Men's Basketball: Is a Predicted 8th Place Finish Justified?

Basketball is back baby! The Wolfpack men officially open the season on Monday night against the University of South Carolina Upstate at the newly renamed Lenovo Center, and the Women open the season officially on November 5th against ETSU. The men also played South Carolina in a secret scrimmage last week. According to sources, they lost but they also played without Michael O’Connell, Dennis Parker Jr. and Marcus Hill. In this article, I am going to focus on the men, and I will focus on the women in a separate article.

The Pack is picked to finish 8th in the ACC preseason poll, and what I want to explore is whether this ranking is fair. There is an excitement after last season and the unbelievable run to the final four which saved Kevin Keatts' job. The dominoes fell in just the right way, and you couldn't have scripted it any better. Last season breathed a new life into many fan's excitement towards the program. Apathy had become the common sentiment for many and that is understandable considering a 37 year ACC Championship drought. The success of last March has changed the trajectory of this team in my opinion, mostly in good ways. So what about the preseason predicted 8th-place finish? I'm going to play the devils advocate and present both sides of the issue.

Reasons Why It's Fair

If you look at Kevin Keatts's record since coming to NC State, it is certainly fair. Prior to last season, Keatts teams had only made the NCAA tournament 2 times, and both times the result was a loss. His teams have consistently finished middle of the pack, with the exception of the one disastrous last place finish. Many people feel like the Wolfpack doesn't get the respect that they deserve, and sometimes that is true, but the proof is in the pudding as they say. Keatts teams have finished 3rd, 6th twice, 8th, 10th, and 16th. If you look at those results realistically, it isn't hard to understand the skepticism. Basketball is a results-driven game, and that is what fans (and the media) remember. Keep in mind, that Kevin Keatts had never won an NCAA tournament game before last season, and most believe he was on the brink of losing his job. To his credit, he turned it around and found that magic that took the Wolfpack to the final four, but the team finished 10th in the ACC regular season. Many believe that we should be ranked higher, myself included, but I certainly understand where the media got their justification.

Another reason that it's fair is because of player turnover. The Wolfpack lost a ton of experience, and they lost DJ Burns. That alone is a huge void to fill, but they also lost DJ Horne and Casey Morsell. We all know what Burns meant to the Wolfpack offense, and DJ Horne was the leading scorer. Casey Morsell was their best on-ball defender, and he was also a leader. That is a lot of production to have to replace, and a lot of senior leadership. There were 8 new guys on last year's roster, and there are 8 new guys on this year's roster. It takes some time for teams to develop chemistry, and we saw that last year. I knew there was talent on last year's squad, but it took a while to show just how much. Let us also not forget that we lost Mo Diarra who was extremely important to this team. So when you look at it from that angle, 8th doesn't seem that far off.

A third reason that I think it's fair is simply because it is the ACC. It's a very competitive conference, and you have the usual suspects at the top of the heap. We know what we are going to get from Duke and UNC as much as it hurts to say. It's hard to win in the ACC, and that coupled with the reasons above makes 8th seem justified.

Why It’s Not Justified

I think 8th is too low, and I have several arguments as to why. First of all, this team returns a solid core of talented players in Michael O’Connell, Ben Middlebrooks, Jayden Taylor, and Breon Pass. All of these guys contributed to the success of the tournament runs. Michael O’Connell is a true point guard who takes care of the basketball and sees the floor very well. He became a vocal leader on this team and he took his game to another level. He is only going to get better this year. He and Ben Middlebrooks have a really good connection on the pick and roll. Speaking of Ben Middlebrooks, he became a force to be reckoned with last season. He plays hard, rebounds well, and he isn't afraid to take the ball to the basket. He is going to contribute a lot this season. Jayden Taylor has the potential to have a really big year. He is an excellent defensive player and he can score. Hopefully he will have a big year from behind the arc. Breon Pass is a senior who has seen limited playing time, but he was outstanding in the ACC and NCAA tournaments when he was called upon. Sources also say he played very well in the secret scrimmage last week. I think his minutes will increase this year. I should also mention Dennis Parker Jr. Who returns after an impressive freshman season. This is a solid core to build around.

Secondly, I believe the talent that was brought in via the transfer portal is much better than people think it is. Brandon Huntley-Hatfield and Mike James are both Louisville transfers who are both really good players in their own right, and then throw in Marcus Hill, Dontrez Styles, and Ismeal Diouf, and this is a really talented basketball team. There are also three promising freshmen in Paul McNeil, Trey Parker, and Bryce Heard. If this team gels quickly, and I believe it will, they should finish much better than 8th. There is too much talent to finish that low.

Another reason that I think 8th is too low is that I think Wake Forest, Clemson, and Virginia are overrated. Wake has some talent, but it seems like every year they don't play to their potential. Clemson is solid, but I don't think they have the talent to finish in the top of the ACC this year. And then there is Virginia. The sudden resignation of Tony Bennett is certainly going to have a negative effect on the program. NC State can compete with anyone in the ACC, and they have learned how to win. There is a confidence within the program now, and that goes a long way.

A final reason I don't think it's justified is because of Kevin Keatts. He learned how to win last year, and if he coaches even a quarter as good as he did in the tournament, then good things are going to happen for this basketball team. Coaching Is a learning process, and I think Keatts has learned quite a bit during his tenure. I think he can become one of the better coaches in the conference if he isn't already. Everything has to come together to be successful at this level, and I think it has for NC State Basketball. Respect is earned, and another good season will go a long way towards getting the respect that is deserved.