Jackson's Picks: Season Predictions and Random Data Points

In 6 days, N.C. State will kick off their 2025 campaign.

The Pack plays 12 teams in the regular season. There is a permutation in the universe somewhere - and there might only be one - where State wins all 12. That'd be an amazing universe to experience, but I don't think it's ours.

We're going to look at all 12, what sticks out about the matchup and opponent, and then finish by picking each game.

We're finally here, folks. Let's get to it:

ECU

ECU ranks 107th in returning production per ESPN - and 126th on defense.

ECU has 50 new players on their roster, and only 3 defensive players who started against State in their Super Bowl last year return for this year. State’s gonna put points on this team.

That doesn’t mean ECU can’t score points back. QB Katin Hauser returns. At Wide Receiver, ECU returns former Wolfpacker Anthony Smith, NFL buzzworthy Yannick Smith, and Oklahoma transfer Jaquaize Pettaway, a former top 60 recruit in the country.

State's breaking in a new scheme, new transfers, and will likely want to get young guys in the game for experience.

The over/under for this game opened at 56.5, and has moved to 59.5. That might not be high enough.

Prediction: 38-21 win (1-0)

Virginia

It is undeniable that State has had horrific injury luck - especially at the QB position - this decade.

But man. Take a look at the injuries Virginia has already sustained:

• Starting MLB Kam Robinson - likely out a “few games” to start the year

• Starting S Antonio Clary - hasn’t practiced in the Fall

• Starting RT Makilan Thomas - likely out for a few months

• Starting LT Monroe Mills - out for the year with an ACL tear

• A total of three Cornerbacks out for the year

State gets an extra two days to prepare for the Hoos. I’m feeling much better about this matchup.

Prediction: 31-24 win (2-0)

@ Wake Forest

Wake has the lowest returning production of Power 4 teams on State’s schedule. That's a lot of new faces, stats, and dynamics in a team that is lacking talent.

Wake’s quarterback competition has…not been going well to date. Journeyman Robbie Ashford and Charlotte Transfer Deshawn Purdie have been struggling big time. Each has had significant time with the 1’s and neither has been able to take the reins, and not in the way where both are playing really well.

Anything can happen on the road in Winston-Salem - friggin’ house of horrors - but theoretically this sets up well for the Pack.

Prediction: 35-21 win (3-0)

@ Duke

This offseason, Duke spent up big for Darian Mensah. It might be Duke, but Darian Menash is a good quarterback.

This chart plots Expected Points Added/play and Completion Rate over Expected - so how much “points value” a given player is providing on the x axis, and how much better Mensah was than expected completing passes considering things like separation, distance of the throw, etc.:

Last year, Duke won four games last year in games they trailed in the fourth quarter. Highly unsustainable.

Duke opens the year with back to back tricky spots: Illinois at home, Tulane on the road in a Mensah revenge game, and then State in Durham, where State had more fans the last time they played. What happens if Duke drops one - or both - of these?

Prediction: 28-21 loss (3-1)

Virginia Tech

A major key to VT’s struggles last year revolved around QB Kyron Drones not being fully healthy.

He sustained another injury to start the year 2025 - severe enough that prompted surgery and him missing the second half of spring camp.

Drones is also seeing his top four pass catchers from last year move on, as well as now NFL running back Bayshel Tuten.

VT gets two games against SEC opponents in 6 days to start the year, and they don’t play on the road until NC State.

VT hasn’t beaten a top 25 team since Brent Pry has gotten to Blacksburg. If State opens the year 4-0, are they ranked when they play the hokies?

Prediction: 28-24 win (4-1)

Campbell

Sorry Camels. No notes here.

Prediction: 45-14 win (5-1)

5-1 sounds pretty good to start, right? Well...

@ Notre Dame

Notre Dame is undergoing a QB competition of their own, but this feels much more of an “Iron Sharpens Iron” situation than whatever Wake has going on.

CJ Carr is a former top 50 national recruit as a pocket passer, and Kenny Minchey is another high end 4-star QB that is more dual threat in nature.

It was announced this week that Carr would start week one, but I think this plays out into the season. Regardless of who's under center, it helps that both guys will be playing behind an offensive line that will compete for tops in the country. Plus ND stud running back Jeremyiah Love returns after rushing for 1,125 yards and 17 touchdowns -- and not losing a fumble at all in ‘24.

New DC Chris Ash was a guy rumored to have been connected to the N.C. State DC opening last year. But, obviously, you take the Notre Dame job.

Northern Illinois pulled it off last year, but that was a 1% type outcome. I don't see it for State.

Prediction: 38-14 loss (5-2)

@ Pittsburgh

I use the “roller coaster ride” analogy probably too frequently when I write. If you’re familiar with King’s Dominion in Virginia, Pitt rode the Intimidator:

I'm not built to ride this thing

​Straight up (7 wins to start the year) and straight down (6 losses to finish.)

