Game Analysis: NC State Hits Shin on Coffee Table

There are about 800 different ways in which NC State could have avoided its ultimate fate in Saturday's 45-33 loss to Duke, but the Pack remained steadfast in its pursuit of self destruction. Duke is good, and it deserves credit for the plays it made, but it's not that good. This game dangled for a long time, and State never plucked it. 

In some ways, Saturday was the rent that was due from the Wake Forest win, which State was hoping not to pay. We had talked about how important it was to play cleaner after that game, because better teams were not going to deflate like the Deacs did. State extended drives for Wake and delivered special teams blunders, but overcame them. That was nice, but it was not sustainable. 

Saturday's script was similar, and the result was what you would expect when you ran that script against a better opponent. State, simply by making completely unforced errors, contributed as many as 20 possible points to the final difference. 

• Punt return unit jumps offside, leading to a change of hear for Manny Diaz.

  • Points added for Duke: 7

• Mass confusion results in an interception and 60-yard return at the end of the half

  • Points added for Duke: 7

  • Points lost: potentially 3

• Blown assignment leads to free runner on field goal block

  • Points lost: 3

I'm not going to go into the special teams situation because it's been covered extensively already. It was really really bad. 

State was also -4 in the turnover margin, which is horrible, but ironically only allowed 7 points off these giveaways (although it obviously also loses the potential results of those drives). This game was so winnable that State actually found itself in a position to overcome a significant negative in the turnover margin. -4 would usually lead to a blowout. 

While CJ Bailey was responsible for all four turnovers, I didn't find that to be indicative of his day. He was strong overall and made three or four really big time throws. The 4 verts ball to Anderson was a dime, and his recognition of man coverage pre-snap allowed him to get to that matchup immediately. He was not the reason the team lost. I do think he has a tendency to throw out breakers and in breakers behind the receiver. This caused his first interception and led to a 4th down that shouldn't have been. This is a clean up item.

State's run game popped again behind Smothers and Scott in outside and inside zone. Both backs were great. Jalen Grant in the run game is also playing at a higher level as the season has progressed. This thing was cooking. Teague Andersen was also good cutting on the backside of outside zone.

Unfortunately, the run game is afflicted with a mild case of overcreativity. Of all the things in this game that went wrong, the one that bothered me the most was the first-and-goal play call on the series where the field goal was blocked. 

State has ran a lot of Q counter, which has been a disaster most of the time. This, I believe, was the first instance of a G lead play for Bailey, which also went horribly. None of these plays are getting blocked well, as State's guards have been inconsistent as pullers. 

This is G lead. It's sort of a zone/gap combination, and you can see the zone blocking on the backside. Val Erickson (50) whiffs on the kick out block. Cody Hardy (44) looks like he meant to hit that guy, so I'm not sure if State meant to run this inside of the tight end or have the tight end arc to the second level. Anyway, it results in a loss.

This is, structurally, a pretty compelling play. It's a quick-hitting gap run that gives you a +1 count in the box. But no play is a good play if you can't execute it. The same point can be made about the bash read play that led to the fumble. State's kick outs on a lot of these plays have been poor, and many also ask Smothers to lead, which hasn't been a plus. Overall, I'm really pleased with the job Kurt Roper has done. I think the margins can be cleaned up though, and these games will be won and lost exactly there. 

Defensively, State is struggling to offer much resistance. It is totally unable to generate pass rush at all, and it really struggles to maintain integrity in its zone coverages. You can see how that results in a problem.  

State runs a lot of creepers, and they're not getting home. The linebackers involved in these are tipping their hands a lot, and it's too easy for the line to pick these things up. Eliot finally did create some pressure at the end of this game when it dialed up a couple blitzes, and maybe it does need to live there more. Only getting a half from each of Harsh and Slone also does not help. 

These sting concepts have killed State this year.

Johnson as the underneath zone here has to turn and run with this route. He's late. Wake got State with this and you knew immediately it wouldn't be the last time they saw a sting concept. Duke watched the tape. You'll also note that this is a fire zone pressure from State, and it generates about as much pressure as group nap time would have.

I'm actually still pretty optimistic about the trajectory of this season. Getting to Georgia Tech at 6-2 is very possible. This offense has the juice, and it's going to get better. You can see guys like Duke Scott starting to find themselves. State has the firepower to make teams sweat. The defense is going to give up points all season. That isn't likely to change. If you can stop giving things away on special teams though and just be cleaner assignment-wise on defense, that's enough to support the offense. These things are all theoretically doable. This one will sting, though, because State would have had a chance to position itself as the outside smoker in the ACC heading into the GT-FSU-UM stretch. Such is life.