The Monday After: Virginia

Are you not entertained?!

This was the perfect ESPN2 nooner: explosive plays, good quarterback play, lead swings back and forth, and a final play that decided it all.

Funny enough, State's postgame win expectancy this game was higher than it was against ECU, coming in at 94%. (More on why that is in a minute.)

When State found itself in a 24-14 hole at the half, I was pretty down. State had just given up a field goal, 3-and-out, a 48 yard punt return, and a last minute touchdown. And a horrific no-call - the clearest pass interference and defensive holding on the planet - made it all happen:

 (I'm not sure if we're still sending videos to the league office, but this one should absolutely be reviewed.)

From half on, State allowed one touchdown. They scored three in a row in the third quarter, and then locked it down with a big time play from one of State's best players. And State went for it on multiple fourth downs. What more could you want?

Maybe a heat index under 105, that's super fair.

This game wasn't without headache and breakdowns, but this was the kind of Saturday in Carter-Finley that reminds you why we get out to Trinity Road at 7 AM in the Fall. These are the days.

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Stat(s) of the Game

It would be unethical for me to start anywhere but here: the stat line that drove the plot of this game.

Late down execution.

Here's a screenshot that shows Virginia's 3rd down execution vs. State's:

Let's go a step further.

Virginia finished the game with 11.28 Expected Points Added, shortened to EPA. 21 of their 85 plays came on late downs (3rd and 4th down.)

On early downs, Virginia finished with:

• Success Rate of 33.3%

• EPA of -7.89 (🤮)

On late downs, Virginia finished with:

• Success rate of 71.4%

• EPA of 26.98

...what's up?

If Virginia was consistently great across their downs, then I would be less "wowed" by the gap in third down execution. But the fact that UVA stunk the majority of the time on early downs, and kept themselves in the game with HUGE plays - while facing an average third down distance of ~6 yards to gain - is unsustainable, and honestly, hard to explain.

On the other hand, if you reference the above screenshot, it looks like State stinks on 3rd down. But the reality here is State was so damn good on first and second downs (Early Downs EPA was 26.1!) that they only faced 7 third downs. Yes, they only converted one, but when you add in State's two fourth down conversions on two attempts, you get a fairly well executed day offensively.

So we're back to one of my favorite adages: multiple things can be true at once.

There's some luck involved in these numbers. I'd be shocked if UVA had another game this year that eclipsed their effectiveness on late downs.

But that doesn't mean State didn't have a lot to contribute in these situations: run busts, coverage communication challenges, and young guys playing like young guys are controllables that State has to get fixed quickly to compete for anything in the ACC.

Spring Portal Saviors

For the second straight week, State's two best defensive players were Sebastian Harsh and Cian Slone.

The two combined for 6 quarterback pressures, a tackle for loss, and the game sealing interception.

For some reason I got lucky watching Slone on this one. I lost my mind watching him drop into coverage on the wheel route, turn around, and make the grab:

It's a scary thought exercise: where would this team be without two late transfers into Raleigh from Mountain West schools?

Defensive Fixes

With that being said, it's probably not a good thing that your defense has rested on the laurels of two late additions to the roster.

Some nasty stats in addition to the third down mishaps above:

• 15 missed tackles per PFF

• 13 quarterback hurries - good! - but zero sacks - no good

• 1 takeaway - a big one, but only 1 takeaway through 2 games is not good enough

Alec did a great job of highlighting some of the ​major issues ​you'll see with this unit on tape. So far, it's been fairly easy to exploit new Safety Ronnie Royal. Guys are flat out missing coverage rules, bumping into each other, and not passing off assignments well. It's been particularly rough from Sean Brown and Caden Fordham, two guys State has been hyping up this offseason who have yet to seriously take control of a game. It's a mess.

And when you layer in the missed tackle issues, you've got a real mess.

I said this after ECU, and I'll say it again: I believe N.C. State's defense is better than average on a down to down basis. It's the 80/20 rule in practice.

