It's Time To Make a Change

Some losses as a fan mean just a little bit more. A missed opportunity to take a next step as a program in a big game. A self-inflicted defeat stemming from mistakes (ahem, Duke.) A blowout loss that hurts, but hey, there's a sizable talent gap in college football. It happens.

Then there's losses like this: where you can feel a tangible, negative shift in where a season - and program - might be going. One that feels like the beginning of the end.

N.C. State was not projected to factor into the ACC race this year. Expectations, for the most part, were not high; hell, I picked a 7-5 record in the preseason. In any case, there's no world where losing at home as a double digit favorite to a team without its head coach and a bevy of important players is acceptable.

The fashion in which State lost this one made it even worse. This program is built on Hard, Tough, Together. But in the thirteenth year of Dave Doeren's tenure, State didn't show many of those characteristics. Man handled at the line of scrimmage, missing tackles, looking tentative in decision making. I didn't recognize the program on the field Saturday.

Yes, you got out worked at home against a team that legitimately quit on its coach two weeks ago. In a 19 point home loss to Old Dominion.

I am an optimist at heart. I certainly don't want to live life looking for the negatives in one of the things I hold most dear in State sports. There are games to be played and State will probably win another game they shouldn't (just like Virginia Tech snagged one on Saturday.)

But this is the kind of belief-breaking loss that sticks with a fanbase, and perhaps with an athletic department. It certainly makes me see things differently.

I'm thankful for what Dave has given this program, and yet we're sitting at an inflection point. I don't believe you come back from this.

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Prayers for the Eliot Family

I have to start with acknowledging the unspeakable tragedy of defensive coordinator D.J. Eliot losing his daughter to cancer this week. These are the types of struggles we might not always see that puts football in perspective. I can't fathom the pain. I'm not sure how D.J. has shown up to work the last nine months and done his job; I don't think I'd be able to do anything in those circumstances.

Every week we're analyzing blocking technique, the timing of throws, rush lane integrity, so many things that are hyper focused on production and what these athletes are doing as football players. But these are human beings who have real lives and emotions and responsibilities outside of the game of football.

I can only imagine how heavy this week must have been for everybody inside of the Murphy Center, and I pray the Eliots find peace over time.

You can ​donate to a fund ​in Drue's name at the Philadelphia Children's Hospital if you feel so inclined.

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The Game

Given everything we've seen so far from the defense this year, an emotional week, the absence of your Defensive Coordinator - we got a performance that makes a lot of sense, unfortunately.

Missed tackles on missed tackles; officially 14 from PFF, which seems far too low, but is the season high for this unit. Blowing basic coverage rules. They seemed unwilling to hit a running back who had just 11 carries on the year to date. Terion Stewart finished with 174 yards on 15 carries for the Hokies, against a defense that had largely been good stopping the run down to down.

State's passing defense wasn't awful when it was following basic coverage rules, but accomplishing that was, again, a struggle. There was technically pressure on QB Kyron Drones, but it wasn't super impactful or timely in the way that you hope for.

More injuries piled up in places they can't afford to. Brody Barnhardt didn't return after an injury, Sean Brown also went off unable to put weight on his foot. Depth and talent level, already at a deficit on this side of the ball, continues to dwindle.

But focusing on just this contest: if you told me entering this game that State would surrender 23 points, I'd take that in a heartbeat. That wasn't the issue.

Saturday's blame lies at the feet of a truly befuddling performance from this offense.

Rewind to last week: the silver lining from the Duke loss was the idea that roughly 5 plays cost you the game. Against VT, there weren't a handful of catastrophic yet fixable mistakes. It was consistent ineptitude and lack of execution that made you wonder if the silver linings from the first four weeks were ever real at all. Down to down, this group struggled in a scary way.

I didn't like what I saw from the offensive line this week. Virginia Tech applied enough pressure to make C.J. uncomfortable, and while they did a great job wrapping up Hollywood on first contact, it didn't look like this group was as consistent in generating push up front. Credit the Hokies for staying locked in and bringing the fight amidst tough circumstances, but you should not lose the line of scrimmage to this group.

Smothers finished with 16 carries for 67 yards, and a long run of 11. That isn't good enough.

