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Wolfpack football in 2026 has existed at opposite ends of the spectrum.
For context, State entered the season rated as the 43rd “best” team in the country per the SP+ model from Bill Connelly. After week zero’s Virginia lashing, they dropped into the 70s. After the Richmond blowout, they round tripped back up to 41st nationally. Both of those games moved the model’s perception of State by ~8 points. We’re early on in the season and it doesn’t take much to move, but that is a hell of a swing.
While we’re still asking the real N.C. State to show itself, Vanderbilt has been more consistent in their identity. So far in the post Diego Pavia era, that identity being a consistent, humongous question mark.
Vandy kicked off its 2026 campaign scraping by FCS Austin Peay 28-9, and dodging disaster one week later by pulling away from Delaware late to a 35-26 win. In both cases, Vandy drastically underperformed compared to expectations, against respective spreads of 29.5 and 20.5.
It’s true that this isn’t the Vanderbilt of old. Clark Lea’s staff has done an excellent job of “moneyballing” and finding diamonds in the rough to compete in a league where they are completely outresourced.
But this isn’t the Vanderbilt of the last two years either. Diego Pavia ain’t walking through that door, and the transfer portal classes and big names that hit in a big way over the last couple of years are mostly gone.
This is an above average team that State can absolutely get on the road. An opportunity to right the ship and do something Dave Doeren has never done before: beat a Power 4 team in a neutral or road environment.
Vanderbilt’s Offense
Vanderbilt’s revitalized brand has been built around Diego Pavia and his Heisman-esque heroics. It’s not crazy to characterize him as the most valuable player in the sport last year.
With Pavia - and skill talent like Eli Stowers and Tre Richardson - gone, Vanderbilt is remaking their identity on this side of the ball.
The headliner for this group is 5 star true freshman Jared Curtis, a statement recruiting win for this program. Curtis was the number 2 overall recruit in the 2025 class, and it’s not hard to see why. At 6’3 230, he’s built like a tank with a cannon of an arm. He’s not an elite runner, but can absolutely scramble to make plays, or put his shoulder down and get an extra yard or two.
He was also in a legitimate quarterback battle with Blaze Berlowitz, a New Mexico State transfer, who looked absolutely dreadful to start the year. I believe there’s something to that being a competition, especially given the competition. Why not give him all of the reps in these games?
Curtis played against poor competition in high school, and while his future is incredibly bright, he’s pretty raw on tape with his decision making and comfortability.
He does have the ability to make plays like these:
Obviously, an impressive off script score. But this is Delaware, and in week one, it was Austin Peay. What does it look like when he makes his first start against another Power 4 level team?
A good running game is a quarterback’s best friend, and that’s what the Commodores are trying to kickstart. Vanderbilt returns a trio of backs, headlined by senior Sedrick Alexander, and so far this rotation has been...fine? Alexander has ~400 carries to his name as a fourth year player, with a career average of 4.2 yards per attempt. MK Young is another back with a ton of speed, and he’s made some big plays running between the tackles, but these are backs you’d put in the “good, not great” bucket.
This offensive line appears to be capable, but not extraordinary. Vanderbilt is going to continue to be very heavy in their personnel. You’ll see multiple tight ends on the field, a fullback, some iso plays and a lot of “running right at you.”
Coach Doeren this week emphasized that the nose position on State’s is completely up for grabs. This is ideally a week where you see someone seize that spot, because Vanderbilt is going to look to bully State at the point of attack.
If I’m looking for one stat for State’s defense, it’s average third down distance. Vanderbilt is 86th nationally in third down conversion rate this year against two low quality opponents. If Vanderbilt is consistently asking Curtis to make plays against DJ Eliot’s scheme that is very multiple and confusing in nature, then I like State’s chances to win consistently on this side of the ball.
This is the side of the ball I feel best about right now relative to expectations. I expect to leave Saturday feeling good overall about this unit.
