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We’re three games into the season, and it’s not great. State looked poor for a third straight week on Saturday, rallying for a 30-20 win over a seemingly terrible Louisiana Tech team. At this point, I’m just frankly stunned that State could continue to look this bad. The Pack trailed Louisiana Tech 17-6 at halftime, and it has now scored two first-half touchdowns through three games, both against Western Carolina.
This is the call-a-spade-a-spade portion of the article. That’s just nowhere close to good enough.
The Pack did find some juice in the second half, outscoring the Bulldogs 24-3 and doing pretty much everything better on both sides of the ball. It did this all with a backup quarterback, which led to a lot of discussion about the quarterback position. We’re going to talk about all of this, but first, the run game.
The offensive line was excellent in this game. It was easily its best game of the year. Pass protection was an afterthought for anyone watching. State’s line created a forcefield around the pocket most of the day. This was also the best run blocking game of the season. The Pack won at the point of attack more consistently that it had all year.
A lot of State’s offense has fallen flat so far. I think this group could get where we thought it would be. The first half against Western Carolina was not pretty, but State was close up front against Tennessee and it dominated an inferior team on Saturday like you expected to see against Western.
We also saw a different distribution of run plays. Counter was back on the menu, and it had some juice for the first time really all year. Diversity in the run game is a big part of what Anae did so well with State last year, and I would hate to see it just become a zone team because it couldn't run counter, so this was nice. We also saw read counter bash, the Anae staple for Brennan Armstrong.
The run game still lacked some luster, though. State has to get more broken tackles out of its backs. It got backs to one-on-ones on Saturday and none of them really made plays. These two pictures produced a combined total of four yards. That is big no bueno.
McCall Struggles Again
Grayson McCall is just not right. State appeared to make a concerted effort to be more explosive on offense, and it got some really good pictures, but McCall was not accurate enough. It’s important to view the offense’s intention through the concepts it runs and not the passes it actually throws, as that’s dependent on post-snap activity. State has not called a ton of designed shots for McCall to this point, but it did more of that in this game.
We talked extensively, like probably too much, about yankee and mills, two middle-of-the-field shot concepts McCall thrived in at Coastal. I would wager there was nobody in the country better at throwing these than McCall. Admittedly, it’s hard to see everything from the broadcast angle, but I’ve recorded four instances of Mills and zero instances of yankee to this point.
The four instances:
Against Western, State got man coverage, KC did not create a ton of separation, and then McCall overthrew the ball.
Against Tennessee, Anae inverted the concept to beat Tampa 2, hoping the post would carry the tampa hole player and the dig would be open. State got man coverage and then the ball was knocked down at the line.
Against Louisiana Tech, State got a good picture with cover 3 and the MOF safety coming down to the dig route. McCall overthrows the ball.
Against Louisiana Tech, it was a backside read for Bailey that he did not get to.
This play is number three on that list
This is a high difficulty throw. This is the kind of throw McCall was brought here to make. The picture is good, not perfect, but good enough. You can see the safety in the middle of the field too low to play the route. The ball is just overthrown.
I can’t believe he missed this.
McCall has a hitch from #1 and a slot fade from #2, almost like a shock concept without the stick route. He reads blitz because it’s obvious and lets it rip right away. He's hot here with six blitzers and only a five-man protection. It's all read correctly. KC wins easily and is wide open. The ball falls harmlessly to the turf out of his reach.
McCall has not been right on with his reads this year but he’s mostly been correct. There have been a few head scratchers, but the struggles have come from the accuracy front. He was correct on both of these plays and just threw a bad ball on both. This is like watching the yips. He has never been this inaccurate in his entire career. The whole thing is honestly kind of shocking. None of this is a product of a step up in competition, and I think that’s kind of a lazy explanation. Tennessee is one thing, sure, but he’s been off against Western Carolina and Louisiana Tech.
There wasn’t really much of an effort to give McCall easy throws to get comfortable. State came out swinging on offense this season, at least with regards to complexity. I agree with this approach 100%, you shouldn’t need this like you would for Bailey, but I wonder if there is more of an attempt to do this for McCall if he comes back, given the struggles.
