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The ACC looked at State's schedule and said "How does 'longest trip of the year' without a bye in week 8 sound?" Great! 🥴
State flew to Berkeley this week with a 3-4 record. Goals off the table. Facing a Cal team that could easily have been 6-0 entering Saturday. I would have understood if the Pack just didn't have it this week.
And what do you know folks: that's your most impressive performance of the year (so far.)
Rallying from a 13 point fourth quarter deficit largely on the shoulders of young talent, this team put its foot down and finally made the game ending plays when it needed to. Cal cashed in some fortuitous bounces that shouldn't have happened, and instead of rolling over, State punched back hard.
I don't think this team is very good. But I do think this team is taking its lumps and earnestly trying to get better. With where this season is, that's all you can ask for.
The Give and Take of Variance
Watching Cal miss a chip shot kick with their back up kicker invoked a lot of "How lucky!" online. I'm not going to dispute that, but it was nice to have our good friend Variance do us a solid for once.
Yes, State did recover a fumble in the first half, but they also had a pretty brutal set of luck swing against them elsewhere:
Cal's kicker missing a kick in the first half on a play blown dead by a Cal penalty, that then allowed him to make the second, longer kick. Woof.
Noah's "fumble" that was very clearly not a catch, but "was ruled a fumble so I guess we won't overturn that"
Jalen Coit - who has never muffed a punt - gets hit with a gust of wind that causes him to lose the kick, resulting in a Cal possession that starts at State's 16.
My point here - never apologize for a win. Cal had their fair share of beneficial weirdness. Take the win, go home, and build off of this.
C.J. Developing His Clutch Gene
Have yourself a damn day, CJ Bailey.
Cal is a tough prep. They throw a ton of looks at you, and their secondary in particular is disciplined and sound in their play. The post snap look you're going to get from this secondary is going to require processing, especially when you're an 18 year old making his second road start.
For perspective, Cal's defense had boasted a 5 TD/13 INT rate against opposing quarterbacks this year.
They were fresh off of doing this to likely ACC freshman of the year, Pitt's Eli Holstein:
How would CJB fare? Not too shabby:
25/36 for 306 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs
77.4/100 QBR (highest of his career by 13 points)
81.4/100 PFF Grade (career high)
4 "Big Time Throws" - he entered Saturday with 4 this year so far
8.6 yard Average Depth of Target
The biggest of them all: leading two fourth quarter touchdown drives, on the road, as a ten point underdog...for the win.
He had one of the better performances of the week in college football:
It wasn't always pretty - we'll get to that in a second - but these are the types of moments you're looking for from him.
It does not require a degree in rocket science to understand that State's been at its best with Dave Doeren when they've had talented, dependable quarterback play. Seeing the week to week growth we've seen from him - and seeing it result in a win - is massive in our evaluation of him. Alec did a great job digging into the details of Bailey's play here.
Was he perfect? Absolutely not.
Early on, C.J. Bailey looked like a true freshman quarterback. His completion percentage was healthy at the half (11/13) but you saw the hesitancy to let it fly that has been there all year. We saw this on his dropbacks - where he frequently scrambled or checked down - but also on the newly popular read option, where he kept far too many balls that resulted in little or no gain.
State's offensive line was good in pass protection Saturday. They yielded just 8 total pressures on 46 drop backs. A 17% pressure rate is really good. They were credited with just 2 of Cal's 6 sacks from PFF, meaning CJB got himself into some trouble on plays like this one:
The point here is that C.J. isn't finished with his development in any way. I think back to a guy like Devin Leary who was frankly terrible as a true freshman - and we saw the jump he made after ~12 starts when he exploded in 2021.
Devin Leary's game winning drive at Pitt in 2020 is iconic. That back shoulder to Emeka Emezie showed us something. In the future, will we look at C.J. running down the sideline to celebrate with Hollywood Smothers the same way?
I hope so.
Players Make Plays
On paper, this team has serious talent. That's what's so frustrating about this group and this year! State was so close against Wake and Syracuse - if one or two guys make one or two plays, you're winning those football games.
You got your one or two plays on Saturday from some of State's Dudes.
Justin Joly is a professional football player, likely sooner rather than later. He's got wide receiver ability in a tight end frame, is State's most reliable downfield threat right now, and is a 1st down (18 this year) and missed tackle (9) machine. 4 catches on 98 yards Saturday, and every single on mattered. Why isn't this staff trying to force feed this guy?