If State gets out talented and a Jeremiah Smith-type talent blows by a defender, hey, it happens. But that's not what's happening here (for the most part!) and these are fixable mistakes.

For State to play to its ceiling, controlling the controllable looks like:

• Improving big time on zone based pass coverage principles

• Understanding and executing run fits effectively

• Minimizing missed tackles

Imagine taking the "inputs" from State's defense against ECU, the offense from UVA, and pairing them together for the rest of the season. That's a good team.

Offensive Greenshoots

A widely shared narrative in football is the idea that teams make their largest improvements from week one to week two. It'd be easy to argue that this is true with State's offense - look at the gains from week one to week two:

Against ECU:

• 2.18 points per possession (11 drives)

• 3.47 yards per carry

• 1 sack allowed

• 42% success rate (53rd percentile)

• .05 EPA/play (55th percentile)

Against Virginia:

• 3.9 PPP (9 drives)

• 7.26 YPC

• 0 sacks allowed

• 55% success rate (95th percentile)

• .45 EPA/Play (97th percentile)

State has too many good offensive players for everyone to get fed video game numbers. You might look at a box score and go "dang, nobody blew up today" but with this cast, I don't think that's a bad thing. Defenses can't afford to key in on any one guy; there's virtually no drop off from State's first string WR group to its second.

It also helps that Hollywood Smothers is too good. 17 carries on 8.2 yards per pop, two touchdowns, and 153 total yards. Once again, that doesn't tell the full story: he forced six missed tackles, and 121 of his yards came after contact.

If State's offensive line can get back to average, or even above average, and give Hollywood a couple yards of room, he's going to make teams pay.

I'm not sure that this is a good thing or bad thing, but you haven't seen standout play from Justin Joly yet. I'm less concerned with box score stats with him, and more concerned about what's on tape.

Part of the issue is what's been asked of him so far. In game one especially, there were some weird blocking asks of him that did not put him in a position to succeed. He's had one clear drop plus another iffy one, and his average depth of target so far is at 5.1 yards, vs. 10 last year. It's not all him, but he's not been Justin Joly quite yet. Getting him to that level is yet another ceiling-raiser for this side of the ball.

Bailey-ving in C.J.

Of course the ultimate ceiling raiser is your quarterback being a stud. This week, you saw many reasons to Bailey-ve in C.J. (Shoutout Colin and Ryan for coining this one in Section 26, and sorry for making all of you read this in written form.)

The statistical output from Mr. Bailey wasn't mind blowing, but this might've been the smoothest game we've seen from him.

He looked in control for the vast majority of the game. You saw less happy feet and a willingness to hang in the pocket. You don't want your guys to overcorrect on coaching points, and with that in mind, I loved that we still saw him scramble for his long touchdown in a situation where that was clearly the right decision.

Bailey graded out well per PFF, and his ESPN QBR of 90 was the highest he's manufactured outside of the Stanford game last year. He had a really good week and put himself in some great company nationally:

While C.J. is far from a finished player, there's a pattern emerging that he can and will rise to the occasion in close games. I'm not sure how else to put it: this dude is a gamer, and it's been fun watching him grow in a short amount of time.

State needs that to continue, especially if this defensive performance is going to be closer to the norm.

Final Thoughts

I was most encouraged by the progression we saw along the offensive line this week. I don't think this unit reaches ~top 30 quality in run blocking like they were last year, but getting back to average or slightly above will give Hollywood chances to change games.

Defensively, I guess I'm most encouraged by most of the issues this week being assignment based. You can coach and reinforce gap assignments and pass coverage rules, though at some point you do have to execute against them.

Wake is not a particularly talented football team, but the one thing they can do is run the football. Demond Claiborne won the game last year for them, and QB Robby Ashford is barely a quarterback but can hurt you with his legs.

Vegas has this game at State -7 right now. That feels right, but I'd prefer to not play in yet another one score game.