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NC State Basketball Quad Wins Tracker - 3/06/26 - Wolfpack in the danger zone
- Essad Malik
- Mar 6
- 4 min read
WELCOME BACK TO THE NC STATE MEN'S BASKETBALL QUAD TRACKER EXTRAORDINAIRE!
After the good vibes of the win over UNC, the vibes have gone in the tank recently. The Wolfpack have now lost 5 of their last 6 games.
Our last update was after the Quad 1 win over shorthanded UNC. The Pack have since played three additional ACC games:
@ UVA, Q1 loss, 90-61
@ Notre Dame, Q2 loss, 96-90
vs Duke, Q1 loss, 93-64
The loss to Notre Dame was the frustrating loss of the week, adding to the list of frustrating losses for this season. If you could get back 3 games: Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, and Kansas, the season feels a lot different. But tha't not how it works. The last couple minutes of the game saw yet another lead slip away, not disimilar from the final stretch of the SMU and Miami games. This trend is a feature, unfortunately.
The GT loss, specifically, goes down as one of the worst losses for State in recent years. Tech is the single worst team in the ACC, last in the conference standings. They have the following records:
Overall: 11-19
Conference: 2-15
On the road: 1-8
Q1: 1-9
Q2: 0-6
Q3: 0-3
Q4: 10-1
Their only other conference win is against BC, which is the 2nd to last team in the ACC. They beat NC State in Raleigh on January 17th, AND HAVE NOT WON A SINGLE GAME SINCE (0-11)!!! They finish their season @ Clemson tomorrow to see if they can complete the reverse sweep. I mean, this year's NC State has been so generous in gifting other players with career nights, they might as well give the last place team a gift of their lone quality win of the year.
After beating UNC, NC State was tied for 4th in the league standings, while UNC had slid to being tied for sixth. Since then, the Heels have adjusted to life without Caleb Wilson and secured the double bye in the ACC Tournament as the 4-seed. As of today, the Wolfpack are looking at the 7-seed. This is how thin the margins are when the league is this good. Two games could make all the difference. With 12 wins right now instead of 10, NC State would be tied for 4th, and would own the tiebreaker over UNC.
As with the last few posts, the bid for the NCAA tournament is ALMOST locked into place, they just have not been able to fully seal the deal.
Now with just one game left, NC State needs to beat Q2 Stanford just in order to come up one game short of the totally made up threshold of 12 wins I created.
With a win, the Wolfpack would be looking at a final record of 20-11 (11-7). This ought to be good enough, but it’s still bubble-icious territory creating a feeling of unease until Selection Sunday. In the predicted finish above, the Pack will have likely done just enough to be on the right side of the bubble, and likely with a seed in the 8-10 range.
In the end, I have to pat myself on the back. I had predicted 12 wins would be the goal mark to secure a comfortable bid, and that ended up being true. Send me money, and I will give you lottery ticket predictions.
My goal with this number was never to "just make the tournament". My dream next step is for NC State to take the next step, and work towards being "comfortably in", where you're playing for seeding, not for your tournament life. The elusive double bye, which NC State has never gotten during this era of the ACC, remains just out of grasp. And yet, it was within reach this year. I have confidence Will Wade will do what it takes to grab a hold of it in the coming years.
Bracketology
NC State's NET ranking has slid 10 spots down to 34th. Definitely not the direction you want to be going in this time of year. Let's go over where the internet prognosticates the Wolfpack to land come Selection Sunday:
Bart Torvik: 8 seed -> 9-seed
Bracket Matrix: 8 seed -> 9-seed
Bracketville: 8 seed -> 10-seed
There seems to be a lot of consensus for where NC State will land. The Atheletic buckets team as Locks, Should Be In, In The Mix, and On The Fringe. They have the following ACC teams listed as Locks: Clemson, Duke, Louisville, Miami, UNC, and UVA. NC State was listed as "Should Be In" prior to the recent slide. Now the Pack are merely "In the Mix".
I don't disagree with this assessment. Remember, a Lock is a team that can lose all remaining games and still make the tournament. NC State hasn't been in a position to do that for weeks, as confirmed by most estimates. At the same time, if it's all the same I'd prefer a 10-seed over a 9-seed. Being in that 8/9-game is no-man's land, where your only gift for winning is almost assuredly playing a #1-seed in round 2.
That being said, NC State should feel confident, but is still in Danger Zone when it comes to the NCAA tournament. If they lose to Stanford, oh boy, hold on to your butts.
Quad Tracker Update
The only shift in quads for a previous opponent was Georgia Tech.
Syracuse drops from a Q2 win to Q3.
FSU and Miami both upgraded from Q2 games to Q1's. That makes the loss to the Canes sting that much more, a missed opportunity for a high quality win vs a team that is now the surprise team in the league this year. The Hurricanes have secured the 3-seed in the conference tournament.
Here is the quad tracker update:
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