NC State is Just Crazy Inconsistent

Will Wade’s first NC State team is defined by how hard it is to define. Variance is the term of the year for Wolfpack basketball, both as an input from State's opponents and an output from the Pack itself.

NC State held Liberty and Wake Forest to their lowest offensive efficiency outputs of the entire season. Ole Miss posted its second-worst effort against the Pack. At the same time, Boston College and Texas have both had their best offensive efforts of the entire season against State. Seton Hall had its second best game of the year when it met Wade’s team in Maui. 

When you play NC State, you may get locked down and shoot 32%, but you also may have the game of your life. Some level of inconsistency is inherent in a game as subject to variance as basketball, but the Wolfpack is on the far end of the volatility spectrum. State is sodium on the periodic table. 

I believed for a while that this was a bug that could be rid from the team eventually. Detonating for a 44-point win against Florida State is not something bad teams do, even if Florida State is not good. State’s shoddy performance against Wake still resulting in a 13-point win, even as State played about 18 minutes of good basketball, breeds a lot of optimism if you believe this group has not reached its final form. As the season goes and State does what it did on Saturday, it becomes harder to believe that we aren't already looking at the final form.

The Georgia Tech loss doesn’t doom State. It has a surprisingly small effect on its tournament chances. The problem is more what it was indicative of, which is a team that continues to leave the door open for weird stuff by letting inferior talent off the hook. Georgia Tech made some dumbass shots in that win. Sometimes teams will do that to you, and sometimes they’ll struggle to throw it in the ocean. Tech popping off with some uncharacteristic shot making is inconvenient, but it still would not have been enough if State hadn’t compounded the issue by also allowing easy shots that were largely unearned.

These types of shots are the ones that kill State. 

This is off of a make. State's in its 2-2-1 press and they just don't matchup correctly transitioning to the halfcourt. Copeland and Breed run with the same dude and it's a practice three.

While Williams and Arceneaux switch, Lubin scrams Holloman off the big. Arceneaux then sinks like he's fronting the big. Somebody is not where they are supposed to be at this point, and the result is clear confusion as to where the corner closeout should come from.

That's 6 points in a game that you lost by 4. It obviously doesn't work exactly like that, but two or three of these types of things per game can swing contests. State is currently 1-3 in games decided by two possessions or less.

There is a lot of communication and moving pieces required to make this defense work, and at this point, I have to wonder if you hit the blow-it-up button and play a style that requires less rotation and less help. The roster is obviously not built for that with mobility a focus for the bigs instead of size and rim protection. The team is constructed for a specific scheme, which is another reason why adjustments are harder than people think. This scheme has produced a couple phenomenal games and a defense that is technically top 40, but with the obvious caveat of the massive variance. Where do you draw the line on tweak vs. change?

I try to be patient before asking to hit reset, but we're deep into the season now and still seeing these things. Maybe you play more drop coverage, minimize rotation, and put the best shot blocking you've got between the ball and the rim. Find a way to make it simpler. Maybe you return to hedging ball screens, which I don't think has looked super good but has been a secondary screen coverage this year.

Offensively, State has posted some pretty mid performances since the start of ACC play, but also some pretty good ones! Some of this is schematic. Virginia, Boston College, and Georgia Tech all made concerted efforts to get underneath ball screens for Quadir Copeland and prevent him from getting into the paint. He still had success getting to the rim against the Yellow Jackets, partially because he's an elite isolation player, but he was working harder for it, and it showed in the shooting percentages.

Copeland has given you 200% of what you could have imagined from him so far this season. As far as I’m concerned, nothing is his fault because he has carried so much weight. A lesser output like Saturday’s is inevitable and acceptable , but State’s inability to create offense any other way is the real reason why it struggles to get good looks when teams are effective at making it harder on Q. 

Darrion Williams’ post-up game is nonexistent right now. He can certainly affect winning in lots of ways, but playing though his back-to-the-basket game is not one at this moment. A lot of people made the point that Wade’s press conference tirade was delivered to an audience of one, and that’s fine. I don’t take any issue with the coach using that moment to speak to his player. It doesn’t make the statement accurate, though. He hasn't been the same player.

Since returning to the lineup after sitting out the Texas Southern game, Williams is 11/40 from two, just above 25%. That's from two, not three. He’s a great passer out of the post, but he’s not scoring when teams aren’t doubling him, and that double has basically stopped coming because of it. I have no idea if the shoulder is still affecting him or not. It’s possible. For whatever reason, State has lost a cornerstone of its offense there. It largely has one creator right now, and that’s another entry point for randomness if that guy suddenly has a rougher day.

I'm not writing State off. I'm still very much expecting to see NC State in the NCAA Tournament, although likely in a red jersey at this point. Inconsistency cuts both ways, and State will get some meaningful wins. The Pack continues to offer an extremely high level of play in bite-sized amounts. If it could ever capture that and mass produce it, I don't think it's a stretch at all to say it's a tier 1 ACC contender and a high seed in March. The season does end though, and the closer we get to that, the less likely it is, and the less it might matter if they actually do.