Game Analysis: NC State Rallies Past Wake Forest

Hello to you, fan of a 3-0 college football team. NC State scored a win in its first road game of the season on Thursday, and CJ Bailey took advantage of an opportunity on the national stage to deliver the best game he’s ever played. NC State and Wake on a Thursday night has never not been weird, and this iteration of the experiment was as aggressively bizarre as any. There are some numbers from this one that nobody will ever make sense of. The only constant was State's offense, and that’s why it left Winston-Salem with a 10-point win. 

First, a quick film review of the first 7ish minutes. 

If the Pack was actively trying to lose the game, it probably would have offered a better start than what it actually put on the field. The ball had been snapped a total of two times, and State was down 7-0, had recorded a personal foul and a procedure penalty, and had dropped a pass. 

You are not faulted for thinking this was going to be a disaster at that point. 

But CJ Bailey and Hollywood Smothers provided, as did the offensive line. Bailey was excellent, standing comfortably in the pocket, getting deep into progressions and cleanly processing full-field reads, and even climbing the pocket! I was optimistic, but quarterback was still a concern for me in August. I hadn’t seen enough to expect this level of proficiency early in the season. You gotta hand it to the kid. He looks right. Also, Hollywood Smothers is the ACC’s best running back. 

This is mostly just going to be a CJ Bailey compilation, but before we get there, let’s talk about this defense. In the first half, State allowed 500 yards per play, per my unofficial and totally made-up statistics. It was ghastly, it was disorganized, and for the second time this year it allowed an explosive because it was running guys onto the field during the snap(???). 

In the second half, State turned into the 85 Bears and Robby Ashford remembered that he is not good. Wake’s well-oiled offense from the first 30 produced a single first down in the second half, and it came on the game’s final drive. Have you ever seen a matchup flip that dramatically?

85 Bears is obviously in jest, but the run defense has been solid enough through three games. It's fitting pretty well and when it tackles, it's shutting stuff down. Alleged superstar Demond Claiborne had 35 yards at 2.9 YPC. State did not allow a single explosive run. 

The weakness remains on the back end, and the first half will not be the last time it gets taken apart. Wake hit a bomb in the first quarter because State once again allowed its safety to get pulled down by the grab route in a Mills concept, the very same thing that ECU was able to do. But one of the questions we asked in the preseason was whether or not a more modernized defensive scheme built around the use of the creeper and the sim pressure could help State create a couple of backbreakers that would change the result of close games. 

Three games in and we got one, although this is not how I expected it to happen. 

State's got the man side of the protection overloaded with the Mike creeper. Ashford is hot if Sean Brown blitzes, because Wake is in scat protection. Without the RB, Wake is 2 on 3 to the right side. 

State runs the creeper with Brown and drops the boundary end. Wake opts to throw hot off of Brown instead of the end and Ashford actually reads this right, but then hilarity ensues. This touchdown may have changed the outcome of the game. Attributing this to the scheme might be a slight stretch because Ashford did read this correctly, but let me live, dang it. Free runner forces a hot throw and it doesn't go as planned.

The Bailey and Smothers show

It’s just so fun to watch a guy get better like this. Bailey truthfully didn’t look that different in the ECU game than he did as a freshman. He was throwing a better deep ball, but otherwise it looked similar. He has definitely uncovered something since, because he’s looked like a veteran quarterback in the last two games. 

Certainly, it’s an opportunistic environment against Virginia and Wake Forest. The Hoos had some juice on offense, but both these teams weren’t particularly formidable in coverage. Either way though, this quarterback getting through an entire progression on a Y cross play and then hitting the checkdown was pretty much unimaginable last year. He’s all over it now. 

Speaking of Y cross, Bailey has become very comfortable in this play, and Kurt Roper will need a new Y cross button after Thursday night. He broke this one. I'm proud of the Wolfpack for facing as much cover 3 as it did and not just spamming 4 verts. It truly is a new year for play calling. 

This is Y cross. 

This is a pure progression. 1 and 2 can be written many different ways in a playbook. Some might write that hi-lo as a single read, some may list them as progressions, and I've even see a playbook call the corner route an alert. It's the same thing in the end though. Read the smash concept (1&2), read the Y cross (3), read the backside dig (4), check it down (5).

Here's Bailey getting to the fourth read.

He could have had the flat here for about five yards. He didn't like it, comes to the cross, doesn't like it, then comes to the backside. The back to the flat has widened the flat defender and Bailey sees the void. This is a good job of playing within the structure and timing of the play. It's a first down.

Here he is getting to the fourth read again.

Here's Bailey getting all the way to the check down.

Frontside smash is a no-go. Looks like the hook defender does a good job recognizing the Y cross and coming back to it. Good on the quarterback for seeing that. That's an easy way to throw a pick. Backside dig route is an obvious no. Get to the check down. This is the process that good offense comes from, even though it amounts to a check down in this case. There is nothing here. He gets through the whole play, doesn't force anything, and ultimately hits the fifth option for about nine yards.

Of course, none of this is possible without the protection that allows the quarterback to get so deep in the progression. Pass protection always gets yelled about when it's bad and ignored when it's good. Such is the life of the offensive lineman. But this group is playing at a high level right now. CJ had roughly 1 epoch to throw the ball on several snaps. They're blocking well and Bailey is complementing them with good pocket movement. Football is a team game, and you saw of lot of play structure, QB execution, and pass pro come together in unison. I'm not sure what this next play is exactly but look at our boy climb the pocket here. He's come a long way in a short time.

This was a banger on the first drive.

Void attacker play here. Bailey reading off the hook defender. Look at where Rogers is when the hands crack for Bailey.

The level of anticipation here is excellent. Bailey made one or two throws like this last year that showed you the upside. This is beautiful.

The touchdown to Justin Joly was a processing play that he simply was not going to make last season. 

Wake is going to show Bailey double mugged linebackers here on 3rd and goal. As Bailey processes this look, he'll know that he's got a half-slide protection to the left and the back is in for protection. That means that the center will block one of the backers and the left tackle and left guard will each take a down linemen. On the right side, you're also 3 on 3, with the right tackle and right guard taking one and Smothers being responsible for the other mugged backer in the A gap. This means that if the second-level linebacker blitzes, Bailey is hot, meaning he is responsible for that linebacker. He needs to have a plan before the snap if that backer comes, ideally throwing into the void that is left by the pressure. The in-breaker from Joly is his hot read here, he is prepared for it, he sees it, and he delivers an accurate ball. This is pre-snap processing and post-snap comfort at work.

State is using more void attackers and vertical stretches this year. It's is tearing apart zone with hi-lo reads and structures designed to create and attack space at second level windows in the zone. Roper has called fewer horizontal safety stretchers like 4 verts and HOSS, especially after the ECU game. To dejargon this, State is attacking safeties opportunistically with situational shot reads (alerts) and it is doing less to directly attack the third level of the field. 

This is why Bailey's numbers aren't gaudy in these games, but he's been hyper efficient. Everything written here can be seen in this clip. 

This is a yankee concept, something Robert Anae never used and that I was asking for specifically, so shoutout to avid Trinity Road Times reader Kurt Roper I guess. These types of concepts try to stretch zone coverage vertically instead of horizontally like how State tried to attack cover 3 so much last season. With seven in protection, this is a designed shot call, and you can see Bailey read the middle safety and watch this deep post develop, even though you can't see it on the screen (it's definitely a post). State wants to pull the middle safety down with the over route and throw the post over his head. Evidently, it isn't there, because Bailey comes back to the over and then reads the hi-lo just like you would a sail concept. Another good play from the quarterback.

A lot was made of the relationship Bailey had with Roper after the veteran coach was promoted to OC. That does seem to be paying off. 

On the ground game side, things are happening. State is a bit inconsistent but Smothers can do a lot with a play that isn't perfect, even far from it. The offensive line last season was doing everything it could just for the backs (not Smothers) to kill the run game, so it's nice to see a back read things correctly and make the most out of every picture, good or bad. The run blocking keeps improving. Roper got into more outside zone in this game than the previous two, and the below play really stood out to me.

Kamen Smith and Jalen Grant were bad as run blockers against ECU. Look at the double team they're working here. Great stuff from Andersen as well. This play is ran toward the theoretically weaker side of the line and they are moving dudes over there. Smith has gotten better each game and Grant looks more comfortable.

Parting Thoughts

State is 2-0 in one-possession games and it's now 2-0 in games where it has trailed by 10. The resiliency is impressive, but it is also unsustainable. It's pretty awesome to be 3-0, and it presents a great opportunity to fix your issues without suffering from the consequences of them. If it can fix enough of them, the sky is the limit. If it can't, rent will eventually come due.

State can never start a game like this again, and it has to make some strides as a zone coverage team. The Pack is very bad there, and this defense is going to face Darian Mensah, Carson Beck, Tommy Castellanos, and many other guys who are better than Robby Ashford. State must improve here and it absolutely must close these games out better. 

To the latter point, it's not for lack of trying. State had one drive with the lead last night that was conservatively called. It's been pretty hard on the gas offensively, but that narrative persists because it's executed poorly with a late lead. The team is showing some juice right now, more than I admittedly thought it would have. The scores don't blow you away because it's been mistake prone, but there's juice. It's time to make sure it seizes the opportunities it is creating.