Taking Stock: N.C. State's Offense, Position by Position

Fall Camp is in full swing. We are knocking on the door of N.C. State football.

Becoming an annual tradition for me is going position by position and understanding if I think State is better or worse in each position group against the previous year, mainly looking at first and second stringers.

I've found this to be a helpful way to understand 1) who is playing where in this wacky transfer portal world with so many new faces, and 2) where strengths and weaknesses might lie with the team heading into August.

We'll start with the side of the ball that should be asked to do most of the heavy lifting this year: C.J. Bailey and the Boys. (Also a great name if C.J. and co ever decide they want to pursue musical talents.)

Just a Smidge of Consistency. Please?

Last year, I started this article with the following sentence:

Starting with Devin Leary's injury in October of 2022, State has been searching for something, anything on offense.

It's unfortunate that this statement still holds true, I think, going into 2025.

Don't get me wrong, State certainly found something with Hollywood Smothers, and it saw glimpses of C.J. Bailey stardom, but it came in fits and starts. That was on young players being young players - and on an offensive coordinator who didn't put his guys in a position to be successful.

My word for the offense in 2025 is consistency. If State can stay on schedule, limit turnovers, and keep drives going, big plays and points are inevitable. As we'll see in "weaknesses" in a minute, down-to-down effectiveness really wasn't this group's forte.

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2024 Strengths

• Hollywood Smothers - Smothers was trapped behind Jordan Waters to start the year and battled some injuries, but he emerged as one of the most explosive skill players in the ACC. Smothers should be a 15+ touch per game guy all year, no questions asked. I will continue to share this stat until I'm blue in the face:

• Offensive Line Play: N.C. State's offensive line was really good last year. It didn't translate to rushing yards all the time because the tight ends and running backs stunk in the run game. State's pass blocking PFF grade was 9th nationally, and their run blocking grade was 24th. O-line play is notoriously hard to judge given it's "non-tangible" impact on the game, but trust me when I say that State's dudes were dudes.

• There aren't many advanced stats that smile on State's offense. The best? N.C. State's expected points added (EPA) on dropbacks was 49th nationally. Yeah, not great.

2024 Weaknesses

• Early Downs EPA - 89th nationally. The Pack struggled to “win” on early downs all year.

• Rushing Success Rate - 106th nationally at 40.2%. Not surprising

• 3rd and 4th down Success Rate - 110th nationally at 36.6%. Probably a function of a true freshman playing most of the year.

Woof.

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Quarterback 📈

I won't repeat myself too much here on my opinion of C.J. Bailey - he flashed, both upside and freshmanness, and I think there's a wide range of outcomes for him in 2025. (Seriously, ​read this Trinity Road Times CJ eval from Alec.)

With a full offseason under his belt as "the guy," a change in offensive coordination, added weight, and continuity in the most important skill positions, I would expect CJ to take some sort of significant step forward. How big that step is determines State's ceiling.

C.J. graded out as one of the best true freshman QBs in the country last year, and in the ACC, he was very good at generating PPA (predicted points added, aka value) even at a high usage rate, which is a good sign.

If he can clean up his decision making, dropping far too deep in the pocket, and work inside of a simpler offense, he could have a special year.

Running Back 📈

I can't help but chuckle as I look back on last year's room. I had it pegged as one of its biggest strengths, not its achilles heel.

Nice.

Jordan Waters just didn't work. Kendrick Raphael was (high pitched voice) better at times? But not consistent enough or game changing in anyway. It was Raleighwood that saved this room, and even then, it was too late in the season.

State tried to run gap scheme early and often in '24, and nobody across the run game unit - particularly TE and RB - made it work. State had no problem wedging open big gains running inside and outside zone with Smothers, especially running behind Anthony Squared on the left side of the line.

While it's not super clear what Kurt Roper wants to do schematically, it's not rocket science that more zone will be on the table in 2025. Smothers has exactly what you're looking for in a running back here: Great vision and feel for gaps opening and closing, quick feet to navigate and explode through lanes, and the ability to get skinny and break tackles to open up big runs.

Past Smothers, we're not super sure of what the Pack has, but the Duke Scott hype dates back to pretty much the second State landed him out of high school. One of the strongest guys on the team relative to their body weight, Scott has probably received the most offseason hype of any "non-obvious" player.

One guy who hasn't seen a ton of hype is Jonathan Paylor, who is clearly operating in the running back room now. I'm not putting too much concern or worry in him being 3rd on the depth chart; the two guys in front of him are damn good. The only concern here is depth past Scott, but what teams feel good if they have to start their 3rd string running back?

Wide Receiver📈

Evaluating this group to me is simple: State saw a couple of replacement-level performers from last season leave in Dacari Collins and...Kevin Concepcion.

KC may kill it at A&M. I hope he does. But what he gave you last year was poor - and his 5th best PFF grade amongst State wide receivers shows it.

KC and Dacari led State's receiver rotation in snaps, with 568 and 432 respectively. That means opportunity for a crop of talented dudes.

Noah Rogers and Wesley Grimes are the obvious benefactor candidates here. Wesley made headlines on Twitter last week for running a ridiculous 4.3 40. All Noah Rogers did last year was this:

Neither of these guys are perfect in their games, and both struggled early on with QB inconsistency, but both finished strong: 70% of Wesley's yardage came in his final six games, while Noah recorded over 40 yards in 6 of his last 9 games. Not world bending numbers, but there's promise here.

