from last year to even think about approaching 10 wins. If it can jump inside the top 60 or higher, it will be outperforming most preseason expectations and give State a solid base to work with.
I don’t think this unit will be elite, but I do think there’s enough growth year over year to be a fun watch. And it doesn’t need to be said again, but I’m rooting like hell for these guys. All of them.