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Kurt Roper and CJ Bailey: Film Analysis


NC State secured another year of CJ Bailey during college football's latest rendition of the silly season. With it, the Pack will get the continuity that it obviously and rightfully values, and that includes Kurt Roper working with the quarterback. Roper has been working with Bailey for two years, with the latter being as the offensive coordinator. I liked a lot of the ways Roper managed his quarterback. Below, I've put together a list of 11 plays that were common and/or interesting from this year, along with some evaluation of Bailey in those plays. This list and its categories is far from exhaustive, so please don't think this is the whole offense. Let's get into it.


Pure Progressions 


One big change going from Robert Anae to Kurt Roper is the use of the pure progression concept. This helped Bailey, who hasn’t always been good or looked comfortable with coverage disguises and ambiguous process. You hear a lot about progressions in football, and it’s an overused term to be honest. Every pass play does not contain a true progression. There are a lot of different ways you can build concepts, with plenty of grey area between the different categories. When we say pure progression, we’re saying that every receiver has a number to their read and the quarterback will read the play in that order regardless of the coverage look (with exceptions for pressure). 


Anae didn’t really do a ton of this stuff. He put a lot of weight on his freshman quarterback’s processing, an objectively bad and unfair decision that got him fired. Roper ran a ton of it, and the beauty is that it’s less dependent on getting your presnap reads correct because the quarterback is starting in the same place regardless. State ran the absolute heck out of three of these concepts, which are detailed below. 


Bailey generally read through these plays pretty well. He distributed the ball efficiently and did well eliminating progressions that weren't there, especially early in the year. This was the passing game’s home base.  Let’s look at a few examples. The progression is labeled on each play, A stands for alert, and CD stands for checkdown.


Smash Drive was State's most-called pass play of the season. It ran this from various formations depending on its scout of the defense. It was super versatile and always read across the field (left-to-right in the drawing below). Against zone, Bailey can read the depth of the flat defender and throw the smash concept on the left, or come back to 3 and 4, which also creates a high-low read while playing out like a flood concept. Against man, Bailey can just read it on order, and State would often try to create rubs from the formational alignment if it was expecting man coverage (see: Notre Dame). Either way, he starts at number one, so he'll never be on the wrong place at the snap.



Easy example of the pure progression. This is the smash drive play. You can cover 1 from UVA. First is the back to the flat. Bailey doesn't like the angle the back has. Second is the corner route behind it. Bailey doesn't like the outside leverage of the corner. Third is the drag route. The switch release between 3 and 4 creates a pick that clears the route, and Bailey hits the wide open guy. Not a high difficulty play but a clean, methodically processed read.
Easy example of the pure progression. This is the smash drive play. You can cover 1 from UVA. First is the back to the flat. Bailey doesn't like the angle the back has. Second is the corner route behind it. Bailey doesn't like the outside leverage of the corner. Third is the drag route. The switch release between 3 and 4 creates a pick that clears the route, and Bailey hits the wide open guy. Not a high difficulty play but a clean, methodically processed read.
Another example. This is the smash flood play. Wake is in cover 3. First read is the hitch at the bottom of the screen. Flat defender widening cancels that. Second is the corner route behind it, which is deleted by cover 3 because it's being ran right to the corner. Third is the cross from the slot. That's not there because it carries the hook defender across the field. That opens the window for the fourth read, which Bailey threads in as the flat defender widens with the back. Again, not a highlight play, but methodical and well done.
Another example. This is the smash flood play. Wake is in cover 3. First read is the hitch at the bottom of the screen. Flat defender widening cancels that. Second is the corner route behind it, which is deleted by cover 3 because it's being ran right to the corner. Third is the cross from the slot. That's not there because it carries the hook defender across the field. That opens the window for the fourth read, which Bailey threads in as the flat defender widens with the back. Again, not a highlight play, but methodical and well done.
This was the last play against Virginia Tech, where State brought out its Y cross play. Note the quick out, the cross, and the backside dig (which you can't really see). The ball could have been slightly wider, but I take no issue with the decision here to not progress to 2.
This was the last play against Virginia Tech, where State brought out its Y cross play. Note the quick out, the cross, and the backside dig (which you can't really see). The ball could have been slightly wider, but I take no issue with the decision here to not progress to 2.

These types of plays were efficient for State as universal winners against any coverage. They are technically full-field reads, but they are easy full-field reads to get through. There's little ambiguity presnap, and I think this quarterback benefits from such a thing. They're also relatively quick, and we frequently saw CJ get to 3 and 4 in these plays.


The effectiveness of these specific concepts declined over the course of the season, and you ended up seeing them a little less over the final four games. State hurt Virginia with these and then systemically disassembled Wake Forest. It used these plays a lot against Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, and Pittsburgh, but to less avail.


Single-Side Concepts


Cutting the field in half, getting your quarterback outside the pocket, and giving him a simple look where he can easily run if it's not there is a good way to build comfort. One of the staples that State would run is the single-side flood play with the boot action. Basically every team in football carries some version of this play. It was one of Bailey's best. As far as routes go, the comeback is one of his best throws, and he hit that repeatedly this year in this concept.

State runs a split flow play action to the boundary and then runs the flood concept to the field. This play can create a high-low read for the quarterback against a zone with a backside cross to work to as the third option. Bailey loves the comeback route on this play, and has hit it several times.
State runs a split flow play action to the boundary and then runs the flood concept to the field. This play can create a high-low read for the quarterback against a zone with a backside cross to work to as the third option. Bailey loves the comeback route on this play, and has hit it several times.

