Taking Stock: N.C. State's 2026 offense v.s. 2025
Position by position - how does State's 2026 offensive personnel compare to last year's?
When the College Football Playoff signs off for the year in January, I wonder how the heck I’m going to get through the next seven months. Then one day I wake up, and it’s August 13th. It’s about that time.
So, with only 15 days left until we see State and Virginia face off, I’m leaning into my annual tradition:going position by position and understanding if I think State is better or worse in each position group against the previous year, mainly looking at first and second stringers. Today we’re starting with the offense.
I’ve found this to be a helpful way to understand 1) who is playing where in this wacky transfer portal world with so many new faces, and 2) where strengths and weaknesses might lie with the team heading into late August.
Last year, I wrote that C.J. Bailey and crew would be tasked to lead that group if they were going to push past expectations. That is true once again in 2026, but Bailey will be doing it without many familiar names and pieces who have transferred out or moved on.
Up and down 2025
The Pack’s 2025 campaign on offense was largely good. State finished the year 30th in adjusted EPA (expected points added) per play, one of the best indicators of overall success for an offense. In Kurt Roper’s first year as a full time play caller for the Pack, that’s a pretty good result.
The issue was the consistency. State’s offense no showed games versus premier competition in Notre Dame and Miami, and it failed to meet the mark in a 23-21 loss at home to Virginia Tech, who had just fired their coach.
Hollywood Smothers was a revelation. After showing flashes in 2024, he solidified himself as one of the best backs in the country. Unfortunately he is wearing burnt orange and white right now, playing football in Austin, Texas.
That rushing success helped empower everything else on this offense. While C.J. taking another step is the most important step in State reaching its ceiling, I’d argue that keeping the ground game as effective as it was last year is how State prevents the floor from falling out from underneath it.
My word for the offense in 2026 is growth. I think there are real outcomes of this year’s season where State’s offense can be better than it was in 2025, as crazy as that might sound. This is year three of CJ and Kurt Roper working together. It’s going to require tangible growth and projection from a whole host of players, though - this isn’t a group I project to be elite from day one, but with youth and some of the pedigree entering the program via the portal, I could absolutely see this group lighting up the back half of the schedule.
2025 Strengths
Pass effectiveness: State’s offense was largely effective through the air. They were 26th nationally in EPA/dropback, and ~80th percentile nationally in yards per dropback and passing EPA/play
Explosive Plays: this didn’t necessarily square with my memory, but State was in the 87th percentile nationally in explosive play rate, and it came both on the ground and through the air.
Late Downs: this unit did a lot of Houdini-ing last year. Will Wilson’s 73% success rate in his short yardage packages did a lot of work, and while State’s late downs success rate was only 56%, that’s impressive given a statistic we’ll see in the section below.
2025 Weaknesses
Negative plays - State was 84th last year in Havoc Rate allowed. They were in the 13th percentile in stuff rate (runs that are stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.) Negative plays and turnovers were an issue for this group.
Third down average distance - State was in the 22nd percentile nationally in average 3rd down distance last year. Certainly related to bullet number one.
Meeting the occasion - more anecdotal than statistical, this side missed the mark in several spots: the snowball at Duke, an embarrassing loss at home to Virginia Tech, no shows against MIami and Notre Dame - there wasn’t enough consistency with this group week in and week out. But hey, that’s football. The other teams are trying, too.
This group was good last year, but for State to reach the ten win mark that Dave himself called out as meaningful this year, there’s another gear of consistency to reach.
Now, the 2026 position groups:
Quarterback 📈
C.J. Bailey is back. C.J. has looked really good at times in his career, and he’s looked not as good at times in his career.
The main areas of improvement you’ll see on his tape are post snap decision making - read game decisions, late movement from safeties - and ball placement. But C.J. has shown tremendous growth since he first filled in for Grayson McCall as a wide eyed true freshman. His pre-snap reads, ability to run in both designed and scramble situations, and his touch have all improved drastically since his freshman year. He’s a good quarterback, and he has the potential to elevate himself into really good or great territory this year.
