If NC State doesn't get their act together, they will miss the NCAA Tournament

Everyone is aware of the bold proclamations that NC State basketball coach Will Wade made when he was hired. Promises were made. Winning, and winning fast, along with a declaration of making the NCAA tournament in year 1. Technically, the team has won more games than they've lost, but the latter part of that promise is at risk unless a big shift is quickly made.

On the last episode of the Lotcast, I laid out the likely path for the Wolfpack to comfortably make the NCAA tournament. Let's break it down.

NC State finished the non-conference portion of their schedule at 9-4, with key wins over: Quad 1: Boise State

Quad 2: VCU, Ole Miss

(end of list)

Not a very impressive list, huh? The only Quad 1 win (as of today's NET rankings) is Boise State.

The key story will be the missed opportunities. Here are all the quality opponents non-conference NC State has played and lost to so far:

Quad 1: Seton Hall, Auburn, Kansas

Quad 2: Texas

I'm not even going to bother listing Q3 and Q4 games. NC State is undefeated in those games, and it HAS to stay that way. A bad loss against that level of opponent would be a stain on an already troubled resume.

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Now, we shift focus towards the ACC. Going into ACC play, I felt that NC needed to win 12 games, which would make them finish 12-6 in conference. Based on historical record, this would land them somewhere between 5th-8th in conference standings.

The old Wolfpack favorite record of finishing .500 in the ACC won’t cut it this year. I think the ACC will comfortably get 6 NCAA bids this year, but that could flex up to 9 or so, which means the above final standing would put the Wolfpack squarely on the bubble. What else is new?

As of today, 6 ACC games will be played against ranked teams:

vs #21 UVA

@ #24 SMU

@ #20 Louisville

vs #17 UNC

@ #21 UVA

vs #6 Duke

Okay, then what's the path through this list to finish 12-6?

As it stands today, I’d chalk Duke and Louisville as losses. The Cardinals dipped down a bit recently, but have obviously rebounded since they just gave the Blue Devils a scare last night. So, that already leaves NC State needing to go 12-4 the rest of the way. Losing against these two strong teams, or any others, shrinks the already thin margin for error even tighter.

They're playing two against UVA and one against UNC, the Pack need to go 2-1 with those. Picking up that loss to UVA already was potentially devastating, likely making the other two matchups must-win games.

The game at SMU may not be a "must win", but it is a very necessary win.

That means in those 6 ranked games, they probably have to go 3-3.

But that means for the WHOLE REST of the schedule, they have to go 9-3.

If this comes to pass, NC State would notch ranked (also Quad 1) wins against:

@ SMU

vs UNC

@ UVA

And ranked losses against:

vs UVA

vs Duke

@ Louisville

As the kids say, "the math ain't mathing". Or is it mathin'? I'm old. Anyway...You need to notch more quality wins, and have a minuscule margin for slip-ups in all the other games, given how the non-con schedule went.

Remaining Quad 1 games vs currently unranked ACC opponents:

@ Clemson

@ Wake Forest (the previously played home game was Q2)

@ Notre Dame

At this point, based on the previously noted ranked opponents, NC State can not afford to lose to more than one of these three unranked Q1 teams. While they won't count as bad losses, they're the lowest-hanging fruit remaining to gain Quad 1 wins to bolster the NCAA resume.

If all that goes to plan, NC State's Quad 1 resume in ACC play would be 5-4. Adding in Boise State, this would likely be enough to help the NCAA at-large resume. Getting 6 Quad 1 wins sounds pretty good, right? Well, this is all still assuming the previous statement of finishing 12-6 comes true. That presents a new challenge. Remember what I said about thin margins for error?

If the goal is finishing 12-6 (or better), and they've gone 5-4 in Quad 1 opportunities, that means the Pack can afford to lose NO MORE THAN TWO of the following games:

Quad 2:

@ FSU

@ Pitt

vs VT

vs Miami

vs Stanford

Quad 3:

@ BC (see below)

vs GT

vs Syracuse

Based on what you've seen with this NC State team to date, what's your confidence level they can navigate this Q2/Q3 section of the schedule with nearly flawless precision?

The timing of the schedule works against the Wolfpack as well. The average quality of the ACC has leveled up this season, and the schedule is weighted in the back half. After playing Syracuse on 1/27, all remaining games are either Quad 1 or 2, and 5 out of the last 7 are Quad 1, with 4 of them happening in a row.

NC State did beat Boston College last night, so they avoided a bad loss. However, it was by only 8 points and the metrics would have taken a bigger jump if it was by 10 or more. I don't make the rules, and the Pack did not help themselves by allowing BC to stay in the game for much longer than they should have. This trend has been ongoing, and does not bode well for the remainder of the season, much like the continuing tradition of allowing an opponent to have a career night. Last night, it was BC's Fred Payne. Or, pain, I should say.

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After all the promises were made of the Red Reckoning, the funding committed, and the fan expectations, not making the NCAA tournament would be an outright disaster. Beyond that, it would just be embarrassing.

Take Bracketology with all the grains of salt, but both ESPN's Joe Lunardi and The Athletic currently have NC State listed as an 11 seed, part of the "last four in" and playing in Dayton. That would not be fun.

Duke continues to fly high, and UNC has rebounded from their downturn. There's no specific reason that NC State can't succeed; their success isn't related to what Duke or UNC are doing, regardless of national media opinion. But actually executing and stacking those wins continues to be the challenge, regardless of who's coaching NC State.

It is not impossible to thread the needles laid out above. But the challenge level is extremely high. Will Wade and co. will need to earn their paychecks in order to make this happen, because fan confidence is dipping with each passing loss. And the numbers continue to work against you with each missed opportunity.

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With all that being said, I'd like to introduce the NC State Quad Win Tracker. I'll be updating this as the season progresses to see how well the projected wins line up with the actual results: