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2025 Week 4 Predictions - NC State @ Duke: Shirley thicc-six, and pretend bull/devils
- Essad Malik
- 3 days ago
- 6 min read
Recap from Last Week, Week 3 @ Wake Forest
As said on the Lotcast, 3-0 is a quarter of the way to being undefeated. It always feels great to be able to come out of Winston-Salem with a win, considering it hasn't happened that often. Going 30 years between back-to-back wins at Wake Forest shows how dominant the home team has been in this annoyingly evenly matched series.... You just wish it didn't require a second half comeback like that. NC State has way more talent than Wake Forest, and after an opening kickoff return TD, and multiple busts in the secondary, NC State quickly found themselves down 14-0.
This game had such an odd first quarter, two random occurrences that you almost never see happened in the first 14 minutes of this game. The aforementioned kickoff TD, and a thicc-six. Isaiah Shirley got all the credit, deservedly so, for his big-man interception return. But that play was really kickstarted by Brandon Cleveland.
I suggest watching clip a few times (I've watched it a few hundred). Keep an eye on Cleveland, #44. The left side defensive end is Sebastian Harsh, #54. Next to him is the gap that Sean Brown blitzes through. Shirley's interception is then sparked by one of Brandon Cleveland's best plays of the season. Off the snap, he blows back the right guard. It seemed like this was a designed twist, where he and Shirley swapped places. Cleveland wasn't trying to push his guy upfield, but to Shirley's side, as Shirley curls around. But this ended up being like in the original Tecmo Bowl where you had a one in four chance of picking the same defensive play as the other picks on offense which would put your guy in the exact position the ball is coming. I doubt Shirley was intending to be running with the crossing receiver, but it's possible he was in coverage since we saw that in the ECU game. The ball just landed directly in his hands, but credit to him for making something from it. To Ashford's credit, had it not been for Shirley, the pass was actually spot on accurate. It would have still set up 3rd and long, since the rest of the coverage was closing the gap FAST had he caught the ball. But back to Cleveland, he lines up against the right guard, and blows him into the center. Because Shirley pulled off of his block of the left guard, he and the left tackle ended up having nobody to guard, and while they're trying to curl around to chase Shirley, Cleveland gets ALL FOUR dudes swallowed up. This is why Shirley has nothing but grass ahead of him when he catches the ball. Also, give credit to Harsh. He blew right past the Wake right tackle, having him backpedal and out of the play.
In the end, it shows how well the team is playing together to create these plays. They don't happen solely by individuals, apart from the players around them. This play evened the score, and sparked the team to come back and win the game.
Last week, I said, "CJ Bailey had one of his, if not the, best performances for NC State. It was one of those weird games where State came back in the second half, and even though it was tense, Bailey, Hollywood Smothers, and the rest of the offense gave a surprising confidence that they'd pull it out."
LOL, okay well, copy and paste that for this week too. Along with, "NC State has now played two (three) solid teams to start the season, giving it some good tests of battle readiness. Here's hoping they can win just a tad more comfortably, as one possession games are quite nerve racking."
Updated look at the team's predictions against their preseason picks week over week.
