Supermassive NC State Football Preview: Passing Game

It was a bit remarkable how far apart the ceiling and the floor were for NC State's passing game a year ago. The freshman QB experiment that was thrust upon the Wolfpack produced a couple of absolute bangers, including the Cal comeback, the Stanford game, and the second half of the unc game. Sandwiched in between those were the Duke and Georgia Tech disasters, in which CJ Bailey averaged 4.8 yards per attempt and threw four picks to one touchdown.

This is normal stuff for young players, especially young quarterbacks. You'd much rather be here, where you have tangible proof of upside, than left without much to build confidence on. When you add in the fact that Bailey made considerable strides toward that upside over the course of the season, and he has high-end talent returning around him, it paints a compelling picture. Can State take advantage of these pieces in 2025?

Quarterback

The only thing you could fairly ask of CJ Bailey in the situation he was thrown into was to improve. He did that. The entire thing was up and down as you might expect, but he improved a lot from his first start to the end of the year. Now, with a full offseason as the starter, the hope is that he can continue that trajectory and become a more consistent quarterback. 

You could make a highlight tape of 2024 CJ Bailey and make him look like an All-American, or you could make a lowlight tape and make him look like he's never played football before. He was inconsistent (not a synonym for bad) at almost every part of the position, as many talented freshman often are. In some plays, you see the talent show up. In others, you see the youth show up. Bailey did get better, though, and if he can build on his 2024 season, he could be a good quarterback this year.

First, Bailey needs to continue adding throws to his bag. He needs to be more accurate at all three levels, most notably down the field. Early last season, his deep ball was untenable, often left short and inside. He was fortunate to earn some DPI flags from those bad throws and only have one end in a pick. Gradually, that improved, and the growth culminated with the dime ball to Noah that allowed State to beat UNC. More of that, please.

He needed to get more air under these and get the ball outside against man coverage on the boundary. The first real attempts to push the ball down the field with Bailey were simplistic in structure, either a Justin Joly stalk-and-go or State would align formation into the boundary with one receiver in a wide split to the field and then target the one on one. State did this a lot and it really showed the shortcomings at that point in the year.

Above, State aligns formation into boundary to create the one-on-one for Rogers and Bailey takes the matchup. He leaves the ball short and inside and is really fortunate the DB couldn't make a better play on the ball.

Bailey also needs to develop as a processor, something that, once again, we watched him do over the course of the year. State's passing game did increase in complexity as the season went, and while that was objectively not conducive to winning, it did give us opportunities to see Bailey grow.

It starts with his presence in the pocket, which was arguably the worst thing about the quarterback last season. This skill set was in full crisis mode at times last year, and a lot of these instances went unnoticed because Bailey would exit a clean pocket and scramble for a first down. That play would record as a positive in the success rate metric, it would make his highlight tape, and the processing breakdown would be lost to time. Personally, I would trade the nine-yard run for a 60-yard touchdown.

The second step for Bailey is to believe what he’s seeing more. This is a trait that definitely improved over the course of the year, and that’s really encouraging for this coming season. Early on, after State started playing through more of its full offense with Bailey, he was really messy progressing through plays because he struggled to look at a picture and make a yes or no decision. Take this Y cross play for example. 

State ran this several times last year and taught it as a left-to-right progression. The go route to the field side is a clearout or a presnap Y/N against press coverage. The other three routes and the check down are in progression and timing is key like any progression-based passing play. Bailey is reading stick to over to dig to check down. The diagram is above in case that’s too much jargon. 

Bailey reads from one to two just fine, but he’s on two far too long. He doesn’t make a decision. The backside cross can be deadly in this concept and it is in this case. Noah Rogers wins big at the break and is wide open. Bailey is still looking at the second read, even after he climbs the pocket. The timing of the play is lost at that point. This is yards left on the field because the quarterback didn’t make a decision. 

Bailey is reading this left to right. The go route to the boundary is a pre-snap yes/no, and it's no with the corner's alignment. That means Bailey is reading stick to cross to backside dig and then the checkdown. He comes off the stick fine, but he stares down KC on the over route component. Even after he climbs the pocket, he never gets to the third progression. That's Noah Rogers, who wins big.

State ran the below flood concept a decent amount as well, and it’s a great example of improvement. This was not really a pure progression, but it was a left-to-right read for Bailey. State was asking him to hi-lo the flat defender in the smash concept and then progress to the backside cross. What that means is they want Bailey to read the closest underneath zone defender to the boundary and throw the over or under him depending on his vertical movement. The backside cross can come open if the hook defender (2nd from the boundary) works toward the smash concept. 

This was against Wake. It's a bad play from the quarterback.

