A Deep Dive into NC State's Defensive Issues

NC State's defense is currently allowing 6.1 yards per play, slotting them in at 101st nationally. The Pack's attempt to break in a new scheme quickly have not come easy, as it's allowed a lot of explosive plays. Truthfully, it hasn't been all bad, but the Virginia Tech put a hole in the parts of the defense that did appear to be good. So what's going on with all this?

Splitting these macro-level YPP stats up into pass and run, State is giving up 4.9 yards per carry, a poor number that puts them 106th in the country, and it’s allowing 7.2 yards per attempt in the pass game, good for 71st nationally. These numbers get really weird when you dig into them more. On a down-to-down basis over the whole season, State has been significantly better against the run. Prior to the Virginia Tech loss, this defense was actually in the top 20 nationally in success rate against the run. The following numbers are insane . . .

Through four games, NC State had allowed 498 yards on 118 carries, good for 4.2 yards per carry. 43% of those yards came on just 4 of those 118 carries. If you're ever looking for an example of outliers in data skewing conclusions from that data, this is it. This was a really strong run defense through four games. It was not a really strong run defense through five games. Nobody had run the ball consistently on this defense until Virginia Tech, which just ran straight through it, a bizarre, enigmatic turn that is kind of defining for this unit. There's not much to really analyze about that defensive performance. The missed tackles are the story.

State's big issues with the run game last season were really about fitting runs correctly. As State has switched to a quarters-based defense from Tony's Gibson predominantly post-closed structures, how it achieves gap integrity has had to change a lot too. The Pack has not had tremendous issues here. It's been relatively sound. It's just been a really bad tackling team. One of its four explosive runs prior to VT was a zone play that was stonewalled at the line, but three different guys failed to complete the tackle. Then came the VT game, which was groundbreaking in the art of missing tackles.

As mentioned, the light box run fits haven't been a huge component of the struggling unit, but it has created some challenges in the pass game. Opponents have torn the roof off of State's coverage by pulling down the run fit safety with play action. The issues really start with its attempts to play zone coverage, or zone match to use a more accurate term. This is a quarters-based defense, something very new to Raleigh after years of Tony Gibson’s cover 1/cover 3 scheme. This switch, combined with a tremendous amount of youth in the back end, has created the majority of the issues the defense has faced.

State’s zones need to have a little more field awareness and better route distribution. Generally speaking, zones want to play coverage high to low, because a 3-yard completion is better than 20-yard completion. Brilliant analysis there. Most zone-beating concepts are designed to influence levels of the zone in order to creating throwing windows at other levels via numbers advantages, and State has done a poor job of squeezing windows at the top of the zone, thus it’s allowed teams to hit the second and third level routes. 

We’re going to take a look at the Mills concept here. I’ve called this stop mills because OG mills uses a dig route, but I’ll be honest and say I made that up and it’s probably not the common lingo. It's also the same thing. ECU ran this in the second half and ripped off a monster completion. Wake and Duke both followed suit and both would have hit a bomb also if Duke didn’t drop the ball. It’s a good example of State’s route distribution struggles. 

Starting with the Duke example because they gave us the all-22, the intention behind the concept is simple. A mid-depth route with a deep post over the top is designed to put the safety in conflict. If the safety bites down on the mid-depth route, the QB should throw the post. If the safety sinks with it, the mid-depth route could come open. This concept is commonly run with a shallow cross as well, although it isn’t in the Duke example.

The key read here for Mensah is Ronnie Royal, the safety to the boundary. Royal as a quarters safety is operating on a 2-to-1 read. This means that if 2 is vertical, Royal covers him. If 2 is not vertical, Royal should help on 1. Let’s see how this plays out. 

First, this is a good play from Fordham, who has a curl/ flat responsibility. He gets two vertical releases on his side and the back releases the other way, so Fordham has no threat. He immediately finds work dropping to the stop route. Royal reads the stop route first because he’s 2-to-1, and he climbs to it as it settles. This leaves the corner, who has outside leverage, on an island with the post. You can see Mensah’s hands crack as soon as Royal climbs. That's what he's looking for here.

The safety needs to get more depth. You need to have a recognition of what’s happening here and gain depth to squeeze the post, especially with Fordham being able to seal off the underneath route. If he does, there is nowhere to go with the ball. The post is getting thrown every time if the safety is climbing. You can also see that the other safety is driving down while a post wins on the other side. At times, it looks like the roof of the coverage is too interested in collapsing on underneath routes and it allows stuff to get over its head. 

Here is the same exact play against ECU.

And here it is against Wake.

State is in quarters again here. JJ Johnson is in the run fit and gets sucked down by the pulling guard. The corner looks to be playing MEG so he's not going to gain depth off the sit route. Johnson sees what's happening but it's way too late to recover.

Another concept that has really hurt State is the sting route, which Wake and Duke have both used to generate explosives. A sting route is a crossing route that turns into a vertical at the end of the cross. The underneath part of the zone needs to turn and run with these routes as they break up. State has not done this. 