CJ Bailey
We’re going to talk about CJ Bailey in depth, but I want to preface the whole thing with this. I have watched Bailey share snaps in the spring game and play one half of a game against Louisiana Tech. It’s hard to evaluate someone that there isn’t much tape on. So let the fact that we’re working with what we have here be an umbrella over the whole thing.
I thought Bailey looked like a talented freshman in this game, which is the least surprising thing ever. He’s talented, and he is a freshman. It was a good first effort and a nice glimpse into some of the natural ability of State’s quarterback of the future. There was bad to go with the good for sure, and we’re about to cover it all.
State tried to keep things pretty simple for Bailey and sprinkled in a few more complex concepts. His entry into the game brought State back to its screen game and to a focus on maximizing free access throws. It ran this little guy that probably has a more common name, but I’ve been calling it a bail RPO.
Bailey’s eyes are to the boundary corner at the snap, and if he bails out, Bailey pulls the ball and takes the free access throw. If he squats, Bailey hands it off and it’s a gap scheme run. One very simple read for a very simple throw, without having to get to other stuff if the picture isn’t what you want.
I thought State managed Bailey well. It ran several screens and spent a lot of time queuing up a screen-and-go, which it blew wide open for a big gain. Louisiana Tech was pretty undisciplined in zone coverage, and State was able to manufacture some huge windows for the young quarterback.
The good with Bailey
There were two plays that stood out in this game, the first being this smash concept he hit on in the fourth quarter.
First, I really like the play design here. Classic smash is a hitch from #1 and a corner route from #2. It’s a popular and effective enough concept that a lot of zone coverages have checks built in just for smash. For example, if the flat defender gets a hitch from #1, he can make a smash call and work backwards to squeeze the second level throw, then rally and tackle on the underneath throw.
State inverts this concept, running it with a flat route from the tight and the corner from #1, which is Noah Rogers. This may have prevented the flat defender from IDing this earlier, which further opens the window to Rogers. You can see the defender start to sink before Bailey throws the ball as he reads his eyes, but he’s far too late to impact the play.
Number 8 is the primary defender read here for Bailey. Smash is a hi-lo read, and when the defender sits on Joly in the flat, Bailey is over the top to Rogers. It’s a nice ball, facemask or higher to get it over the underneath defenders. Smash is not an overly difficult read. Once you ID the flat defender in the zone, it’s just a matter of reading his movement. Bailey does a nice job and it’s a nice ball.
Second is the pure progression concept on third down, where Bailey hits KC for a first down.
Louisiana Tech is showing a six-man pressure pre-snap. The progressions for Bailey are as follows
Raphael fast to the flat in what is called scat protection
The sixth blitzer picks him up on the release so Bailey moves on
Grimes on the curl in the slot
This is a zone route mostly. State is trying to conflict underneath zone defenders with this and the backside in-breakers. It’s man coverage, so Bailey is on from this
KC on the in breaker
KC wins against catch technique man coverage because that’s what the man does. Good ball and first down
Joly
Rogers
This throw to KC might be a bit late, but overall it’s a good job from Bailey. This was the only pure progression I charted from his stint in the game. He did well to move through those progressions. These kinds of in-breaker concepts like levels and dagger will be a strength for him and the current state of his arm talent. These aren't necessarily the hardest throws, but he's accurate on them.
The other part of this play is the protection. This pocket is Fort Knox. It’s a five-man rush and everybody wins so easily that Bailey could probably have gotten uber eats delivered before he had to throw the ball. Part of my concern with crowning Bailey after this game is how easy the pass protection made everything. The pocket is not going to look like this in Death Valley. Overall though, pretty good play by everyone involved.
The Bad with Bailey
Bailey had two turnover-worthy plays in his just-over-a-half of ball. This one was thankfully dropped, but it’s something that should not really be in play for the safety.
