Supermassive NCSU Football Preview: Running Game

There aren't many inputs that have more reliably predicted results for NC State recently than the quality of its run game. This team is 8-11 against power five teams over the last two years. When it runs for over 200 yards, it is 5-1. When it does not, it is 3-10. When it runs for 200 yards, it averages 40 points per game. When it doesn't, it averages 23.

This is not rocket surgery. You need to be able to run the football. Having your run plays progress the ball down the field is helpful in winning football games, and it also makes everything else easier by staying ahead of the chains, opening up play action, putting less demand on the quarterback, and giving the defense fewer answers. Only time will tell if NC State's ground attack will find the juice this year, but let's dive into its prospects here in part one of Trinity Road Times' Supermassive NC State Football Previews.

First though, some quick background. I write these previews every year in four parts: the running game, the passing game, the defensive front, and the secondary. Each will release over the coming days in that order. If you like these and you want to get notified as they come out, I suggest joining our email list.

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Now to the sports!

The Duke of Scott

The headline here is the return of Duke Scott, who is really good and has a chance to be one of the best players on this team. From really his first carry of his career, he started waving some big green flags, and he eventually broke out in the absence of Hollywood Smothers. Now, he’s back for his sophomore season and is set to lead NC State in carries. 

Duke is not Hollywood Smothers. Let’s be clear on that. Smothers was an elite improviser and incredibly shifty in space to the point where you gave him the green light to do some things that are generally big no-nos for running backs. Smothers is All-American good. Scott isn’t that level of a playmaker, but he is also a completely different kind of player. 

This is an explosive, one-cut runner with a more vertical style. I think some people told themselves he wasn’t fast because he got labeled as a “power back,” but that would be wrong. He is fast. The thing I like about Scott is the lack of wasted movement. He’s patient, but without indecision if that makes sense. Duke Scott runs hit fast. His tracks are generally correct, his decisions are on time, and when he makes his cut, he’s out the door. This is not a kid who will sink well-blocked run plays with poor reads, overcutting, or undercutting. He will get you at least what you have blocked. Scott does not create negative plays by being a dingus in the backfield.

Beyond that, he can be a good second-level runner. He’s not going to make defenders miss in space so much as he is going to run through tackles and finish runs hard. Arm tackles are a no-go here generally, but you can get your hands on him one-on-one in space. It’s just that it will often come with a price.  He has good balance and is a powerful runner.

This is prototypical Duke Scott run.

Duo is the playcall. Scott is reading the flow of the linebacker on the left side. When he flows hard toward the hash, Scott cuts it D gap and gets vertical. Zero hesitation. Then, he breaks two ankle tackles because those aren't going to work and ultimately milks every yard possible before a gang gets him down.

Scott saw some of pretty much everything the playbook had to offer, and I thought he was good in all of it. He was good in Duo, where he can get vertical fast and looked comfortable making a second-level read of the weakside backer. He had some really nice reads in zone plays as well, and then he busted his second longest run of the year in a counter play against Memphis. Scott is a high-floor, relatively high ceiling running back. He’s not going to make chicken salad out of chicken shit the way Smothers did at times, but he’s a strong, versatile running back who does a lot well. 

So can NC State match or improve on its ground production while still losing an elite talent? Yes is a possible answer to the question, but a step forward from the newer pieces on the offensive line/tight end roster is likely a prerequisite for that. This is the type of run you probably won't see anymore.

Virginia defends this GH counter run with a "spill overlap" technique, and it works well, forcing the ball horizontal and spilling it to 4. It's a good "wrong arm" from 11. UVA meets the ball at the line of scrimmage, but this was just pure ability from Smothers to turn this into 8 yards. That level of shiftiness in space isn't teachable.

Doeren rarely wants to rely on one back, and that's an obvious decision. Doing so will wear a guy down eventually. UNC transfer Davion Gause joins the group and he seems fine. I also wanted to mention Jonathan Paylor, who is finally going to get his chance after a heartbreaking season-ending injury that occurred in a scrimmage last year. I don't know what to expect from him, but he wasn't a mega recruit for no reason. He is listed as a wide receiver now on the roster, but he's a possible X factor wherever he lines up. I do think a year one Concepcion type role for him could exist, not in volume, but in usage type, where you may see him carrying the ball from the backfield and running slot fades.

(Always important to note that X factor means "unknown quantity," not necessarily "really good player.")

