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When someone decides to become a fan of a college football team, they are putting their emotional wellbeing into the hands of others. It comes with the territory of fandom.
Highs and lows of all shapes and sizes are inevitable in a game played by teenagers and twenty year olds. There's no shortage of creativity in how these results come to be - that's what makes college sports special - but over time, it's obvious that all losses are not the same.
Some losses occur when the opponent has a talent edge. Defeats like these, to me, are tolerable. They happen to everyone, almost every year, regardless of NIL spending or facilities or program reputation. They're disappointing, but understandable.
A different type of loss is one where you are the better team - either outright, or on that day. But people that aren’t playing the game steer you into a loss. Refs can do this sometimes, but the vast majority of the time, it’s a member of the coaching staff. Or two. Or more.
These are the most painful defeats: when humans not playing in the 1.32 acres of grass press on the scales of competition and deliver a loss.
Like N.C. State's loss in the 2024 Military Bowl.
My disclaimer up front: I’m a fan trying to process and learn from what I’m seeing. I do not know everything. But I - alongside a bunch of folks that know a lot - do know that this team has not played to its ceiling with frequency this year. A significant portion of that blame can, and should be, assigned to this coaching staff.
An offensive staff that refuses to give the ball to its best players when it needs to the most. A defensive staff without a leader, whose interim DC just guided the team to 8.15 yards per play against an AAC team that couldn't score on *Charlotte.*
Yeah, losing to ECU flat out sucks. The question marks and holes now bored into the Pack's future are much more visceral. We've got real problems.
The worst thing about watching this offense: what we see on the field is far less effective than the talent contained in its parts.
When there's some level of confidence in the personnel you’re putting on the field, attention is turned to strategy. How those players are used.
Last night, there was no shortage of poor decisions. From memory, things that pissed me off with this offense:
Your first answer to KC leaving? Running two tight end personnel almost exclusively in the first quarter. A personnel grouping that has struggled all year.
Running into the middle 10 man box on 4th and 1 on State’s first drive, where you're outnumbered. Of course you aren't converting that.
Justin Joly not getting a target for the first 40 minutes of the game. Read that sentence again.
C.J Bailey running QB draw before Justin Joly got a target. State running wildcat in the red zone before Justin Joly got a target!
C.J. Bailey running the ball 9 times - yes, some of these are scrambles, and it's still too many
Hollywood not touching the ball in the entire 3rd quarter
And the granddaddy of them all:
State gets back-to-back picks on insane plays by Tamarcus Cooley. What a gift. Two opportunities in the final frame of the game to end it. A score and extra point puts you up eight.
State ran 9 plays on these two possessions. Hollywood picked up 23 yards on the first two plays. He didn’t touch the ball for the next seven plays.
On these 7 plays, State faced two third downs. They attempted a fourth down conversion. State’s best player. Who averaged 10.65 yards per touch. Didn’t get the ball.
Players over plays, man.
Hollywood has been the most effective tool in this offense’s toolkit to move the ball down the field, not just tonight, but for the entire second half of this season. In the biggest spot of the game, he didn't get a touch.
Of course the other players executing in these moments matters. Blocks could have been better executed, other runs could have been sharper; goodness, C.J. could have been much better last night. But it's on the staff to put the best guys in the best possible spots to execute, and that did not happen.
These issues are symptoms we’ve seen all year. Of an approach that doesn’t have an identity. Plays that are called seemingly at random, with promising concepts abandoned, and schemes not building off of each other. It’s a hodgepodge of headscratchers. For whatever reason, the Robert Anae era in Raleigh is flat out not working.
It would be foolish for me to assign all of the blame to one person. If Dave is the CEO - at certainly at fault here, too - then position coaches might be Vice Presidents or Directors. They are the ones typically tasked with determining personnel and substitutions. It’s all around bad, for sure.
At minimum, there needs to be a new offensive coordinator in Raleigh. Changes to who is overseeing the receivers and backs would be welcome, too.
Imagine working at a job where the second in command is doing a terrible job. You have every possible shred of evidence that their work is hampering your company’s goals. As a concerned stakeholder, you approach the CEO with your case.. You tell your story, highlight where things could be better. “Our people are so much better than this!” you plead. One decision can instantly improve how we work across the board.
The CEO tells you to get out of their office.
I really hope this isn’t what’s about to happen with Dave and his offensive coordinator.
“"Easy thing to do is to blame a play caller when there's 11 guys on the field needed to block, run, and catch. It's everyone fault. Always looking to see if we could've called better plays. It's easy to point the finger at that one guy."