It’s cover 1 from the Bulldogs and a vertical concept from State. Bailey sees the drop to cover 1 from the two-high shell, so he works opposite the safety's roll. He goes back shoulder, something he did twice in this game. The first throw was not catchable. This one was, but Bailey is staring this down a bit too much. The safety in cover 1 is reading those eyes. He should not be able to impact a route on the boundary like this, but Bailey’s eyes give him a bead on the play, and he ends up dropping an interception.
This is Bailey’s first pick
This is something of a flood concept with a double post back side. The go route on the bottom is a clear out route against this coverage, meant to carry the boundary safety away from the play. The sit route from Waters and the crossing route from KC form a hi-lo opportunity on the underneath defender. You get what looks like a five-under cover 3, so the underneath is a little crowded.
This is not a good decision. My read on this is that Bailey threw it too early. The window for this was closer to the numbers than the seam. The throw is also not good. It’s so far behind KC that even if the hook/curl defender doesn’t touch it, it’s not getting caught, and the safety may have an outside shot at laying out for it.
This is my fear with freshman in general. Bailey made some nice throws in this game, but the pictures were largely excellent. This picture with the hook/curl defender is a little bit muddier. What happens when it doesn’t look exactly right? Do you get patience and a smart play? Do you get a force? Do you get the eyes coming down immediately? I don’t think you know yet.
On the whole, I thought it was a good first showing for Bailey. The biggest thing looking forward for him is developing more touch on the ball. An overused phrase in quarterback evaluation is “he can make all the throws.” I don’t think Bailey is there right now. Everything is a laser or laser-adjacent. He’ll have to develop the throws that allow him to layer the ball into zone coverage or drop it in on shot plays.
For Bailey, it’s in-breakers, hitches and curls, and some back shoulder stuff. That’s likely where he has the best chance to excel. I think this limits your ability to stretch the field. The 15ish-yard completions at the second level of the defense are on the table, but I’m not sure the accuracy and touch combination to throw beyond that is in his wheelhouse at the moment.
I have no idea on Grayson McCall’s health or State’s intention at quarterback. This is not going to be a popular take but I don’t think you can start Bailey in Death Valley if you don't have to. The windows are going to be smaller and close faster. The pocket is not going to look nearly as clean. The pictures are going to be more complex and Clemson will undoubtedly bring out the works to try and mess with him. The complexity of the game is something McCall will do better with, as you should infer from the many years between them. Sadly, I think State is going to get ran no matter who plays quarterback, but I have not seen anything to make me believe a kid that was in high school less than a year ago is ready for such a thing at this moment.
The distinction between McCall’s challenges and Bailey’s challenges is that you’re trying to resurrect a skill set in McCall that you’ve seen. You’re trying to develop this in Bailey, and as far as projecting the possibility of immediate success, one of those seems like a clear-cut better option to me. Bailey’s long-term prospects are exciting, and State is not playing well right now, but it still has not played an actual conference game. The only way you give the keys to Bailey here is if you truly think he’s your best chance to win a game in Death Valley. We'll see what happens, and if it is Bailey, I'll look forward to seeing how he handles such a threatening environment.
Defense
Defensively, State’s DBs need to tackle better. With the rise of the 3-3 and 4-2 fronts to combat spread offenses, teams have a much easier time getting defensive backs into run fits. Physical DBs like Tanner Ingle and Derrek Pitts were really good for State. The Pack needs more physicality and better tackling from the run support.
I want to shout out Corey Coley. State was down both its starting corners in this game, and hopefully Cisse is okay. We’ll see what Coley can do in coverage over the course of the year, but his physicality is desirable. This type of defensive back is something State benefits a lot from in its run defense. Coley had one bad run fit and one bad play in coverage, so it wasn't like a great game, but I like his physical style.
Caden Fordham was really good. He was more of an attacker in this game, creating penetration and havoc against the run. State inevitably saw some G/H counter from 12 personnel. We talked about the vulnerabilities of this defense to counter, and interestingly, State saw more GT counter in this game, something it generally handles pretty well. It had a lot more success handling counter in this game, as you may expect given the drastic drop in opponent quality and how much emphasis it probably put on it in practice.
Final Thoughts
Well, time to go to Death Valley.
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