Opportunity Awaits

State arrived at the halfway mark of the ACC season with a 96-78 shellacking of Wake Forest. This game got kinda close in the second half, but not for long. The average lead in this game was 11.1 points. This team has the ability to activate  “buzzsaw mode” quickly when it gets to the paint with its initiators and feeds it shotmakers, as we saw with another blistering 16-28 three point performance. Outside of Juke Harris, Wake only made 14 shots. State was very good. 

You can prop this result up as an example of what State has found over the last ~month of the season, minus the Georgia Tech result.

Everything with this team starts with Quadir Copeland. This guy enrolled at Syracuse as a member of their front court. Heck, there was even some offseason discussion around him potentially playing as a four man in Raleigh. Q is getting to the paint at will, and for the most part, he’s finishing acrobatic attempts at the rim or finding the open shooter when he attracts help. 

Q’s list of elite numbers is quite long, and it’s not just what he’s doing offensively:

• 95th percentile in True Shooting (impressive for a guy who, historically, can’t shoot!)

• 99th percentile in assist rate, 90th percentile in A/TO ratio 

• 93rd percentile in steal rate, and 63rd percentile as defensive rebounder

• State’s offense per 40 minutes is 9.1 points better with Q on the court, 92nd percentile nationally 

He is the funky, loud straw that stirs the drink. Kinda like those curly ones you thought were cool when you were a kid. The Quadir Copeland experience, ladies and gentlemen:

It’s hard to understate how valuable Q is to this team, and it’s incredible to type that sentence given preseason expectations for him.

A guy who had enough preseason expectations for both of these two is Darrion Williams.  Williams has been a magnet for both criticism and praise. When a high profile athlete plays poorly, it’s difficult to disentangle the primary causes. Was the slump from his Maui injury? Is it a system issue? Is it an off the court problem? Is he actually just not that good? 

Regardless of the right way to split up and attribute his struggles, he seems to have found something in the last few weeks.  In his last four games, his outside shot has returned to a healthy 13 of 28 from three on 7 attempts per game is excellent. After a call from a “family friend” he appears to be more physical and assertive in the post, often backing down defenders or inviting contact on drives vs. some of the mid range stuff he was missing as he returned from injury.

The concern for the rest of the year is how serious Williams’ Achilles injury is. Wade said he could come back in and contribute against Wake, but he wasn't needed. State will not reach its ceiling without Williams continuing his return to form. Fingers crossed he's good to go Tuesday and for the rest of the year.

As for the other member of the big three: Remember Q’s impressive on/off splits? Paul McNeil’s are better. He’s the second leading 3 point taker in the ACC, with the 3rd best make percentage of players with over 50 attempts (#1 and #2 have 51 and 59, respectively.)  He’s pouring it in from three, with the occasional rim opportunity and mid-range shot. He's ultra efficient. Look at how beautiful this shot chart is: 

It's no doubt that Paul's elite trait is his shooting, but he’s not a one tool player. He's in the 80th percentile in block percentage (??), a capable offensive and defensive rebounder, and his foul rate is incredibly low. The fact that Paul gives you rebounding and some defensive disruption with the stress and gravity he’s exerting on defense is massive. Barring something crazy, Paul will be an NBA Draft selection at some point - hopefully it's in 2027 after another huge year in Raleigh.

Giving Q a scoring Darrion, sharpshooting Paul McNeil, and psycho-at-times-but-41%-from-three Tre Holloman creates an incredibly tough proposition for defenses to guard. Sprinkle in Ven-Allen Lubin’s absurd efficiency at the rim, and since the turn of the year, you’re talking about the 12th best offense in the country per Torvik’s adjusted efficiency metric.

Swiping this from Alec’s article on State’s roster construction, look at what the opposing defense sees when they match up with the Pack: 

While it certainly feels good to see State’s stars return to form, I may be more bullish on what’s happening on the opposite end of the bench.

It was only a month ago that Wade was asking for an eighth man from Santa. That was with Alyn Breed solidly in the rotation with ~20 minutes a game. Fast forward to February, and Breed isn’t seeing meaningful minutes, because Wade didn’t get just one contributor for Christmas. He got two.

Matt Able has been on and off all year. You’ve seen the athleticism as a rim-driver at times, and his catch and shoot ability and defensive intensity has come and gone in waves. The freshman moments have also been there, and Wade has called out the need for Able to earn his trust.

It looks as if he's more than done that, averaging 23 minutes per game over the last five, even with Tre Holloman returning from his ankle injury. He’s not done growing by any means, but his improvement as a defender and trimming of mistakes gives State another athlete who can create on his own and make teams pay for helping off of him as a shooter.

Even more exciting than what we’ve seen from Able is the emergence of Terrance Arceneaux. We talked about this extensively on our podcast this week with Brian Geisinger. Arceneaux is more than living up to his preseason expectation as an elite on ball defender, who can aggressively help and recover quickly.

His offensive bag isn’t incredible, but he’s sitting at 38% right now on a small volume of threes with 90% of those being assisted, and he can get to the rim if he absolutely has to. The “glue guy” characteristic gets overused at times in sports, but TA is him: he rebounds well, gathers deflections and steals, and makes everyone around him better by simply being on the court. His counting stats aren't eye popping, but watching him play he clearly sticks out as a guy who is seemingly everywhere all at once.

Unlocking these two alongside the continued growth from Musa Sagnia has given Wade an eight man rotation that is really starting to truly work together.

The timing of that fit couldn’t be better, because the back nine of this schedule does not get easier. State did well to go 7-2 to open the ACC - though that Q3 home loss to Georgia Tech is nauseating - but seven of those nine games came against teams in the bottom eight of the league per BartTorvik’s efficiency numbers. As of right now, State has 8 quad 1 and quad 2 opportunities left on the schedule.

With Miami’s home loss to Cal yesterday, State sits at fourth in the ACC with a one game lead on the Hurricanes in the standings. A top four finish is entirely in State’s control - Torvik gives the Pack a 69% chance to finish inside of the top four - but we’ve seen truly puzzling stretches from this team with two “wtf” performances on their home floor. State absolutely cannot afford to have those moments against the middle of the ACC teams coming to Raleigh in VT, Miami, and Stanford. 

Here’s how Mr. Torvik’s magic numbers project out the rest of the season:

Up next: at SMU. This game is huge. Over the last few years in the major men’s sports, it feels like State has frequently lacked the “not necessary, but really nice to have” kind of win that puts you in a position of strength vs. making up ground. Another Quad 1-A win would almost completely move the focus from making the tournament to advancing up the seed line and give State a big win over a fellow top four contender.

It's unwise to put the cart before the horse when talking about what your college sports team might do in the future, but for all the mockery and talk about the Reckoning not living up to the hype, Wade is on the doorstep of achieving something incredible in Raleigh.

This team is good enough to beat its rivals at home, secure a double bye in the ACC tournament, and make some real noise in March. To say that confidently - while also acknowledging it is hard to do, and is far from guaranteed - is a great spot to occupy on February 1st.

The opportunity is there. Will they take it?