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"Losses like that hurt more than blowouts.”
Couldn’t agree more with you, Dave.
Another painful, coin flip loss. Another incredible come back performance marred by costly mistakes both from the people playing the game, and the people coaching it.
Wake, Syracuse, Georgia Tech. Each contest unique, but with similar characteristics:
Self inflicted adversity - typically via turnovers
A heavy dose of flukiness
Getting down early in the game
Some form of furious, inspired comeback on the backs of big plays
Inexplicable collapse
Under Dave, State has normally been on the winning side of these tight games. Not the case this year. It hurts - I didn’t turn on the television to watch college football yesterday. It’s too much.
Bill Connelly's SP+ model put Georgia Tech's postgame win expectancy at 9%, and State's at 91%. State should have won this football game.
There are no moral victories in a sport that guarantees you just twelve games per year. State has a losing record through 11 of them.
It's as bad of an outcome as one could have imagined for this year.
The Year of Randomness?
The Grayson McCall hit swung the Wake Forest game. (State still had a chance to win, and should have won that one, of course.)
This week’s version of “WTF Wolfpack” was a jet sweep push pass that inexplicably ricocheted off KC’s hands, C.J.’s shoulder, and into the arms of a Georgia Tech defender who just happened to have his eyes and hands in the right place.
From Dave in his press conference:
“We probably run that play in practice a thousand times. I’ve never seen a ball ricochet-intercepted. Some of the breaks we had that way were tough.”
You could run that play another 5,000 times, and I’d be shocked to see that outcome recreated.
I think 2024 is being defined by these types of plays:
In the three aforementioned games, State's margin of loss was a combined 12 points. Gameonpaper quantified the impact of these four plays as 28.12 points in Expected Points Added. 9 points in the Wake game, ~11 against Cuse, and 8 against GT.
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I’m not implying that the other ~several hundred plays where State is not playing up to expectations don’t matter. Or that coaching doesn’t matter, or that simply flipping the outcome of these plays makes State 8-3.
The point here is that the margins in this sport are razor thin.
State has been on the receiving end of some serious cuts from that razor.
You’re Killing Me, Bob
It is not a secret that Robert Anae’s work this year has been poor.
If you’ve followed Trinity Road Times this year, particularly Alec’s work, you’ll know that there’s a lot to like about Bailey’s ceiling. He’s flashed and made some exceptional plays this year. He’s also made tremendous mistakes, and continues to show youth and freshmanness that is totally normal and natural for a guy adjusting to this level.
You might think Anae would want to help his guy out a bit, no?
I recorded this video before the Georgia Tech game was played, citing that one way this offense could help Bailey was with improved execution on first down runs. This offense has put too much on his plate on 3rd downs, and it's reared its head several times in ugly fashion this year.
Bob continued to ask C.J. to do it all for the Pack on Thursday. All night, State looked at defensive structures like this and continued to throw the football at them:
This is particularly frustrating coming off of a performance against Duke in which State rammed its head against Duke’s 7 and 8 man box counts repeatedly.
Nope. The Pack elected to drop back 38 times. State called only 20 true run plays.
For the second straight week, CJB struggled to read the field, often making one or two reads before tucking the ball and running, which ironically wound up being more effective than the passing game in totality. (And more effective than all of those called QB runs against Duke and Cal. sigh)
Look, State's run game hasn't been good this year. It hasn't been average. But when you see Georgia Tech conceding this much space in the middle of the field, and your true freshman quarterback is clearly showing a lack of confidence progressing through his reads, it's worth an honest try.
In fact, State’s running game was by far its most effective method of offense, and it’s best showing of the year considering spot and competition:
Some additional context for you: State’s rushing EPA/play this game was in the 99th percentile amongst D1 performances. That's about as good as it gets!
Defense Held Their Own. Until They Didn’t
N.C. State was a nine point underdog heading into Atlanta. On paper, Georgia Tech’s offense had been deadly running counter. This was not a match up that looked friendly for State.
And it didn’t matter for most of the game. State played its ass off on defense, particularly against the run. State limited Georgia Tech to 3.3 yards per carry on 36 carries. Star running back Jamal Haynes ran for 2.8 a carry.
More numbers on State’s impressive showing, per Game on Paper. GT’s offense mustered:
31% 3rd down success rate (24th percentile)
33% red zone success rate (31st percentile)
36% overall success rate (31st percentile)
The 30 points by Georgia Tech’s name here is certainly misleading. The Jackets scored 14 points on turnovers. Holding an offense that just put 28 on Miami to 16 is damn good. But of course, the inevitable “but.”
I keep going back to the pendulum analogy for this team because..I like it, for one. But, ironically enough, it’s the one thing that feels consistent about this team.
State’s offense hadn’t done much consistently until the end of the third quarter. It then ripped off 21 straight points to put the Pack in front by six. Alright defense, time to do your thi…!
90 seconds and 75 yards away from a win. Snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.
Listen, I’m a big Tony Gibson fan. State’s defense has been tremendous with him at the helm. As Alec does a great job of writing about here, though, the approach on this drive was horrendous. State didn’t challenge GT’s true freshman back up quarterback. The softness of this approach cost the Pack big time on this drive and he scrambled in chunks with ease.
This loss had nothing to do with “the 3-3-5 scheme being fraudulent.” This was about Tony Gibson making the same mistake he made earlier this year in playcalling, and it biting N.C. State again in a game it should have won.
I can live with a lack of execution from your players resulting in a loss. When the guys that aren't playing the game end up costing you a win, it flat out sucks.
Odd and Ends
This read on Davin Vann and his life story moved me to tears. He left the game with a head injury after taking a hit from Isaiah Crowell; here’s to hoping he’s healthy for UNC in his last game suiting up for the Pack. Also, a good reminder that the players we're watching and cheering for + criticizing are human beings.
What is targeting? The overturn on this is embarrassing, especially in the context of the calls State has and hasn’t gotten this year. Officiating needs accountability.
Kendrick Raphael has struggled during this middle segment of the season. He finished Thursday with 9 carries for 79 yards, his highest PFF grade of the year, and 28 yards after contact. He was more decisive, didn’t go down on first contact, and ran hard.
Bishop Fitzgerald had a rough first five games to start 2024. In his last six games, he’s allowed just 98 yards on 10/19 pass attempts with 2 interceptions.
Processing and Moving Forward
This has been the worst year of Dave's tenure. It looks like it's going to get worse before it gets better.
State will either beat UNC and make a "toilet bowl," or lose to another in state opponent - dropping to 0-3 on the year against this group - and finish with a losing record for the first time since Injurymageddon in 2019.
I certainly want to see State beat that team 11/10 days of the week. I also want the time to make changes necessary to win at a high level next year. That likely involves firing multiple offensive staffers, starting the search for their replacements, and needing time to work the transfer portal effectively.
State will certainly lose some big names in the transfer portal this year. With State's young core of talent on both sides of the ball, I think there's a world where the Pack can weather the storm and be much better next year with portal additions and some offensive staff changes.
Unfortunately, State's NIL funding will not be as healthy as it was last year. Folks are tired of the pay to win landscape, especially after this year's debacle. That certainly makes sense.
While State's funding takes some steps back, other programs are pouring money into football and NIL. I don't think that's good news for the short term success of this team.
I'm not sure how all of this shakes out, but the phrase "it can always get worse" rings around in my head.
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