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2025 Week 8 Predictions - NC State @ Pitt: must-win territory
- Essad Malik
- Oct 24
- 6 min read
Do you remember that NC State still has a football team? It’s always tough coming off of a bye week when the previous game was a disappointing loss. Basketball season is (thankfully) quickly approaching, so it makes it even harder to hold space for football when it isn’t providing an enjoyable experience. It almost makes the team disappear from your memory.
Recap from Week 7 @ Notre Dame
As the old adage goes, if a game is broadcast on a streaming platform nobody has, or can easily watch, did it even happen? A general gripe with sports broadcasting in these modern times is that sports should be on regular TV and not gate-kept behind an additional paywall. I will stop yelling at clouds now.
NC State appeared in a football match in South Bend, Indiana. Players wearing NC State jerseys went onto the field in the presence of Football Jesus for a 60 minute sports ball contest, and then left said field. That is all the analysis needed for this game.
Most of my thoughts were captured in the post about Dave Doeren’s historical performance in power conference-level non-conference competition. Games against teams like Notre Dame are not must-wins, but provide measuring sticks for the trajectory of your program, and it always feels like his teams come up short.
Updated look at the team's predictions against their preseason picks week over week.
Schedule | ESPN Predicto-Bot | Alec Lower | Essad Malik | Trey Lower | Jackson Williford | Actual Results |
Week 1 (Thu, 8/28) vs ECU Preseason pick | 69.7% - 30.3% (W) | 37-24 (W) | 28-20 (W) | 24-20 (W) | 38-21 (W) | |
During season pick | 69.7% - 30.3% (W) | 37-24 (W) | 31-21 (W) | 24-20 (W) | 38-21 (W) | 24-17 (W) |
Week 2 (9/6) vs UVA (Non-Conference) | 64.2% - 35.8% (W) | 29-24 (W) | 27-19 (W) | 23-16 (W) | 31-24 (W) | |
During season pick | 48.6% - 51.4% (L) | 20-21 (L) | 27-24 (W) | 30-26 (W) | 27-24 (W) | 35-31 (W) |
Week 3 (Thu, 9/11) vs WtFU | 66.7% - 33.3% (W) | 33-7 (W) | 17-20 (L) | 35-20 (W) | 35-20 (W) | |
During season pick | 74.2% - 25.8% (W) | 38-17 (W) | 34-31 (W) | 31-28 (W) | 31-21 (W) | 34-24 (W) |
Week 4 (9/20) @ Duke | 37.3% - 62.7% (L) | 23-35 (L) | 13-37 (L) | 14-28 (L) | 21-28 (L) | |
During season pick | 50.3% - 49.7% (W) | 33-38 (L) | 27-35 (L) | 31-28 (W) | 27-30 (L) | 33-45 (L) |
Week 5 (9/27) vs VT | 37.3% - 62.7% (L) | 34-41 (L) | 27-24 (W) | 35-31 (W) | 28-24 (W) | |
During season pick | 64.9% - 35.1% (W) | 45-20 (W) | 37-27 (W) | 38-17 (W) | 38-27 (W) | 21-23 (L) |
Week 6 (10/4) vs Campbell | 99% - 1% (W) | 50-10 (W) | 42-17 (W) | 63-7 (W) | 45-14 (W) | |
During season pick | 98.9% - 1.1% (W) | 41-10 (W) | 37-17 (W) | 41-21 (W) | 56-10 (W) | |
Week 7 (10/11) @ ND | 9% - 91% (L) | 13-42 (L) | 10-37 (L) | 0-35 (L) | 14-38 (L) | |
During season pick | 7.7% - 92.3% (L) | 20-52 (L) | 24-45 (L) | 20-63 (L) | 21-48 (L) | 7-36 (L) |
Week 8 (10/25) @ Pitt | 46.8% - 53.2% (L) | 35-28 (W) | 24-28 (L) | 20-21 (L) | 31-35 (L) | |
During season pick | 32.7% - 67.3% (L) | 24-30 (L) | 23-33 (L) | 24-28 (L) | 27-34 (L) | |
Week 9 (11/1) vs GT | 42.2% - 57.8% (L) | 31-24 (W) | 23-21 (W) | 30-27 (W) | 30-31 (L) | |
Week 10 (11/15) @ Miami | 16.6% - 83.4% (L) | 42-45 (L) | 37-31 (W) | 21-45 (L) | 21-38 (L) | |
Week 11 (Fri, 11/21) vs FSU | 62% - 38% (W) | 23-20 (W) | 24-22 (W) | 28-17 (W) | 34-31 (W) | |
Week 12 (11/29) vs unc | 58% - 42% (W) | 84-2 (W) | 17-37 (L) | 93285 - -234 (W) (yes, that's a negative score) | 28-27 (W) | |
How well do these predictions add up for the season so far?
