Meet Justin Gainey

NC State has named its next men’s basketball coach just days after being ghosted by Will Wade’s traveling circus. Welcome home, Justin Gainey. The Tennessee assistant and former Wolfpack guard became the top target following Josh Schertz's decision to pass on the job, and what could have been one year ago is now real.

Gainey was not my first choice, nor was he NC State's from the sounds of it, but the Wolfpack can win with him if the NIL support is there. He is a high-end recruiter, a trait that has lost some importance but still matters to a lesser degree, and he's been an impactful defensive assistant for a Rick Barnes-led program that has ridden its defense to a 6-or-higher seed in the last eight NCAA Tournaments.

The obvious day one win with Gainey is his university connections, which strengthens his long-term prospects should he succeed. He’ll also come in with an administration and fanbase looking to rally around someone who actually cares about the job they're doing. Will Wade’s stunt left enough of a scar that Boo Corrigan felt the need to quote Philip Rivers in his presser, and I would venture a guess that the way Wade exited helped the general push for Gainey, maybe not within the administration, but definitely within the fanbase. 

To be honest, I don't care too much about this. I think the rare air State entered dealing with a sleazeball like Will Wade led to an overcorrection in some people's minds. But by no means is it a bad thing. Gainey will absolutely kill the press conference, and unlike Wade, he'll mean the words he says. What I care more about is the chops as an actual coach. In that respect, this is a notable deviation from recent hires in a few different ways.

Gainey has no head coaching experience, unlike Keatts and Wade who were both hired after successful stints at mid-majors. Gainey’s MO is also defense, which is a clear break from all of NC State’s recent history. State has had one season since 2008 where it had a top 50 defense per Bart Torvik’s opponent-adjusted efficiency ratings. I say 2008 because that’s the furthest back data is available. It’s had one season since 2015 where it finished in the top 100 in defensive effective field goal percentage (95th in 2020). Those numbers are just bad.

Enter Gainey, who may be setting up to change this. Gainey joined the Tennessee staff in 2021 and was promoted to Associate Head Coach the following year, when he would also assume “defensive coordinator” responsibilities. His first year in that role, Tennessee had the nation’s number one defense, and it has been in the top 15 every year since. Below is the opponent-adjusted defensive efficiency and defensive effective field goal percentage rankings of every Rick Barnes defense at Tennessee. 

Year	Defensive Efficiency Ranking	Defensive eFG% Ranking	Notes
2025-26	12	37
2024-25	3	4
2023-24	3	5
2022-23	1	3	Gainey's first year as AHC and DC
2021-22	3	33	Gainey's first year on staff
2020-21	4	27
2019-20	57	30
2018-19	42	48
2017-18	6	15
2016-17	50	87
2015-16	147	101

This year's Volunteers roster was built for defense. The team is huge with five guys 6’8 or taller and three guys 6’10 or taller in the rotation. They’re athletic, and they don’t waste the physical ability by being stupid. It's a pretty well-oiled machine, and the tape speaks the same language that the spreadsheets do. This group is pretty good at defense, and it’s the only reason the team is any good. The offense is downright mediocre. 

Tennessee’s physicality has been highlighted a lot, but there is a lot else that they do well. The Vols' ball screen coverages are versatile. I watched them against Alabama, Kentucky, and Auburn, and its drop coverage looked consistently good.

Tennessee was also excellent at blowing up ball screens and generally minimizing the advantages created off of them, which allowed it to rotate out of its coverages pretty quickly. That goes back to physicality and being a high-effort group. Creating advantages against the Volunteers' drop coverage was a challenge.

They did show some vulnerability to Verajao screens and ball screen rejections because of how aggressive they were at trying to fight over screens. Because they don't like to switch aggressively, Kentucky was able to do some work with exit screens and flex screens for guards out of its 5-out spacing, and that was a game it eventually won. Just generally though, Tennessee didn't play super well against Kentucky.

Gainey/Barnes' group would also soft hedge and hard hedge ball screens, and they had the athleticism to switch when called for. This team did not switch aggressively in the games that I watched, certainly not like Will Wade's team. It was mostly out of necessity, but they communicated these things well when needed as you'll in the below clip. The ability to play various coverages well and switch without a huge matchup issue when the offense does create an advantage is a big win for Gainey's defense.

Most notably, Tennessee just guards the ball very well. Just straight up getting beat off the dribble isn’t part of the deal for Tennessee. They’ll get their hands on you and they really move their feet. You see a lot of high-off-the-glass and a lot of turn-around pull ups when opponents try to create off the dribble. They don't get beat that often.

This is a good possession of communication and on-ball defense.

Alabama ghosts the guard-to-guard ball screen and runs 5 directly into a flare screen. This creates a problem for Tennessee, but they communicate it well, switching J.P. Estrella (13) onto the ball and Okpara (34) onto the flare screener. Estrella is a key matchup in a switch situation, so Alabama attacks him. He holds well against the drive. Alabama resets it and 3 tries to attack Amari Evans (1), but Evans moves his feet well and beats him to the spot. He gets called for a foul, but this is not a foul.

A lot of this is what I’m betting you’ll see at State, at least scheme and roster wise. I expect Gainey will make a run at being one of the taller teams in the league with an emphasis on these long athletes that can be rangy defensively. Gainey was the lead man on the recruitment of Nate Ament, a top-five player nationally in the 2025 class. Guys are fond of this coach. I don't really doubt at all that he'll be appealing to talent.

If State can fund this at a high enough level, it could work. It definitely comes with question marks, though. What will the offense look like? Josh Schertz would have come to Raleigh with a defined (and super interesting) approach to offense that was unquestionably his. I have no idea what Gainey’s offense may consist of, and it will probably depend on a lot of assistant input. Certainly, Rick Barnes’ offenses during Gainey’s time have not been elite by any measure.

The optimistic viewpoint is that defense travels and it wins championships. This year's State team is a great example of how volatile you can be when your strength is in your shooting and you are garbage defensively. Defense breeds consistency. I would be thrilled to see consistency from NC State Men's Basketball for the first time in my entire life.

The pessimistic viewpoint is that you hired a guy with little offensive coaching experience (and no head coaching experience) and you're at risk of entering into a ton of rock fights at best if that can't be figured out. I'm not personally super worried about a guy never being a head coach before. Former assistants win all the time. But it is fair to ask about when you have basically nothing to go on.

I dove headfirst into the Will Wade hype and ended up with egg on my face, so I'm going to be measured about all of this. You will not get an article from me about how Justin Gainey is the right guy to avenge the last 30 years. I don't know what this will hold, but I am cautiously optimistic that State can become a team with a tough, defensive-minded identity and that Gainey can use his hopefully-flush NIL fund and recruiting juice to put some good creators on the court and build supporting offense around them. Either way, first choice or not, welcome Justin Gainey and I'll be behind you.