Week 1 Preview: ECU

Putting Aside The Military Bowl

By far the most frustrated I've been writing a postgame breakdown was against ECU last year.

It was the totality of the loss: self inflicted mistakes, coaching incompetence - Robert! - and then an embarrassing brawl to finish it off.

Playing ECU is like fighting off the biggest horsefly you've seen in your life. The bites suck. It's annoying to deal with. When you finally swat it, it's done, but whatever satisfaction you feel from having ended the threat does not come close to the annoyance you feel from the fight.

State got bit pretty bad last year.

With everything that went into last year's loss, and the awful taste it left in the mouth this offseason, it's understandable to have that game color the lens of how you look at this year's opener.

This is where sports psychology gets so interesting to me.

Aside from last year's result and this year's game being completely independent events, both teams have seen roster and coaching turnover. This is not "Military Bowl Pt. 2." This is a totally separate game.

One of the most difficult things to do in college sports is recognizing that a given result you're seeing is one of a possible million.

State was favored to beat ECU by 6 in Annapolis. If they had been scheduled to play the next day, they'd be 6 point favorites again. State losing the Super Bowl doesn't change the roster composition or talent advantage State has. Process over results.

Because our perception of the ECU matchup is anchored in a five point loss 9 months ago, it feels like the most likely outcome of this game is a stressful nailbiter.

Let me show you why I believe this matchup will be different.

ECU's Offense

Last year, ECU's offense was above average in most spots nationally:

• 41st in adjusted EPA/play

• 11th in yards per dropback

• 58th in overall success rate

  
  

It certainly helps playing against American conference foes. ECU was particularly strong through the air last year, but that's not what we saw in the bowl game.

The Pirates gashed N.C. State on the ground. Now departed RB Rahjai Harris had runs of 86, 40, and 21 yards en route to an eye popping 326 team rushing yards. An 8.6 yards per carry performance defensively. Gross.

The good news for the Pack: ECU does not have the proven back behind him, and trotted out a depth chart Monday with 3 "co-starters" at the position.

Transfer QB Katin Hauser was the element making this offense go. He took the job over midway through the season last year and led ECU to but he was bad against State, completing 18 of 29 for 154 yards and two picks. The weather certainly had an impact on this, to be fair.

Where he actually made a difference in the game was was with his legs. He ran 13 times for 84 yards, 2 touchdowns, and six first downs. 10 of those runs were designed - he only ran more than 4 times in a game in one other game last year. It'll be interesting to see if ECU goes back to this; they no longer have the element of surprise here.

ECU is bringing back two offensive line starters, and the three transfer options they have suiting up for them do not appear to be overly talented. I think fans leave the Carter Thursday night asking "who is this Cian Slone guy?" This is a player State can move around to target specific matchups, and I'll be shocked if he doesn't leave this one with multiple QB pressures:

By far the most threatening group - on paper - is the wide receiver room. Former N.C. State depth piece Ant Smith is a home run threat, Yannick Smith is getting NFL buzz, and ECU brought in former Oklahoma wideout Jaquaize Pettaway who was a top 60 national recruit out of high school. I'm not buying that Pettaway will be some world beater, but Smith & Smith we know are going to be threatening.

Last year, this was a spread offense that loved going up-tempo. They were consistently snapping the ball with 28, 30 seconds on the play clock.

I can see this group hitting chunk plays on State in between the 10's, but I'm not sure this group will be able to push State around, or be able to outwork this secondary in the low redzone (inside the ten yard line.)

It was announced Tuesday that Brandon Cleveland would miss the first half of the game as a suspension rollover from the brawl at the end of the Military Bowl. Big Cleve is State's best defensive player in my opinion, and while I think State can still win the line of scrimmage without him, that is a situation worth monitoring in the first half.

ECU's Defense

This side of the ball has many more question marks than the Pirates' offense. It was not a good unit:

• 82nd in expected points added

• 106th in EPA per dropback

• 23rd in yards/rush allowed

Ironically, ECU's rush defense appeared to be its calling card for most of the season. All Hollywood Smothers did was average 9.3 yards per carry (though I will be fair and point out they were missing two interior defensive linemen in this one.)

