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This is the 11th year in a row that State has concluded its regular season with a matchup against the Tar Heels. The setup serves as a double edged sword: one team walks away jubilant, the other is crushed.
Having a historic season? What better way to tank it than by losing to your most hated opponent. Are you 3-8 and need a jolt to finish the year? Beat that team up the road and folks will be happy.
Saturday was an incredibly uncomfortable roller coaster: a defensive battle that crescendoed with a 32 point fourth quarter. It looked good, then bad, then good, then very bad...until The Catch ™️ happened, and another big moment in this rivalry was formed. Sports!
That's four in a row, and remarkably, State has only lost two games in Carter-Finley West since 2006.
I don't care that both teams are .500 this week. This one always has and always will matter, and for State, ending this disastrous season by sending Mack into retirement feels big.
Half One: Offense 🤢, Defense 😁
State’s offense couldn’t have looked more night and day across the two halves.
The Pack finished half number one with:
A 29% success rate (4th percentile in CFB performances)
3.71 yards per play (5th percentile)
-.98 expected points added per drop back (0th percentile - woo!)
This was “Murphy’s Half” for the offense. Essentially everything that could’ve gone wrong, did.
Bailey was 3-8 for 19 yards and a pick. The interception came on an uncalled defensive pass interference, and two other incompletions came on drops. Pain.
Play calling was another issue. State’s offense ran 19 plays in the first quarter. I counted 4 designed runs for C.J., 2 trick plays, and 2 screens.
That is 42% of your play volume going to play types that have not aligned with your strengths all year long. Meanwhile, State handed the ball off once to Hollywood Smothers for a zone run, and that was at the two yard line for a touchdown.
The idea that State ran the ball 11 times in the first quarter, and only 1 utilized its best player with its most effective run concept, drives me insane. Whatever.
On the other hand, State’s defense looked fantastic.
Coming in, the clear threat was Omarion Hampton. He will be playing a lot on Sundays next year. At the half, Hampton had 15 carries for 78 yards and a long of 19. You will take that every day of the week. State’s secondary was flying around and making plays right and left (when they weren't being knocked out) - they finished with 5 pass break ups.
Davin Vann made the half-defining play with this strip sack that directly led to State’s seven points. That stutter step and rip through combo is nasty:
I texted a couple of friends at the half that ten points might win you the game in the second half with how these defenses were playing. Ha.
Half Two: Offense 😁, Defense 🤢
After all of that, it’s natural that the Pack would score on all six of its possessions in the second half. 38 plays run. 373 yards accumulated. Isn’t it crazy what happens when you put the ball into the hands of your best players?
Hollywood Smothers accumulated 116 yards on 13 touches. Justin Joly caught a massive 37 yard pass. KC dusted a corner for a touchdown, and Noah…well, we’ll get to him in a second.
Despite a disgusting set of first half metrics, State ended the full game with elite offensive numbers:
State finished with 10.08 yards per drop back (92nd percentile.) Let me say that again: on average, when State dropped back to pass, their average yard accumulation was 10.08 per play. Nuts!
55% success rate overall (96th percentile.) State was fantastic at staying on schedule, largely bolstered by a healthy run game. This is after State’s success rate in the first half was 4%!
State’s full game 3rd down conversation rate was 20%, which is poor. But that’s primarily because State only saw 4 third downs in the entire second half. The Pack did a phenomenal job of gashing UNC on early downs.
In keeping with a season long theme, State’s offensive line will continue to not get the credit it deserves. They were dominant in the run game, particularly in the interior. Poor Josh Harris gets destroyed by Tim McKay on the first touchdown play, and there was plenty more where that came from - they even blocked counter well this week! They were also elite in pass pro, allowing just four pressures and no sacks.
At this point in the season, PFF has the Pack graded as 4th best in pass protection and 20th best in run blocking. This isn’t adjusted for competition per se, but the film will show you that this unit has been very good this year.
