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Supermassive NCSU Football Preview: Passing Game

NC State has a returning starting quarterback for the second straight year. It is one of two schools in the ACC that can say that. What a hilarious stat that is. There is no question that the retention of CJ Bailey was the long pole in the tent of this passing offense for 2026, and it's a big win to be able to check that box. Unfortunately for the rest of the tent, almost all the other poles left. This year's passing offense features a lot of new construction, but at least it gets built around a key centerpiece at quarterback.


Let's talk about the size of the roster turnover here. Keenan Jackson returns as the leading receiver with 28 catches for 281 yards. The next leading returner is . . . Ethan Dowdy!! He had 3 catches for 24 yards last year. As noted in the run game preview, State also replaces three starting offensive linemen and all of its tight ends.


State truly is rebuilding everything around CJ Bailey, but while the Ethan Dowdy thing makes for a fun little tidbit, this actual situation isn’t that unusual anymore. To reconstruct this room, State added five receivers and two tight ends in the portal. A new set of skill position players is born for the Wolfpack, and they really need to be good. 


This is part two of the Supermassive NC State Football Preview. Part three and four, which is the defensive front and the secondary, will release over the coming days in that order. If you like these and you want to get notified as they come out, I suggest joining our email list.



CJ Bailey is Old Now


The guy once lovingly referred to as a baby giraffe is now an upperclassman giraffe. They grow up so fast. If I had to sum up the ask of CJ Bailey as he enters his junior year, it’s to go from a quarterback that you can win games with to a quarterback that can win you games. There is a distinction there. State is 3-10 against power five teams in the last two years when it rushes for under 200 yards and it's 1-4 when Bailey throws more than 35 passes. The lone win there was at Cal in 2024, where Bailey led a frantic fourth quarter comeback and made several high-end throws. That's the quarterback we're looking for every single game.


For the larger part of his two years in Raleigh, he’s been a high floor operator that keeps the ball out of harm’s way, won’t sell a game, and will flash some really high level stuff. Being able to take those flashes and make them consistently who he is is what propels this quarterback into a higher tier. His low turnover rate can be a double-edged sword, as sometimes there will be throws on the field that get left on the field. Bailey can be late to window throws when he's throwing off defender movement, and there are also accuracy improvements at all three levels that can hopefully come with mechanical growth. Sophomore Bailey was definitely improved over freshman Bailey, so you hope the trajectory continues this year. He's a good quarterback. We want junior year CJ Bailey to be great.


It's in there. Now it's time to get more of it. Below are some examples of the extreme ends of this quarterback (more at the end).


This is an excellent defender read and anticipation throw. Look where the receiver is in relation to the zone defender underneath him when Bailey's hands break. This is a higher level throw. Wake is also showing a cover 1 pressure but then playing cover 3, so Bailey is picking up the disguised coverage and delivering a seed.
This is an excellent defender read and anticipation throw. Look where the receiver is in relation to the zone defender underneath him when Bailey's hands break. This is a higher level throw. Wake is also showing a cover 1 pressure but then playing cover 3, so Bailey is picking up the disguised coverage and delivering a seed.
Simple screen and go, a play that Bailey has thrown for big gains several times in his career. What is he looking at here? Why does not throw this ball?
Simple screen and go, a play that Bailey has thrown for big gains several times in his career. What is he looking at here? Why does not throw this ball?
This is a cross-field dime on a simple outside fade route. Cover 1, one-on-one in press, classic deep shot situation. Anderson is blanketed here and Bailey drops this in. You can't throw this any better. He's not even open. It's elite.
This is a cross-field dime on a simple outside fade route. Cover 1, one-on-one in press, classic deep shot situation. Anderson is blanketed here and Bailey drops this in. You can't throw this any better. He's not even open. It's elite.
Bailey's fade balls are often short and inside. When he gets opportunities to take these one-on-one shots, he has to get the ball in a more competitive spot more consistently, like the example above. Underthrown isn't a killer and is sometimes done on purpose, but inside and underthrown is tough. This slot fade is there with Pitt in cover 0, but it's not a well-thrown ball. A lot of deep shots come from identifying and "alerting" one-on-one opportunities on the outside. Bailey hasn't always done a good job of leveraging these.
Bailey's fade balls are often short and inside. When he gets opportunities to take these one-on-one shots, he has to get the ball in a more competitive spot more consistently, like the example above. Underthrown isn't a killer and is sometimes done on purpose, but inside and underthrown is tough. This slot fade is there with Pitt in cover 0, but it's not a well-thrown ball. A lot of deep shots come from identifying and "alerting" one-on-one opportunities on the outside. Bailey hasn't always done a good job of leveraging these.