Daylan Smothers has shown juice in both inside and outside zone runs, but over the last two weeks, his damage has been done through the air - he's caught 9 passes for 174 yards and two touchdowns, with longs of 74 and 41 yards. Those are the game breaking plays this offense has been searching for.
Defensively, we've been asking all season where State's returning guys are. Davin Vann didn't have his best game, but when it counted, he flipped the switch:
He also forced and recovered a fumble that wasn't reviewed. The officiating on Saturday, yet again, was suspicious.
State got what it needed from its leaders on Saturday, and it will certainly need that type of play against the likes of Duke and Georgia Tech if they want to win those games.
Defensive Bounce Back
I will readily admit that I thought the Pack was cooked when I saw this picture on my television screen:
Finally, a time where being wrong has paid off!
After their first scoring drive, Cal only averaged 4.78 yards per play, which is a healthy number for a defense. State also limited Cal to 4-18 on "money" downs (3rd and 4th) forcing them off the field frequently.
State was able to get to Mendoza frequently with a 28% pressure rate, and they kept Cal in check with a 3% explosive play rate.
Even more impressive is the list of dudes that are meaningfully contributing:
Isaiah Crowell started at Nickel and finished with the highest PFF Grade on the team in 31 snaps
CB Jackson Vick played his first meaningful snaps of the year and had a clutch fourth down tackle in the 1st quarter
R-FR Kamal Bonner had an up and down day, but had 2 QB pressures and 8 total tackles
When you add in the production you're getting from guys like Isaiah Shirley, DJ Jackson, and Tamarcus Cooley, you're seeing a young nucleus of talent on defense that is really starting to emerge. This is good stuff as State tries to get hot to end the year, and even more important when thinking about '25.
Good and Bad from the Staff
At this point, I have to sadly nod along with the silliness I see from this staff, particularly on the offensive side of the football.
I will give them credit for stripping out the K.C. nonsense around the line of scrimmage. He had 4 for 53, a rushing touchdown, and a long pass on a trick play. Improvement!
Our weekly "wtf" for me this week was the C.J. ground game stuff in the first half. C.J. has not shown himself to be a decisive runner, or someone who feels comfortable in zone reads (see the Clemson game for more.) C.J. had more designed runs in the first half than the running back room.
I'm still struggling with who is coming in and how they're being asked to contribute. We're seeing guys like Justin Joly do what he's doing, and we're somehow only dialing up 6 targets for him on a weekly basis. The identity of the offense is still TBD.
It's nothing we haven't already mentioned, but it (amongst other things) is why we'll see this program move in another direction offensively after this season wraps up.
Had to Have It
Let's face it - the idea of watching a 6-6 N.C. State team play in a bowl is nauseating considering preseason expectations. But it's huge for this group of players.
The rest of this season is built for evaluation. What do you have that you're confident in? What do you have that you're not? I would imagine Dave already knows the types of staff changes he's going to have to make this offseason, and it's vital that he knows what he can or cannot build around from a personnel perspective to match.
To that end, barring significant regression, you've seen that C.J. Bailey can be your guy moving forward - of course he'll need continued development in the offseason; that's what it's for.
Giving CJB a chance to practice, study, and play alongside the young core of this offense - Hollywood, Noah, Terrell Anderson, Keenan Jackson - is how you set the table for a bounce back 2025. This is not based on any hard information, but I would be shocked if K.C. or Justin Joly were here next year given what their offseason options will look like. Never say never, of course.
In a perfect world, State can make one of the early calendar date bowls - that gives this program the extra practices and reps from bowl season, and also gives you more time to evaluate coaching and transfer portal changes.
Bye Week Time
Does beating Cal transform your season? Ehhh. Does 4-4 feel infinitely better than 3-5 as you enter your bye week? Absolutely.
This team has two weeks to heal up, self-scout, and practice. Instead of a 3 game losing streak and sub .500 record, you have an epic comeback win across the country as the backdrop for the work you're putting in.
I don't know if State will finish strong or if they'll make a bowl. I do know that this game will set the foundation for whatever success State has the rest of the way, and it's a huge positive data point for the evaluation of how this team might fit together in the years to come.
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