Vanderbilt’s Defense
Vandy’s defensive formula is the exact approach that has given State’s quarterback room nightmares of late: muddy pictures, looks that change a ton after the snap, and movement designed to confuse signal callers. They walk their linebackers up onto the line of scrimmage frequently, bring secondary players on blitzes, and present non traditional looks like this one (tipped ball that led to an interception, btw:)
I tuned in for the Delaware game and it felt like announcer Cole Cubelic used the phrase “Cat Blitz” a hundred times in the first half. As mentioned, Vanderbilt loves to bring its secondary on blitzes, and while that means that there will be open zones on the field for C.J. to pick apart, it also means that he and the backs have to do a good job of knowing who to pick up, and when they’re outnumbered.
Vanderbilt’s defensive line is solid, but their back seven is where most of their playmakers live. CJ Heard (#8) will be the guy to watch flying around the screen; he’s second on the team in pressures (6) and sacks (2) as a Safety. They’re also very high on their linebacking corps of Nick Rinaldi and Bryan Longwell, who have combined for 12 quarterback pressures and 3 sacks already.
This is a defense to me that presents as a well coached unit, versus a star studded, freak-athlete laden side of the ball like you typically see in the SEC. With Clark Lea’s coaching background, though, this group is going to be in the right place at the right time for the most part
This is a unit that has been stout against the run so far, yielding just 2.7 yards per rush, but that’s against an FCS opponent and Delaware. State’s offensive line and it’s running game appear to be the strength of the offense, and this is where this game will be won or lost in my opinion.
We saw State lean into more pistol formation, and while Richmond’s tackling in these clips is comedic routine level, I really like State’s foundation if it involves pistol and wide zone moving forward - there’s so much you can do off of this that fits state’s strengths (boot, play action) and it keeps some uncertainty on where and what State is doing:
Delaware’s lead back, Jo Silver, averaged 6.8 yards per carry and 109 yards last Saturday. If Duke is averaging over 5 yards a touch, State’s going to be in good shape.
At the end of the day, though, this is where your 20+ start quarterback is going against a quarterback in his first. Ideally State is able to open rushing lanes consistently and put itself in “2nd and 5” a lot of the time, making C.J.’s life easier and giving Kurt Roper a lot of flexibility in what he can do.
I don’t think this is a defense State will score a ton on, and I do have concerns that we see flashes of Virginia here.
Much has been made on social media about State’s record against the SEC in the last ~50 years. I wanted to look at this coaching staff’s performance on the road against like competition in the modern era. I picked 2021 given it is post COVID and mainly in line with the portal and NIL craziness:
Vanderbilt will almost certainly fall in their power rating because of their remaining schedule, but this would be among the best wins State has had on the road against Power 4 competition in Dave Doeren’s tenure at N.C. State.
With that being said, this is without a doubt a game that N.C. State can win. With the advantages N.C. State has in experience at the quarterback position, this is one where you probably expect to win inside of the building.
I don’t think this version of Vanderbilt is very good, but I do have a ton of respect for Clark Lea and his defensive mind. He’s seen a lot of tape of how opposing defensive coordinators have made life difficult for State’s signal caller. I expect the offense to be more respectable than it was in Charlottesville, but I think this game comes down to who makes fewer mistakes, and Vanderbilt’s defensive personnel and approach will force some.
The next game is always the most important game - tongue in cheek - but this one is a big one.
We’re a month into the season, watching the Pack go into a similar environment that they saw in week 0, with a similar point spread. We saw how that went. State welcomes an in-state App State team next week, with Louisville on its heels...a win tomorrow would set up an immaculate vibe around the Carter over the next couple of weeks. A loss would feel like de ja vu all over again.
Are we making a big jump after the first month, or are we in the same position we were a few weeks ago? Are we going to break a decades old streak of futility against SEC competition, or is it more of the same?
I think the Pack breaks free probably 4 out of every 10 times this game is played, but I lean Vanderbilt this Saturday.
I’ve got this game as an ugly, 21-17 type win for the Commodores.