Schedule | ESPN Predicto-Bot | Alec Lower | Essad Malik | Trey Lower | Jackson Williford | Actual Results |
Week 1 (Thu, 8/28) vs ECU Preseason pick | 69.7% - 30.3% (W) | 37-24 (W) | 28-20 (W) | 24-20 (W) | 38-21 (W) | |
During season pick | 69.7% - 30.3% (W) | 37-24 (W) | 31-21 (W) | 24-20 (W) | 38-21 (W) | 24-17 (W) |
Week 2 (9/6) vs UVA (Non-Conference) | 64.2% - 35.8% (W) | 29-24 (W) | 27-19 (W) | 23-16 (W) | 31-24 (W) | |
During season pick | 48.6% - 51.4% (L) | 20-21 (L) | 27-24 (W) | 30-26 (W) | 27-24 (W) | 35-31 (W) |
Week 3 (Thu, 9/11) vs WtFU | 66.7% - 33.3% (W) | 33-7 (W) | 17-20 (L) | 35-20 (W) | 35-20 (W) | |
During season pick | 74.2% - 25.8% (W) | 38-17 (W) | 34-31 (W) | 31-28 (W) | 31-21 (W) | 34-24 W |
Week 4 (9/20) @ Duke | 37.3% - 62.7% (L) | 23-35 (L) | 13-37 (L) | 14-28 (L) | 21-28 (L) | |
50.3% - 49.7% (W) | 33-38 (L) | 27-35 (L) | 31-28 (W) | 27-30 (L) | ||
Week 5 (9/27) vs VT | 37.3% - 62.7% (L) | 34-41 (L) | 27-24 (W) | 35-31 (W) | 28-24 (W) | |
Week 6 (10/4) vs Campbell | 99% - 1% (W) | 50-10 (W) | 42-17 (W) | 63-7 (W) | 45-14 (W) | |
Week 7 (10/11) @ ND | 9% - 91% (L) | 13-42 (L) | 10-37 (L) | 0-35 (L) | 14-38 (L) | |
Week 8 (10/25) @ Pitt | 46.8% - 53.2% (L) | 35-28 (W) | 24-28 (L) | 20-21 (L) | 31-35 (L) | |
Week 9 (11/1) vs GT | 42.2% - 57.8% (L) | 31-24 (W) | 23-21 (W) | 30-27 (W) | 30-31 (L) | |
Week 10 (11/15) @ Miami | 16.6% - 83.4% (L) | 42-45 (L) | 37-31 (W) | 21-45 (L) | 21-38 (L) | |
Week 11 (Fri, 11/21) vs FSU | 62% - 38% (W) | 23-20 (W) | 24-22 (W) | 28-17 (W) | 34-31 (W) | |
Week 12 (11/29) vs unc | 58% - 42% (W) | 84-2 (W) | 17-37 (L) | 93285 - -234 (W) (yes, that's a negative score) | 28-27 (W) | |
How well do these predictions add up for the season so far?
Actual Record to Date = 3-0 | ESPN Predicto-Bot | Alec Lower | Essad Malik | Trey Lower | Jackson Williford |
Preseason Predicted Record to Date | 3 - 0 | 3 - 0 | 2 - 1 | 3 - 0 | 3 - 0 |
Incorrect Picks | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
During Season Predicted Record to Date | 2 - 1 | 2 - 1 | 3 - 0 | 3 - 0 | 3 - 0 |
Incorrect Picks | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Week 3 vs Wake Forest - Thu, 9/11/25
You know what has an even better sound than 3-0? 4-0! In order to do that, back to the scene of the crime from 2023, when a very good NC State team couldn't do a single thing right en route to a 24-3 debacle that sealed the Pack's fate to keep them from a bid in Charlotte that year. Similar to Wake Forest, playing at Duke is so weird because they have an oddly good team, but no fans to watch them. Duke and Wake's teams are the epitome of the "if a tree falls in the forest" adage. If nobody is there to see said good team, did it really exist?
And now, on to our Week 3 predictions!
Name | Prediction | Comments |
ESPN Predicto-Bot | 50.3% - 49.7% (W) | This game was predicted as a 37.3%-62.7% win for Duke and is now a toss-up. The line is just Duke -2.5 with the action down the middle. Basically, toss a coin. |
Alec Lower | 33-38 (L) | Back and forth game in the second half. Big day for Mensah puts Duke over the top. |
Essad Malik | 35-27 (W) | Duke hits two explosive plays as Mensah takes the top off the defense to put them ahead. But CJ Bailey leads a late go-ahead TD, even though Hollywood has an off game. |
Trey Lower | 31-28 (W) | Essentially, this is the game of the year for State to determine if this team can be an actual contender, or if its same stuff different year. I'm feeling pretty good, something is different with the 2025 Wolfpack compared to 2024. |
Jackson Williford | 27-30 (L) | Duke is better than 1-2. Mensah will succeed against State's young secondary, and Bailey and co come up short. Special teams (gulp) makes an impact. |
So, what do you think will happen this week? Let us know in the comments below, and respond in the poll with your pick!
Who do you think will win?
NC State Wolfpack
Duke Blue Devils
AI Image of the Week
This week's image might be my finest work. I have found it really funny how Duke all of a sudden in recent years started embracing Durham as their city (aka Bull City?), and adopted that dumb bull horn hand signal. It's understanble for them to be jealous when living so close to greatness.
“Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery that mediocrity can pay to greatness.”- Oscar Wilde
You tell 'em, Oscar. So, the theme this week is trying to depict a devil pretending to be a bull. The result was so good that I didn't even mind that I forgot to tell the AI to make the costume blue. Having both the devil and bull horns in what is clearly an ill-fitting costume is just perfection. Well done, clanker.
