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2025 Week 5 Predictions - NC State vs VT: turkey dinner on deck
- Essad Malik
- Sep 27
- 5 min read
Recap from Last Week, Week 4 @ Duke
3-1 does not feel as good as 4-0. The Wolfpack were in that game. It's of little consolation now when looking at a 12 point loss. But until Anderson Castle ran for a 66 yard TD, NC State had worked against all odds to claw themselves back into a game that Duke had taken control of. When Will Wilson bulldozed his way to his first touchdown, the Pack had cut the score to 5 points, and had Duke pinned back at their own 34 yard line facing a 3rd and 1. If they get a stop there, then it's a two-minute drill to win the game, and I just CJ Bailey and Hollywood Smothers in that situation.
The problem is, success rates on 1st and 2nd down have not matched 3rd downs. As much as I have trust in CJ and the offense, I have an equal and opposite amount of distrust in the defense to get a crucial stop in that situation. Duke won all the blocks as they ran Castle up the middle and he bounced it to the house. This will continue to be the Achilles heel of this NC State team, and will ultimately limit their ceiling.
Updated look at the team's predictions against their preseason picks week over week.
Schedule | ESPN Predicto-Bot | Alec Lower | Essad Malik | Trey Lower | Jackson Williford | Actual Results |
Week 1 (Thu, 8/28) vs ECU Preseason pick | 69.7% - 30.3% (W) | 37-24 (W) | 28-20 (W) | 24-20 (W) | 38-21 (W) | |
During season pick | 69.7% - 30.3% (W) | 37-24 (W) | 31-21 (W) | 24-20 (W) | 38-21 (W) | 24-17 (W) |
Week 2 (9/6) vs UVA (Non-Conference) | 64.2% - 35.8% (W) | 29-24 (W) | 27-19 (W) | 23-16 (W) | 31-24 (W) | |
During season pick | 48.6% - 51.4% (L) | 20-21 (L) | 27-24 (W) | 30-26 (W) | 27-24 (W) | 35-31 (W) |
Week 3 (Thu, 9/11) vs WtFU | 66.7% - 33.3% (W) | 33-7 (W) | 17-20 (L) | 35-20 (W) | 35-20 (W) | |
During season pick | 74.2% - 25.8% (W) | 38-17 (W) | 34-31 (W) | 31-28 (W) | 31-21 (W) | 34-24 (W) |
Week 4 (9/20) @ Duke | 37.3% - 62.7% (L) | 23-35 (L) | 13-37 (L) | 14-28 (L) | 21-28 (L) | |
50.3% - 49.7% (W) | 33-38 (L) | 27-35 (L) | 31-28 (W) | 27-30 (L) | 33-45 (L) | |
Week 5 (9/27) vs VT | 37.3% - 62.7% (L) | 34-41 (L) | 27-24 (W) | 35-31 (W) | 28-24 (W) | |
64.9% - 35.1% (W) | 45-20 (W) | 37-27 (W) | 38-17 (W) | 38-27 (W) | ||
Week 6 (10/4) vs Campbell | 99% - 1% (W) | 50-10 (W) | 42-17 (W) | 63-7 (W) | 45-14 (W) | |
Week 7 (10/11) @ ND | 9% - 91% (L) | 13-42 (L) | 10-37 (L) | 0-35 (L) | 14-38 (L) | |
Week 8 (10/25) @ Pitt | 46.8% - 53.2% (L) | 35-28 (W) | 24-28 (L) | 20-21 (L) | 31-35 (L) | |
Week 9 (11/1) vs GT | 42.2% - 57.8% (L) | 31-24 (W) | 23-21 (W) | 30-27 (W) | 30-31 (L) | |
Week 10 (11/15) @ Miami | 16.6% - 83.4% (L) | 42-45 (L) | 37-31 (W) | 21-45 (L) | 21-38 (L) | |
Week 11 (Fri, 11/21) vs FSU | 62% - 38% (W) | 23-20 (W) | 24-22 (W) | 28-17 (W) | 34-31 (W) | |
Week 12 (11/29) vs unc | 58% - 42% (W) | 84-2 (W) | 17-37 (L) | 93285 - -234 (W) (yes, that's a negative score) | 28-27 (W) | |
How well do these predictions add up for the season so far?
Actual Record to Date = 3-0 | ESPN Predicto-Bot | Alec Lower | Essad Malik | Trey Lower | Jackson Williford |
Preseason Predicted Record to Date | 3 - 1 | 3 - 1 | 2 - 2 | 3 - 1 | 3 - 1 |
Incorrect Picks | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
During Season Predicted Record to Date | 3 - 1 | 2 - 2 | 4 - 0 | 4 - 0 | 3 - 1 |
Incorrect Picks | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Predictions: Week 5 vs VT - 9/27/25
All the above being said, the goals in the ACC are still in front of the Wolfpack. As of this writing, Duke is playing well against Syracuse and Wake Forest (!!) is up two scores at the half against GT. If FSU beats Miami then everything is reset and up for grabs.
However, that requires taking care of business. This week's task is a Virginia Tech team that isn't quite falling apart so much as interim head coach and offensive coordinator Philip Montgomery has to do what he can to pick up the pieces to salvage a season that was lost before it really got started. If you're NC State, you simply can not lose this game, no matter what. It would be absolutely devastating, which is actually a Wolfpack tradition unlike any other, so you never know. Ultimately, the staff is pretty confident in tonight's outcome, which obviously means nothing can go wrong...
And now, on to our Week 5 predictions!
Name | Prediction | Comments |
ESPN Predicto-Bot | 64.9% - 35.1% (W) | The bot was really high on VT going into the season, this has flipped from a 37.3%-64.9% loss in its preseason prediction. |
Alec Lower | 45-20 (W) | VT is a dumpster fire that someone is trying to put out with a soggy paper towel. No idea how many of its already struggling will even stick around. State will allow some explosives as they do, but I don't see this one being close. |
Essad Malik | 37-27 (W) | VT is going to gain back some momentum, as teams often do under interim coaches. They had summarily quit but looked spry against (I know) Wofford last week. Kyron Drones will keep the turkey-men in this game, but ultimately, all their defections on defense will bite them as NC State will have too much firepower in the end. |
Trey Lower | 38-17 (W) | Ah yes, the old interim coach trick. What could go wrong?! I think State's offense is simply too good to struggle against a possibly very depleted VT team that gave up 45 points and 526 yards to… checks notes… something called an Old Dominion |
Jackson Williford | 38-27 (W) | State should handle a VT team on quit watch, but they'll slip up several times and keep them in the game. Especially on a wet field. |
So, what do you think will happen this week? Let us know in the comments below, and respond in the poll with your pick!
Who do you think will win?
NC State Wolfpack
Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University Hokies
AI Image of the Week
The weather might not agree, but playing a team of turkeys this week brings up mental images of Thanksgiving being (sorta) around the corner. To that end, everyone loves a good old cartoon style turkey dinner right?
I couldn't pick between these two:
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