This is a pretty simple look at a sting concept here. JJ Johnson (16) has to turn and run with this, and he just doesn’t pick it up fast enough. 

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This one is a product of the quarters scheme and some struggles with it. JJ Johnson is in there as the boundary safety. He has a run responsibility and get pulled down by the play action. This is quarters MEG, so the corners are playing man. Johnson tries to recover to his zone and doesn't ID the sting route.

There’s also stuff like this, which is a little less complex. Just a blown assignment with two guys dropping to the same flat. Somebody did not get their responsibility correct. 

Quarters is a very popular base look for defenses because it works. Its weaknesses lie in the run fits most of the time because of the light boxes, but if you can manage that, you’re usually alright. State is managing that part pretty well, but it’s just struggling to execute in coverage. The Wake game was a perfect example of DJ Eliot making halftime adjustments. State struggling with everything above in the first half helped open Wake’s lead. In the second half, Eliot moved to more 1-high structures, which helped State simplify responsibilities and even the box counts. It shut down Demond Claiborne, and this was a good fit against Wake because the Deacs have poor quarterback play. 

Wake is in 12 personnel, meaning they have 2 TES. 5 linemen and 2 TEs makes 8 gaps. You'll note that State only has 7 players in the box because it's playing with 2 high safeties. This means it has to make up a gap somewhere. A lot of times that involves the safety coming down. That's what was giving State issues in the early part of this game.

Here in the second half, Wake is once again in 12 personnel (2 TEs), but State is in a 1-high look. It adds the other safety to the box, no longer has a deep coverage responsibility for the safety, and it's able to fit the run and keep its structures cleaner.

Unfortunately, this isn't a universal answer, as this team isn't a great man coverage team either, and it's having trouble with a lot of standard issue man beaters. Virginia and Duke picked it apart with mesh rail, probably the OG man beater in football.

All of this criticism of the secondary wouldn’t be fair if we allowed it to stand alone. State is not getting pressure on the quarterback, and its making the job of the coverage team that much harder. This is a defensive structure designed to generate pressure and confusion on the front, often without having to rush more than four. It hasn’t succeeded here yet. State is 110th in the country in sack percentage. 

This is critically relevant for things like the sting concept, which basically gets wiped out by pressure. Long-developing concepts need to be supported by great protection, which is why many designed shot plays are ran with 7-man protection. State's inability to get to the quarterback not only doesn't disrupt the process of the offense, but it opens up opportunities to really stretch and challenge the secondary.

State has a treasure trove of scheme pieces designed to get pressure. The scheme is not lacking. It lies more in the execution. The Pack's best two pass rushers are Cian Slone, and honestly Kenny Soares is probably the second one. Sabastian Harsh has a ton of potential with his excellent get-off and intriguing power. He should be able to execute a variety of moves like speed-to-power, hesitation bull rushes, and more. He put some good bull rush stuff on tape against VT, but he's a better run defender at this stage in his career. Across the whole team, the one-on-one win rate isn't super high.

This has flowed down into the schematic pass rush elements as well. State stunts a lot, and it's not getting home with a good portion of them Stunts require vertical push. A big part of any game from a defensive line is the vertical push to hold the offensive line. I've drawn below a very simply tex stunt to illustrate this point. 

The end stunts over the tackle, and the tackle has to get vertical in the gap and make it difficult for the offensive guard to come off of the double team and pick up the stunt. This is more the part that is lacking. If you create enough penetration, you can put the guard in a lose-lose situation where he can't come off the double or pick up the stunt without giving a lane to the quarterback. 

State has too many plays that look like this. 

State stunts Slone to the A gap. Travali Price is in at nose and will rush the opposite A gap. He is the stunt anchor. He does not generate any penetration, though, and the center can easily hand him off and pick up Slone because they've held the edge.

I did think the pass rush was a little better against Virginia Tech, although it was largely nullified by Drones’ escaping the pocket and the general ineptitude of the officiating crew that would stare directly at the most overt examples of holdings in the sports’ lengthy history and sit on their hands. But I digress. This is a perfect example. 

It's the same exact stunt as above. State is going to stunt Slone to the A gap and he's going to come through free. Play close attention to Travali Price, who is again anchoring the stunt in the opposite A gap. Price creates some penetration and it holds the center longer. The center ultimately has to come off the double to pick up Slone, but because Price couldn't be passed off, both Price and Slone come free. State needs more of this.

In the last two games, you've seen State committing more numbers to the pass rush to try and generate some pressures. It has not been able to win otherwise. There is a certainly not a lack of trying when it comes to solving the defensive problems. Development is unfortunately a big part of this with so many young players in the defensive backfield. State has to find a way to get more pressure on the quarterback and it needs its youth to go from crawl to walk to run in a hurry. We'll see what this unit has in store the rest of the way.