MBB Offense Report: Good and Bad Through Three Games

NC State's men's team is 3-0, which hopefully is not a surprise. It's given us some fun stuff to analyze through 120 minutes of basketball, and as an offense-first guy, I took a look at some of the good things we've seen from State on that end of the court and some of the things that haven't yet shown direction. Let's get into it.

The Good

I’ve liked what I’ve seen from State’s offense when it has played from pick-and-roll sets and DHO sets. If you’re going to be a high-volume pick-and-roll team, and State has traditionally been this, you have to be effective against different ball screen coverages, lest you become very easy to defend. State looks right in this respect. 

The Pack had 20 assists on 38 buckets against South Carolina Upstate and 18 assists on 31 buckets against Presbyterian. That’s an over 50% assist rate through two games. What’s interesting about this is the differences in defensive looks against which the Pack managed to move the ball well. South Carolina Upstate was mostly a drop coverage team. 

The point of this defense is to minimize the need for rotation, chase the ball off the three-point line, and force the guard into a mid-range shot or a contested shot at the rim. You can beat it with pick and pop, which State famously did with Markell Johnson and Omer Yurtseven. You can beat it with a killer mid-range game, which State did with Jarkel Joiner and DJ Horne. You can also beat it with a guard that can engage the big and score over him or make a well-placed pocket pass to the roller, which it did well against SC Upstate. 

State was 3-10 in the mid-range in game one, but 26-34 around the rim. Some of this is a product of a great transition game, but the rest of it comes from 14 assists from Michael O’Connell, Trey Parker, and Breon Pass. The guards were really strong with their reads and timing in the pick-and-roll sets, and the ball didn’t stick when it reached the big. O’Connell had six assists, but even more initiation passes that led to buckets, or hockey assists or some people call them. 

This is as good as you can do sharing the ball against drop coverage.

By far, the best thing NC State has shown this year is its ability to initiate ball movement and make the extra pass. It’s a lot of the same actions that Keatts would run with the likes of Devon Daniels, Dereon Seabron, and Jarkel Joiner. The difference starts with Michael O’Connell, but there’s more to it. The passing from Middlebrooks and Huntley-Hatfield has looked good. When the ball makes it to the big on the pick and roll, it doesn’t stick. 

This all looks very instinctive too. There is not a lot of thinking happening on the court. All five players look very comfortable and free in these actions, and that matters because it speeds up the ball movement, allowing it to beat rotation. 

There was fun to be had against Presbyterian, a defense that brought the bigs to the level of the screen to defend State’s spread ball-screen actions. The reads were good in this game. I covered this play below in our Trinity Road Tape series. 

It’s a basic spread pick and roll, and it results in three passes, four different players touching the ball, and a wide open jumper. You can see in that clip one of the reasons why Keatts likes big lengthy guards. Defensive disruption and finishing ability at the rim are obviously high on that list, but an ability to pass backside over chasing guards has to be on that list. It’s easier to get the ball back to the wing in a shake action if you can get the ball over the defender, as Taylor does in the clip. 

State assisted on 38 of 69 made baskets through two games. Coastal Carolina saw this tape and came to Raleigh with a conservative drop coverage defense, similar in function but different in spacing than what Upstate brought. 

The Chanticleers had two seven-foot centers. Let’s compare the depth of their drops in drop coverage to that of South Carolina Upstate. 

This is a very clear statement of intent. Coastal put its giants deep in the lane, making recovery easier for the big should the guard hit a pocket pass on the roll and cutting off any driving lanes. Because of the depth allowing the big to essentially guard the ball and the roller, Coastal was able to minimize ball movement from 1 to 5 on the pick and roll and minimize defensive rotation on the wings, forcing State into a two-man game and cutting its ability to win open shots with ball movement. 

In order to do this, the Chanticleers had to concede wide open shots in the mid-range. That was their gamble. State will not put pressure on the rim and be able to spray the ball to the wings, and here’s a bunch of practice shots from 12 feet. Make them. 

This is almost identical to the USC Upstate clip above where O'Connell delivers a pocket pass to Middlebrooks who is able to get the angle on the big. That is simply not going to happen below.

Here's the USC Upstate clip again for direct comparison.

So what do you do when a team plays defense like this? Making 14 of 26 mid-range shots will do. Coastal sold out to get these shots and State shot them at a high clip. Four different players made a mid-range jumper off a ball screen or DHO. This is great to see. 26 mid-range shots is not where you want to live all year, but you have to have answers to this kind of defense in your arsenal. State was good offensively in a very different way in this game. It’s demonstrated more versatility in its pick and roll sets than I’ve seen from a Keatts team early in the season. 

Versatility is the most important thing in basketball. State has faced three different defenses through three games and it’s been good adjusting to how it attacks each and making shots. That deep of a drop will give you easy pick and pop opportunities and easy mid-range shots. You’re going to work for everything else. So sure, State was 0/10 from three, but five of those shots came from the five man. It wasn’t generating threes because Coastal was selling out to stop it. That statistic shouldn’t worry you yet. 

The Room for Improvement 

I’ve loved the efficiency and execution of State’s pick and roll. I have not loved the post up actions as much. Huntley-Hatfield definitely seems at his best moving, catching, and being a roll playmaker. Perhaps he’ll settle in and become more efficient as a post-up threat, but to this point, this team has a clear path to an offensive identity. It’s just three games though. 

The Pack’s turnover numbers are also up. Some of this will happen naturally as State shares the ball better. It played so much through scorers the last couple years. Terquavion Smith in the pick and roll is going to have a low turnover number because he’s going to shoot. That said, State has been a bit sloppy just catching the ball and being on the same page with some passes. Low turnover numbers have been a critical piece of offensive success when Keatts’ teams have been good the last couple years. 

While the three-point shooting numbers shouldn’t worry you yet, State does need to make a higher clip of open threes than it has. Some of this great ball movement has gone to waste. Right now, Styles and Taylor are the guys State is most interested in as catch-and-shoot players, and neither have gotten off to a great start from beyond the arc. Taylor had a 23/46 stretch last year and Styles shot over 37%, so the proof of concept exists. Shooting is a fickle beast, but hopefully they start to drop. 

My biggest concern for the offense is a lack of a “get-a-bucket” guy. When Keatts runs an action and it breaks down, he’s pretty good about having a second action to get into. When a possession goes sideways and you have a dwindling shot clock with a stuck basketball, I’m not sure there is a guy you can comfortably throw the ball to and get something from. DJ Burns and DJ Horne were both options here. State has had plenty of guards that fit this in the past. That role on this team is not any closer to defining itself than it was before the season.

Trey Parker is an interesting freshman who has some shot creation ability and has also looked great in every aspect of the offense. He’s a candidate for a lot of things this year, but the sample size is also just three games against three piles of old napkins. Mike James could also be this guy. He’s a capable shooter with the size to be physical on drives. That makes him a theoretical answer to a lot of paint-touch related questions, but we’ll have to wait and see when he comes back. 

There is a lot to still sort out, but that’s normal three games into the year. Overall, I’m pleased with an offense that has shared the ball well and been efficient against three different base defensive looks. Keatts will get a barrage of measuring stick games really soon, and offensively, I’m looking for him to start establishing an identity and then begin trimming the rotation.