...A First Four Rematch?

When you end up in Dayton - no matter how surprised or angry you might be - there were things in your control that you didn’t handle. Wade described my feelings exactly when asked about the tourney draw: 

You did it to yourself. 

And also: I’m pretty ticked about this draw. I have no idea how the committee looks at their own seed list and pits Texas against State here, as one of their “flexible” principles is avoiding early round rematches. State could play, stick with me here, the last team in with Miami OH - given that the Pack was the highest rated 11 seed in the play-in? Is that using too much common sense here?

While frustration here is valid, I’d be lying to myself if that anger wasn’t also pulling from the way this year played out. The missed opportunities and self-destruct-button-pushes we saw up and down the schedule this year. Going 3-6 in close games does you no favors. (That Georgia Tech loss is going to be talked about for years to come, huh?)

But still, it’s March. Hope springs eternal in this glorious month, as bad as the last segement of this season has been. The cosmic force of the Madness throws all logic and sense out the window. If you’re in the field, anything can happen, and that rule applies to this team, too.

As Wade has said in the past, success in the Big Dance is largely matchup driven. With that in mind, let’s take another look at the fighting Sean Millers:

Texas

KenPom rating: 37th overall, 13th offensive rating, 112th defensive rating

BartTorvik rating: 45th overall, 21st offensive rating, 121st defensive rating

EvanMiya rating: 35th overall, 17th offensive rating, 95th defensive rating

If you pull up State’s finish to the year on Bart Torvik's game score chart, you’ll see this:

If you pull up Texas’s finish to the year on Bart Torvik's game score chart, you’ll see this:

They’re kinda the same picture.

Texas finished the year losing 5 of 6, including by 10 to an Ole Miss team that State waxed up and down the floor. Unfortunately, State hasn’t exactly lit the world on fire over the last 8 weeks either.

I’d like to sit here and tell you that State is a completely different team than it was when it played Texas in Maui. Alec’s article from November on the Hawaii trip chronicled a few main breakdowns we saw defensively:

• Lack of communication with switches and rotations 

• State setting its defense coming out of transition possessions 

• Personnel not really fitting the system Wade is trying to run

…yeah, so not much has changed there.

These are two teams that have been able to score the basketball at will, who turn around on the defensive end and do their best impressions of a sieve. Both teams give up bottom ~70 type production from 3 defensively, and both are in the “bleh” zone for effective field goal rate allowed (Texas at 170th nationally, State 260th.)

I will be closely watching the extra possession battle in this one. If you’ve grown tired of watching State struggle on the glass, I’ve got bad news for you. Texas is 34th national in offensive rebound rate. State somehow won the OREB battle in game one, 8-6, which I wouldn’t project to happen again.

On the other hand, Texas is nearly dead last nationally in turnovers forced. They’re also in the 300’s nationally in opponent free throw rate. Quadir feasted against Texas in November, getting to the line ten times and posting a 6:2 assist to turnover ratio. We’re going to need more of that, and less of the 16/32 from three that we saw from the Longhorns last time, including a 7/13 performance from a 37% three point shooter, and a 3/5 line from a 24% three point shooter. 

This is a game that N.C. State should win. Texas is somehow playing worse than State is to finish the year, and I would imagine this senior laden group that boasted the most NCAA minutes in the ACC at the start of the year knows what’s required of the moment.

The lingering stat / idea / metric rattling in my head right now is where State sits in EvanMiya’s opponent adjustment rankings. They are dead last in how they perform playing higher competition vs. lower level competition. When you add that to a team profile that includes poor defense, a late game skid, and the fact that this group wasn’t expecting to play in Dayton at all…I’ve got my doubts about this one.

But hey, it’s March. Why not us, right? Right...?