Passing the Test + Pre-Maui Numbers

In its first three games of the year, Will Wade’s inaugural team was an iron-hot sword through a gargantuan pat of butter. It was the number one team in the country in effective field goal percentage. Its 318 points were the fourth most in school history through three games. Watching this team play basketball almost felt gluttonous, even considering the low level of competition.

Beating the pants off of bad teams is an indicator of truly good teams, but it can’t be the only type of result you see to make judgement of just how good a group might be. You need resistance to overcome if you’re hoping to forge a team worthy of making a March run.

State finally got into its “oh, this is real basketball now” stretch of the schedule Monday against a good VCU squad. The Rams are a top 60 team on KenPom, were picked first in the Atlantic-10 preseason poll, and profile as a likely Q2 opponent at home.

VCU more than rose to the occasion. This game was never out of reach for them. State extended its lead to 25-16 at the 12:47 mark, and it looked like “buzzsaw mode” was going to be activated again. Instead, VCU toggled on their own “make every three point shot down 2 or 3 possessions” setting, and they kept this game close for 40 minutes.

It was an uncomfortable watch as a State fan. The spurt you could almost reach out and touch to push the margin to double digits never came. Every time you sensed separation, VCU matched, and the antsiness returned.

This could be me completely gaslighting myself, but I love that State got pushed.

We have all watched these matchups in years and coaching staffs past: where a good effort turns into an “aw shucks” missed opportunity. A competitive game that runs out of “compete” at the end.

We can nitpick and sigh about not covering at home, but on a night where you were charitable in turnovers, your sharpshooter had zero points, you missed gimmies right and left: you hung on and got a six point win over a likely tournament team capable of winning a game in March. That is not a team trait we have seen every year at the Lenovo center.

Sure, winning by 6 feels bad in a game you were favored by 12. Thankfully from an analytical perspective, State’s profile didn’t change much. They dropped only two ranking spots in Kenpom’s metrics - and are still up 15 spots on the year to 23rd overall at the time of this article’s publishing.

If you count October’s preseason matchup against South Carolina, that’s ~80 minutes of contested basketball that this team has played wearing real uniforms. No matter how hard a coach tries to emulate an in game environment at practice, true game pressure is a completely different beast. (#analysis)

State’s about to go play three games in a high school gym in Hawaii with major NCAA seeding implications on the line. Seton Hall looks like a worse opponent on paper than VCU, but State could potentially face off against Kenpom’s 18th and 36th rated teams in USC and Texas from there. These are going to be tough opponents. I love that State built itself an on ramp of difficult competition before flying to Maui.

Will beating VCU at home make a massive difference in the outcome of this season? Probably not. But winning at a high level in any college sport comes from accumulating advantages in the margins, and I will take all of the marginal winning I can get.

Numbers, Charts, Interesting Tidbits

* Even with Paul McNeil going 0-fer on Monday night, State is performing at an elite rate from three on high volume, taking and making a ton:

* Another visual from CBB Analytics - team offensive rating vs. defensive rating. Matching the eye test, the Pack has been elite offensively, and fine on defense:

* Per ​EvanMiya.com​’s ratings, Darrion Williams is the 8th highest rated player in the country through four games. These numbers have preseason weightings factored in here, but considering there’s over 5,000 D1 basketball players on rosters this year, that falls into the “pretty good” category:

* Not far behind Darrion is Paul McNeil, whose total BPR comes in at 6.05, good for 58th nationally. That's two players in the top 60 for State, who didn't have any players in the top 250 last year.

* State’s three potential opponents in Maui have seen very little deviation in their KenPom ratings from the beginning of the year:

• Seton Hall: 93 -> 90

• USC: 22 -> 18

• Texas: 39 -> 36

Compare that to State’s rise so far from 38th to 22nd.

* Seton Hall has zero players in EvanMiya’s top 100 player ratings. USC has two - wing Chad Baker-Mazara at 18 and forward Jacob Cofie at 64. Texas has one with guard Dailyn Swain at 92.

* The Pack opened as FanDuel’s favorite to win the in game tournament at +170 odds - in front of Texas at +200 and USC at +270. State and USC will likely face each other in round two, while Texas may have the easiest path to an MTE final this year.

* Seton Hall has been disruptive on defense, to say the least. They are far and away Division 1’s leader in block and steal rate…but they are dead last (365th/365 teams) in KenPom’s strength of schedule so far this year. Regression will certainly hit this team, but an interesting view nonetheless:

* One of the biggest warts in State’s profile is their defensive foul rate. Through four games, State is 269th nationally. Wade has had four teams finish worse than this, while six of his teams have achieved lower foul rates. The Pack’s defense hasn’t been elite by any means, but making headway here would certainly help.

* The other issue right now is State’s three point rate allowed. State’s preference to show early help on drives frees up three point opportunities, as we saw on Monday night with VCU’s 40 attempts. State is 338th nationally here. (Note: It's true that three point rate on its own isn't good or bad - the quality of shot matters a lot.)

* And we’ll finish this one with no numbers. Just Scottie Ebube:

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