The corner is low here. Bailey should read the lack of depth from the corner and throw this ball facemask or above to Wesley Grimes, and if he doesn’t like that, he should work back to Justin Joly’s cross. Instead, he forces the ball to the underneath route and throws it out of bounds.

Fast forward to the Stanford game, and Bailey is running the same concept and does about as good of a job as you could do with it. 

Bailey reads the low flat defender, looks to Grimes and doesn't like the picture, then works to the backside cross and finds it for a 3rd down conversion. Ball is a little off, but the processing is right on.

That’s the kind of growth that you wanted to see. His skills as a processor very clearly improved over the course of the year. One of my favorite examples was this bow concept play that State ran throughout the year. I urge you to watch the below video if you really want to see the details of his progress. I go through each individual example and you can see him grow play to play. He started to get it more toward the end of the year. 

Bailey also needs to do better identifying coverage rotations post-snap. The safety structure is the key read for a quarterback because it tells you a lot about the general structure of the coverage. Duke rotated its safeties a lot in this game and, not surprisingly, he was poor in that game.  

The boundary safety here is creeping down before the snap and is going to replace the linebacker with flat zone responsibility as Duke runs a five-man pressure. Bailey needs to see this, identify it as a possible post-snap rotation, and read the safety rotation. This is a critical part of this particular play, which is a HOSS concept designed the horizontally stress the middle safety. When this becomes cover 3 for Duke, he should be reading seam to seam as the concept horizontally stretches the post safety.. You'll notice that Joly is absolutely wide open at the top of the screen. That's where the ball should have gone based on how this concept gets read.

Like almost every other part of his game, there was good and bad here. He did improve here too.

UNC is running a brand of quarters called Trix. This is sometimes categorized as a poach coverage. It's a check for a 3x1 alignment that puts the weak safety on the number three receiver if he's vertical. Bailey has Noah Rogers at the top of the screen with press coverage and he's seeing a split safety shell with the same staggered look as above. He reads the weak safety after the snap, sees him turn to number three (KC), and knows he has Rogers isolated. It's a good read and a better ball.

The game gets considerably faster and more complicated at the college level, and you want to see Bailey become accustomed to that this year. He is by all accounts a very smart guy, and I think pairing his continued growth with a more quarterback-friendly offensive coordinator at least puts a big season on the table. There’s a good chance that the Pack will need to score a lot to have a successful season, but the good news is that it has the playmakers to do that. It needs consistent play from its quarterback. It needs last year’s trajectory to continue, and if it does, it may find a fun and explosive offense in there. 

Pass Catchers 

State had one of its most talented receiving corps ever in 2024, but it did not have one of its most productive. The depth may have been a bit of a facade with how young some of the unit was, but so many things went wrong here from top to bottom, even with the experienced parts of the group. Noah Rogers, Wesley Grimes, and Kevin Concepcion all dropped the ball too often, State’s bloated rotation made it hard for guys to settle in, and inconsistent quarterback play left opportunities on the field. Between missed guys that were open and dropped passes, State left just an insane amount of yards on the field. 

The Pack is looking for a step forward from some of these ultra-talented receivers. Concepcion is gone, and there are positives and negatives to that. He was an NIL vacuum, had sub-mediocre hands, and generally seemed to raise some flags with his body language. He was also an A-grade route runner with an elite win rate against man coverage. The latter will be missed, but State returns several guys who have similar ceilings, pretty much all in very different molds.

Wesley Grimes and Noah Rogers come back as the headliners. Keenan Jackson and Terrell Anderson also bring real talent as sophomores. Most importantly, Justin Joly is back. He is the best player on the whole football team. If you can’t create something positive out of that group this year, something is just very wrong. 

There is way too much talent there. Rogers is the most compelling as a full-package receiver (we’re counting Joly as a tight end here for now). He’s got juice as a route runner. State put him in a lot of backside crosses and he would win against man coverage in those types of second level routes. Dacari Collins got way too many reps over Rogers last year, and that happening again is fortunately impossible. This is your premier candidate for a breakout season. Grimes I think has a little more pure speed. I like him as a go-route connoisseur and I think he can be effective there. Like every other player on the team last year other than Justin Joly, just please catch the football. 

I really like Keenan Jackson. His body control and point-of-catch ability is impressive. He brings a wide catch radius, and that’s something you can definitely use in one-on-one situations. I think Anderson does as well, we just didn’t see it as much. These are two guys with serious upside, and Jackson is a good pick for a breakout season. State is big and athletic at receiver. There is no reason why this group can't excel.

This is before we even get to the most impressive athlete that will split wide this year. Justin Joly is elite and a guy that should put up big numbers with better quarterback play and a boost of creativity from the OC. He is one of the best pass-catching tight ends in the country, and we’ll talk a little about how State can use him to matchup hunt once we get to the scheme section. 

