NC State Basketball Quad Wins Tracker - 1/15/26

The quad tracker returns this week with an unfortunate update. NC State’s lone Quad 1 win became a Quad 2, as Boise State dropped out of the top 50, slipping all the way to 86 in the NET. The Broncos are now closer to falling out of the top 100 than they are going back into the top 50. This would be a precipitous and potentially disastrous slip for NC State’s resume, where a Q1 win could become merely a Q3. 

The good news is that Texas has been trending up. That loss now counts as Q1 for NC State, making them 0-5 in that area.

As a reminder, here are the quad definitions:

Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75.

Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135.

Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240.

Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353.

Since the last update, NC State picked up two wins on the road against ACC opponents for the first time since 2021. Road wins used to be few and far between, we were literally just celebrating them with ice cream as of a year ago. Now we're wondering whether the Wolfpack won by "enough", as opposed to being happy with winning at all. This is a marked evolution and I'm here for it. NC State beat BC 79-71, and FSU 113-69. The Wolfpack’s NET rating would have been helped more if the margin of victory was 10 or more against BC, as opposed to “only” being 8 points. We’ll definitely take the win as opposed to the other option of having a quad 3 loss. That being said, Will Wade knows how to bend the metrics to work in his favor. 

Speaking of margin of victory, it’s evolved over time to avoid intentionally running up the score against inferior teams…sort of. But when Wade had the opportunity to put FSU into the dirt and keep shoveling, he took it. The NET ranking measures overall performance (among other factors) through net efficiency by subtracting defensive output from offensive output to show the difference in points scored per possession between you and your opponent. 

The quad ranking of the opponent is taken into account in giving you a higher bonus for having a high net efficiency win. You get less credit for a 44 point win vs FSU if they were Q4, but the Seminoles (ranked 132 in the NET) are actually still a Q2 win due to it being on the road for NC State. This means, yes, run the score up as best you can, while limiting their output. It was good that NC State kept up the defensive pressure throughout the game and closed with such a wide margin. FSU is borderline booty cheeks as a team, but the Wolfpack can still take advantage and count them in the quality win column. 

There are now 14 games left in the regular season. This week off between games has given a rare quasi-bye week, and it’s conveniently placed at the halfway point of the calendar. As discussed last time, NC State can’t afford to slip up with the lower tier teams. But, there’s only one of those remaining, and it’s their next opponent as Georgia Tech comes to town. The Yellow Jackets are the LAST opponent left on the schedule listed outside of Quad 1 or 2.

That leaves a lot of opportunities for both quality wins but also risk of a slide. And with this NC State team, we’re still not 100% confident of what we’re getting from a consistent game to game basis. Taking care of business against GT will allow them to finish with 0 bad losses, assuming none of the current Quad 2 teams slide into Q3. 

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With the loss of the lone Q1 win, I thought it best to expand the Quad Tracker to include all the non-conference games. 

Even with potentially finishing 12-6 in conference, a final record of 21-10 would likely be just good enough to make the right side of the bubble. It would help NC State to notch at least 3-4 Q1 wins. As mentioned last week, a 12-6 ACC record is conjecture for what would allow NC State to finish somewhere between 4-7 in the league.

TLDR: 12 ACC wins = Goal. We're projecting one possible path to get there while adding quality wins:

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Before we go, let's compare NC State's current NET and quads record against the rest of the ACC:

(Through Games Jan. 14 2026. Reference: ncaa.com)

Side note, Duke's resume is wild stuff. They have played arguably the hardest schedule in the country and gone nearly flawless. They are likely in line for a #1 seed. But for NC State, sitting at 5th in the ACC and 29th in the NET is a perfect position for this point in the season. The one glaring hole is obviously that goose egg in the Quad 1 column. If they can notch a few of the ones noted in the table above, then they could be looking at a seed with a number <8, which would be phenomenal in Will Wade's first year.