Gainey's First Roster is All About Fit

This feels like a pretty good first pass at roster building from Justin Gainey given his resources. State isn’t poor, but it isn’t backed by Money Inc. either. It’s in a position where strategic decision making in the portal has a lot of value, and the overvaluation of certain players can create short-term wins that lead to chronic problems. Shiny object syndrome can get you, but this staff was strategic. Whether or not the evaluations and intended uses were correct will be determined in the winter, but an obvious vision is a positive first sign for the inexperienced coach.

The thing I like the most is the absence of any real “grab talent, find fit later” acquisitions. There are lots of players worthy of this approach, but they’re all very expensive. “Fit” was the word of the day for Justin Gainey. State’s early portal pursuits made it clear there was a plan for which traits would be most valued and how the staff would look to manage the opportunity cost of those decisions. If State is going to put a premium on floor spacing, it will have to sacrifice elsewhere, and then it will have to answer the question of how it hides what it had to sacrifice. The decisions made here feel right.

Offense

The basketball equation is rim pressure + distribution + spacing = good offense. If you can add somebody who can be a threat to create a paint touch, score, and move the ball, and you can surround that player with shooting, you’re going to have a good offense. We saw what it looks like when you have all three of those things last year, and we saw what it looks like when you only really have one during Kevin Keatts’ last season. 

A lot of this equation will fall on Preston Edmead. He’s an impossibly entertaining jump shooter who also has decent burst off the dribble. He can get to the paint. A lot of State’s offense will probably hinge on his ability to find scoring inside the arc, whether that’s actually at the rim or more in his floater game. The hope is the floater is in there. Edmead shot just over 37% on away-from-the-rim twos last year, which is not good enough. If he can start making that at a higher rate and turn that into a shot defenses need to defend instead of a shot defenses want to force, that will make it harder for a drop big to just play goalie, and it will pump up the ways you can pay off an Edmead paint touch. 

That feels like the first bet, that the staff will be able to get a sophomore step from him in those areas, because his shooting will make an impact most nights. If it hits, the rest of the puzzle is really there on offense. State is likely to start three other guys that shoot 39% or better from three. Obviously, this will put a lot of stress on gap help from perimeter defenders. Beyond that, this cracks open a lot of opportunities for Gainey to use his clipboard. Expect to see more three-man ball screen coverages for Edmead ball screens (hedging, blitzing, at-the-level). These demand rotation, and rotation correlates heavily with three-point attempts. 

The beauty of having four high-end shooters with this kind of initiator is that it’s easier to use your spacing and your off-ball movement to take advantage of that need for rotation. Pick and roll from a spread alignment will force defenses to tag off of a shooter who shot 39% or better last year (provided they play that kind of defense).

It becomes harder for defenses to not just help, but to also fix mistakes. The value of confusion and tardiness from defensive rotations and recoveries goes way up. I'm expecting to see a lot of set-up actions and off-ball shooter movement to really challenge defensive rotations and recognition, as well as a lot of pace to attack defenses before they're set and able to get into their coverages.

Defense

State went heavy on offensive skill set, and the opportunity cost of that decision was athleticism and perimeter defense. This is not a particularly athletic, large, or twitchy basketball team on the perimeter. It will be losing off the dribble. Gainey has a great track record as a defensive coach, but he is not a biological engineer of basketball players. There is an athleticism delta here. 

This is why I expect State to keep the big around the paint, playing predominantly drop coverage. Kyle Evans essentially becomes a goalie for you with all advantage creation off the dribble funnelling to him. He’s a safety net. This is how UC Irvine played him as well. The advantages of that make sense. It gives you some insurance against attacking guards consistently winning matchups. It also cuts down on the amount of help State’s perimeter defenders have to offer, as this is not a particularly rangy group. 

The downsides are really that it puts a lot of pressure on Kyle Evans to effectively guard the ball while covering the roll and having the range to recover to pocket passes, lobs, etc. If he can execute there, it's a pretty good schematic choice. The other downside is that it makes you uniquely vulnerable to shooting bigs and elite mid-range scorers, two things that can beat you but over a large sample size are generally good bets to place. 

Gainey recently discussed his vision-consistent first roster and his lack of interest in getting the "best available" guys. This sounds a lot like fluffy coach speak, and I would call it that if I believed it actually was, but the threads with this group weave together pretty cleanly. There is still work to do. State is going to add the lite version of Kyle Evans at some point, and likely another flier at least. The core is in place, though, and Justin Gainey deserves some credit for deciding what was most important and being strategic about what was then not as attainable.