Behind these two, Keenan Jackson and Terrell Anderson have a chance to take significant steps in their Sophomore seasons. I thought Jackson showed more consistency last year, but Anderson's ceiling is sky high.

If at least one of these two guys can take a major step, then you've got a trio of well rounded pass catchers to pair with Justin Joly, Hollywood, and Duke Scott. That's not accounting for freshmen like Jerel Bolder or Teddy Hoffman, who have both been highly touted this offseason, doing what Jackson + Anderson did last year. That's some serious firepower.

I'm keeping it simple with this group: a lot of guys got their feet wet last year in a poor offensive structure with a freshman quarterback. This room is going to be better.

Tight End 📈

Justin Joly is getting all of his deserved flowers:

I won't belabor the point on how good this guy is. If he can show more consistency as a blocker, he'll be a surefire day 2 NFL guy.

But this excitement doesn't come from Justin alone. Not even close.

Trinity Road Times' favorite transfer portal pickup is Cody Hardy. Because he does things like these:

He is a heat seeking missile. He wants to physically harm people. Always looking for work.

Hardy was pursued by Auburn, Mississippi State, and Oklahoma State. He's a high caliber blocker, and he's going to play a lot.

In the aforementioned clip, you saw Hardy serve as the Wrap block on counter. State had lots of problems running counter last year, and having a competent blocking tight end was one of those issues. He can also leak out and catch you by surprise in the red zone - I wouldn't be surprised to see him catch 3 or 4 touchdowns this year.

Hardy plugs in as a major difference maker right away, not only for his talent, but for what he unlocks schematically for the offense.

Tight End is in the running for best position on the team.

Left Tackle ➡️

Jacarrius Peak is an absolute dog.

He's a different left tackle than current Packer Anthony Belton - certainly more fleet of foot, and without the hulking size of The Escalade, but it doesn't matter. He's nasty:

Peak will be just as productive as AB was last year in my opinion, but it will look and feel much different.

Left Guard ➡️

Man, time can sneak up on you.

Doing research for this article, I found on GoPack.com that Anthony Carter is State's most experienced returning player. 33 games, 26 starts, and 1,773 career snaps.

I want an old offensive line. Carter has seen everything at this point. He doesn't necessarily flash as a pure road grader, but his technique is sound and he holds up well in pass protection. Putting him next to Peak figures to make the left side of the line the strongest.

Named to Athlon's 3rd team All-ACC preseason team, I expect Carter to be quite good again this year, but I'm not projecting another significant leap this late in his career.

Center 📉

State's been spoiled at Center. This is an insane run of starting centers since 2017.

• Garrett Bradbury

• Grant Gibson

• Dylan McMahon

• Zeke Correll

That's four All-ACC centers with NFL pedigrees.

State likely does not have that at Center in 2025, at least not yet.

Purdue transfer Jalen Grant figures to be the most logical day 1 starting candidate. Grant has the aforementioned experience you want as an offensive lineman, having a whopping 39 starts to his name across his 5 collegiate seasons to date. Coach Tujague highlighted that Grant has had a great Summer to date, so I'll give him the edge at this spot for now.

He's not the guy that could provide All-ACC upside, though. Humongous freshman Spike Sowells is clearly the guy of the future. But with State's most winnable games coming in the first half of the season, how much risk do you take plugging a true freshman in?

I'm not sure how this shakes out, but this position won't be as good as it was with Zeke Correll last year. Miss that dude already.

Right Guard ➡️

Tim McKay played a ton of football for State over his five years in Raleigh - I didn't think last year was his best year for the Pack, and him moving on opens a big opportunity.

Kamen Smith and Val Erickson are the two contenders for the spot, and right now it sounds like Smith has the edge. Smith is a large man at 6'5" and 325 pounds. He was an all conference basketball player and moves well for his size.

Erickson is a guy that Tujague has reportedly loved since his commitment from Missouri last year. Both of these guys struggled with consistency last year in small samples.

I ultimately see this position netting out as neutral from 2024 when this year is done - perhaps there's kinks to work out in the beginning of the year, but that coincides with a softer schedule. We've seen similar growth stories from guys like Peak and Carter under Tujague in Raleigh; Smith is my pick to win the job based on his athleticism and well roundedness but competition here is a great thing.

Right Tackle 📉

This "📉" rating is conflicting for me. It has almost nothing to do with Teague Andersen, and everything to do with the fact that he isn't Jacarrius Peak.

Teague has 17 starts under his belt in the Mountain West and was a ~top 300 transfer portal recruit according to On3.

I expect Andersen to be State's 3rd best offensive lineman behind Peak and Carter. From his film, he's got an extra step he can take as a run blocker, and I think Tujague can help him unlock it.

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Totaling everything up, we have:

• 4 positions trending up 📈

• 2 positions trending down 📉

• 3 spots that look neutral ➡️

Hopefully those ratings add up into State taking at least one step forward this year.

The "board state" of this offense is pretty clear to me:

• Very good skill position talent

• A quarterback with room to grow

• An offensive line with a wide range of outcomes

If the middle of this line comes together, this could be one of Dave's best offenses. If it doesn't, we could be smelling 6-6 again.

We won't have to wait long to find out - four weeks from today, we'll be breaking down an N.C. State opening night win.