A quote from his postgame press conference.
At the end of the day, everything falls at the feet of the CEO. Leadership, strategy, how individuals execute on day-in, day-out basis.
That is the opposite of what I want to be hearing right now. It's one quote, but it's a concerning one.
There has to be major changes moving forward.
On the other side of the ball, there's an entirely different issue.
Don’t get me wrong: yielding 326 rushing yards on 8.4 yards per attempt speaks to some coaching failures. Freddie Aughtry-Lindsey is a State guy through and through; Saturday night was not his night, and 2025 should not be his season as full time defensive coordinator in Raleigh. But these issues were present all year, even with Tony G in Raleigh, after he brought a defensive renaissance into Raleigh.
The issue also isn’t scheme. Let me be clear: this season’s results aren’t 3-3-5 related. State fielded a top 25 quality defense for 3 years in a row running it. When run with the level of talent we’ve seen in Raleigh over the last few years, it’s a flexible scheme that offers a difficult prep.
The problem here - glaringly so - is talent.
The front six on State’s roster has been, and continues to be, incredibly suspect. Outside of Davin Vann this year, State has not had 1) an above average pass rusher, or 2) someone who can go get you a game altering play. Where is the Pack this year without Davin Vann and his 6 forced fumbles?
Without Vann last night, State had just four TFLs and no sacks. Only 2.5 of those TFLs came from defenders in the front six.
Setting an edge was a challenge. They couldn’t pressure Houser with four or less. Tackling was a struggle; ECU amassed 126 rushing yards after contact. Linebackers were consistently washed out of plays against an incredibly average offensive line. Run fits are still a seemingly impossible task.
A microcosm of this story: late in the game, redshirt senior Devon Betty - who has been in Raleigh for five years, who finished with the fifth lowest PFF grade on the defense - was subbed out. In came Zane Williams, a true freshman, who finished with the second highest grade on the team (in just 15 snaps.)
There’s so many concerning elements in this statement that I don’t have the energy to touch right now, but it paints a clear picture: Hey! Something is wrong here!
If Saturday was a glimpse of how State is going to try and respond to the front six question, I hated the answer.
Sure, adding Cisse, Devan Boykin, and Caden Fordham (when healthy) will help next year. Brandon Cleveland is good at nose. State’s certainly not done addressing this side of the ball through the portal. And it goes without saying that these guys are working their asses off to get better, and sacrifice so much of their time and energy to play football for a team we ruthlessly support.
But the level of change required to get this group back to the N.C. State standard seems mighty - and likely unachievable in one offseason.
Can State go get a proven defensive coordinator to fix some of these issues? Perhaps bring in some known quantities to fix these holes? Whatever the combination, they have no choice but to change here, too.
This loss cuts deep. All of it together - how the Pack lost, who it was to, the reasons why - makes for a really nasty package.
This is also the prime window of time for emotional overreaction to an exhibition game with several key pieces out. Over rotating one’s stance around State’s program on one game would be unwise, and I certainly want to guard against that myself.
But it’s not one game, is it? It’s another data point in a season mired with coaching mistakes, close losses, and self-inflicted wounds. A data point that looks like some others across various seasons.
Saturday’s catastrophe serves as a floodlight on the foundation of State’s program, one that got some propping up after another last minute win against UNC.
Perhaps I’d feel better about the foundation of this house if State was facing just one issue: if you felt confident in your staff, but needed to plug a few holes on your roster, or vice versa. That isn’t the case.
We’re staring down the month of January. There has to be a sense of urgency in the Murphy Center to evolve.
On the coaching staff front, State should be an attractive job. Many future head coaches have come through Raleigh and worked with Dave. There’s a stacked cupboard of offensive talent, and while the defense needs improvement, there are solid pieces (see Tamarcus Cooley, Devon Marshall, Brandon Cleveland, etc.) that you can build around.
On the talent front, State’s got what it needs offensively. It needs to further develop C.J. Bailey and be less dumb in critical spots. Defensively, I imagine it’s going to be hard to sell high quality ends and backers on coming to Raleigh without a coach in place. Again, doubling down on the importance of moving quickly.
The 2025 American Football Coaches Association kicks off in Charlotte on January 12th. Dave has found coaching candidates here before - it’s where he got to know Drink really well - and I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s movement on or around this event. Anae’s contract is up at the end of February. We’ll know something soon.
I can’t stomach the idea of another ECU loss to start next year. Something has to change, because this program is so much better than this.
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