QB Eli Holstein was strapped into the front of this thing. He started the year as the clear ACC Rookie of the Year, throwing for 15 touchdowns to just 3 interceptions and 1,564 yards in his first 5 games.

He fell just as quickly, though, averaging just 153 yards per game over his final four games, before a season ending injury to Louisville in game number 10.

Is Holstein back and locked in mentally? What about physically?

Pitt's got individual talent - they were one of 7 teams to have multiple players listed on ESPN’s All American team. All purpose back Desmond Reid and Linebacker Kyle Louis made the list, and yet the Panthers were the only team from this group to start the year unranked.

Prediction: 35-31 loss (5-3)

Georgia Tech

Haynes King is the straw that stirs the GT drink. He was very good last year, in a very particular way:

• 587 rushing yards (9th best from a QB) and 11 rushing touchdowns (3rd best)

• 72.9% completion rate (4th nationally)

• Lowest air yards per attempt amongst P4 quarterbacks (5.6)

• 9th in ESPN's Quarterback Rating

A gritty, dual-threat guy that primarily makes his hay in short yardage throws. He did miss two games last year, though. Will teams have figured GT's offense out by the time they come to Raleigh, and can he stay healthy after missing two games last year?

There's also the duality of the bee: The Yellow Jackets have a barbelled resume unlike any other since Brent Key stepped in as head coach in 2022. Georgia Tech has six wins against ranked opponents - more than ACC foe Clemson - and has losses to UVA, Bowling Green, and Vandy.

State played GT close last year - and should have won that one on the road - and I expect another battle this year.

Prediction: 31-30 loss (5-4)

@ Miami

A lot is riding on Carson Beck, whose 2024 ended with a UCL injury in his elbow. Surgery took him off the field until mid April.

Of Miami's top seven receivers from 2024, only tight end Elija Lofton is back in 2025. He had 150 yards on nine catches last season.

Miami is still an incredibly talented team who is loaded at the lines of scrimmage. Miami is the highest rated team in the ACC in "blue chip ratio" at 64%, referring to the number of players on Miami's roster who were 4 or 5 star recruits out of high school.

It'd be great to see a C.J. homecoming trip to South Florida end up in a W, but I don't see it right now.

Prediction: 38-21 loss (5-5)

FSU

FSU stunk last year. Like, catastrophically bad. Everything that could go wrong did go wrong. Bill Connelly had FSU at 128th nationally in turnover luck, 90th in close-game luck, and 110th in lineup consistency. Doesn’t get much worse than that.

In listening to preseason FSU podcasts, the theme has been injuries. It sounds like the Noles got nothing done in the Spring because everybody was hurt. Probably not great for a team with just 6 returning starters and 2 new coordinators.

With another transfer heavy team, and a top heavy schedule (Alabama and @ Clemson, with Florida right after N.C. State) could FSU be on quit watch when they make the trip to Raleigh?

Prediction: 34-31 win (6-5)

UNC

Per 247, UNC had 91 total transfers - incoming and outgoing - this cycle.

It has been 1,763 days since UNC beat N.C. State in football.

They'll need to wait another 365 days to get a chance to snap that streak.

Prediction: 28-27 win (7-5)

7-5 Again? Showing My Work

Let's walk through my logic here. Games broken down by early season SP+ ranking:

• 1 - 25: 2 (Notre Dame, Miami)

• 26 - 50: 4 (Duke, VT, , GT, FSU)

• 51 - 75: 3 (Pitt, UNC, Virginia at 74)

• 76 - 100: 2 (ECU, Wake Forest at 79)

• 100+: 1 (Campbell - NR)

I then went game by game, assigned a win probability - based on light research and mostly gut feel - to see how I would personally handicap State’s win/loss record:

• VS. ECU - .85

• VS. Virginia .7

• @ Wake .7

• @ Duke .4

• VT .6

• Campbell 1

• Notre Dame .1

• @ Pitt .4

• GT .6

• @ Miami .2

• FSU .6

• UNC .7

Total these win probabilities up: that’s an estimated 6.85 wins. That feels…low, right?

​The reality: half of State’s opponents are between 39th and 53rd in pre-season SP+ rating. 6 coin flip games to go with 2 games that you win the overwhelming majority of the time, 2 soft but still capable opponents in Wake and Virginia, and road games at Miami and Notre Dame that State - historically - never wins.

With this 7-5 pick, I'm projecting State to go 4-3 against it's foes in the 26-75 range. There's a tremendous amount of variance here: State could go to Pitt and Duke and swing the season easily. They could go to Winston and slip, or collapse at home to Jordon Hudson's sorority sisters.

I think this team will be better rated than last year's, but this schedule is much more middle heavy - last year's had two premier opponents in Tennessee and Clemson, but the rest of the schedule was rated easier than what they've got this year.

Reminder: I'm the goober who picked State to go 11-1 last year. We are quickly learning from that mistake.

I wanted to pick 8-4 or 9-3 badly - State's not done worse than this when returning a starting QB after a losing season under Dave - but I trust the math over my gut at this point.