Shopping for Receivers at Trader JoJo's


As mentioned, State added five new receivers in the portal. It also adds a couple of freshmen and returns a redshirt freshman who could find his way on the field. Here are some quick thoughts on each player 


Keenan Jackson 

I like Jackson. He ran a lot of the crossing route that you can see in the Y cross play that State loved so much, and he scored a handful of times on it. I think Jackson has better ball skills than he’s been able to show, and I’m curious to see if State gives him more opportunities on the outside this year. 


Victor Snow 

Snow is a prototypical slot receiver, and he should be an instant impact guy who could fit into a lot of different concepts a lot of different ways. One element from last year’s offense that was pretty common was the double move, and Kurt Roper would sometimes tag these to oft-used quick game routes and concepts. Snow’s time to top speed makes him a compelling option to hit stuff like this with. 


JoJo Trader

Trader is the best talent in the room. He did not make much of an impact at Miami. State really really needs him to be good. 


Chance Robinson

I have no idea.


Devon Dozier

Dozier was obviously recruited to try and get a big body on the outside who can win 50/50 balls and offer a wide catch radius. He does not separate from coverage well, so most of his opportunities will be in the form of contested catches or getting open within the scheme against zone coverages. If Dozier is going to make an impact, I think it likely needs to come with better ball placement downfield from CJ Bailey. 


Tyran Warren 

Warren reminds of CJ Riley. He’s very tall and he can run a straight line quite fast.


Jerel Bolder, Tyreek Copper, and Amiri Acker are all freshman who could fight for playing time. Hopper is a true freshman, but a touted one who probably has the best chance to see the field of any true freshman on the team. If you did not hear the news, Teddy Hoffman is suspended for the year, so he is not included in this preview. 


State has employed the commonly used strategy for mid-tier programs of harvesting high school standouts that didn't get the playing time at their first college home. We have seen this work in the past, and we've seen it not work. This year, with JoJo Trader and Chance Robinson both being former blue-chippers, it really needs to work. These are probably the two guys that carry the ceiling for this group in their hands.


Plooging The Hole at Tight End


One of the biggest X factors for this team is Vander Ploog. The former Oregon Duck is one of two tight end adds, and he's no doubt the higher ceiling player of the two.


Why is Ploog an X factor? Because State’s offense likes to build scheme multiplicity through 11 personnel formations. Most of its snaps come out of 11 personnel, which means a single tight end set, sometimes called the “power spread.” Below is a common alignment from NC State in Kurt Roper’s first season. 


Three receivers, one attached tight end. You can run almost anything you want from this alignment if you have the versatility at tight end to be a playmaker in the passing game and a capable run blocker.
Three receivers, one attached tight end. You can run almost anything you want from this alignment if you have the versatility at tight end to be a playmaker in the passing game and a capable run blocker.

Being able to feature an “everything” tight end opens up almost the entire playbook from these alignments, and it makes it harder for defenses to know what’s coming, to personnel match, or to adjust to strengths and weaknesses of certain formations. This type of role is certainly a possible outcome for Vander Ploog’s career. He’s a high-end athlete with a long basketball career, and his leaping ability transitioned to the football field well in high school. He can create mismatches with his size and compelling catch radius


It’s a fun prospect to think about, but the more grounded analysis is that he’s only played a couple years of football, did not see the field at Oregon, and is thin for his 6’6 frame. Ploog becoming this level of contributor quickly is possible, but it isn’t likely. There’s no doubt though that this is State’s swing to find the tight end versatility it had with Justin Joly. If it does hit, it could be exciting.


