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NC State Basketball Quad Wins Tracker - 2/8/26 - Can the Pack thread the needle?

WELCOME BACK TO THE NC STATE MEN'S BASKETBALL QUAD TRACKER EXTRAORDINAIRE!


Our last update was after the comeback Quad 1 win, as hairy as it was down the stretch, at SMU. Since then, NC State played one additional ACC game:


  • vs Virginia Tech, Q2 win, 82-73


Recap:


  • NC State had a very workmanlike win against a very strong VT team.

  • You can't just have nights where it explodes offensively, you sometimes have to grind out games against teams that refuse to go away. NC State was nursing a 10 point lead for most of the second half and VT cut it to three. Then State very casually grows it back to ten. Absorbing that run without gettling flustered and then responding is the mark of a very very good team. They even have the makings of being elite, but we'll save that for after the Louisville game.

  • We were concerned that VT would be a trap game, as State hasn't played the best at home, and the game against SMU was quite emotional. I'd bet the extra few days off to settle back down helped.

  • Because of this, I had previously marked down Virginia Tech as a projected loss. Weeks ago, I had predicted a late season 3 game swoon for NC State. My reason being, I thought VT would be a tough trap game, then going to play at Louisville in a tough environment, then having to play a scrappy Miami team that's surprising a lot of people. NC State is step 1 in proving me wrong. I would love to be wrong about all predicted losses moving forward if that's how they want to play it.

  • As noted, NC State now has a quick turnaround and plays at #24 Louisville on Monday night. We've had this section of the calendar circled for months, and now we're here. The true test begins for what this team will become.

  • With 4 of the last 7 games vs ranked teams, this is the true crunch time of the year. Can the Wolfpack thread this needle? The potential for true greatness awaits. No pressure.



Let's get to the Quad Tracker update!


Some things have shifted slightly:

  • NC State previous NET ranking: 25th

  • NC State current NET ranking: 27th

  • The Pack won by 9 against a Q2 team and went DOWN by two spots. Meanwhile, VT lost and went UP by two spots. I think the Pack's dip is because of the next point:

  • Liberty slid back down to a Q3 win, they're on that borderline at 79th. This makes NC State lose a quality win from earlier in the year, but added one against VT.

  • Checking in on NC State's worst loss of the year: Quad 3 games at home are counted for teams ranked between 76-160 in the NET. Georgia Tech was previously at 143. Now they're at 151. This means that loss is closer to sliding down to a Quad 4 loss than having any hope of growing to only a Q2 loss. Something to keep an eye on, the wheels haven't fully fallen off for the Yellow Jackets, but they're definitely wobbling.

  • GT is officially the worst NET ranked ACC team.

  • On the flip flip side, while Stanford had previously slid down to 77th in the NET, putting them just into Quad 3 range. Now, the tree-folk are 69 (nice), so that game is back to a Q2 matchup.

  • NC State is now 18-6 (9-2). They are now tied for 2nd in the ACC standings, just one game back from first place.

  • Even if unlikely, it must be said that NC State isn't mathematically eliminated from finishing first in the ACC regular season. They need to win out, but Duke losing to UNC last night opens the window for any of the other teams in the top four of the conference (Clemson, UVA, NC State) to make a run at the top seed in the ACC tournament.

  • Most bracketology metrics have the Wolfpack solidly in, somewhere in the 5-7-seed range.

  • The Pack are on a path now to finish above that magic number of 12 conference goals that I had set as a goal for them to hit. Seven games left on the schedule, with nine wins in hand means they just have to not lose more games than they win and they'll get there.

  • But if they can finish 4-3 down the stretch, notching one additional Q1 win, they'll finish 13-5 in conference, and very likely get a double bye in the ACC tournament. Or finish 5th at worst.

  • At this point, that type of finish would actually be hurtful for the Wolfpack, a punishment for their previous success. The only solution, obviously, is to win out.

  • As said previously, the four remaining Q1 games are against ranked teams. Before, the aim was to get just one to get NC State with the other goal number I'd laid out for them, and that's 4 Q1 wins. But now, the goals are higher.

  • We'll see whether the Wolfpack receive any more votes in the AP poll this week, they've surely earned it. But I can see a scenario where the voters don't see any MARQUEE wins and are waiting to see how they do against #24 Louisville on Monday night.



Let's end with some fun stats that we can enjoy!




And this is just a lovely sight for sore eyes:


Special shout out to the AI slop image today. The clanker went back to the image style from the last time, and I'm not a fan of the Thomas Kinkade-looking ass image, but I can't get it back to the way it was making them previously. Some 1's and 0's must have changed. At least I was to get it to change from option 1 to option 2, below.


Option 1:


Option 2:


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