Offensive Line Restaffing

I would not call it a rebuild, but State does need to replace three players on the offensive line who either started every game last year or have been multiyear starters. That is Anthony Carter, Jalen Grant, and Jacarrius Peak. Grant did some things well but was limited physically, and Carter did not have the year I thought or hoped he would, so State could upgrade on the interior. Peak is a big loss, and that's not going anywhere. The good news is that State's revolving door a year ago at guard got a lot of different guys experience who will now have their opportunity.

There are probably seven guys for five spots here, presumably with both tackle spots spoken for and exciting sophomore Spike Sowells locked in at either center or guard. Here are your seven.

• OT Jimarion McCrimon

• OT Teague Andersen

• IOL Spike Sowells

• OG Kamen Smith

• OG Yousef Mugharbil

• IOL Daniel Cruz

• OT/OG Rico Jackson

Andersen is back for his senior season and will start at tackle. He’s a high floor piece. State didn’t run his way that often last season because it wanted to run behind Jacarrius Peak, which is understandable. Andersen is not Jacarrius Peak. He doesn't have that level of physicality and upper body strength, but he's technically sound and will be a positively-contributing run blocker. He's also a good cut blocker, which benefited several outside zone plays last year.

Andersen (54) and Sowells (72) with a productive wide zone combo block that nearly gets the run to crease.

Opposite Andersen is Jimarion McCrimon, an all-conference transfer from East Carolina. McCrimon has some of the unteachables that Tujague likes to talk about, but would benefit from improvement in some of the teachables. He gets shed a lot on tape because he lets defenders engage him first and get their hands into his chest. McCrimon's hands are slow and sloppy at times. That is the biggest area of improvement for him to maximize his natural tools.

Inside, State has a ton of questions, but Spike Sowells is in position to provide correct answers plus some extra credit. His game is quite aesthetically pleasing, and he’s a good guy to take a look at if you just love offensive line play. Offensive line is probably the hardest position to get snaps at as a true freshman, but Sowells got out there. The last two true freshmen who saw playing time on the offensive line were Ickey Ekwonu and Jacarrius Peak. If he turns out like either of those guys, his career will be in good shape.

Sowells didn’t look like a freshman. He plays low and he’s good at initiating contact off two feet and “forklifting” defenders in drive and down block scenarios. The freshman played a lot in the first half against UNC and I thought he really looked the part in that game. He’s also a pretty decent reach blocker. This is a versatile interior lineman with a chance to live up to the expectations that came about when he started making noise at the end of his recruiting cycle. 

Sowells could play center or guard. Either way, that leaves essentially four guys for two interior spots. Kamen Smith and Rico Jackson both played significant snaps, while Yousef Mugharbil played a little less. Daniel Cruz, a Texas transfer, is the fourth.

Mugharbil and Smith I think are similar players in the sense that they had some juice but the game looked fast for them. When it was "see target, hit target," you saw some good flashes, but both struggled with assignments, especially stunts, reductions, and defensive line movements that changed assignments post-snap. Mugharbil's early season reps saw him struggle as a kick blocker in counter plays. I really do like Mugharbil's general technique, though. I didn't think Rico Jackson had the same ability to move guys. I thought he struggled.

Daniel Cruz has no tape, so I can't comment on much about him other than he could play guard or center. One of the nice parts of this group is how many playable guys can play multiple positions. It just makes it that much easier to get your best five out there. 

This is strong technique from Mugharbil

Note his pad level and the way his hands are directly in front of his elbows. That is the position necessary to generate the most amount of force, and you can see what happens to the defensive lineman here. Mugharbil has good hand placement and a good base, and his guy gets lifted off the ground and driven several yards back. This is the where the term "forklifting" comes from.

This was one of the two areas where he hurt his playing time. He was not a great puller last year.

When 17 wrong arms Mugharbil's kick out block, Mugharbil wants to turn and pin this inside, known as a log block. Some other stuff is bad here from other players, but 17 ends up making the tackle. Smith was better at this than Mugharbil.

This was Kamen Smith's best play of the season.

You can't really have an outside zone double team that looks better than this.

Overall, there are some concerns about the offensive line, but also reasons to be optimistic. I know I'm really out on a limb with that statement.

