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I’m okay with a little stress on Saturdays. Some amount of adversity makes for entertaining football games - a little back and forth is helpful in keeping me engaged
That being said: the cortisol my brain has released watching N.C. State play football this year has to be off the charts.
Wasn’t Saturday a nice palette cleanser?
State never trailed. 59 points scored - the program record against an ACC opponent. 281 yards rushing on 7 yards a tote. 11.7 yards per passing attempt. That’s a fun Saturday in Carter-Finley.
There's stuff to nitpick, as one does when you've got a team that has missed its goals and is primarily leaning on a young core of talent.
But today I want to mostly get that list of stuff outta here. We only get 12 of these guaranteed a year. Saturday was a good reminder that it is in fact highly satisfying to watch your team march up and down the field at will on an opponent. It's even better when your guys are obviously having a ton of fun doing it!
In a season full of frustrating outcomes, State delivered a vintage "awesome Saturday at the Carter" kind of performance. It was good to be back.
Run Game Revival
I forgot what it’s like to watch N.C. State run the ball at will.
State’s sack adjusted rushing numbers Saturday: 38 attempts for 290 yards. 7.63 yards per carry. FIVE rushing touchdowns. Long runs of 94 and 52 yards.
The natural next question: where has this been? Seriously, what happened Saturday that hasn’t been happening so far this year?
No, the O-Line didn’t flip any type of switch. State’s offensive run blocking grade was their fourth highest of the season - you likely won't believe this, but State has the 30th best run blocking team grade in the country per PFF.
There weren’t any major schematic differences Saturday either. Of State’s 36 runs, 6 were gap based, 28 zone based, and 2 scrambles. State lived on inside and outside zone, and while the ratio of zone plays might be a bit higher than past games, that's not a sign of some strategic shift.
This Saturday was all about the backs: The Pack forced 24 missed tackles on Saturday.
For context, their previous high forced in a single game was 12 against Clemson, where they played against back ups most of the second half.
Is it really that simple? Yep. Take a look at what is now the second longest rush in N.C. State history:
If Waters gets tackled at the line of scrimmage, or in the second level, we’re not talking about this run ever again. But he doesn’t!
I think I’m paraphrasing Urban Meyer here - The offensive line can get you past the first level. Recruiting and talent is what gets you out of the second.
For the first time since 2021, State had two 100 yard backs. Jordan Waters looked like the guy State desperately wanted out of the portal, breaking 4 tackles on touchdown runs of 13 and 94 yards.
Hollywood is emerging as one of the most elusive backs in the country - 89 of his 100 yards came after contact on Saturday.
This offense needs balance in the worst way - they've been far more effective dropping back and passing - and while it is against Stanford, this is a welcome sign of growth.
More Growth From the Kid
CJB is growing up right in front of us. First, the numbers, which look exceptional:
18/20 for 3 TDs and 234 yards
average depth of target 9.4.
90.7 PFF Grade - 3rd best nationally this week, and good enough for PFF True Freshman of the Week
98.7 ESPN QBR (out of 100)
All of that is great, but if there's one thing you've taken away from my writing over the last couple of years, I hope it's the idea that numbers can tell whatever story you'd like them to tell. (Life principle, here.)
All of this looks good on paper, but it's more important that C.J. is growing week to week on film. Process > results.
He wasn't perfect on Saturday - no QB will be! - but we are seeing a stacking pile of evidence that he's growing.
Less than a month ago, running this smash flood concept, Bailey throws an uncatchable ball to a double covered receiver. He doesn't come off of his first read.
This week, Bailey comes off of that read and throws a first down conversion to Justin Joly, who does a nice job sitting in the middle of Stanford's zone. That's growth in less than a month.
This is why you can be excited about what you're seeing from Bailey. I've done well to not invoke this name in 2024, but this is far from an M.J. Morris situation - Bailey is light years ahead of where Morris was.
CJB had multiple big time throws, including a layered dart to Keenan Jackson for a first down, and a nice no look pass to Justin Joly for a touchdown (that he probably should have had earlier, to be fair.)
There are lots of things I love about watching Bailey play quarterback, but the joy he is bringing to this offense and this team is almost tangible from the stands. You can't quantify it in a box score or advanced data model, but it's obvious these dudes are having fun.
That fun trickles down to us as fans. It also gives me hope that we see this nucleus of young players stick together moving forward.
Defense Mostly Strong
The irony in State inducting Payton Wilson into its ring of honor as it was gashed for explosive runs on counter runs. Deep sigh.
Outside of that, though, the defense was mostly steady. They were on the field for 10 non-garbage time possessions, and yielded 21 points, with the final touchdown coming in the 4th against back ups. 2.1 points per drive you will take every day of the week.
The Pack’s 45% stop rate Saturday - the percentage of drives that end in a forced punt, turnover, or turnover on downs - was its best against P4 competition this year.
I thought State’s secondary held up well. The biggest passing play of the game was an NFL play from Stanford’s NFL caliber wide out in Elic Ayomanor. This is the guy that went for 13 catches and 295 yards against Travis Hunter and Colorado last year. Those plays happen, you tip your hat to the guy making the 5% probability play.
It was good to see Brandon Cisse back out there; he and Devon Marshall (who had another interception this week) project as a nasty 1-2 punch next year, and continue to show a willingness to come up and hit, which is good.
Davin Vann has seemingly emerged from hibernation. He now sits at #1 nationally in forced fumbles with 5, to go along with his 7 sacks. He is living up to the #1 jersey again.
On the flip side, State has to find better linebacker play. On the season, State’s 3 worst graded defensive starters are Kamal Bonner, Sean Brown, and Devon Betty. They continue to struggle fitting runs and playing in coverage. There are flashes with Bonner, who is still super young, and it’s worth soaking him in experience for the future.
The Aydan White regression continues to baffle me. He is on target to finish with his highest reception percentage and yards per reception allowed, and his worst career PFF grade. It certainly makes sense that not having the NFL dudes in front of you that you’ve had in 2022 and 2023 would cause your numbers to tick lower, but he looks like a different player on film altogether.
This side of the ball, to me, is less exciting to watch right now. Most of State's deficiencies here are well documented, and we haven't seen the week over week growth or improvement that we have from the offense.
Big Test Next
Two things are true in my mind about this win:
State showed tangible improvement in several areas that will translate moving forward
Stanford is one of the worst Power 4 teams in the country
Up next is Duke, who is 4-1 in one score games. Their offense is mostly bad, but their defense poses an interesting test for Mr. Bailey and this reinvigorated rushing attack.
They're second nationally in TFLs with 77 in 9 games. They're a top 15 defense in both Expected Points/Dropback and Success Rate against the pass.
This is a big test to see how much of State's growth over the last two games - and in particular, Bailey's - is signal vs. noise.
No need to worry about that right now, though. We have a few more days to soak in the butt-kicking that the Pack laid down on Saturday.
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