Defensively, the switch was flipped in the wrong direction. It’s nothing new. Of Carolina’s 305 second half yards, nearly half of them came on 2 plays that State fans are tired of seeing:
A basic counter run by Omarion Hampton. Misfit by Devon Betty, 75 yard touchdown run
A delayed shovel pass to Omarion Hampton for 63 yards and a score, first used to carve up State’s defense way back in week 2 by Tennessee
State did yield a couple of other big explosives, but they were also down major contributors in the secondary. Aydan White didn’t dress for the game. Both Brandon Cisse and Bishop Fitzgerald were knocked out by UNC offensive lineman Howard Sampson. Cisse’s hit was disgusting:
Objectively, this game was fun as hell to watch - two different “games” across two halves, clutch plays by clutch players, 32 points in the fourth quarter…and if you’re an N.C. State fan, you now have The Noah Rogers game.
The Catch
In this incredibly well written recap by Alec, he issues a great reminder: Sports are all about moments. T.A. was in. Don't punt to Gio. Reggie Gallaspy's day. The Ben Finley game.
On the other hand: fhink for a minute about last year’s 39-20 drubbing of UNC. What do you remember? I remember smiling a lot as the Pack kicked them up and down the field. Those ass kickings are fun, but not as salient as other moment-based games.
There’s no question that the 2024 N.C. State - UNC game will be remembered for this no-probability dime from CJB to Mr. Rogers.
Watching live, I put my head in my hands before the ball made it to the catch point. I just knew this was a game ending interception.
It’s fitting that State’s most talented receiver - the “promised one” that everyone was begging to come home last year, whose brother walked on Senior day as a UNC football player - delivered the dagger.
Noah has all the talent in the world. He’s struggled with grasping the offense (CJ was yelling at him earlier in the game to get lined up correctly) and with drops at times, but the ceiling for this guy is still in the stars.
What are we going to call this? Noah’s Arc? Mr. Roger’s Neighborhood? Rogers’ Redemption?
We can keep workshopping a name, but this one is going to be talked about for a very long time. Even if both of these teams kinda stink.
A Fitting End
“Thank You Mack” signs were passed around Kenan stadium to honor the 16 year UNC head coach. As the game clock hit zero, the Moo U folks were the ones flashing the signs.
As William Brown leaves Chapel Hill for the final time, you could say that State’s program is also holding that metaphorical sign. Mack’s glorious return in 2019 produced more of the same for a program that the media loves to label a sleeping giant: a burst in recruiting rankings, in clicks and media coverage, but very little substance.
Mack started his first season in 2019 with future NFL players at every skill position on offense. He coached six seasons with Sam Howell and Drake Maye as his quarterbacks. He played in the weakest division in Power 5 college football.
Where did that get you? A fluke Orange Bowl appearance at 8-4 in 2020, and a 30 point shellacking by Clemson in an ACC title game. With all of these built in advantages, he could only beat State twice in six years.
Esse quam videri is the state of North Carolina's motto. “To be rather than to seem.”A former ESPN mouthpiece head coach, a brand built off of a basketball player, crowds like these - they point me towards an irony I really appreciate. The football program from the "flagship university" of our state continues to be all about seeming.
Yeah, beating these guys will never get old.
A Quick Word on KC Transferring
KC was a special dude from the get-go. Picking State over UNC is always fun, but getting on the field and playing at a freshman All American level is something completely different.
Perhaps even more important: KC was incredible to Wolfpack Nation. It was clear his relationship with the fanbase was important, and he showed out in times he certainly didn’t have to:
With all of that said: the reality is that KC was not close to the caliber of player he was last year. A few data points that highlight the dropoff:
2023:
78.5/100 offensive grade from PFF
2.23 yards per route run
6.5% drop rate
20 missed tackles forced
2024:
59.9/100 offensive grade from PFF
1.29 yards per route run
11.7% drop rate
7 missed tackles forced
Behind the scenes, it sounds like the commitment and effort took a hit this year. The 2024 version of KC was fine, but a far cry from the freshman All American we saw last year.
With the talent State could return - Joly, Smothers, Rogers, Grimes, Jackson, Anderson, and Paylor in the wings - State is more than set with skill talent. Add in the chunk of change you’re getting back from having to pay to retain a guy of his calibe,r and you’ve got a situation that isn’t as bad as it might look.
If I had to guess, judging by his twitter follows and his younger brother committing there already, KSU is his destination. I’ll miss watching him for sure. Freshman KC was something special.
Speaking of transfers: we'll have more on the transfer portal and offseason moves shortly. With C.J. announcing that he's back for another year, things should start heating up quickly. I'm grounding my expectations after this year, but there's a lot of young talent to get excited about in Raleigh.
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