The screen-n-go is also something every team carries and is a natural complement to the screen game. Justin Joly has ran the bluff route like 50 times in the last two years. It's a cheap way to try and steal an explosive and it's a very simple play for the quarterback, who essentially has two reads.

Hoffman fakes the block and releases up the field while the dummy screen runs. It's a simple read. I think the throw is a hair late but it works out.
Hoffman fakes the block and releases up the field while the dummy screen runs. It's a simple read. I think the throw is a hair late but it works out.


Horizontal Safety Stretchers


State saw a slight decline in the usage of these from a year ago. This where plays like 4 verts, post/wheel concepts, and HOSS plays live. This is where a lot of your downfield passing comes from. They're designed to conflict safeties at the top of the defense, and they're super versatile concepts that can be effective almost anything, but they put more weight on coverage ID from the quarterback. These are the types of plays I most want to see Bailey improve in.



Here's all go special. This was probably CJ's worst throw of the year. Notre Dame shows something resembling quarters before the snap, but actually plays an inverted Tampa 2 structure, which you can see with the two-high zone and the linebacker in the middle working vertically. With the quarters look and the press to the weak side, I would venture a guess that Bailey thought he might get some kind of poach look, which would create a 1v1 to the boundary. He doesn't get that and comes back to Joly. The pole runner (linebacker working vertically in the middle) attaches to the second route on the three receiver side. The window is there to layer this ball, but he's late to the throw. The throw itself is weird and wonky too, which leads to the interception. Personally, I care more about being late, because that's displayed more consistently across the whole season.
Here's all go special. This was probably CJ's worst throw of the year. Notre Dame shows something resembling quarters before the snap, but actually plays an inverted Tampa 2 structure, which you can see with the two-high zone and the linebacker in the middle working vertically. With the quarters look and the press to the weak side, I would venture a guess that Bailey thought he might get some kind of poach look, which would create a 1v1 to the boundary. He doesn't get that and comes back to Joly. The pole runner (linebacker working vertically in the middle) attaches to the second route on the three receiver side. The window is there to layer this ball, but he's late to the throw. The throw itself is weird and wonky too, which leads to the interception. Personally, I care more about being late, because that's displayed more consistently across the whole season.
Florida State plays a cover 2 disguise here called 2-roll, where it shows one high safety but then rotates to cover 2 after the snap. Cover 2 keeps the corners in the flats, which negates the stutter-and-go components of the outside routes. I suspect Bailey thinks he's getting cover 3 here because of the single safety and the zone eyes of both corners.
Florida State plays a cover 2 disguise here called 2-roll, where it shows one high safety but then rotates to cover 2 after the snap. Cover 2 keeps the corners in the flats, which negates the stutter-and-go components of the outside routes. I suspect Bailey thinks he's getting cover 3 here because of the single safety and the zone eyes of both corners.
The scheme does not help CJ here as he ends up having to account for an extra rusher without an obvious hot read to do so, but still not a good job of keying the width of the boundary safety.
The scheme does not help CJ here as he ends up having to account for an extra rusher without an obvious hot read to do so, but still not a good job of keying the width of the boundary safety.

You start to see the value of the pure progression stuff when teams have had success with disguises. Defenses have gotten increasingly good at this kind of thing. All 3 plays above feature some type of disguise. The below one does as well.

This is fantastic. Georgia Tech rotates to cover 3 from the 2-high shell. Bailey reads the rotation and layers the ball into the seam. He's reading the horizontal movement of that middle safety. I do not know exactly how State teaches that, but he does a good job of keying the width and not being late with the throw. This is one of the higher end throws of the season.
This is fantastic. Georgia Tech rotates to cover 3 from the 2-high shell. Bailey reads the rotation and layers the ball into the seam. He's reading the horizontal movement of that middle safety. I do not know exactly how State teaches that, but he does a good job of keying the width and not being late with the throw. This is one of the higher end throws of the season.

The big ask for Bailey next year is to be able to push the ball down the field more and offer more throws like the one above, where he identified a coverage rotation and layered an anticipation throw into the void. These types of window throws require anticipation and decisiveness. This where I think CJ can improve the most.


Double Moves


One of the things I liked about Kurt Roper's first season is how he built plays off other plays, a pretty elementary philosophy that was still a welcome sight. State would take some of the passing concepts above and tag double moves to some of the quick routes within them. You


This below is actually a wrinkle on the Y cross play at the top of the article. Roper had a double move for almost all of the quick routes that were part of these progression concepts he would run.

Note that you still get the cross and the dig on the backside, but the speed out turns into an out-and-up and Joly clears the defender. The clearout route turns into a post for spacing reasons. Bailey has to hit these at a higher rate. He leaves this one long.
Note that you still get the cross and the dig on the backside, but the speed out turns into an out-and-up and Joly clears the defender. The clearout route turns into a post for spacing reasons. Bailey has to hit these at a higher rate. He leaves this one long.

This is a very popular split-field read play called snag lion. It's called that because the left side of the play is a zone-beating quick game concept popularly called snag, and the right side of the play is a double slant or two quick in breakers, commonly called a lion concept. It's a split-field coverage read because the quarterback is picking a side based on the coverage. Below, you can see the snag lion play side-by-side with the version that features a double move on the man side.



This ends up working out even though State doesn't get the coverage look it would have wanted to run this. It's another cover 2 disguise from Florida State, but the field safety doesn't gain enough width on his roll to affect this route.
This ends up working out even though State doesn't get the coverage look it would have wanted to run this. It's another cover 2 disguise from Florida State, but the field safety doesn't gain enough width on his roll to affect this route.

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