Cheat Sheet Preview: Wake Forest

NC State vs. Wake Forest

Location: "Some Random Bank" Stadium, Winston-Salem, NC

Kickoff time: 7:30 ET

Television Network: ESPN

Vegas Line: Pack -7

With Thursday being a short week, we've got a "cheat sheet" preview this week for Fake Worest.

I'd highly recommend starting here with our podcast episode this week - a quick UVA recap, a Wake preview, and an awesome Question of the Day.

Let's hit it!

Seeing the Forest for the Trees (not my best work)

Wake is a team that saw tremendous turnover this offseason. Dave Clawson retired, Washington State head coach Jake Dickert arrived in December, and had to immediately put together a new roster.

Last year's Wake game was frustrating for a litany of reasons. Grayson McCall's career-ending hit was effectively worth 10 points (and whatever non-tangible value you want to assign a team having to watch its captain getting knocked out cold.) Wake has gotten State of late in Winston - they're 9-3 in their last 12 home games.

But what Wake did in 2003 at home doesn't have any meaningful impact on who is suiting up for the Deacs tonight. So far, it's difficult to tell much of anything about Wake, because they have the following results:

• Week 1: Needing a missed field goal and extra point to beat Kennesaw State, 10-9

• Week 2: Beating a Western Carolina team 42-10. Hooray!

One of my favorite college football models from Kelley Ford CFB has Wake being about 2 points worse than preseason expectations so far this year - that same model has State being worse by .1 point. 🤷‍♂️

A quick reminder that Wake was bad last year. They went 4-8. Their coach retired. Their new coach had basically no time to assemble a team from the portal, and he still had to, bringing in 32 new transfer players to offset the 28 they lost. That's a lot of turnover, but maybe not the worst thing when your roster was not very good.

Speaking of not very good - let's take a look at Wake's offense!

Wake Offense Notes

This offense is Demond Claiborne. If there's no Demond Claiborne, there's no effectiveness. We know him well: the senior Running Back killed State last year with a season high 135 yards and two touchdowns.

He came out of the Kennesaw State game with bruised ribs, but is not on the ACC mandated injury report this week. He'll be good to go.

Crazy stat number one: Wake Forest's total rushing Expected Points Added through two games is -14.73. Demond Claiborne's rushing EPA is 11.8. Translation: without him, they are not very good.

Their quarterback Robby Ashford is probably a good person. That's what I've got for you as far as analysis goes on his ability as a quarterback. He's a sixth year quarterback who has never been the guy, and stat lines like this are probably why:

Wake's offensive stats this year - against Western Carolina and Kennesaw State, mind you - are pretty bad. State's been leaky on defense to date. Something's gotta give.

Ultimately I think State's defense wins on this side of the ball, but I fully expect Wake to hit a couple of big runs and score an explosive or two. Jake Dickert has made some weird comments about being "tactically aggressive" (ok) and I wouldn't be surprised to see Wake hit some trick plays, on special teams or offense.

State had four missed tackles against ECU, and then sixteen against UVA. I don't think they forgot how to tackle - I'm confident they'll miss a few wrap-ups and assignments here and there tonight, but I expect a better performance from this group.

Wake Defense Notes

It's difficult to tell anything from Wake's defense so far given that they have one of the weakest strength of schedules to date nationally.

Looking at this snapshot, you'd think they're great! (Ignore the State logo in this graphic, these are Wake's defensive stats:)

These numbers will look much different at end of year. I am confident that this isn't a great defense.

DB Ashaad Williams and Edge BJ Williams popped up on the injury report this week for Wake, listed as probable, but is interesting to note. Wake's highest rated defender per PFF - tackle Mateen Ibirogba - left last week's game, but is also listed as probable for Thursday night.

Wake's defensive front appears to be a strength of this group on film, but - say it with me! - that could be because of who they've played to date.

At the risk of making this entire section one giant redundancy: I don't have many fleshed out thoughts on this side of the ball, because I'm not going to take any conclusions from what Wake did against the number 158th and 197th rated teams in all of college football.

State's offense looked flat out special at times last week. If State can carry the same level of effectiveness with its run blocking, it'll be really good through the air and on the ground. Wake can't stop that.

Final Thoughts

Picking up where I left off in our introduction: State sits ~30 spots higher than Wake Forest in 247's talent composite rankings, an attempted measurement of the talent quality of each team based on portal and recruiting rankings.

I feel very confident in describing State as the team with the talent edge in this one, just like it was against ECU. As I wrote about after that result, the lesser team needed a ton of variance and help to stay in that one, and I believe the same logic applies here.

This is the Pack's first road game of the year, but away trips to Winston-Salem are...different. Look at this screenshot of the fans from 2023:

Granted, this was a late season matchup where Wake had solidified its stinkiness. But I'm not super worried about this being a hostile road environment for the Pack.

This is Wake's first taste against real competition, and State's played a rivalry game and a top 60 ACC foe already.

I think this is one where the score looks a lot closer than it is. Give me State, 31-21.

3-0 with another short trip to Duke on the horizon, and an extra two days to prep would be a phenomenal spot to occupy.