From a passing perspective, C.J.'s line looks fine at first glance. When you watch how he got there, it's rough. Particularly in the second half, he had pass catchers running open, and just didn't turn the ball loose. He was sacked five times, and depending on how you grade it, three to four of those were due to Bailey's poor decision making.

It makes sense that C.J. would over-index on last week's four turnover outing, but this offense has pass catchers running free on almost every single called pass play. This is truly a special group of skill talent, and in yet another game we're talking about not taking full advantage of it.

This was a definitive "less than the sum of its parts" performance from this unit. State's got damn good players on this side of the ball that will be playing on Sundays. 21 points on 10 possessions against this Virginia Tech defense is unacceptable.

Unacceptable.

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Time for a Change...But It's Only the Beginning

I have long been a Dave Doeren supporter.

To me, much of the criticism he receives lacks historical perspective on what N.C. State football has been, the resources it has to compete, and what I believe are realistic expectations.

"Yes, and." Many things can be true at the same time. In my opinion, it's time for something different.

Dave is the CEO. Everything that happens within this program rolls up to him at the end of the day, even with some of it being out of his control. The results of the last two weeks are on him. Roster construction and the lack of talent on defense is on him. How State operates, markets itself, and builds its roster is his responsibility.

I can't walk away from Saturday and feel anything but doubt about this season, and the cascading effects that will have for this offseason and beyond. It's clear that the fan base is over it - walking out of Carter-Finley, the mood was as sour as I can remember. I have concerns about what fundraising might look like moving forward. All of it together presents a messy situation.

I don't think it should come mid season - I don't see the point - but at the end of the year, it's time to go in a different direction.

The problem, though: if State does decide to part ways with Dave, you've only arranged the smallest part of the puzzle. What the program does next determines if this is short term window dressing, or a long term repositioning of the program.

N.C. State has not been a .500 type program just because of its coaching hires. As Bill Connelly wrote many years ago:

"When you find yourself stuck with a coach who is good but not good enough, the problem often isn't him. It's infrastructure. It's history. It's program support. It's something other than the head coach. But the head coach is the easiest thing to change, so schools follow the same fruitless road over and over and over again."

In other words, be careful what you wish for.

This university has to look itself in the mirror and decide if it really wants to play football at the highest level. You cannot afford to cycle coaches in and out with little change elsewhere and expect major differences in results.

N.C. State has won ten games twice in its history as a non JV team. These issues extend far past coaching.

We'll need the right guy for the job, but we'll need serious financial commitment beyond what we have today.

We'll need to modernize the "front office" and how this program evaluates and prioritizes high school and transfer portal recruiting.

Will Wade is doing something special with Wolfpack basketball, but that takes resources, and the price of admission to being competitive with football and basketball is totally different. Can State really assemble the collection of coaching, front office, NIL funding, and other resources to make a significant step forward?

I'm not sure, but it has to happen for us to meaningfully adjust expectations as fans. And we're a ways away. This table comes from Virginia Tech's Athletic Director, pointing out how far behind they are as a department from an athletic spend perspective, and hey! Look who's next door:

This accounts for all spending and isn't just football specific, but you see where State sits. State's 30-50% behind the biggest names in the conference. I don't expect State to be in that range year in and year out, but expecting top half results with bottom third spending does not work.

Yes, I'm at a place where I feel like moving on from Dave is the right move, but that decision marks the end of the beginning. There is so much more that will have to happen from there.

We've heard new chancellor Kevin Howell is a huge proponent of sports and wants State to compete at a high level. Can he and other leadership entice new donors to jump in and support the buildout of an elevated N.C. State program? Time will tell.

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There will be more time after the season to do a deep dive on all of these interconnected program topics, but I'll finish my thoughts here.

Last week, I took this picture in Wallace-Wade Stadium before kick:

This week, I took this picture in Carter-Finley Stadium before kick:

Come on, man.

This is the best football environment in the State. The area around the Carter will continue to evolve and grow into something special as Will Wade wins and the Hurricanes develop the area.

There are ingredients here for State to build something special, but it's not an easy proposition. I hope the powers-that-be determine it's a worthwhile one.