Whatever green shoots might've emerged on this side of the ball are hard to find now. 126th in defensive returning production, ECU returns just 3 starters here.

There's a talent dearth here that State should be able to take advantage of. For example, take a look at the middle of ECU's defense:

• iDL McIver: 6th year guy who played in ~20% of snaps last year at FCS UT-Martin (former ECU player)

• iDL Wilson: Former walk on who played 13 snaps in one game last year

• LB Dankah: 3rd lowest PFF Grade on the defense last year amongst guys with >100 snaps (and played at Edge last year)

• LB: Wilson OR Johnson: under 300 and 200 snaps last year, respectively. Middling PFF grades

This matchup should be a pretty clear tell on the status of State's offensive line. Anything can happen in a long college football season; units will improve throughout the year and look much different than they did in week one. But if State's new interior line can't push these guys around, then that's a check engine light that we should be closely monitoring.

If anything, the strength of this defense appears to be its ends - J.D. Lampley and Jasiyah Robinson graded out well, but they're both light in the 260's on the edge. Again, mass and power advantage N.C. State.

Their secondary looks like a mixed bag. They return safety Ja'Marley Riddle and added Corner Jordy Lowery from WCU - both of which graded out in the 70's in PFF, which is pretty good.

They're also going to be trotting out Rasheed Reason, a corner who played a ton of snaps at ODU (but poorly) and Nickel Jonathan Jean, who played <20% of the season's snaps and not particularly well.

I promise this doesn't come from a place of personal distaste for ECU: it shouldn't matter what ECU does. State ran for a bajillion yards on them last year, and I expect them to be able to do so again on Thursday. And from a passing attack perspective, there's too much firepower with this skill group for whatever rag-tag group of defenders they throw out there.

This side of the ball is all about not doing the wrong thing. If C.J. can show up, read what he's seeing, and make the right decisions, State's point floor for this game is in the 30's.

Models + My Prediction

State winning this game comes down to basics. Back to the bowl game one more time:

• Hollywood Smothers averaged 10.65 yards per touch

• An off day for C.J. Bailey still resulted in 8.8 yards per attempt

• ECU averaged 8.4 yards per carry

Which of these feels like it doesn't belong?

Rewatching last year's matchup (holy nausea inducing) I was stunned at how much of this game came down to State hurting itself.

Take this screenshot on a play from State's first drive for example. What do you think happened on this play? And how did this drive end?

C.J. ran into a sack, and a next play penalty ended up forcing State to go for - and miss - a 4th down conversion. Totally avoidable here if you just do the right thing (at this point, it's get the ball to Joly at the top of the screen.)

I'm not going to show you a picture of the 86 yard touchdown that ECU scored to win, because I don't want to hurt you, reader, but that is another example of State's self-sabotage. You can give up a run to the second level for 12 yards there, but you can't give up that. A game ender on a simple run misfit.

We don't have predictive metrics ahead of this one given it's week one, but this is what it looked like last year before State and ECU played:

I understand that seeing a 14 point spread is scary. Bill Connelly's SP+ model has State winning by 15 this week. In my opinion, this isn't a case of Vegas missing something or a mispriced line.

(Side note: this line moving ~2.5 points from 11.5 to 14 on Monday morning is unusual. Stay alert for something that might pop up closer to kickoff that points to ECU being shorthanded, on the coaching or personnel front.)

All State needs to do in this one: line up and execute. You don't need to out gimmick or strategize here.

Run inside and wide zone effectively. Make the right reads. Stay gap sound. Fit counter correctly.

I'm not going to let one bowl game - with opt outs, wet weather, guys actively taking visits to other schools while prepping for the game, and coaching malpractice - distract me from the fact that State is the more talented, ACC team playing a home night game in one of the loudest places to play in the country.

This is a game that State is going to be up for. They've heard about this loss for 9 months, and all of its goals are ahead of it.

I've got State righting wrongs in this one, covering the spread and showing some promise in a 38-21 win.