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This was one of the worst NC State football seasons I can remember, but sports are ultimately about moments. One of the beauties of college football, a dwindling trait, is the opportunity to create meaningful moments in an otherwise soul-crushing season. The regionality of the sport and the importance of regional supremacy creates chances for something memorable that otherwise would not exist for a 5-6 team.
I wouldn’t call it redemption. A five-point win over a garbage truck convention doesn’t change how you evaluate the season in any particularly significant way. I would just call it fun, and sports are supposed to be fun. We’ll eventually forget about State selling the Wake Forest game and the Georgia Tech game and the Duke game and the Syracuse game, but I’ll remember Noah Rogers catching that ball for a long time. What a fun moment.
There is a lot to break down from this, most of it fun. Join me as we go through the tape one last time for this regular season.
Hey you! Run Zone
This run game has been blowing up the last four weeks. You could see it building earlier in the year, but State continually lacked one piece of the puzzle, whether it was penetration from the back side killing front side development, a poor read from a back, or a safety making a tackle in space. Waters and Raphael have both upped their games in the back third of the season, and Hollywood Smothers has simply been excellent. The offensive line has been dominant, and not surprisingly, State is averaging 210 yards per game over the last four contests.
The context of that stat includes a game against Duke where Smothers only touched the ball five times and the team abandoned the ground game, only running for 84 yards. It ran for 281, 285, and 220 in the other three games. 210 yards per game would be 15th nationally over a whole season. Here are the YPC numbers for each back over the final four games.
Daylan Smothers: 6.7
Jordan Waters: 7.4
Kendrick Raphael: 6.6
Here's State running the heck out of some outside zone.
All five offensive linemen are winning here. Belton (74) is getting lateral push. The double of Carter (75) and Correll (56) works well and allows Carter to turn that linebacker toward the sideline and drive him. Correll gets off the double with good timing and then wrecks a second-level defender. Tim McKay (52) wins big securing the play side shoulder and getting a seal, and that's what actually opens the running lane. It's a comprehensive effort from the blocking. This is not a good run from Raphael. He's decisive behind the line but then does some weird stuff up the field. The blocking is elite, though. You could drive an Amtrak through that hole.
Here's another good outside zone play and a better run from Raphael.
This play is a little less obvious for the back because the line doesn't win immediately. Raphael actually has to maintain a track and threaten the edge, and he does a good job. The defensive end gets a stalemate with Peak (65), but he knows he can't allow himself to get sealed inside as he has to protect the edge. He's executing what's called a press and peak early in the play, and he's doing a pretty good job, but he plays outside to set an edge and Raphael cuts off that, piercing through the B gap. Also, look at Belton get upfield and hammer down on that linebacker.
Even in the small number of unproductive zone plays that State ran, it was getting 0-2 yards. It wasn’t losing three yards. State was much better at preventing any kind of penetration. The line didn’t always do well with really aggressive defensive linemen trying to shoot gaps, which is why an otherwise positive run blocking unit put some gross short-yardage tape out there. State minimized the negative plays on the ground, for which credit goes to both the line and the backs.
The biggest thing for me is the backs, just because it’s been such an up and down experiment this year. We’ve established that the line has been good both in run blocking and pass protection. I love what Smothers has brought. This guy is really your modern outside zone running back. He offers great cut speed and hits top speed quickly. Smaller, more explosive backs are cut out for this play, and Smothers showing some real skill set to go along with physical traits will get you pretty pumped up.
The fundamental idea with outside zone, which we just looked at above, is to put pressure on the edge of the defense and then cut back inside. It can hit on the edge, but it's fundamentally a cutback play. The speed of Smothers makes him really effective at threatening the edge of the defense, and his cut speed and explosion pays it off after he makes his decision. He's also good at outrunning penetration, which can help neutralize any back side protection issues.
State goes 'tackle over' here, meaning they align both tackles to the same side. You can see Smothers push laterally before he makes his cut. Belton (74) is getting movement but has not obviously won, but you can see the defensive end again is originally showing inside of Belton but is prepared to rip through and get outside. The pressure Smothers puts on the edge forces that action, Belton is able to win then and shove him outside, and a giant lane opens. That's the beauty of zone. The back makes you right. This is a great play from Anthony Belton and a great play from Smothers, and both get an assist from the other.