There’s some special stuff on these clips:
Battering ram Will Wilson is also back. Will ran for an absolutely silly 10 touchdowns and 3.4 yards per carry in short yardage situations when defenses knew what was coming. He converted 78% of his carries successfully. That was without any passing game elements. You figure a pop pass or a leaked tight end for a big play attempt are coming at some point.
There’s no sugar coating it: with this schedule, State should have the better quarterback room in all but one or two games this year. This is the room that has to step up again if they want to take advantage. With another offseason under both of these guys’ belts, this group should be better than they were in 2025.
Running Back 📉
There’s not much State could’ve reasonably done to not take a step back here. Hollywood Smothers is just different. But that doesn’t mean this room is going to be bad.
Hollywood was incredible, but he didn’t make it through an entire season in Raleigh fully healthy. We know Duke dealt with injuries in High School, but he’s had a light load so far in college. He made the most of his two major appearances last year, running for 7 yards per carry in his workhorse role against Georgia Tech and Memphis. Duke gets it done differently than Hollywood, but he actually forced similar Missed Tackle and Yards after Contact numbers. This is a guy more than capable of putting up 1,000 yards, if the opportunity is there.
But the full blown opportunity might not be there after all. Davion Gause comes over from North Carolina with nearly 150 college touches and plenty of experience. Interestingly enough, he was selected by the N.C. State staff as a pre-season All Conference selection for the media to pick from at ACC Media Days. That, plus some Fall Camp rumors and praise, indicates some signal from N.C. State’s staff that they’re confident in his ability to be more than just a back up.
There’s also a few younger players that could offer some upside here. Jonathan Paylor is a name most N.C. State fans know, and Deandre Desinor is a Sophomore that has flashed in practice. Is Paylor ready to go, and is the opportunity there this year?
I don’t think it’s reasonable to believe you’ll have Smothers’ game breaking potential on a down to down basis, but if Duke can stay healthy and Gause takes a step forward, I’m not sure the backslide from this position will be as bad as some might think.
Wide Receiver📉
This room has undergone the most change out of any position group on the roster.
Terrell Anderson and Noah Rogers are two departures projected to be top targets at Southern Cal and Alabama. Read that again. Wesley Grimes was hot wheels and explosive down the field, and he’s working to make the San Francisco 49ers roster. Teddy Hoffman is ineligible this year, which leaves Keenan Jackson as the sole returner from last year’s core group. That’s a ton of turnover.
But it’s not starting from scratch. The aforementioned Keenan Jackson is consistent and an adept blocker who should operate more naturally out wide this year. I’m also a believer that there’s some juice to what State has brought into the room via the portal. I’m a big fan of Victor Snow, an all conference 5’8” bolt of lightning from Buffalo who figures to be your starting slot. Jojo Trader is a “pedigree name” from Miami who played ball with C.J. growing up. Davion Dozier is a big play threat from App State that has turned some heads in camp.
We’ve also seen freshman wide receivers make big impacts out of seemingly nowhere. I wouldn’t be surprised if a guy like Tyreek Copper, who broke a gajillion records at Kinston last year, finds his way into the rotation and surprises.
This room doesn’t have the obvious fire power that the last two years have had, but the hope is chemistry with C.J. and experience help bridge that gap. I’m looking at Snow and Trader as two main sources of new optimism for me, but again, I think this group will naturally be a bit behind last year’s.
Tight End 📉
I can vividly remember the day Justin Joly committed to State out of the portal. It’s weird to think about him not playing football in red and white next year, though I suppose that’s the nature of the portal at this point - you better appreciate every snap, because it moves quick.
Despite Joly’s prolific playmaking, this wasn’t a one man room. Cody Hardy was a capital D dude. Watching him wrap block and move people places they did not want to go was very enjoyable. Both he and Dante Daniels were dynamite in spots as pass catchers too. Together, that is 1,034 snaps from last year’s Tight End position that you’re losing.
Of course that means that this group has new names abound. The most interesting name is probably Vander Ploog. That is an awesome name, and he comes with an awesome pedigree. Transferring in from Oregon as a former top 250 national recruit, Ploog has a serious ceiling as an athletic, pass catching tight end, but without any collegiate experience to back that up.