I think the offense will go as far as the offensive line will take them. Scott is not going to regularly make something out of poorly blocked plays, but he can absolutely turn a well-blocked play into a game-changing explosive run. For the guys up front, you can see how this could go well. That would look like McCrimon making strides, Daniel Cruz hitting out of the portal, and a couple of the young guys finding their way. That's a believable story. You can also see how it could go poorly. The talent in this room just isn't quite what it was two years ago. If it struggles to find good guard play, the run game is not going to be consistently good.

All New Tight End Room

Justin Joly, Cody Hardy, and Dante Daniels all wrapped up their college football careers last year. State got great use out of that tight end room, having lots of fun putting Justin Joly in many different parts of the formation while also finding some success with 12 personnel later in the year. It's a new dawn though, for better or worse. The Wolfpack will need to hit on a couple of tight end transfers this year.

First is Hunter Provience, who joins the program after leaving Montana State in search of FBS opportunities. Provience is Cody Hardy but, like, different. He is a physical run blocker who takes pride in that part of the game, and while he's not going to be a matchup issue in the passing game, he can be a functional piece within a passing concept. More on this in the passing game preview.

Provience is the attached tight end on the boundary side. He is the guy who is flattening somebody out of bounds in the top right at the end of the play.

The transition to the ACC level will be the big question for Provience. This Eastern Washington linebacker is not the caliber of player he will see this year, no offense to buddy. But Provience is definitely willing. He will hit someone. What State was able to get from Dante Daniels and Cody Hardy toward the end of last season was nice bit of proof of concept for Gavin Locklear's tight end room development.

The other addition is Vander Ploog from Oregon, who is a high ceiling high floor player that is State's swing at replacing Justin Joly's role. Ploog's lack of tape at the college level makes him a difficult projection, but one thing that is for sure is that this kid is a serious athlete. He played basketball also and his carrying trait as a football player in high school was his large catch radius and contested catch ability. Again, more on this in the passing game preview. I imagine Ploog can still add weight to his 6'6 frame, and without much of a history to point to, it's a question whether or not he can be a highly effective run blocker. His football history includes two years in high school and his lone year at Oregon. I guess we'll find out. This is another guy without any college tape, so I'm not going to make any high-confidence projections on his impact.

The position's only returning contributor is Preston Douglas, who got some burn in the bowl game last year. This room most likely gets made up of those three.

The Wild Will Formation

Finally, we’ll wrap up this preview by talking about Will Wilson and the quarterback run game, everybody’s favorite storyline from last year. It was genuinely hilarious how this thing evolved. It felt gimmicky at the beginning, and I figured it would work a couple times and then State would run it into a brick wall a for a minute before abandoning it. Instead, it became the most reliable part of the entire team. 

This is the basic play that State ran. 

QB Power. This example is from a balanced 12 personnel set. Pull the guard. Running back is the kick out block. Guard is the wrapper. Everyone else is down blocking.

You’ll see this again, but you’ll also see some expansion I imagine. It happened toward the end of last season, and State even called a pass play for him against UNC that keen observers may have noticed, even as Wilson took off anyway. There are ways to build offshoots of this play, and if it remains as unstoppable as it was, this team will have a chance to create some explosives off of various potential counters. Either way, our short yardage king will be back out there, averaging almost as many first downs per carry as yards per carry.

I thought Bailey also improved as a runner from his freshman year. State is a big fan of having handy some kind of gap scheme concept for the quarterback, particularly in the red zone. Any time you run the quarterback, you're +1 in the run game, a principle that Roper has wanted to take advantage of but has been shut down by execution in the past. State needed better blocking from its running back and better field vision from its quarterback to make these things work. The quarterback definitely improved.

Scheme Notes

State generally carried four runs last year outside of the quarterback stuff.

• Inside zone

• Outside zone

• Counter

• Duo

Scott looked really comfortable in all of these runs, and I'd like to think it will continue to carry all of these this year. I am not a big believer in these offenses that only really carry one run, especially not now in 2026 with the value defenses put on scheme multiplicity. State's offense is built to support a diverse call sheet while being able to run the full playbook from the same picture. That's the 11 personnel (single tight end) that it lines up in so frequently, from which it could run all four of these runs. Ideally, it minimizes the defense's ability to interpret tendencies.

Tight end play will be critical here. State typically runs GH counter, meaning it's using the tight end as the wrapper or lead blocker, and Duo demands a tight end to be Duo, otherwise it is a different play. Ultimately, I think tight end and the interior linemen not named Spike Sowells will be the three positions that could swing possible results here the most.

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