Game Analysis: NC State Survives Western Carolina

Well, football is back, and with it a harrowing reminder that nothing matters until you’re between the white lines. A much hyped State team delivered quite a tight performance for about three quarters on Thursday night, eventually having to survive Western Carolina. It was not the opener you expected to see. 

There was a point late in the third quarter where I actually really started to believe that State was going to lose this game, so with that being the context, I’m mostly just relieved by a 17-point win. It was ugly, but it still could have been worse. State needs to be better than this, no doubt, and we’ll get to that. But first, let's clarify something. We're here to talk about this football game. We can discuss implications of it, but what we're not going to do is make sweeping judgements about the whole season from one football game. I hate it when people do this, so please walk with me through some criticisms without calling the season after one game. Thank you much.

One more side note, apologies for some of the garbage quality video in here. I couldn't get some of plays on the screen recorder and had to film them from my phone.

The Good 

I thought the backs were really solid in this game. There were a couple instances in the first half with Waters where you would have liked to see him break a tackle in space, but he made up for it later in the game. I thought his decision making was as advertised. This is a heck of a run.

Raphael and Smothers both looked ready as well. One of my critiques of Raphael last season was that I thought he lacked patience. He was almost too vertical of a runner, trying to cut backside too quickly. He and Smothers both looked the part in this game. Seeing running backs read blocking well was just a beautiful sight after last season. This was a high point in this game. 

The receivers were also as advertised. State got what it wanted here I think. The prediction that KC and Joly are one and two in catches is off to a good start. Concepcion is just uncoverable, but the rest of the group showed some ability to separate that you lacked last year. Rogers’ body control was on display on a couple different explosive catches including the back shoulder catch in the first quarter (correction: this was Wesley Grimes). He’s the full package. KC, Rogers, and Joly is a pretty terrifying top three, and it’s easily going to be one of the best in the ACC. This doesn't count as a sweeping judgement because I said it before the season.

The Bad

The run blocking was very bad in the first half of this game. The offensive line was underwhelming in the first half, and the tight ends really had a rough go of it. It was a disappointing start for a group that played so well at the end of last year. That doesn't mean every player was bad of course, but there were issues, moreso with the tight ends than anything else.

From a scheme standpoint, inside zone was the leading play call, and there was some counter and some outside zone as well. The amount of penetration that the unit allowed on all of these plays was catastrophic to the run game. It was nearly every play in the first two frames. Here are three examples from the first half, but there were more than three. 

Inside zone on 3rd and 1

Correll at center gives up penetration through the play side A gap, forcing the run to bend back side. Inside zone in general can definitely survive this, but Matt McCabe loses the edge trying to wash down 11, and the play is forced right into 11's lap. Carter and Belton do a great job here, but it only takes one big loss to derail the play. There was nothing Smothers could do with this.

GT Counter

McCabe gives up penetration on the down block, and it disrupts Peak as the wrapper. Maybe Waters could have gotten away from that DB and turned the corner if he stayed on his feet, but regardless, this can't happen. Pullers on counter are always going to be tight to the butt of the rest of the linemen. They want the quickest path to the point of attack. It's imperative that the down blockers here don't allow penetration or knockbacks, lest you get disruption that lengthens the development of the play and sometimes short-circuits the whole thing.

Split inside zone on 4th and 1

Isaiah Shirley gives up a lot of penetration here and McKay also loses badly. State could just not keep guys out of the backfield in the ground game.

We’re going to talk about Grayson McCall in a second, and he was the headline for a lot of people, but this was frustrating. I thought McCabe and McKay took the brunt of it. Neither had a great game. 

Now, two things are also true here. Pass protection was pretty good. This goes for the line and the backs. There were a couple really nice blitz pickups from the backs, and McCall's jersey was pretty clean all night. Secondly, I thought the run blocking improved in the second half. This was the split flow inside zone play that busted open in the fourth quarter. This is really well blocked.

State needs to give up less penetration, and it did as the game went on. I think you may have some things to sort out at tight end, but we'll see how this develops.

At quarterback, Grayson McCall did not really look like himself. As a signal caller renowned for his accuracy, he did not live up to the billing in game one. There was a lot for the taking too. He wasn't terrible, but McCall just could not find it consistently on Thursday. 

This is a glance RPO, something he’s thrown a gazillion times, and he’s just not really close.

It was honestly kind of bizarre. Apex player stays low so he pulls the ball, pretty elementary stuff for him, and he just misses.

This miss took points off the board. 

What burned about this one is that it was really well done right up until the throw. It didn't make it on the broadcast, but it showed in the stands that McCall got the blitz to out itself here with the hard count. You can see the offensive line calling it out. McCall knows he's likely got a cover 1 look here, and he actually looks off the safety before coming back to KC on the glance route. This is good stuff (and a really solid blitz pick up from the back, who IDs the most immediate threat, gets to it, and then gets back to number two when Belton picks up the first pressure.) Everything went really well here, and then the throw was just bad.

Now this was a very nice throw that started to set things in motion for a dominant fourth quarter. This is a play State ran for Armstrong a few times last year, just a sail concept with a QB run out. 

The read is number 0, and McCall catches him staying shallow on the underneath and drops it in to the second level. Great hi-lo look. It was really up and down at quarterback, and State will need more up and less down next week.

Defensively, I thought the State was fine. If there is an area where you expected Western to be able to do some things, it was through the air. This team can definitely throw the ball around a little bit, and their offense from a scheme and execution standpoint was really solid. There are obviously some things to clean up, but the defense essentially gave up 14 points, and I can live with that. 

In the early stages of the fourth quarter, it was Davin Vann who seemed to embrace a leadership role. In a completely dead stadium full of people mostly in shock, Vann really brought the energy and made a couple big plays on his own including a sack on a three-man rush. Your stars need to be your stars, and I think you got that from Vann, KC, and Waters. These guys deserve the helmet stickers for this one. 

Final Thoughts

What I was hoping to see on Thursday night was a team that was ready to go. This team is so old on offense. There is so much experience that you hoped some early season grace period to get the ball rolling wasn't going to be necessary, especially given the ceiling on this season. That wasn't really what you got. State was sloppy in the first half, fumbling three times among other things. It really had some issues in the run game and McCall was just super inconsistent.

It was definitely a clunker for three quarters, but State really got to manhandling in the fourth quarter, and it was enough to make it look better than it was. I'm going to remain optimistic on some of the struggling areas because you've seen it. There is way too much tape on McCall to think he's just an inconsistent quarterback. That ain't who he is. State obviously needs to be better, but one game does not a team make. There are a lot of examples of this in recent college football history, so let's cool the jets on any freak outs and wait until the sample size grows. We'll learn a lot more next week.