Joly is a wicked route runner at his size and he has an excellent catch radius. He’s not really a guy that you’re going to knock off a route much either just because he’s enormous. I have no idea if he’ll make an NFL roster without significant improvement as a run blocker, but he’s an NFL player in every other way. 

Joly is on the seam on the wide side here, matched up against a smaller player (I think a nickel). The DB is playing what's called catch man here and is trying to collision Joly. He barely gets a hand on him and loses by about two yards.

Here's Joly showing off the catch radius matched up against a nickel in a 4 verticals play. He's a hard cover for anyone, especially a slower player like a linebacker. When you match him up with a DB, he can use his size at the catch point to win. Truly a matchup problem.

One thing State does not have is a prototypical slot receiver other than maybe Jonathan Paylor, who is a big question mark. People want to know about Paylor, one of the highest-rated recruits Doeren has ever signed. I do not know about Paylor. It would be nice to get someone on the field with true short-area quickness that can run stuff like a juke route or a lion route. That will remain to be seen.

Pass Protection 

Pass protection should be one of the strongest parts of the team. It was last year, and while State loses something for sure in run blocking with Belton and Correll, it doesn’t lose as much here. Tujague's unit was very good in protection a year ago, and I'd project that it will approach that again.

Starting at right tackle, State has added Utah State transfer Teague Andersen as a plug-and-play edge protector, and pass protection is his strength. He is closer to Anthony Belton/Jacarrius Peak as a pass protector than as a run blocker, and he should be a strong addition protecting the edge, where he allowed six quarterback hurries on 474 pass protection snaps last season.

Andersen handles speed off the edge pretty well. He’s good using what’s called a vertical set and staying square to pure speed rushes, and he’s pretty good about not overplaying and getting beat by the inside move. This was a big portal pickup to solidify a position that lacked depth.

The other portal addition comes at center with Purdue transfer Jalen Grant. Grant was a starter at right guard for the Boilermakers back in 2023, then mysteriously played 50-some snaps total before exiting the program in 2024. Like Andersen, I think he has more to offer as a pass protector than as a run blocker. I watched every rep from the Ohio State game in 2023, and I thought he held up well against two first and second round draft picks at defensive tackle.

Grant is at right guard here, matched up against Tyleik Williams, the 28th pick in this year's NFL draft. It may not be the most exciting rep in the world from Williams, but Grant held up well against these talented linemen save one rep where he got a high hand and got bulldozed.

I have more concerns about right guard. Just like we talked about in the run blocking section, both of State's options here need to show more awareness and reactivity to games and blitzes. Truthfully, neither of these guys were super playable last year. The youth was really that evident. This is really poor.

This is actually a draw play, but normal pass blocking rules should apply on the right side with Erickson (54) at tackle and Smith at guard (79). I think this is a read stunt from the ECU backer, meaning he's stunting back to the A gap when the tackle fans out toward him. The tackle and guard should essentially exchange responsibilities here. They should power down on the 3 tech and Smith should come off of that to the backer. That process obviously goes very wrong.

These are young players. As we talked about in the run game section, they're pretty gifted physically as prospects. It's a developmental storyline to watch this season. Jalen Grant's scouting report is kind of the opposite of those two guys, and if Spike Sowells proves ready and State runs into issues at right guard, you may see Grant slide there. He's smaller and doesn't have the power potential that those guys do, but he shows good awareness and understanding of rules. The game looks slower for him. I think he's physically good in interior pass pro too. At center, it’s a lot more middle push from the interior of the defensive line trying to constrain escape lanes and squeeze the pocket while the edges collapse it. Grant handled that power sufficiently in the reps that I watched.

Peak's strength shows up in pass protection too. He has a good anchor and will very rarely if ever lose to a bull rush. Power on power, Peak is going to win at a high rate. His core strength is tremendous. Sometimes he can lose to speed. It's certainly where he's more vulnerable, and he had a couple of rough reps against UNC where he got beat with an inside move, but the strength remains tremendous. Peak and Anthony Carter together should make a good left side, just as it will in the run game. I really like them both.

Peak at right tackle and McKay at right guard on the man-to-man side of the protection are going to exchange when Duke stunts the end. Peak sets vertically picking up the end and isn't able to get square to the tackle after the stunt, but it's in the recovery that you can really see the power.

It should be a very solid offensive line in pass protection. State was good all year last year and adds some plug-and-play elements to replace what it lost. A decent chunk of the sacks that it did allow last season were the result of backs blowing assignments and the quarterback not understanding how to move within the pocket. While pass protection can’t do anything about the latter, the former is another reason to feel good about pass pro. Smothers is good here. 