Hunter Provience is the opposite in many ways. Provience comes over a National Champion from FCS Montana State, and has excelled primarily as an in line tight end. Provience will profile mostly as a blocker - he’s less human road grader, like Cody Hardy, and more of a consistent, fundamentally sound guy who will be in the right place at the right time. Despite the FCS leap, he did garner a ton of SEC interest this portal cycle.
These two figure to be the headliners this year, but you’ll see Preston Douglas and Ian Flynt fighting for snaps. They totaled 57 snaps in 2025, so what will you see from these two?
You could feel confident in what you have by the end of the year, but this group is a total mystery box to me. A couple of years ago, State’s run struggles popped up frequently due to poor Tight End play. This group can’t afford to struggle with the same issues if State wants to reach its goals.
Left Tackle 📉
Jacarrius Peak will forever be one of my favorite N.C. State football players to watch. He was nasty. He was deceptively quick. He gave a ton of effort and “punched up” for his size. He was one of the highest paid players in the Transfer Portal this offseason for a reason, and I hate that he got hurt at South Carolina almost immediately.
Jimarrion McCrimmon will do his best to fill the gaping void that Peak leaves behind. The ECU transfer is getting some solid reports from fall camp are good - Coach Doeren recently said that he “doesn’t notice him” in practice, complimenting him on his consistency in keeping C.J. clean in practice.
I noticed on film that he has a tendency to under use his upper body as a blocker, with inconsistent hand placement at times. That’s a super coachable thing, and if he’s showing up consistently at fall camp, that’s a great sign. It’s one thing to do it against State’s defensive line in practice - who has turned over pretty much every important name on the line - and another to do it against a major step up in competition from the AAC.
I think this position could be an above average, or even good, ACC spot, but it would be tough to top Jacarrius.
Left and Right Guards ➡️
The interior of the offensive line last year was a bit of a mixed bag. Veteran Anthony Carter took a slight step back and missed a couple of games. Kamen Smith, Val Erickson, Yousef Mugharbil, and Spike Sowells all rotated in and got significant snaps. Spike was really good, but you need to see him slide to Center this year.
Smith and Mugharbil will get the first crack at left and right guard this year. Smith is an incredible athlete with a high ceiling, and Mugharbil has overcome some tremendous adversity to be in a position to start. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Rico Jackson break through by the end of the year. He can play guard or tackle, and he flashed at times last year. If he can be more consistent in the run game, I’d expect to see him starting at some point.
Overall I see this group offering more consistency than last year’s unit, but moving Spike from this position to Center keeps this a “Neutral” rating for me.
Center 📈
I was surprised at how capable Jalen Grant was last year, but this is Spike Sowells’ time. Spike showed flashes of an all conference performer in 2025 as a true freshman, and I expect him to be even more impactful moving back to his home base position as a Sophomore.
Spike’s physical tools are impressive, but watching his tape, you can see the football IQ and “coach’s son” impact immediately. By the end of the year, he was an effective communicator and reader of stunts and games from opposing defensive lines. I fully expect him to have the kind of year that helps formulate a reputation as State’s next All Conference caliber center.
Right Tackle 📈
Teague Andersen slots back into Right Tackle for his second year in Raleigh. Teague is a very large man who, by all accounts, handled the transition from Utah State to the ACC well. His PFF grade remained virtually the same overall despite the jump in competition.
He’s going to be a dependable anchor for this group. If he can continue taking steps forward as a fourth year player, and you see growth from Kamen Smith at right guard, the right side of this offensive line could be really fun to watch from a run blocking perspective.
After accounting for all of our position groups’ changes, we’re left with:
2 positions trending up from 2025 📈
4 positions trending down 📉
3 positions that look neutral ➡️
That doesn’t mean the offense will be worse than last year, and I’m going to be wrong on some of these guesses. There’s a wide range of outcomes for this group, but here’s what I feel pretty confident about:
State’s offensive line should be pretty good
The running back room will take a step back, but will still be top ~ third group in the ACC, more than capable of supporting the offense
This group’s success likely comes down to C.J. taking a step forward and finding consistency from a new group of wide receivers
Sometimes it’s as simple as needing your best players to be your best players. If C.J. can take another step forward this year, there are definitely ten wins on this schedule. Of course, that’s counting if’s and maybe’s, and there’s an entire other side of the ball to discuss - which we’ll do next week.