Hunter Provience and Preston Douglas just won't be a mismatch through the air like that. We talked about Provience's role as a run blocker already. This guy can absolutely be part of the pass game too. Don’t let his low receiving numbers fool you into misunderstanding his route volume at Montana State. He ran plenty of routes. But he’s more likely to get open via rubs/picks and within the scheme than he is to pose a mismatch against a DB that the offense wants to target. His lone touchdown in 2025 came out of a mesh play. 


Put The Pro in Pass Protection, Hopefully


Finally, we’re back to the offensive line. Teague Anderson, Spike Sowells, and ECU transfer Jimarion McCrimon are the three guys I think showed some juice in pass pro a year ago. Anderson is a known commodity at this point. He’s consistently solid. Sowells is definitely ahead of the average rising sophomore. He sees things well and has a good anchor, which is important for all offensive linemen but especially interior linemen, who will naturally see more power as they match up with interior defensive linemen. 


McCrimon also anchors well, even as his technique needs improvement for the same reasons we talked about in the run game preview. This rep kind of sums him up to me. 


McCrimon holds up fine here even though he basically doesn't make meaningful contact with his hands. They're way high and outside, and he lets the defensive end into his chest. This is a common thing with McCrimon, but he plays with a good base and anchors well, and he's able to fight off the rush here.
McCrimon holds up fine here even though he basically doesn't make meaningful contact with his hands. They're way high and outside, and he lets the defensive end into his chest. This is a common thing with McCrimon, but he plays with a good base and anchors well, and he's able to fight off the rush here.

Kamen Smith, Rico Jackson, and Yousef Mugharbil all took their lumps. With the young guys, it was more about managing assignments, post-snap movement, and not chasing penetrators and giving up free lanes to loopers. Check out these examples below.


Smith is man-to-man on the 3-tech to his left here. You're going to get an ET stunt on that side, where the tackle will get upfield and then work to the edge, while the defensive end loops over him into the A gap. Smith chases the the defensive tackle too far and can't recover fast enough. It creates a free runner.
Smith is man-to-man on the 3-tech to his left here. You're going to get an ET stunt on that side, where the tackle will get upfield and then work to the edge, while the defensive end loops over him into the A gap. Smith chases the the defensive tackle too far and can't recover fast enough. It creates a free runner.

Spike Sowells seems to really to have the juice, and he provides some good examples of how this should look.


Per the protection rules of this play, Sowells is man-to-man on the 4i defensive end, which is the guy aligned outside of this right shoulder. That's responsibility one. When that guy works outside of the tackle, Sowells passes that off and checks the walked-up linebacker for a possible stunt. Nothing is coming there, so he immediately works backside. It's not uncommon, when a defensive lineman bumps to the edge like that, to have something coming from the backside. This is called a reduction. There is not one, though, and Sowells has now progressed through and has no responsibility, so it's time to find work.
Per the protection rules of this play, Sowells is man-to-man on the 4i defensive end, which is the guy aligned outside of this right shoulder. That's responsibility one. When that guy works outside of the tackle, Sowells passes that off and checks the walked-up linebacker for a possible stunt. Nothing is coming there, so he immediately works backside. It's not uncommon, when a defensive lineman bumps to the edge like that, to have something coming from the backside. This is called a reduction. There is not one, though, and Sowells has now progressed through and has no responsibility, so it's time to find work.
This has the same protection rules as the play above (half-slide left), making Sowells man-to-man on 34. Both 34 and the edge drop into coverage, and State is going to get a reduction from the Notre Dame front. Sowells works backside, finds it, but that gets all the way outside of Anderson, so Sowells can come back and find work. He ends up saving the play simply by knowing when to pass off responsibility, and he cans the penetration coming up the A gap.
This has the same protection rules as the play above (half-slide left), making Sowells man-to-man on 34. Both 34 and the edge drop into coverage, and State is going to get a reduction from the Notre Dame front. Sowells works backside, finds it, but that gets all the way outside of Anderson, so Sowells can come back and find work. He ends up saving the play simply by knowing when to pass off responsibility, and he cans the penetration coming up the A gap.