State actually expanded into some gap scheme concepts in this game, something it almost entirely did away with in the early parts of the season. GT counter bash read is one of Anae’s personal favorite plays, and it was the building block of State’s offensive renaissance with Brennan Armstrong last year. The Pack brought it back against UNC, and it actually worked.
The key here is the double team from the left guard and left tackle. Carter is able to turn that defensive tackle pretty easily, and it allows Belton to get upfield fast. This results in him picking off the linebacker that is supposed to fit one of the new gaps on the front side. Peak, who is the second puller, then has nobody to block and can get way up the field to the defensive back. Everything that happens here is downstream of the double team being able to split early. CJ Bailey isn't great at reading blocking leverage, but he doesn't have to do anything but run straight here.
Building from Zone
The answer to State’s quarterback question all year was to support CJ Bailey with a run game and build out from there. It just had to find that run game and not give up on it. Obviously, the best offensive performances were the games where State ran the ball well, but it’s also not a coincidence that Bailey himself was better when State became a run first team. He was 11/12 in the second half against UNC. He was 18/20 against Stanford. Efficiency came as a product of balance and support.
Anae put too much on this quarterback too fast. It became such a vertical offense against Syracuse and Cal, and there were bright spots, but more missed opportunities than a lot of people even realize. An endless stream of four verticals and HOSS concepts was never a winning formula except maybe against a Cal team prone to spontaneous combustion, a game where State's offense was still atrocious for three quarters.
It was really fun to see these answers finally come together. State scored on six of six drives in the second half, the last one being the game winner. When it comes to CJ Bailey, his two biggest critiques have been a willingness to stare at throws and not let the ball go and a lack of downfield accuracy. His deep ball left a lot to be desired this season, but oh man, he picked a heck of a time to throw a pass that was head and shoulders above anything he’s thrown all year. With the game on the line, the ball to Rogers was picture perfect, and it had to be.
Bailey has underthrown a lot of this stuff this year and has had a tendency to leave the one-on-one balls inside. If this ball is even just a little of either of those, it is intercepted and State loses. I cannot give Bailey enough credit for this throw. This was better than a dime. This was like an ancient roman coin worth $28.60. Holy moly.
Even as the big play to Rogers was just standard four verticals, State found success building from its run game and scheming openings that minimized the reads for Bailey. The Pack was just so much more effective at scheming in the second half.
You’ll recall that we talked about tackle over formation in the above Smothers run. State lines up in it here, runs mirrored dummy screens, and shoots Daniels right down the seam. Nobody ever picks him up. I'm not even sure if UNC realized he was eligible.
State also brought back the post/wheel concept with this variant. It was something they did a fair amount of early in the year and then got away from.
UNC played a lot of man coverage with match principles, and State takes advantage of a miscommunication here. State is hoping to freeze one of the linebackers with the guard pull and the fake screen, occupy the middle safety with the post route, and run Joly by his coverage man. Match principles can eliminate a lot of the rub issues with man coverage, but you have to communicate. The Pack catches UNC in a bust when 21 and the mike linebacker should exchange routes as Joly becomes the #2 and the original #2 now becomes the #3. They don’t, and you can see two guys run with Grimes on the post and nobody covers Joly at all. State sought an advantageous matchup and didn’t even need it. Joly was covered by air while you ended up with four guys covering Grimes on a dummy route.
State ran some simpler passing concepts in this game, especially when it wanted to stretch the field. This above concept is basically one read and a check down. These were the concepts that created explosive pass plays for State.
Post/Wheel
Wheel and then check down, 2 reads
Sail
Single side hi-lo read
Sluggo
Play action with a slant-and-go double move
China whip
China concept with underneath in-breakers ran as whip routes
4 Verticals
The china concept is a pretty common redzone concept for State and four verticals is four verticals, but the other stuff was designed to simplify. I liked that State simplified things for the young quarterback and used grab routes to deal with safeties as opposed to asking Bailey to read and move them when attacking the seams. It just makes things easier for a quarterback that has been inconsistent at best in these concepts. State ran zone, didn't ask its quarterback to be superman, and suddenly its offense was good.
