NC State's Defense Enters Adjustment Mode

NC State is now part of a small group that has traveled to Hawaii and not enjoyed itself. The Pack's pass at the Maui Invitational was less pleasant than expected, and while these aren't catastrophic developments or panic button moments, they did expand on some negative trends.

Texas scored 102 points behind a 16/32 effort from beyond the arc. Seton Hall was the reverse, ripping off a 65% effort inside the arc despite not lighting the world on fire from three. The Pack's defensive numbers have sunk outside the top 100, with the latest game acting as an anchor.

Obviously, this defense is not designed to allow open shots. That would be a ludicrous claim and I don’t think that’s something anyone actually believes. At peak performance, it would be generating contested looks from three. Through seven games, it has not done that. Quality play within a scheme is a lot more about scheme activation than the actual scheme. 

It’s a complex system with the constant exchanges, mismatch management techniques, and the early help and baseline doubles that get things into rotation and recovery. Complex is a double-edge sword. When things get complicated, it provides more extensive answers for teams, but it's obviously harder to install. Seven games in, many of the jabs that the Pack took from Texas were busts that pointed to a team still trying to master the flow of this thing. 

Here are some examples. 

Both Lubin and Copeland carry the ball off the slip screen, leaving Darrion Williams in a difficult spot. State is not trying to hedge a ball screen here. This is a miscommunication.

This is another miscommunication with Arceneaux and Lubin both carrying the ball as it clears the screen. Sagnia has to prevent the dunk and it leads to an open three.

State has also had major issues trying to set its defense out of transition. It's given up a number of open threes before it's even set. This was really the deciding part of the Texas game. I lost count but the Horns hit several transition threes.

If you’re looking for sources of optimism following the Maui trip, there are a couple here. This is a theoretically fixable thing, and Will Wade was hired for moments exactly like this. Whenever I try to look into a team's early season problems, the first question is always "is this issue coachable?" This one is, and whether State sticks with this or makes some kind of sweeping adjustment, somebody who has won a lot of basketball games is working on it.

What's less coachable is the personnel that isn't perfectly cut out for this system. Will Wade has spoken on his intention to use the portal for about half the roster each year. This year, it was almost the entire roster, and some deficiencies are probably unavoidable there.

Ven-Allen Lubin has been impactful on the boards and is improving as a roll man, but he is going to be a defensive liability all year. There is not a fix for that within the current system. He just isn’t very good at guarding on the perimeter. Basically every opponent is trying to get him switched on a guard, and with State’s aggressive switching, it’s very easy. Whenever you run this type of switch-everything defense, the 1-5 exchanges and how you handle them are where you'll win and lose a lot.

A lot of possessions end up looking like this.

Texas gets Lubin on a guard and isolates. McNeil helps aggressively as State has been doing. The aggressive help is a feature, not a bug, but it is one that teams have exploited by attacking mismatches off the dribble and making the easy pass.

Lubin's inability to stay in front forces more help, which leads to more catch-and-shoot opportunities. Recently, he's started to play with more of a cushion to help prevent that, but it's led to some straight-away triples. There is not a great solution to this within the current scheme. This isn't me saying that Lubin is bad, just that the scheme and player haven't fit together so far.

I’ll personally be curious to see if something changes. It’s only been seven games, so we may find ourselves in acting rash territory, but the results definitely aren’t there so far. State could change the way it covers the ball screens, which would help mitigate mismatches. The team does not have the intimidating size that a drop coverage defense demands, but that's one of the easiest defenses to play. It also minimizes rotation, which naturally cuts down on good looks from three, as most three point shots result from the ball being ahead of rotation.

That would be a huge sweeping change and I'm not suggesting it's the answer. Identifying that answer lies with someone who knows way more than me. I'm merely using it as an example of how something could change. Whether it's a major adjustment, a minor one, or just an emphasis on the things it's not executing, something is going to be different this week. The coach seemed to make that clear in the latest presser.