I've come to expect solid pass protection from any Garrett Tujague offensive line. I expect McCrimon will get a step better, Sowells will show out, Andersen will be rock solid, and this group will be reliable again. It may get out-talented on occasion like it did against Miami last year, but I'm not sure there are any beast defensive lines of this schedule (don't quote me on that). If the young guys can handle stunts and games a little better, it should be just fine.


Scheme Notes


A lot was made of the Kurt Roper relationship with CJ Bailey, and the most noticeable change in the passing game was the shift toward more pure progression passing concepts. Freshman Bailey really struggled with coverage disguises. He definitely improved as a sophomore, but State also leaned more into passing concepts that don't demand as much coverage recognition.


A pure progression passing play is exactly that. The quarterback starts in the same spot every time (unless he's hot), which can build confidence in the process for a younger quarterback as it removes ambiguity. Below is the most frequently called pass play of the year for NC State.


A pure progression play is a quarterback confidence tool because it provides certainty. Unless the quarterback is hot (he has to throw into pressure because the protection is outnumbered), he starts at 1. If he sees press corners and one high safety, he starts at 1. If he sees soft corners and two high safeties, he starts at 1. If a spaceship lands at the 50 yard line and an alien with a top hat and a cane walks out, he starts at 1.
A pure progression play is a quarterback confidence tool because it provides certainty. Unless the quarterback is hot (he has to throw into pressure because the protection is outnumbered), he starts at 1. If he sees press corners and one high safety, he starts at 1. If he sees soft corners and two high safeties, he starts at 1. If a spaceship lands at the 50 yard line and an alien with a top hat and a cane walks out, he starts at 1.

Two of Bailey's best games of the year were games two and three against UVA and Wake. State had a tremendous amount of success with these plays in those games, and it was kind of embarrassing for Wake Forest how badly it got picked apart for 60 minutes by some variation of this play. Teams eventually settled down on this. Pitt and Notre Dame defended these concepts well, but State was able to negotiate the last third of the year with some timely offensive adjustments.


My biggest question is how diverse this passing offense will get, not just in general playcalls, but in the types of reads it wants to give its quarterback. For example, this split-field scissors concept was something that Bailey threw multiple long touchdowns in last year.



Adding complexity is where you started to see more unpredictable outcomes for NC State. Below is a full-field read called HOSS, which was a Robert Anae play that State ran rarely last year.


It's a full field coverage read, which means that the coverage dictates where the quarterback will start. Pitt is aligned in a two-high structure. CJ reads the boundary safety at the snap, who works toward the middle of the field because Pitt is rotating to cover 3. Bailey doesn't catch on to the rotation and misses a touchdown on the opposite seam. That safety working toward the middle should clue him into that.
It's a full field coverage read, which means that the coverage dictates where the quarterback will start. Pitt is aligned in a two-high structure. CJ reads the boundary safety at the snap, who works toward the middle of the field because Pitt is rotating to cover 3. Bailey doesn't catch on to the rotation and misses a touchdown on the opposite seam. That safety working toward the middle should clue him into that.

Bailey threw a touchdown in a very similar situation against ECU. Below is another example of the good side. Georgia Tech is going to rotate to cover 3 from two high in a slightly different way, but CJ sees this and then also delivers a nicely layered throw when the safety doesn't rotate hard.


This is a good all-around play in a full-field read. Another example of the quarterback making a high level play. This more consistently is the next step.
This is a good all-around play in a full-field read. Another example of the quarterback making a high level play. This more consistently is the next step.


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