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NC State Basketball Quad Wins Tracker - 2/21/26 - Wolfpack climbing the mountain

WELCOME BACK TO THE NC STATE MEN'S BASKETBALL QUAD TRACKER EXTRAORDINAIRE!


How was everyone's week? Anything exciting happen? Good vibes all around the Lenovo Center Tuesday night.


Our last update was after the Quad 1 debacle/trave-sham-ockery loss @ Louisville, as NC State ended its six ACC winning streak in dramatically terrible fashion. They've since played two additional ACC games:


  • vs Miami, Q2 loss, 77-76

  • vs UNC, Q1 win*, 82-58

  • * = sike, there's no asterisk, we're drinking all the tears of Tarheel fans that are complaining that this game somehow "doesn't count" just because they were down a few players. What happened to next man up mentality? Isn't that what happened when your so-called "real rival" won the ACC last year despite being down two of their top guys? Guess it only works one way. Too bad, so sad. Roy Williams never cared to let up on the Wolfpack when they were down and he'd come in and destroy them by 40. So I take no pity in them now, and hope they come back to full strength for the rematch in the ACC tournament and we can beat them yet again.




The loss to Miami was extremely frustrating. The last minute of the game saw a comfortable slip away, not disimilar from the final stretch of the SMU game. The Pack were able to pull that one out, but you can play with fire only so many times. An ending like SMU had a good defensive play by Tre Holloman, but ultimately there's a luck factor involved. So when you're counting on luck to win, it will flip the other way on you as it did against the Canes. This is not a good trait for a team looking to make a postseason run, but that's a problem for another day.


Beating UNC felt like climbing up a mountain while watching them slide down. NC State is now tied for 4th in the league standings, while UNC has slid to being tied for sixth.


As with last week, the bid for the NCAA tournament is ALMOST locked into place, they just have to finish these last four games at .500. If they had just beaten the Hurricanse, things would be nearly sewn up. But the win over the Heels was a gift of a Quad 1 win over a top 20 team.


My predictions for the final six games include my ill-timed flip flop on the previous two games:


  • Miami: originally predicted as a loss -> then I switched it to a win thinking the team had figured their stuff out. I should have kept my original gut feeling.

  • #16 UNC: originally predicted as a win -> then I switched it to a loss thinking the team hadn't yet figured their stuff out. I should have kept my original gut feeling.

  • #14 UVA: originally predicted as a win -> then moved to a loss, now keeping it as a loss

  • Notre Dame: win, no change

  • #3 Duke: loss, no change

  • Stanford: win, no change


Now with four games left, basically swapping Miami and UNC keeps the pace for finishing with the totally made up threshold of 12 wins I created. The Wolfpack just have to finish 2-2.


A final record of 21-10 (12-6) ought to be good enough, but it’s still bubble-icious territory creating a feeling of unease until Selection Sunday. In the predicted finish above, the Pack will have likely done just enough to be on the right side of the bubble, and likely with a seed in the top half of the bracket (8 seed or better).


Bracketology


Speaking of seeds, let's go over where the internet prognosticates the Wolfpack to land come Selection Sunday:


ESPN (shudders): 7 seed

Bart Torvik: 8 seed

Bracketville: 8 seed


There seems to be a lot of consensus for where NC State will land. The Atheletic buckets team as Locks, Should Be In, In The Mix, and On The Fringe. They have the following ACC teams listed as Locks: Duke, Louisville, UNC, and UVA. NC State is currently listed as Should Be In.


I don't disagree with this assessment. A Lock is a team that can lose all remaining games and still make the tournament. NC State can't do that, as confirmed by most estimates. This is where UNC has separated themselves. They're slotted as a seed higher than NC State right now, but they have had more top end wins in the non-conference, along with beating Duke. The Wolfpack did not take care of business when the opportunity presented itself in the first half of the season, unfortunately. We knew that they could make up ground in ACC play, but this goes to show you that there's only so much ground you can make up. Despite possibly finishing above UNC in the conference standings, the Heels will likely finish with a better seed. If you want to have a seed with a number <6, you can't be losing big games in the non-con. Remember that for the future.


Quad Tracker Update


The only shift in quads for a previous opponent was Georgia Tech. As previously predicted, the yellow bugs kept sliding right on out of the top 160 (currently 171). This is now legitimately a BAD loss, and will be held against NC State. Here is the quad tracker update:



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