Narratives, Darrion Williams, and the Opportunity Ahead

Happy New Year, folks!

One of the most consistent N.C. State related jokes I dealt with over the holidays was “How is the Red Reckoning going?" What a masterclass in comedy.

I can understand where the digging comes from. State didn’t land a high profile win in its non-conference schedule, did its best impression of a defensive sieve on a national stage in Maui, and came up one point short against Kansas in a home sellout. That's not creating any early believers, certainly outside of the N.C. State fan base.

My response to this was almost always a laugh. I also laugh at narratives like this one, that are being conjured seemingly out of nowhere by national media types that were quick to hype up N.C. State in the preseason: 

https://x.com/JonRothstein/status/2006440276668330130

The irony in Jon’s tweet is if we simulate the season out from where we are today, State would finish 12-6 in the ACC according to Barttorvik.com. And they would be a projected 6 seed in the NCAA tournament. That would be State’s best NCAA tournament seed in over two decades. 

Did you read that last sentence? 

With State’s win against top 60 Wake Forest on Saturday, the Pack rose to 24th in Kenpom and 22nd in BartTorvik’s ratings. Against Wake, State continued to build off of the defensive improvement that was sorely needed to start the year. 

State has done a phenomenal job of walling off the paint and forcing the opposition to take mostly uncomfortable threes. Wake took its 3rd fewest number of two point shots on the year, resulting in a measly 25.8% from three that was inflated by some last minute makes.

If we look at what State has done since the start of the Ole Miss game on December 10th, State is number two nationally in defensive efficiency, and fifth in the entire country on overall performance (small sample size granted, of course.)  We need to see this kind of effort against better competition, but it’s hard to overstate what kind of improvement we’ve seen compared to late November, when State was 190th nationally in defensive efficiency. 

I can continue to heap good numbers and data points on you, but you’re getting the picture: this is a good basketball team that has seen dramatic improvement thanks to its flexibility in approach. 

It’s possible that this team is really good, and that’s without everyone hitting their ceiling right now, particularly on offense. State is 58th nationally in offensive efficiency since that Liberty game, and I see one big opportunity to get things rolling again. 

State’s Ceiling Lies with Darrion 

Undeniably a part of State getting back to its offensive ceiling is getting the scoring switch flipped back on for Darrion Williams.

Darrion’s shooting has taken a major step back since the Texas contest: he’s shooting 33% from the field and 26% from three in his last seven games. Will Wade talked about the severity of the shoulder injury he sustained in Maui yesterday for the first time, and while I’m skeptical of coach speak in general, it does sound like a legitimate injury that’s impacted Darrion’s play: 

“Let me be clear about this. His shoulder injury was really bad. Most kids making the money he would, would have shut it down for five games. He laid it on the line for NC State for five games with a shitty shoulder.”

There’s a lot of hand-wringing about Darrion’s performance so far this year, and I get it. He’s the crown jewel of Wade’s first team, the preseason ACC Player of the Year, and someone who reportedly commanded a healthy compensation package to play in Raleigh (as he would have anywhere else.)

As Wade talked about yesterday in his rant - which we’ll address in a minute - Darrion is still impacting the game when he’s not scoring. Despite his slump, he’s still a top 16 ACC player in Bart Torvik’s Points over Replacement metric, and is 43rd nationally in Evan Miya’s Bayesian Performance Rating - phrases with big words that point to on the court impact, inclusive of shooting. He’s impactful even when he’s not making shots. Over his last five games, his assist rate and defensive rebounding rate are in the 98th and 92nd percentiles, respectively.

In absence of his scoring, we’ve seen others step up. All Paul McNeil did a couple weeks back was set a new program record for 3’s made in a game. Quadir Copeland is playing at an absolutely insane level as the bus driver of the offense, while Ven-Allen Lubin’s efficiency around the rim has come back as he’s becoming more comfortable with how State is getting him the basketball. 

Darrion is still a very good player, and I believe in things normalizing over long periods of time. If Darrion’s numbers return closer to his career mean, and he has more time to get back to health, he’s going to be a key piece to State winning a lot of games in the ACC this year. Obviously, as we heard yesterday, his coach agreed. 

I Have Zero Problems with Wade’s Comments 

I was genuinely surprised to see so many State fans on social media upset by Wade’s comments. Wade’s fiery personality is part of the package. This is an intelligent and calculating coach who understands time and place. He knows who is listening when he speaks, and how to use moments like these to further his goals. 

We’ve heard him use his pressers as an opportunity to send messages already this year, and I’m sure he would have found a way to make his point with or without a direct question about Darrion. This was very clearly an opportunity for him to get his point across that he’s got his guy’s back. 

I have no problem with Wade getting in front of a mic and speaking passionately. I have no problem with him cursing. I have no problem with what we heard from him yesterday, especially in the context of him defending a key piece of his team. This wasn’t a personal attack on anyone, this was a coach standing up for his guy. Frankly, I love that. 

A common cry from this fan base during the coaching search was finding a leader that could match their energy, for sticking up for them as the “disrespected” or overlooked program in Triangle. Is that not what we just saw from Coach? 

How this became the talking point instead of a nice win over an in-state, ACC opponent is frustrating, but fortunately we won’t be talking about it for long. 

A Second Opportunity to Launch 

State now stares down a January that offers plenty of opportunity to relaunch the Reckoning. State will play 8 games this month, 7 of which they will be favored in. 

Playing Virginia at home is no longer a Quad 1 win (for now) but taking on the Hoos and going to Clemson and Wake Forest later in the month give State three Q1 + Q2 contests that will have major impacts on the ACC standings. 

Wedged in between those contests are 3 road games against teams outside of the top 90 in most metrics with Pitt, Florida State, and Boston College. You also get Georgia Tech and Syracuse at home, where State will likely be double digit favorites.

The ACC is much improved this year, so asking State to go 7-1 in league play to start 2026 isn’t an easy request. But talk about an opportunity to punch back on the narrative that State is underachieving. Wrapping up January with an 8-1 ACC record and an 18-5 mark would put State at the top of the ACC and, probably, into the AP top 20.

With what it’s done defensively, and what State can still tap into with improvement from Darrion, there's a lot to be excited about. The best is yet to come with this group.