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Back(s) against the wall
It's been five years since I've seen State get punched in the mouth like it did last weekend.
The Clemson result sent shockwaves through the fanbase. Those shockwaves certainly reached the Wendell Murphy center.
There was no depth chart released this week, and Dave was...intentional in his word choice this week when speaking to the media:
"A lot of positions are being evaluated. A lot of people are being challenged. It's going to be a competitive week. There's going to be positions that are going to change."
"Guys have to understand the value and the honor that it is to be out there in the red and white."
"Reps are earned, not given. Guys aren't being given up on but they're being challenged."
It's clear this coaching staff will be searching for - and expecting - a spark to get this team back onto the path forseen at the beginning of the year.
And then there's NIU.
As State was warming up to face Tennessee in Charlotte, the Huskies were putting the finishing touches on a 16-14 stunner in South Bend. Their upset over #5 Notre Dame was the face of the David over Goliath upset we’ve come to expect in the early part of the college football calendar.
Northern Illinois climbed into the top 25 for the first time since 2013. Head man Thomas Hammock was all over the internet. There was playoff hype for a MAC program.
Then, off of a bye, in front of 18,000 fans, NIU was stunned at home. By Buffalo.
The point of this elegant word salad: State isn't the only team playing Saturday that desperately needs a win.
And while you might not like it, that is exactly the kind of opponent State needs to face this week.
NIU's Offense
Looking at this offense will remind you that this was the house that Dave Doeren once built.
NIU's identity is obvious. It’s going to run at you, test your defense’s eye discipline with motion and moves, and then use play action to hit a big play. They love to use eye candy and general funkiness to make defenders uncertain about what's coming.
From a personnel perspective, we have to start with Antario Brown. NIU's "1A" running back ran for 1,300 yards on 6.1 YPC last year.
Though slightly less efficient on the ground this year - 52 for 241 - he's this team's leading receiver. 7 catches for 193 yards? That works. To boot, he was a guy State recruited in the 2021 class.
Back 1B is a redshirt senior by the name of Gavin Williams. He's added another 163 yards on the ground this year and has played a lot of football. This 1-2 punch is going to test the Pack in all the ways today.
Quarterback Ethan Hampton is capable, but if his 3 game logs this year give you any indication, they are much more comfortable when leaning on the run vs. the pass:
4.8 yards per attempt against Buffalo is gross.
For a group hellbent on running the ball, their effectiveness isn't quite as high as you might think - they're 76th nationally in EPA per rush.
This is a tough offense that wants to stay on schedule. Against Notre Dame, the Huskies picked up five 3rd and short conversions that allowed them to keep drives alive and chew clock. When you couple that mentality with this offensive line not having yielded a sack so far this year, you have a recipe for an offense that can do just enough.
In many ways, this is a nightmare matchup for State's defense. Which is why I think it's the perfect matchup for State's defense.
We need to know if this team is going to take steps towards fixing its issues. NIU's philosophy will test State's communication. It'll test their ability to fit runs. Most importantly, it will require State to play with a speed we haven't seen across the board yet from this side of the ball.
Dave has basically telegraphed that we're seeing a bunch of changes on defense. You'll see some growing pains I'm sure, but will there be obvious improvement to go along with it?
The battle on this side of the ball will speak volumes around where the Pack can (or cannot) go for the rest of '24
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NIU's Defense
Quietly, NIU has put together one of the more efficient defenses in the country.
The Huskies won't blow you away with their physical traits, but they play with aggression and a love of hitting that screams MAC football.
This 4-2-5 defense is anchored by a defensive line that rotated heavily last year and brings back a lot of snaps. Their best DL has yet to play this year, though - Raishein Thomas led the country last year in tackles amongst defensive linemen. If #4 plays, that's a big boost.
Corner Javaughn Byrd has had a great start to the year, yielding only 2 catches for 12 yards. Their backers and other corner spots seem vulnerable, particularly in man coverage. You'll primarily see Cover 1 from this group, and they're going to put their corners on islands at times.
NIU has been really good so far at getting off the field on late downs (11th nationally.) If a team has kept a drive alive agains them, they're fine with that - the Huskies have done an exceptional job of preventing teams from getting high quality possessions. Teams are advancing the ball past NIU's 40 only 20.8% of the time, and they're only getting 1.77 points on those possessions.
Now, are those numbers inflated by playing Western Illinois, Buffalo, and forcing two Notre Dame turnovers in a low possession game? Sure.
But this defense is no slouch. C.J. Bailey and Co better come prepared.
Interestingly enough, the Huskies' defense has the opposite relationship with the run. While they were able to hold Notre Dame to 4.4 yards per carry, they rank 77th nationally in expected points/rush. They are not as effective against the ground game as you might think.
Most folks won't give this take an honest shot, but State's offensive line over the last couple of weeks has been improving significantly. Take a look at fellow TRT writer Alec Lower's post showing how that plays out - State's 5 core guys are consistent, and they're putting more and more good out there as the weeks progress.
I believe this is the week we start to see them take advantage. Jordan Waters looked much better last week, and Kendrick Raphael is beginning to come on strong as State's best back - he's already forced 9 missed tackles on 46 carries.
For more offensive and defensive context, here's how State matches up with Northern Illinois' advanced stat profile from CFBInsiders.com:
Prediction Time
To me, this game mirrors last year's Marshall contest in lots of ways. Down to the same uniform combos, oddly enough.
Earlier this week I was listening to Inside Pack Sports' interview with a NIU beat writer Eddie Carifio, who picked the Pack to lose at home. One of his main reasons was the idea that the Huskies thrive when nobody believes in them.
Sir, that's actually Dave Doeren's music.
Dave might be a lot of things, but he is damn good at getting his guys off the mat. 2020 in a COVID year after a wonky QB ride. 2022, down to his fourth string QB. Last year after a thrashing in Durham.
Styles make fights. Dave talked about needing to get back to its DNA this week - this program has been built to win fights like this one.
You're allowed to have doubts about the "11-1 guy" feeling confident in this spot, but this is different. Early season optimism involved a lot of projection. There's none here. We've seen this script play out multiple times.
I think NIU is a solid team. They certainly won't be intimidated by Carter-Finley. But there's some fools gold in their win against Notre Dame: winning the turnover margin 2-0, getting a Riley Leonard that wasn't fully healthy and equipped to throw, a missed tackle giving them an 83 yard touchdown play and 44% of their points.
Also - did you read the part where I talked about them losing to Buffalo at home?
State has its cracks. It also has the talent advantage, playing at home, with a coaching staff that is going to be unafraid in making changes to spark things up.
I can't pick against State in this spot. 28-21, Pack.
...but man, if they drop this one, things could get dark, fast.
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