Defense Plays Admirably
Defensively, State did enough. It took some punches from what I thought was a strong gameplan, but it managed alright. Part of the frustration with NC State’s offense this season can be explained best with the juxtaposition of its often directionless approach and UNC’s clearly displayed intent on offense. The bad guys weren’t necessarily great at what they were doing, but they knew exactly what they wanted to do.
UNC was going to offer up a heavy dose of gap scheme runs (UNC ran GT counter, GH counter, dart, and buck sweep in the first half alone) and build explosive opportunities off of play action and misdirection. State has been susceptible to the counter play all year. Omarion Hampton is phenomenal. This all makes a lot of sense, and given the difficulties of tackling Omarion Hampton, State getting through this game with just a single massive touchdown run was a win.
First things first, State only had one consequential bust in the run fits. This was of course the 80-yard touchdown.
The bust falls on Devon Betty (8). With State bumping the end to the C gap against 11 personnel, the fits are a bit different than with a normal tite front, but Betty is still starting the play with A gap responsibility. UNC runs dart, pulling one tackle, and both Betty and Vick (22) need to shift their responsibilities to match. Vick is in the right place. I'm not sure what Betty saw but he should be standing right where Hampton runs.
In general, it was pretty sound. I thought Bonner did a good job of reading and reacting. Gibson asks a lot of his outside linebackers and one of State’s checks when matched up with 11 personnel requires the linebacker to cross the formation quickly. Bonner has handled this better than some others guys. He did not tackle Hampton well, but not a lot of guys do. As a State fan, I hate how much I like Hampton. He’s a boss.
State had a lot of injuries in the secondary with Cisse getting cheap shotted out of the game and White already out. State was not good defensively, but you worry about assignments first when you have this team this year already having those problems and now you're introducing more youth. I thought they did fine.
State Claims Chapel Hill Again
State beating UNC will never get old. It's not a secret that I don't care for the University of North Carolina. It's not that it's never added anything good to the world or that everyone who goes there is bad or anything like that. It really comes from the way the institution has marketed itself and its athletics. The supercilious attitude of an administration that can’t drum up any support for its football program and also spent decades printing sham degrees while looking down its nose at every team that lost to them while fielding eligible players is a hard thing to look past. Internet banner ads that read “Kenan-Flagler MBA, the online MBA program you probably can’t get into” are obnoxious.
UNC is the worst, and there was no greater monument to its arrogance than hiring Mack Brown, a salesman first who came with plenty of flair and not much beyond it. UNC tried to build a football team on the back of branding that only exists because Michael Jordan played basketball there 45 years ago. It hired national title winning retirees, gave recruits Jordans, hired professional mouth (and not much else) Dre Bly, and went all-in on branding that wasn't even born from the football team. NC State tried to build a football program. Whether or not you think it succeeded in the Doeren era is your business, but objectively, there is a distinction in strategy. One of these schools tried to build a football program built on player development. The other tried to build one on player acquisition, and even as so many gawked at Mack’s huge recruiting wins, that team never actually won anything. It wrote a ton of checks it couldn’t cash and eventually wasted talent long enough for their marks to see through the grift. Then it was done.
Dave Doeren finished 4-2 against Mack Brown. He beat UNC from nine down with under two minutes left while playing with seven missing defensive starters, he beat UNC with a practice squad quarterback, he beat UNC with a quarterback playing with a busted rib cage, and he put forth his worst coaching effort of his whole career in 2024 and still beat UNC with a backup quarterback. I hate to break it to the Tar Heels, but the number beside your name on the scoreboard matters. The number beside your name on the 247 recruiting rankings does not. So it’s the same as it ever was, NC State winning at UNC. The Pack has lost twice in Chapel Hill since Chuck Amato fell 23-9 on November 18, 2006. It is 2024. NC State just won in Chapel Hill again, and it will forever be memorable that NC State so resoundingly closed the book on the most revealing era of UNC Football.
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