Actual Record to Date = 4-3 | ESPN Predicto-Bot | Alec Lower | Essad Malik | Trey Lower | Jackson Williford |
Preseason Predicted Record to Date | 4 - 3 | 4 - 3 | 4 - 3 | 5 - 2 | 5 - 2 |
Incorrect Picks | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
During Season Predicted Record to Date | 5 - 2 | 4 - 3 | 6 - 1 | 6 - 1 | 5 - 2 |
Incorrect Picks | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Predictions: Week 8 @ Pitt - 10/25/25
Speaking of must-win games, this upcoming game in the Ketchup Stadium is in that territory. This is the first time NC State has played there since Devin Leary’s elite comeback in 2020 and all-time back shoulder throw to Emezie for the win. It was the second best back shoulder throw he ever threw to Emezie, iykyk. If the 2025 Wolfpack have any hopes of making it to the Bad Boy Mowers (™) Pinstripe Bowl against the 13th place Big Ten team, then they have their work cut out for themselves. And that’s not an exaggeration, Nebraska finished 13th in the Big Ten last year and played in that bowl, and that’s now the best case scenario for NC State’s season. That should tell you what you need to know about where we’re at with NC State football.
After this week, NC State has to play back to back games against top 10 teams in Georgia Tech and Miami, followed by hosting complete wildcards in FSU and UNC. Even against those latter two teams, no wins are guaranteed. Currently sitting at 4 wins, NC State’s best path to a bowl is 7 wins, as just finishing 6-6 might not cut it, although it depends how many CFP bids the ACC gets. Given that, obviously the Pack’s best chance at 7 wins is against all non-ranked opponents. Which leads back to saying that this Saturday’s game at Pitt is a must-win.
The problem with that, however, is Pitt is pretty good this year, we think. The Panthers are 4th in the conference at 5-2 (3-1), with wins over Duquesne, Central Michigan, BC, FSU (then ranked 25th, hilariously) and Syracuse. FSU took them to the wire, but all other wins have been quite comfortable. On defense, this is a typically stingy Pat Narduzzi team, 3rd in the ACC in yards allowed per game (299 ypg). NC State’s offense is averaging 417 ypg, so something has to give. They only managed 233 yards against Notre Dame, so a no-show is definitely in them. A loss in this game drops NC State to the bottom quarter of the league, but a win would keep in the middle of the pack. A pivotal game, to say the least.
The key matchup will likely be Pitt’s offense, specifically the passing game, against NC State’s secondary. Pitt is 3rd in the conference in total passing yards and passing yards/game. Meanwhile, one of NC State’s favorite pastimes is to give up huge explosive plays, both on the ground and through the air. Unless seen otherwise, there is no reason to have confidence that the Wolfpack will be able to stop anyone at this point.
And now, on to our Week 8 predictions!
Name | Prediction | Comments |
ESPN Predicto-Bot | 32.7% - 67.3% (L) | Down from a 46.8% - 53.2% loss, but still a predicted loss all the same. |
Alec Lower | 24-30 (L) | I don't have a good feel for this one. State usually plays well in this scenario coming off a loss before a bye. Bailey has been good and bad this year. Mason Heinstschel is erratic. I have no idea what we're going to get. |
Essad Malik | 23-33 (L) | Vibes are negligible. Pitt has juice right now, and State has none. |
Trey Lower | 24-28 (L) | Same story, different verse. Defense, already being held together by glue, does enough to keep the team in the game, but the offense's recent lack of execution breaks the dam again. Need to see that change before I can pick a win. |
Jackson Williford | 27-34 (L) | I need to see it. I think State desparately needed this bye, and will show some improvement offensively, but we've yet to see a game where both sides play well. Winnable for sure. |
So, what do you think will happen this week? Let us know in the comments below, and respond in the poll with your pick!
Who do you think will win?
NC State Wolfpack
Pittsburgh Panthers
AI Image of the Week
The AI apparently has morals? I asked it to do the following: "Draw a picture of a panther is wearing a yellow hat, standing on its hind legs. It has tied up a young wolf pup with ropes and is pouring ketchup on the wolf’s head while the wolf cries. In 80s cartoon style."
AI responded, "I'm sorry — I can’t create or depict scenes showing harm, distress, or abuse (even in a cartoon form). If you’d like, I can make a funny, light-hearted cartoon rivalry scene instead"
Uhh, okay. What it gave is what I wanted to begin with...I bet that ketchup is Hunts brand. Anyway, here you go:
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