He’s small, but he’s reliably right and he is willing. The back is a critical part of pass protection. Full slide protections will always leave an edge unassigned and half-slide protections, the most common form of pass protection, are always at risk of numbers disadvantages on the man-to-man side. The back has to be able to ID pressures from the second level and pick up unassigned blitzers. It's not just "stand there and block a guy if you can." The back has to make blitz reads pre-snap.

State is in a pull protection here, a common protection scheme to couple with play action. Belton and McKay, who is the puller, are going to be responsible for the first and second body to the left of the left guard. Smothers is on a check and release, meaning he checks for additional blitzers on the man-to-man side, which will be unaccounted for without him. If he's clear, he releases and becomes a checkdown. Here, he's picking up the blitzing linebacker 50 backer and doing a pretty good job.

Scheme

State’s passing offense in 2024 was frustrating. It did not handle the quarterback transition well and never made an effort to simplify things for CJ Bailey short of running a stalk-and-go 52 times with Justin Joly and calling absolutely useless formation-into-boundary shot plays. 

Anae did not try very hard to make the scheme work for the quarterback. He did a poor job of scheming easy reads and throwing windows for CJ Bailey through the use of grab routes, play action, and series-based play calling. Instead it was a lot of various full-field reads and 4 and 5-read progression plays that asked the quarterback to process more. The quarterback was talented but never fully comfortable with this, so it bred inconsistent results. 

The problem I had with last season was the high volume of schematically-difficult plays for the defense that State itself was not good at running. Yes, 4 verticals is universally threatening and Q counter gives defensive coordinators headaches because of the numbers advantages it automatically creates. But the team was not good at running those plays. Anae overused concepts that were theoretically difficult for the defense, but the people trying to execute them weren’t good enough at it. 

State needs to build around the strengths of its players more. That doesn’t necessarily mean that Kurt Roper needs to simplify and do what would work for freshman CJ Bailey. This is sophomore CJ Bailey, and it’s probably not the same thing. It just means that he needs to better grasp the strengths and weaknesses of the quarterback and put him in positions that correctly leverage those.

This was a play State ran 6-7 times over the year, primarily against cover 1/3 teams, and Bailey was good at throwing it.

It's more a vertical stretch on the zone than a horizontal stretch, and that's something State lacked. A play like 4 verts creates horizontal stretch of the deep zone. It's a ubiquitous play in football and it can work against 99% of coverages because of its versatility, provided the quarterback can ID the coverage, affect the safety if necessary, and throw an accurate ball. Bailey wasn't great at these things. He was better at plays that asked him to read zone defenders vertically.

I would like to see State use more stuff like these 3 examples below, particularly with play action.

I think it's an easier read for Bailey. These types of things are usually read from more of a high to low progression, they create second-level throwing windows if the safety carries the deep route, and Bailey was hitting those at the end of the year. It's also a valuable tool to pair with play action, which you can use to widen throwing windows by sucking down zone defenders.

State basically never tried to vertically stretch safeties with play action and 7-man protections. It was definitely in the playbook because it ran this stuff with McCall and with MJ Morris and Brennan Armstrong. State was more interested in horizontal stretchers like four verts and using KC in the slot fade. I’m not the coordinator, and thank goodness for that, but I want to see State diversify the passing game more and include simpler reads in there. These plays have value regardless of who your quarterback is. Dillon Gabriel spent a decade in college and was a Heisman finalist and you saw Oregon run this stuff all the time. Every play can’t be simple, but you need to have some of these to use off of your run game and create downfield windows for the quarterback. 

I also want to see Roper do more with Justin Joly. He’s such an incredible matchup problem. State had him running a lot of seam verticals last year, which is a really good route for him. He won a lot against man coverage in those situations, and Bailey needs to elevate his game and hit those this year, but I think you can use more bunches and do more matchup hunting with him. Bunches and stacks trigger specific man-match coverage rules in really any defense that plays any man coverage. They have to sort out these bunches to prevent rubs, and that leads to rules like banjo, where you’re in man coverage but the outside defender’s responsibility is not an individual player, but rather whichever receiver is outside first. 

That can help neutralize the effectiveness of rub concepts, but it makes it difficult for defenses to be consistent with which defensive back is covering which receiver. Aligning in a bunch and using switch releases to trigger these rules can create advantageous matchups, such as Joly running a go route against a 5’9 corner or some linebacker that can’t stay with him. 

Parting Thoughts

CJ Bailey is a talented quarterback. If he can prove he has the goods this year with this receiving corps and Daylan Smothers to set the table for play action concepts, it should be a good offense. I know a lot of people are in wait-and-see mode given State's recent offensive history, and I think that's understandable. Predictions are a fool's errand in general, so I'm not telling you it will be great, but the pieces are here for a strong, balanced offense. If State can get another step toward consistency out of Bailey and a replacement level performance from Kurt Roper, it should improve a lot from a year ago.

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